Currently being updated. Automatic reload in seconds.

2020 Electoral College

Bloomberg vs Trump - California [55 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-02-28 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-03-03 07:41 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Bloomberg vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Bloomberg Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Bloomberg Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBloombergTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-02-28 00:00

AtlasIntel

50.5%

25.1%

Bloomberg
by 25.4%

2020-02-24
2020-03-02

2020-03-02
2020-03-03 07:41

2020-02-27 12:00

YouGov

51.0%

32.0%

Bloomberg
by 19.0%

2020-02-26
2020-02-28

2020-03-02
2020-03-03 07:11

2020-02-24 12:00

CNN

55.0%

35.0%

Bloomberg
by 20.0%

2020-02-22
2020-02-26

2020-02-28
2020-02-29 00:09

2020-02-23 00:00

UC Berkeley

54.2%

29.9%

Bloomberg
by 24.3%

2020-02-20
2020-02-25

2020-02-28
2020-02-28 23:33

2020-02-15 00:00

SurveyUSA

59.0%

34.0%

Bloomberg
by 25.0%

2020-02-13
2020-02-16

2020-02-19
2020-02-19 23:32

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBloombergTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-02-08 12:00

YouGov

56.6%

30.5%

Bloomberg
by 26.1%

2020-02-01
2020-02-15

2020-02-19
2020-02-21 14:30

2020-01-15 12:00

SurveyUSA

56.0%

36.0%

Bloomberg
by 20.0%

2020-01-14
2020-01-16

2020-01-21
2020-01-22 05:20

2019-11-21 12:00

SurveyUSA

50.0%

34.0%

Bloomberg
by 16.0%

2019-11-20
2019-11-22

2019-11-27
2019-11-28 17:39

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

61.7%

31.6%

DEM
by 30.1%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 04:52

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

60.2%

37.1%

DEM
by 23.1%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-21 23:09

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

61.0%

37.0%

DEM
by 24.1%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:41

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

54.3%

44.4%

DEM
by 10.0%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-13 23:30

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

53.5%

41.7%

DEM
by 11.8%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-05 07:42

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

51.1%

38.2%

DEM
by 12.9%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:15

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

46.0%

32.6%

DEM
by 13.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:08

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

47.6%

51.1%

REP
by 3.6%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 04:02

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

41.3%

57.5%

REP
by 16.2%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:01

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

35.9%

52.7%

REP
by 16.8%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:16

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Tip Jar.

 

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

Page cached at 2024-10-28 20:03:24 UTC

Original calculation time was 24.172 seconds

 

Page displayed at 2024-11-09 19:06:26 UTC

Page generated in 0.153 seconds