2024 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Iowa [6 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-09-08 12:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2023-09-12 23:36 UTC
Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Biden vs DeSantis Biden vs Youngkin Biden vs Pence Harris vs Trump Biden vs Christie || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-09-08 12:00
Emerson w/3P [2]
34.5%
47.5%
Trump by 13.0%
2023-09-07 2023-09-09
2023-09-12 2023-09-12 23:36
2023-09-08 12:00
Emerson [2]
39.2%
50.0%
Trump by 10.8%
2023-09-07 2023-09-09
2023-09-12 2023-09-12 23:29
2023-08-19 12:00
HarrisX
41.0%
47.0%
Trump by 6.0%
2023-08-17 2023-08-21
2023-08-22 2023-08-24 01:16
2023-05-21 00:00
Emerson
38.4%
48.8%
Trump by 10.4%
2023-05-19 2023-05-22
2023-05-25 2023-05-26 18:13
2023-04-04 00:00
Cygnal Definitely [2]
29.3%
32.6%
Trump by 3.3%
2023-04-03 2023-04-04
2023-04-10 2023-08-05 02:27
2023-04-04 00:00
Cygnal Total [2]
40.4%
46.4%
Trump by 6.0%
2023-04-03 2023-04-04
2023-04-10 2023-04-10 17:48
2022-10-03 12:00
Emerson
38.8%
47.0%
Trump by 8.2%
2022-10-02 2022-10-04
2022-10-07 2023-03-23 03:17
2022-10-03 12:00
Cygnal
40.8%
51.0%
Trump by 10.2%
2022-10-02 2022-10-04
2022-10-06 2023-03-23 03:07
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2022-07-14 00:00
Cygnal Total [2]
34.5%
41.5%
Trump by 7.0%
2022-07-13 2022-07-14
2022-07-22 2023-07-14 07:31
2022-07-14 00:00
Cygnal Definitely [2]
39.7%
51.1%
Trump by 11.4%
2022-07-13 2022-07-14
2022-07-22 2023-03-21 01:50
2022-02-21 12:00
Cygnal Definitely [2]
34.0%
46.6%
Trump by 12.6%
2022-02-20 2022-02-22
2022-03-01 2023-07-11 01:08
2022-02-21 12:00
Cygnal Total [2]
38.4%
52.5%
Trump by 14.1%
2022-02-20 2022-02-22
2022-03-01 2023-03-20 14:26
2021-11-09 00:00
Selzer
40.0%
51.0%
Trump by 11.0%
2021-11-07 2021-11-10
2021-11-13 2023-03-20 12:57
2021-10-19 00:00
Cygnal Definitely [2]
22.3%
47.1%
Trump by 24.8%
2021-10-18 2021-10-19
2021-10-25 2023-07-11 01:14
2021-10-19 00:00
Cygnal Total [2]
40.5%
54.1%
Trump by 13.6%
2021-10-18 2021-10-19
2021-10-25 2023-03-20 09:54
2020-11-03 12:00
Election2020
44.9%
53.1%
REP by 8.2%
2020-11-03 2020-11-03
2020-11-03 2023-03-15 06:08
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
41.7%
51.2%
REP by 9.4%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-18 06:51
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
52.0%
46.2%
DEM by 5.8%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:28
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
53.9%
44.4%
DEM by 9.5%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-25 05:55
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
49.2%
49.9%
REP by 0.7%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 05:57
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
48.5%
48.2%
DEM by 0.3%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 09:29
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
50.3%
39.9%
DEM by 10.3%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 09:06
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
43.3%
37.3%
DEM by 6.0%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:29
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
54.7%
44.5%
DEM by 10.2%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 08:28
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
45.9%
53.3%
REP by 7.4%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:38
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
38.6%
51.3%
REP by 12.7%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:37
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024 ".
For more information, read the FAQ .
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