2024 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Iowa [6 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-09-08 12:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2023-09-12 23:36 UTC
Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Biden vs DeSantis Biden vs Youngkin Biden vs Pence Harris vs Trump Biden vs Christie || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-09-08 12:00
Emerson w/3P [2]
34.5%
47.5%
Trump
2023-09-07
2023-09-12
2023-09-08 12:00
Emerson [2]
39.2%
50.0%
Trump
2023-09-07
2023-09-12
2023-08-19 12:00
HarrisX
41.0%
47.0%
Trump
2023-08-17
2023-08-22
2023-05-21 00:00
Emerson
38.4%
48.8%
Trump
2023-05-19
2023-05-25
2023-04-04 00:00
Cygnal Definitely [2]
29.3%
32.6%
Trump
2023-04-03
2023-04-10
2023-04-04 00:00
Cygnal Total [2]
40.4%
46.4%
Trump
2023-04-03
2023-04-10
2022-10-03 12:00
Emerson
38.8%
47.0%
Trump
2022-10-02
2022-10-07
2022-10-03 12:00
Cygnal
40.8%
51.0%
Trump
2022-10-02
2022-10-06
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2022-07-14 00:00
Cygnal Total [2]
34.5%
41.5%
Trump
2022-07-13
2022-07-22
2022-07-14 00:00
Cygnal Definitely [2]
39.7%
51.1%
Trump
2022-07-13
2022-07-22
2022-02-21 12:00
Cygnal Definitely [2]
34.0%
46.6%
Trump
2022-02-20
2022-03-01
2022-02-21 12:00
Cygnal Total [2]
38.4%
52.5%
Trump
2022-02-20
2022-03-01
2021-11-09 00:00
Selzer
40.0%
51.0%
Trump
2021-11-07
2021-11-13
2021-10-19 00:00
Cygnal Definitely [2]
22.3%
47.1%
Trump
2021-10-18
2021-10-25
2021-10-19 00:00
Cygnal Total [2]
40.5%
54.1%
Trump
2021-10-18
2021-10-25
2020-11-03 12:00
Election2020
44.9%
53.1%
REP
2020-11-03
2020-11-03
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
41.7%
51.2%
REP
2016-11-08
2016-11-08
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
52.0%
46.2%
DEM
2012-11-06
2012-11-06
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
53.9%
44.4%
DEM
2008-11-04
2008-11-04
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
49.2%
49.9%
REP
2004-11-02
2004-11-02
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
48.5%
48.2%
DEM
2000-11-07
2000-11-07
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
50.3%
39.9%
DEM
1996-11-06
1996-11-06
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
43.3%
37.3%
DEM
1992-11-03
1992-11-03
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
54.7%
44.5%
DEM
1988-11-08
1988-11-08
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
45.9%
53.3%
REP
1984-11-06
1984-11-06
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
38.6%
51.3%
REP
1980-11-04
1980-11-04
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024 ".
For more information, read the FAQ .
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