2024 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Florida [30 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-06-29 12:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2023-07-27 02:54 UTC
Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Biden vs DeSantis Biden vs Pence Harris vs Trump Biden vs Youngkin Biden vs Christie || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-06-29 12:00
FAU
39.0%
49.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2023-06-27 2023-07-01
2023-07-10 2023-07-11 00:48
2023-03-17 12:00
MRS
43.0%
47.0%
Trump by 4.0%
2023-03-15 2023-03-19
2023-03-19 2023-03-25 07:13
2023-03-14 12:00
Emerson
44.2%
43.5%
Biden by 0.7%
2023-03-13 2023-03-15
2023-03-17 2023-03-25 06:58
2023-03-02 12:00
UNF
43.0%
50.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2023-02-25 2023-03-07
2023-03-09 2023-03-25 03:52
2022-11-17 00:00
Victory w/Lean [2]
51.0%
49.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2022-11-16 2022-11-17
2022-11-21 2023-03-24 05:17
2022-11-17 00:00
Victory [2]
48.3%
42.8%
Biden by 5.5%
2022-11-16 2022-11-17
2022-11-21 2023-03-24 05:13
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2022-11-09 00:00
Rasmussen
40.0%
49.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2022-11-08 2022-11-09
2022-12-02 2023-03-24 06:50
2022-10-14 12:00
FAU
41.4%
45.1%
Trump by 3.7%
2022-10-12 2022-10-16
2022-10-21 2023-03-23 04:51
2022-09-17 00:00
Suffolk
44.4%
46.6%
Trump by 2.2%
2022-09-15 2022-09-18
2022-09-21 2023-03-23 01:37
2022-09-04 00:00
Echelon Definitely [2]
32.0%
39.0%
Trump by 7.0%
2022-08-31 2022-09-07
2022-09-13 2023-07-27 02:54
2022-09-04 00:00
Echelon Total [2]
41.0%
49.0%
Trump by 8.0%
2022-08-31 2022-09-07
2022-09-13 2023-03-22 00:47
2022-01-28 00:00
Suffolk
44.0%
47.0%
Trump by 3.0%
2022-01-26 2022-01-29
2022-02-01 2023-03-20 14:00
2021-09-17 12:00
Victory
51.2%
48.8%
Biden by 2.4%
2021-09-16 2021-09-18
2021-10-12 2023-03-20 09:11
2021-08-17 00:00
St Pete Unweighted [2]
47.9%
47.5%
Biden by 0.4%
2021-08-16 2021-08-17
2021-08-17 2023-07-07 18:33
2021-08-17 00:00
St Pete Weighted [2]
48.0%
47.4%
Biden by 0.6%
2021-08-16 2021-08-17
2021-08-17 2023-03-20 07:22
2021-08-07 12:00
Susquehanna
50.0%
42.0%
Biden by 8.0%
2021-08-04 2021-08-10
2021-08-23 2023-03-20 07:28
2020-11-03 12:00
Election2020
47.9%
51.2%
REP by 3.4%
2020-11-03 2020-11-03
2020-11-03 2023-03-15 02:35
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
47.8%
49.0%
REP by 1.2%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-18 06:21
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
50.0%
49.1%
DEM by 0.9%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:08
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
51.0%
48.2%
DEM by 2.8%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-09-22 10:48
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
47.1%
52.1%
REP by 5.0%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 01:26
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
48.8%
48.9%
REP by 0.0%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-09 05:52
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
48.0%
42.3%
DEM by 5.7%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:31
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
39.0%
40.9%
REP by 1.9%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:16
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
38.5%
60.9%
REP by 22.4%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 05:14
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
34.7%
65.3%
REP by 30.7%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:24
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
38.5%
55.5%
REP by 17.0%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:24
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024 ".
For more information, read the FAQ .
Page cached at 2023-09-27 20:33:01 UTC
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