2024 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - Arizona [11 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-11-04 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-11-05 06:46 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 Arizona [11 EV] Poll Average

 

Harris Trump
 

 

2024 Arizona [11 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Harris Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Harris Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-11-04 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

46.5%

1.9%

51.6%

Trump
by 5.1%

2024-11-03
2024-11-04

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 03:29

2024-11-04 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

45.9%

3.1%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.1%

2024-11-03
2024-11-04

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 03:26

2024-11-03 00:00

Victory Insights

48.4%

2.4%

49.2%

Trump
by 0.8%

2024-11-02
2024-11-03

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 20:45

2024-11-02 12:00

Trafalgar

47.1%

3.7%

49.2%

Trump
by 2.1%

2024-11-01
2024-11-03

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 06:46

2024-11-02 12:00

Patriot Polling

47.6%

1.3%

51.1%

Trump
by 3.5%

2024-11-01
2024-11-03

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 19:44

2024-11-02 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

46.0%

5.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-11-01
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-04 02:49

2024-11-02 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

45.8%

1.9%

52.3%

Trump
by 6.5%

2024-11-01
2024-11-02

2024-11-02
2024-11-03 08:19

2024-11-02 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

45.1%

3.0%

51.9%

Trump
by 6.8%

2024-11-01
2024-11-02

2024-11-02
2024-11-03 08:17

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-11-01 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

48.7%

0.5%

50.8%

Trump
by 2.1%

2024-10-30
2024-11-02

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 17:33

2024-11-01 00:00

Emerson [2]

48.3%

1.4%

50.3%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-30
2024-11-02

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 17:31

2024-10-31 00:00

SoCal

48.7%

1.8%

49.5%

Trump
by 0.8%

2024-10-30
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-01 22:38

2024-10-31 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

46.8%

2.2%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.2%

2024-10-30
2024-10-31

2024-10-31
2024-11-01 17:30

2024-10-31 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

45.9%

3.3%

50.8%

Trump
by 4.9%

2024-10-30
2024-10-31

2024-10-31
2024-11-01 17:27

2024-10-30 12:00

OnMessage

47.0%

3.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-29
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 10:13

2024-10-30 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-28
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 00:12

2024-10-29 12:00

Siena RV wo/Lean w/4P [5]

41.0%

15.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-25
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 16:47

2024-10-29 12:00

Siena RV Combined w/4P [5]

42.0%

11.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-25
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 16:45

2024-10-29 12:00

Siena RV [5]

44.0%

8.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-25
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 16:41

2024-10-29 12:00

Siena LV w/4P [5]

44.0%

8.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-25
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 16:39

2024-10-29 12:00

Siena LV [5]

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-25
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 16:37

2024-10-29 12:00

Noble Predictive Insights Pushed w/4P [2]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-28
2024-10-30

2024-10-31
2024-11-01 22:33

2024-10-29 12:00

Noble Predictive Insights w/4P [2]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-28
2024-10-30

2024-10-31
2024-11-01 22:29

2024-10-29 00:00

Mitchell w/4P [2]

48.0%

2.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-28
2024-10-29

2024-11-02
2024-11-03 08:11

2024-10-29 00:00

Mitchell [2]

48.0%

2.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-28
2024-10-29

2024-11-02
2024-11-03 08:09

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov LV [4]

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 08:14

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov RV [4]

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 08:12

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov LV w/4P [4]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 08:10

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov RV w/4P [4]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 08:08

2024-10-28 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-30

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 07:38

2024-10-27 12:00

Rasmussen

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-29

2024-10-31
2024-10-31 18:21

2024-10-27 12:00

AtlasIntel [2]

47.3%

1.9%

50.8%

Trump
by 3.5%

2024-10-25
2024-10-29

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 22:44

2024-10-27 12:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

46.4%

3.0%

50.6%

Trump
by 4.2%

2024-10-25
2024-10-29

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 22:42

2024-10-27 12:00

Data Orbital w/4P

41.9%

8.4%

49.7%

Trump
by 7.8%

2024-10-26
2024-10-28

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 19:56

2024-10-26 12:00

RABA Research

45.0%

12.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-27

2024-10-30
2024-10-30 16:56

2024-10-26 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-27

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 18:17

2024-10-26 00:00

Morning Consult

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-10-21
2024-10-30

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 18:43

2024-10-25 12:00

JL Partners

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-26

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 02:57

2024-10-25 12:00

Trafalgar

46.0%

5.9%

48.1%

Trump
by 2.1%

2024-10-24
2024-10-26

2024-10-27
2024-10-28 04:50

2024-10-24 00:00

SSRS w/4P

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-21
2024-10-26

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 17:55

2024-10-23 12:00

Democracy Institute

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-22
2024-10-24

2024-10-25
2024-10-28 04:29

2024-10-21 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-20
2024-10-22

2024-10-25
2024-10-25 18:19

2024-10-20 12:00

ActiVote

49.1%

0.0%

50.9%

Trump
by 1.8%

2024-10-08
2024-11-01

2024-11-02
2024-11-02 17:02

2024-10-20 00:00

Marist RV [2]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-10-17
2024-10-22

2024-10-24
2024-10-24 07:18

2024-10-20 00:00

Marist LV [2]

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-17
2024-10-22

2024-10-24
2024-10-24 07:16

2024-10-20 00:00

HighGround Total [2]

46.2%

7.0%

46.8%

Trump
by 0.6%

2024-10-19
2024-10-20

2024-10-22
2024-10-23 16:06

2024-10-20 00:00

HighGround Definitely [2]

44.2%

12.3%

43.5%

Harris
by 0.7%

2024-10-19
2024-10-20

2024-10-22
2024-10-23 16:03

2024-10-20 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

47.0%

3.5%

49.5%

Trump
by 2.5%

2024-10-19
2024-10-20

2024-10-22
2024-10-22 17:24

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 04:51

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 04:49

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 04:47

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 04:44

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData LV w/4P [3]

47.6%

3.6%

48.8%

Trump
by 1.2%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 21:01

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData RV w/4P [3]

49.2%

4.1%

46.7%

Harris
by 2.5%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 20:59

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData A w/4P [3]

48.5%

5.0%

46.5%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 20:55

2024-10-17 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

46.0%

5.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-18

2024-10-21
2024-10-21 19:04

2024-10-16 12:00

TrueDot

46.2%

8.4%

45.5%

Harris
by 0.7%

2024-10-12
2024-10-20

2024-10-25
2024-10-29 17:42

2024-10-15 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

49.3%

1.5%

49.2%

Harris
by 0.1%

2024-10-12
2024-10-17

2024-10-20
2024-10-20 18:44

2024-10-15 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

48.6%

2.2%

49.2%

Trump
by 0.6%

2024-10-12
2024-10-17

2024-10-20
2024-10-20 18:42

2024-10-14 00:00

YouGov

48.0%

1.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-11
2024-10-16

2024-10-17
2024-10-18 15:53

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES LV [2]

47.0%

2.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:16

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES All [2]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:15

2024-10-13 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-12
2024-10-14

2024-10-16
2024-10-17 05:17

2024-10-12 00:00

Trafalgar

46.0%

6.5%

47.5%

Trump
by 1.5%

2024-10-10
2024-10-13

2024-10-14
2024-10-15 01:08

2024-10-11 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-06
2024-10-15

2024-10-17
2024-10-18 15:52

2024-10-09 00:00

Siena RV wo/Lean w/6P [5]

43.0%

9.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-10

2024-10-12
2024-10-12 17:17

2024-10-09 00:00

Siena RV Combined w/6P [5]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-10

2024-10-12
2024-10-12 17:15

2024-10-09 00:00

Siena RV [5]

45.0%

4.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-10

2024-10-12
2024-10-12 17:13

2024-10-09 00:00

Siena LV Combined w/6P [5]

45.0%

5.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-10

2024-10-12
2024-10-12 17:11

2024-10-09 00:00

Siena LV [5]

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-10

2024-10-12
2024-10-12 17:09

2024-10-08 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-10-08
2024-10-08

2024-10-08
2024-10-15 01:30

2024-10-08 00:00

Washington Post LV [2]

46.0%

5.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-30
2024-10-15

2024-10-21
2024-10-21 13:38

2024-10-08 00:00

Washington Post RV [2]

44.0%

6.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-09-30
2024-10-15

2024-10-21
2024-10-21 13:34

2024-10-08 00:00

Fabrizio McLaughlin

46.0%

5.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-06
2024-10-09

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 18:06

2024-10-07 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

48.2%

1.3%

50.5%

Trump
by 2.3%

2024-10-05
2024-10-08

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 15:33

2024-10-07 00:00

Emerson [2]

47.2%

3.4%

49.4%

Trump
by 2.2%

2024-10-05
2024-10-08

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 15:29

2024-10-06 12:00

SoCal Strategies

48.7%

3.5%

47.8%

Harris
by 0.9%

2024-10-05
2024-10-07

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 16:59

2024-10-03 12:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [3]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-28
2024-10-08

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 16:27

2024-10-03 12:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [3]

43.0%

16.0%

41.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-28
2024-10-08

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 16:25

2024-10-03 12:00

Fabrizio Lee w/6P [3]

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-28
2024-10-08

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 16:19

2024-10-01 12:00

RMG Research w/Lean [2]

46.0%

4.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-30
2024-10-02

2024-10-07
2024-10-08 05:55

2024-10-01 12:00

RMG Research [2]

46.0%

4.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-30
2024-10-02

2024-10-07
2024-10-08 05:52

2024-09-30 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-27
2024-10-02

2024-10-07
2024-10-08 03:02

2024-09-30 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-29
2024-09-30

2024-10-01
2024-10-01 22:53

2024-09-28 12:00

OnMessage

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-24
2024-10-02

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 17:47

2024-09-28 00:00

Fabrizio Ward [2]

48.0%

2.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-24
2024-10-01

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 20:50

2024-09-28 00:00

Fabrizio Ward w/4P [2]

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-24
2024-10-01

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 20:48

2024-09-28 00:00

Highground Total [2]

47.6%

7.0%

45.4%

Harris
by 2.2%

2024-09-26
2024-09-29

2024-10-02
2024-10-03 03:44

2024-09-28 00:00

Highground Definitely [2]

45.0%

14.0%

41.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-09-26
2024-09-29

2024-10-02
2024-10-03 03:41

2024-09-28 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

47.6%

0.7%

51.7%

Trump
by 4.1%

2024-09-27
2024-09-28

2024-10-01
2024-10-02 00:19

2024-09-28 00:00

Emerson [2]

47.2%

2.8%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.8%

2024-09-27
2024-09-28

2024-10-01
2024-10-02 00:18

2024-09-27 12:00

National Research w/4P

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-25
2024-09-29

2024-10-02
2024-10-08 17:05

2024-09-26 12:00

Global Strategy Group [3]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-23
2024-09-29

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 01:37

2024-09-26 12:00

Global Strategy Group w/Lean w/6P [3]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-09-23
2024-09-29

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 01:35

2024-09-26 12:00

Global Strategy Group w/6P [3]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-09-23
2024-09-29

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 01:32

2024-09-23 00:00

AtlasIntel w/3P [2]

48.6%

1.7%

49.7%

Trump
by 1.1%

2024-09-20
2024-09-25

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 05:29

2024-09-23 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

48.6%

1.6%

49.8%

Trump
by 1.2%

2024-09-20
2024-09-25

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 05:27

2024-09-22 12:00

ActiVote

49.3%

0.0%

50.7%

Trump
by 1.4%

2024-09-06
2024-10-08

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 02:39

2024-09-22 12:00

BSG/GS [2]

50.0%

2.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-10-02
2024-10-02 15:21

2024-09-22 12:00

BSG/GS w/3P [2]

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-10-02
2024-10-02 15:17

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 06:56

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 06:54

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 06:51

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 06:45

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw RV [4]

48.0%

2.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 06:24

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw LV [4]

48.0%

1.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 06:18

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw RV w/5P [4]

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 06:13

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw LV w/5P [4]

47.0%

3.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 06:09

2024-09-22 00:00

Suffolk

42.0%

10.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-24

2024-09-27
2024-09-27 17:40

2024-09-22 00:00

Marist RV [2]

48.0%

2.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-26 15:24

2024-09-22 00:00

Marist LV [2]

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-26 15:22

2024-09-21 00:00

Rasmussen

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-22

2024-09-26
2024-09-26 15:26

2024-09-19 12:00

Siena RV wo/Lean w/6P [5]

41.0%

14.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-21

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:02

2024-09-19 12:00

Siena RV Combined w/6P [5]

42.0%

11.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-21

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:00

2024-09-19 12:00

Siena RV [5]

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-21

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 16:58

2024-09-19 12:00

Siena LV w/6P [5]

44.0%

8.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-21

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 16:55

2024-09-19 12:00

Siena LV [5]

45.0%

5.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-21

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 16:53

2024-09-18 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-09-16
2024-09-19

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:41

2024-09-17 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

48.7%

1.5%

49.8%

Trump
by 1.1%

2024-09-15
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 18:44

2024-09-17 00:00

Emerson [2]

48.3%

2.7%

49.0%

Trump
by 0.7%

2024-09-15
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 18:41

2024-09-15 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-15
2024-09-15

2024-10-08
2024-10-15 01:28

2024-09-14 00:00

Morning Consult

48.4%

4.3%

47.4%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-09
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-20 04:47

2024-09-12 00:00

Trafalgar

45.5%

7.4%

47.1%

Trump
by 1.6%

2024-09-11
2024-09-12

2024-09-14
2024-09-15 03:55

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData A w/4P [5]

50.8%

3.2%

46.0%

Harris
by 4.8%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 02:42

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData RV w/4P [5]

50.8%

2.8%

46.4%

Harris
by 4.4%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 02:38

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV [5]

50.7%

0.0%

49.3%

Harris
by 1.4%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 02:28

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV w/Squeeze w/4P [5]

49.8%

2.0%

48.2%

Harris
by 1.6%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 02:26

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV w/4P [5]

47.9%

6.4%

45.7%

Harris
by 2.2%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 02:23

2024-09-08 12:00

Data Orbital

46.0%

7.8%

46.2%

Trump
by 0.2%

2024-09-07
2024-09-09

2024-09-17
2024-09-17 20:37

2024-09-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-06
2024-09-09

2024-09-10
2024-09-11 00:50

2024-09-04 12:00

TIPP Insights LV w/4P [4]

46.7%

6.7%

46.6%

Harris
by 0.1%

2024-09-03
2024-09-05

2024-09-08
2024-09-08 18:15

2024-09-04 12:00

TIPP Insights RV w/4P [4]

45.8%

8.4%

45.8%

TIED

2024-09-03
2024-09-05

2024-09-08
2024-09-08 18:13

2024-09-04 12:00

TIPP Insights LV [4]

46.8%

6.5%

46.7%

Harris
by 0.1%

2024-09-03
2024-09-05

2024-09-08
2024-09-08 18:07

2024-09-04 12:00

TIPP Insights RV [4]

46.0%

8.1%

45.9%

Harris
by 0.1%

2024-09-03
2024-09-05

2024-09-08
2024-09-08 18:04

2024-09-04 00:00

Morning Consult

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-08-30
2024-09-08

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 04:00

2024-09-02 12:00

Patriot Polling

46.9%

4.6%

48.5%

Trump
by 1.6%

2024-09-01
2024-09-03

2024-09-05
2024-09-06 06:27

2024-08-30 12:00

InsiderAdvantage

48.4%

3.0%

48.6%

Trump
by 0.2%

2024-08-29
2024-08-31

2024-08-31
2024-08-31 20:04

2024-08-30 00:00

TrueDot

41.8%

12.5%

45.8%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-08-28
2024-08-31

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 17:38

2024-08-29 00:00

YouGov

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-08-23
2024-09-03

2024-09-05
2024-09-06 06:07

2024-08-27 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

45.0%

9.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-30
2024-08-30 17:40

2024-08-27 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

47.5%

1.3%

51.2%

Trump
by 3.7%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 15:47

2024-08-27 00:00

Emerson [2]

47.3%

2.3%

50.4%

Trump
by 3.1%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 15:40

2024-08-26 12:00

SSRS w/4P

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-29

2024-09-04
2024-09-04 21:28

2024-08-25 12:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-08-23
2024-08-27

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 02:27

2024-08-25 12:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-27

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 02:23

2024-08-25 12:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-08-23
2024-08-27

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 02:21

2024-08-25 12:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-27

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 02:18

2024-08-25 00:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

50.0%

1.0%

49.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-28
2024-08-28 23:30

2024-08-25 00:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-28
2024-08-28 23:27

2024-08-17 12:00

Spry w/4P [2]

46.1%

7.5%

46.4%

Trump
by 0.3%

2024-08-14
2024-08-20

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 06:03

2024-08-17 12:00

Spry [2]

47.6%

3.7%

48.7%

Trump
by 1.1%

2024-08-14
2024-08-20

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 05:56

2024-08-15 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

46.0%

4.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-08-15
2024-08-15

2024-10-08
2024-10-15 01:25

2024-08-15 12:00

Rasmussen w/6P [2]

44.0%

11.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-13
2024-08-17

2024-08-27
2024-09-04 02:24

2024-08-15 12:00

Rasmussen [2]

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-08-13
2024-08-17

2024-08-27
2024-09-04 02:21

2024-08-14 12:00

Public Opinion Pulse w/5P [2]

43.0%

13.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-12
2024-08-16

2024-08-27
2024-08-27 15:19

2024-08-14 12:00

Public Opinion Pulse [2]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-08-12
2024-08-16

2024-08-27
2024-08-27 15:15

2024-08-14 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

43.0%

13.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-12
2024-08-15

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 18:54

2024-08-12 00:00

Siena LV w/6P [4]

47.0%

10.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-08
2024-08-15

2024-08-17
2024-08-17 16:13

2024-08-12 00:00

Siena LV [4]

50.0%

5.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-08-08
2024-08-15

2024-08-17
2024-08-17 16:07

2024-08-12 00:00

Siena RV w/6P [4]

45.0%

13.0%

42.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-08
2024-08-15

2024-08-17
2024-08-17 15:59

2024-08-12 00:00

Siena RV [4]

49.0%

6.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-08
2024-08-15

2024-08-17
2024-08-17 15:53

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata LV [4]

49.0%

0.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 20:36

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata AV w/5P [4]

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 20:34

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata RV w/5P [4]

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 20:32

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata LV w/5P [4]

45.0%

9.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 20:29

2024-08-11 00:00

Strategies 360 Definitely [2]

40.0%

24.0%

36.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-07
2024-08-14

2024-08-28
2024-08-28 15:41

2024-08-11 00:00

Strategies 360 Total [2]

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-07
2024-08-14

2024-08-28
2024-08-28 15:35

2024-08-07 12:00

Trafalgar

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-08

2024-08-09
2024-08-10 02:10

2024-08-04 12:00

Navigator [3]

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-08

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 20:18

2024-08-04 12:00

Navigator w/Lean w/6P [3]

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-07-31
2024-08-08

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 20:16

2024-08-04 12:00

Navigator wo/Lean w/6P [3]

44.0%

12.0%

44.0%

TIED

2024-07-31
2024-08-08

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 20:13

2024-08-03 00:00

Peak Insights w/3P

42.0%

14.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-05

2024-08-15
2024-08-15 18:37

2024-08-02 12:00

HighGround

44.4%

14.0%

41.6%

Harris
by 2.8%

2024-07-30
2024-08-05

2024-08-08
2024-08-08 17:27

2024-08-02 00:00

Iron Light w/3P

43.0%

14.0%

43.0%

TIED

2024-07-29
2024-08-05

2024-08-15
2024-08-15 18:19

2024-08-02 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

44.0%

13.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-03

2024-08-06
2024-08-06 16:37

2024-07-30 00:00

BSG/GS [2]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-07-26
2024-08-02

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 12:05

2024-07-30 00:00

BSG/GS w/3P [2]

46.0%

12.0%

42.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-07-26
2024-08-02

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 12:00

2024-07-30 00:00

PPP

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-29
2024-07-30

2024-07-31
2024-07-31 16:22

2024-07-26 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

43.0%

9.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-07-23
2024-07-29

2024-08-01
2024-08-01 14:44

2024-07-26 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-07-24
2024-07-28

2024-07-30
2024-07-30 21:13

2024-07-26 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

48.0%

8.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-07-24
2024-07-28

2024-07-30
2024-07-30 21:07

2024-07-23 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

43.0%

11.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-26 14:21

2024-07-23 00:00

Emerson w/6P [3]

39.8%

12.7%

47.5%

Trump
by 7.7%

2024-07-22
2024-07-23

2024-07-25
2024-07-25 14:26

2024-07-23 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

47.4%

0.0%

52.6%

Trump
by 5.2%

2024-07-22
2024-07-23

2024-07-25
2024-07-25 14:25

2024-07-23 00:00

Emerson [3]

43.6%

7.0%

49.4%

Trump
by 5.8%

2024-07-22
2024-07-23

2024-07-25
2024-07-25 14:23

2024-07-20 00:00

PPP w/4P

40.0%

14.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-07-19
2024-07-20

2024-07-21
2024-07-25 02:43

2024-07-16 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

42.0%

10.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-07-15
2024-07-16

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 08:22

2024-07-11 00:00

PPP

44.0%

4.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-07-10
2024-07-11

2024-07-22
2024-07-22 15:26

2024-05-10 12:00

Morning Consult

42.0%

7.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-05-08
2024-05-12

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 15:32

2024-02-18 00:00

Emerson

40.3%

12.1%

47.6%

Trump
by 7.3%

2024-02-16
2024-02-19

2024-02-22
2024-02-23 02:15

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV [2]

43.0%

9.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 18:21

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV [2]

43.0%

9.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 16:37

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

49.4%

1.6%

49.1%

DEM
by 0.3%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 01:11

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

45.1%

6.2%

48.7%

REP
by 3.5%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 04:43

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

44.6%

1.8%

53.7%

REP
by 9.1%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-21 23:07

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

45.1%

1.2%

53.6%

REP
by 8.5%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:38

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

44.4%

0.7%

54.9%

REP
by 10.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-13 23:27

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

44.7%

4.3%

51.0%

REP
by 6.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-05 07:10

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

46.5%

9.2%

44.3%

DEM
by 2.2%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 08:13

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

36.5%

25.0%

38.5%

REP
by 2.0%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:06

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

38.7%

1.3%

60.0%

REP
by 21.2%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 03:08

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

32.5%

1.0%

66.4%

REP
by 33.9%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 06:15

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

28.2%

11.2%

60.6%

REP
by 32.4%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:10

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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Read the Election Graphs blog posts.

 

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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