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2024 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - North Carolina [16 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-11-04 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-11-05 06:02 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 North Carolina [16 EV] Poll Average

 

Harris Trump
 

 

2024 North Carolina [16 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Harris Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Harris Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-11-04 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

47.9%

2.1%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.1%

2024-11-03
2024-11-04

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 06:02

2024-11-04 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

47.6%

2.6%

49.8%

Trump
by 2.2%

2024-11-03
2024-11-04

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 06:00

2024-11-02 12:00

Patriot Polling

48.9%

0.6%

50.5%

Trump
by 1.6%

2024-11-01
2024-11-03

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 19:40

2024-11-02 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-11-01
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-04 03:10

2024-11-02 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

47.1%

2.4%

50.5%

Trump
by 3.4%

2024-11-01
2024-11-02

2024-11-02
2024-11-03 08:47

2024-11-02 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

46.8%

2.8%

50.4%

Trump
by 3.6%

2024-11-01
2024-11-02

2024-11-02
2024-11-03 08:46

2024-11-01 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.3%

1.0%

49.7%

Trump
by 0.4%

2024-10-30
2024-11-02

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 18:14

2024-11-01 00:00

Emerson [2]

48.3%

2.4%

49.3%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-30
2024-11-02

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 18:12

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-10-31 00:00

Siena RV wo/Lean w/5P [5]

46.0%

12.0%

42.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-10-28
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 17:59

2024-10-31 00:00

Siena RV Combined w/5P [5]

47.0%

10.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-10-28
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 17:57

2024-10-31 00:00

Siena RV [5]

48.0%

8.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-10-28
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 17:55

2024-10-31 00:00

Siena LV w/5P [5]

48.0%

7.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-10-28
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 17:53

2024-10-31 00:00

Siena LV [5]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-10-28
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 17:52

2024-10-31 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

47.0%

2.3%

50.7%

Trump
by 3.7%

2024-10-30
2024-10-31

2024-10-31
2024-11-01 18:10

2024-10-31 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

46.7%

2.6%

50.7%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-30
2024-10-31

2024-10-31
2024-11-01 18:05

2024-10-30 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-28
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 00:28

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov LV [4]

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 09:24

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov RV [4]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 09:22

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov LV w/4P [4]

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 09:20

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov RV w/4P [4]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 09:16

2024-10-28 00:00

Morning Consult

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-23
2024-11-01

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 18:50

2024-10-28 00:00

Rasmussen

47.0%

3.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-30

2024-11-01
2024-11-03 09:30

2024-10-27 12:00

AtlasIntel [2]

48.9%

2.7%

48.4%

Harris
by 0.5%

2024-10-25
2024-10-29

2024-10-29
2024-10-30 00:02

2024-10-27 12:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

48.5%

3.1%

48.4%

Harris
by 0.1%

2024-10-25
2024-10-29

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 23:59

2024-10-27 00:00

ECU w/5P

48.3%

1.4%

50.3%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-29

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 17:25

2024-10-27 00:00

Trafalgar

46.2%

4.4%

49.4%

Trump
by 3.2%

2024-10-25
2024-10-28

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 18:13

2024-10-26 12:00

Beacon/Shaw RV [4]

50.0%

1.0%

49.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-28

2024-10-30
2024-10-31 07:14

2024-10-26 12:00

Beacon/Shaw LV [4]

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-28

2024-10-30
2024-10-31 07:12

2024-10-26 12:00

Beacon/Shaw RV w/5P [4]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-28

2024-10-30
2024-10-31 07:09

2024-10-26 12:00

Beacon/Shaw LV w/5P [4]

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-28

2024-10-30
2024-10-31 07:03

2024-10-26 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-27

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 18:28

2024-10-26 00:00

SSRS w/6P

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-23
2024-10-28

2024-10-31
2024-10-31 18:29

2024-10-26 00:00

SurveyUSA

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-10-23
2024-10-28

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 18:09

2024-10-25 12:00

ActiVote

49.4%

0.0%

50.6%

Trump
by 1.2%

2024-10-17
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 18:55

2024-10-22 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

48.2%

1.6%

50.2%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-21
2024-10-22

2024-10-24
2024-10-24 16:55

2024-10-22 00:00

Emerson [2]

47.9%

2.5%

49.6%

Trump
by 1.7%

2024-10-21
2024-10-22

2024-10-24
2024-10-24 16:53

2024-10-21 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-20
2024-10-22

2024-10-25
2024-10-25 18:38

2024-10-21 00:00

SoCal

46.3%

5.0%

48.7%

Trump
by 2.4%

2024-10-20
2024-10-21

2024-10-23
2024-10-23 17:20

2024-10-20 00:00

YouGov w/6P

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-23

2024-10-31
2024-10-31 18:37

2024-10-20 00:00

Marist RV [2]

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-17
2024-10-22

2024-10-24
2024-10-24 07:12

2024-10-20 00:00

Marist LV [2]

48.0%

2.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-17
2024-10-22

2024-10-24
2024-10-24 07:08

2024-10-20 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

46.8%

4.5%

48.7%

Trump
by 1.9%

2024-10-19
2024-10-20

2024-10-22
2024-10-23 16:28

2024-10-19 00:00

SurveyUSA

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-17
2024-10-20

2024-10-21
2024-10-23 16:14

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

48.0%

2.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 06:30

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 06:27

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

47.0%

3.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 06:25

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

46.0%

5.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 06:23

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData LV w/4P [3]

48.1%

3.7%

48.2%

Trump
by 0.1%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 02:00

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData RV w/4P [3]

49.6%

4.1%

46.3%

Harris
by 3.3%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 01:54

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData A w/4P [3]

48.4%

5.5%

46.1%

Harris
by 2.3%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 01:52

2024-10-17 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

45.0%

7.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-18

2024-10-21
2024-10-21 19:24

2024-10-15 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

50.5%

0.7%

48.8%

Harris
by 1.7%

2024-10-12
2024-10-17

2024-10-20
2024-10-20 19:07

2024-10-15 00:00

AtlasIntel w/5P [2]

50.0%

1.0%

49.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-12
2024-10-17

2024-10-20
2024-10-20 19:04

2024-10-14 00:00

YouGov

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-10-10
2024-10-17

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 18:06

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES LV [2]

48.0%

2.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:44

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES All [2]

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:42

2024-10-13 12:00

Cygnal Total w/6P [2]

46.6%

6.2%

47.2%

Trump
by 0.6%

2024-10-12
2024-10-14

2024-10-17
2024-10-18 04:55

2024-10-13 12:00

Cygnal Definitely w/6P [2]

43.6%

11.6%

44.8%

Trump
by 1.2%

2024-10-12
2024-10-14

2024-10-17
2024-10-18 04:51

2024-10-13 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-12
2024-10-14

2024-10-16
2024-10-17 05:35

2024-10-12 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-10-10
2024-10-14

2024-10-16
2024-10-17 06:02

2024-10-12 12:00

Quinnipiac w/4P [2]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-10-10
2024-10-14

2024-10-16
2024-10-17 05:59

2024-10-12 00:00

Rasmussen

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-09
2024-10-14

2024-10-15
2024-10-17 06:12

2024-10-12 00:00

Trafalgar

44.6%

8.9%

46.5%

Trump
by 1.9%

2024-10-10
2024-10-13

2024-10-15
2024-10-16 07:44

2024-10-11 00:00

Morning Consult

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-06
2024-10-15

2024-10-17
2024-10-18 04:59

2024-10-08 00:00

Washington Post LV [2]

47.0%

3.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-30
2024-10-15

2024-10-21
2024-10-21 14:05

2024-10-08 00:00

Washington Post RV [2]

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-30
2024-10-15

2024-10-21
2024-10-21 14:03

2024-10-08 00:00

Fabrizio McLaughlin

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-06
2024-10-09

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 18:21

2024-10-07 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.0%

1.1%

49.9%

Trump
by 0.9%

2024-10-05
2024-10-08

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 15:51

2024-10-07 00:00

Emerson [2]

47.6%

3.1%

49.3%

Trump
by 1.7%

2024-10-05
2024-10-08

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 15:50

2024-10-03 12:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [3]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-09-28
2024-10-08

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 16:57

2024-10-03 12:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [3]

43.0%

14.0%

43.0%

TIED

2024-09-28
2024-10-08

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 16:55

2024-10-03 12:00

Fabrizio Lee w/6P [3]

45.0%

9.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-28
2024-10-08

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 16:54

2024-09-30 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-27
2024-10-02

2024-10-07
2024-10-08 03:34

2024-09-30 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-29
2024-09-30

2024-10-01
2024-10-01 23:15

2024-09-28 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.1%

1.0%

49.9%

Trump
by 0.8%

2024-09-27
2024-09-28

2024-10-01
2024-10-02 00:13

2024-09-28 00:00

Emerson [2]

48.0%

3.1%

48.9%

Trump
by 0.9%

2024-09-27
2024-09-28

2024-10-01
2024-10-02 00:07

2024-09-27 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-25
2024-09-29

2024-10-01
2024-10-02 00:53

2024-09-27 12:00

Quinnipiac w/6P [2]

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-25
2024-09-29

2024-10-01
2024-10-02 00:51

2024-09-27 12:00

Washington Post RV [2]

47.0%

3.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-25
2024-09-29

2024-10-01
2024-10-02 00:24

2024-09-27 12:00

Washington Post LV [2]

48.0%

2.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-25
2024-09-29

2024-10-01
2024-10-02 00:22

2024-09-26 12:00

Global Strategy Group [3]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-23
2024-09-29

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 02:14

2024-09-26 12:00

Global Strategy Group w/Lean w/6P [3]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-09-23
2024-09-29

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 02:11

2024-09-26 12:00

Global Strategy Group w/6P [3]

45.0%

9.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-23
2024-09-29

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 02:09

2024-09-26 12:00

RMG Research

47.0%

2.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-25
2024-09-27

2024-10-04
2024-10-04 16:26

2024-09-25 00:00

High Point LV [2]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-09-20
2024-09-29

2024-10-03
2024-10-04 06:07

2024-09-25 00:00

High Point RV [2]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-29

2024-10-03
2024-10-04 06:05

2024-09-25 00:00

ECU w/5P

47.1%

3.5%

49.4%

Trump
by 2.3%

2024-09-23
2024-09-26

2024-09-30
2024-09-30 15:59

2024-09-23 00:00

AtlasIntel w/5P [2]

50.8%

1.9%

47.3%

Harris
by 3.5%

2024-09-20
2024-09-25

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 05:21

2024-09-23 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

50.5%

1.4%

48.1%

Harris
by 2.4%

2024-09-20
2024-09-25

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 05:15

2024-09-23 00:00

SSRS w/5P

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-09-20
2024-09-25

2024-09-27
2024-09-27 20:58

2024-09-22 12:00

BSG/GS [2]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-10-02
2024-10-02 15:49

2024-09-22 12:00

BSG/GS w/4P [2]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-10-02
2024-10-02 15:46

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw RV [4]

50.0%

2.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-27
2024-09-28 16:53

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw LV [4]

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-27
2024-09-28 16:52

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw RV w/5P [4]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-27
2024-09-28 16:50

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw LV w/5P [4]

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-27
2024-09-28 16:48

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

50.0%

2.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 07:56

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 07:54

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 07:52

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 07:49

2024-09-22 00:00

ActiVote

50.8%

0.0%

49.2%

Harris
by 1.6%

2024-09-07
2024-10-06

2024-10-07
2024-10-08 06:02

2024-09-22 00:00

Marist RV [2]

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-26 15:43

2024-09-22 00:00

Marist LV [2]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-09-19
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-26 15:41

2024-09-22 00:00

Bullfinch w/G3P [2]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-23

2024-09-24
2024-09-26 06:02

2024-09-22 00:00

Bullfinch [2]

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-23

2024-09-24
2024-09-24 19:54

2024-09-21 00:00

Rasmussen

46.0%

5.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-22

2024-09-27
2024-09-27 20:32

2024-09-19 12:00

Meredith w/6P

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-09-18
2024-09-20

2024-09-27
2024-09-27 20:25

2024-09-19 12:00

Siena RV wo/Lean w/6P [5]

44.0%

11.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-21

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:29

2024-09-19 12:00

Siena RV Combined w/6P [5]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-09-17
2024-09-21

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:28

2024-09-19 12:00

Siena RV [5]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-21

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:23

2024-09-19 12:00

Siena LV w/6P [5]

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-21

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:21

2024-09-19 12:00

Siena LV [5]

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-21

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:19

2024-09-18 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-16
2024-09-19

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:54

2024-09-17 12:00

Victory Insights

44.9%

6.6%

48.5%

Trump
by 3.6%

2024-09-16
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 19:44

2024-09-17 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.7%

1.0%

49.3%

Harris
by 0.4%

2024-09-15
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 19:05

2024-09-17 00:00

Emerson [2]

49.1%

2.7%

48.2%

Harris
by 0.9%

2024-09-15
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 19:03

2024-09-16 00:00

Cygnal Definitely w/6P [2]

38.7%

18.2%

43.1%

Trump
by 4.4%

2024-09-15
2024-09-16

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 19:39

2024-09-16 00:00

Cygnal Total w/6P [2]

45.3%

9.1%

45.6%

Trump
by 0.3%

2024-09-15
2024-09-16

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 19:36

2024-09-14 12:00

Fabrizio Ward [2]

47.0%

3.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-11
2024-09-17

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 06:13

2024-09-14 12:00

Fabrizio Ward w/5P [2]

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-11
2024-09-17

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 06:11

2024-09-14 00:00

Morning Consult

49.3%

3.5%

47.2%

Harris
by 2.2%

2024-09-09
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-20 04:22

2024-09-12 12:00

TIPP Insights LV w/4P [4]

45.2%

6.9%

47.9%

Trump
by 2.7%

2024-09-11
2024-09-13

2024-09-14
2024-09-14 21:08

2024-09-12 12:00

TIPP Insights RV w/4P [4]

44.6%

9.0%

46.4%

Trump
by 1.8%

2024-09-11
2024-09-13

2024-09-14
2024-09-14 21:01

2024-09-12 12:00

TIPP Insights LV [4]

46.0%

5.4%

48.6%

Trump
by 2.6%

2024-09-11
2024-09-13

2024-09-14
2024-09-14 20:58

2024-09-12 12:00

TIPP Insights RV [4]

45.6%

7.4%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.4%

2024-09-11
2024-09-13

2024-09-14
2024-09-14 20:56

2024-09-12 00:00

Trafalgar

46.0%

5.6%

48.4%

Trump
by 2.4%

2024-09-11
2024-09-12

2024-09-13
2024-09-14 00:39

2024-09-12 00:00

Quantus

48.3%

1.7%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.7%

2024-09-11
2024-09-12

2024-09-13
2024-09-13 17:28

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData A w/4P [5]

48.2%

3.4%

48.4%

Trump
by 0.2%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 04:49

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData RV w/4P [5]

47.5%

3.3%

49.2%

Trump
by 1.7%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 04:47

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV [5]

47.1%

0.0%

52.9%

Trump
by 5.8%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 04:29

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV w/Squeeze w/4P [5]

45.8%

2.8%

51.4%

Trump
by 5.6%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 04:24

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV w/4P [5]

44.5%

6.2%

49.3%

Trump
by 4.8%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 04:21

2024-09-09 00:00

Elon University

46.0%

9.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-04
2024-09-13

2024-09-24
2024-09-24 15:52

2024-09-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton

45.0%

11.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-06
2024-09-09

2024-09-10
2024-09-11 01:13

2024-09-06 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-04
2024-09-08

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 07:18

2024-09-06 12:00

Quinnipiac w/6P [2]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-04
2024-09-08

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 07:15

2024-09-06 00:00

SurveyUSA

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-04
2024-09-07

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 07:24

2024-09-06 00:00

Mainstreet LV [2]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-05
2024-09-06

2024-09-09
2024-09-09 18:34

2024-09-06 00:00

Mainstreet RV [2]

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-05
2024-09-06

2024-09-09
2024-09-09 18:32

2024-09-04 00:00

Morning Consult

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-08-30
2024-09-08

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 07:30

2024-09-02 12:00

Patriot Polling

47.5%

2.5%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.5%

2024-09-01
2024-09-03

2024-09-05
2024-09-06 05:51

2024-08-30 12:00

InsiderAdvantage

48.4%

2.4%

49.2%

Trump
by 0.8%

2024-08-29
2024-08-31

2024-08-31
2024-08-31 19:50

2024-08-29 00:00

YouGov

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-23
2024-09-03

2024-09-05
2024-09-06 06:04

2024-08-27 12:00

ECU w/6P

46.9%

5.5%

47.6%

Trump
by 0.7%

2024-08-26
2024-08-28

2024-09-03
2024-09-03 18:11

2024-08-27 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

44.0%

11.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-30
2024-08-30 18:04

2024-08-27 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.0%

1.1%

49.9%

Trump
by 0.9%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 16:07

2024-08-27 00:00

Emerson [2]

48.1%

2.8%

49.1%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 16:05

2024-08-27 00:00

SoCal

46.0%

4.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-08-26
2024-08-27

2024-08-27
2024-08-27 19:49

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 05:15

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 05:13

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 05:10

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 05:08

2024-08-25 00:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-28
2024-08-28 23:44

2024-08-25 00:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-28
2024-08-28 23:42

2024-08-20 12:00

SurveyUSA CV [3]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-19
2024-08-21

2024-08-23
2024-08-23 15:50

2024-08-20 12:00

SurveyUSA LV [3]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-08-19
2024-08-21

2024-08-23
2024-08-23 15:48

2024-08-20 12:00

SurveyUSA RV [3]

46.0%

9.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-19
2024-08-21

2024-08-22
2024-08-22 20:18

2024-08-19 00:00

ActiVote

50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

TIED

2024-08-06
2024-08-31

2024-08-31
2024-08-31 19:48

2024-08-17 12:00

Spry w/4P [2]

46.5%

8.4%

45.1%

Harris
by 1.4%

2024-08-14
2024-08-20

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 06:14

2024-08-17 12:00

Spry [2]

47.2%

5.4%

47.4%

Trump
by 0.2%

2024-08-14
2024-08-20

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 06:12

2024-08-14 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-08-12
2024-08-15

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 19:22

2024-08-12 00:00

Siena LV w/6P [4]

46.0%

10.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-09
2024-08-14

2024-08-17
2024-08-17 17:05

2024-08-12 00:00

Siena LV [4]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-09
2024-08-14

2024-08-17
2024-08-17 17:00

2024-08-12 00:00

Siena RV w/6P [4]

45.0%

13.0%

42.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-09
2024-08-14

2024-08-17
2024-08-17 16:41

2024-08-12 00:00

Siena RV [4]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-09
2024-08-14

2024-08-17
2024-08-17 16:39

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata LV [4]

50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

TIED

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 21:36

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata AV w/5P [4]

47.0%

10.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 21:34

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata RV w/5P [4]

47.0%

9.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 21:31

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata LV w/5P [4]

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 21:28

2024-08-07 12:00

YouGov Blue wo/Lean w/6P [2]

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-08-05
2024-08-09

2024-08-11
2024-08-11 16:27

2024-08-07 12:00

YouGov Blue Total w/6P [2]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-08-05
2024-08-09

2024-08-11
2024-08-11 16:23

2024-08-07 12:00

Trafalgar

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-08

2024-08-09
2024-08-10 02:15

2024-08-05 00:00

Cygnal Definitely w/6P [2]

38.5%

19.6%

41.9%

Trump
by 3.4%

2024-08-04
2024-08-05

2024-08-09
2024-08-09 16:39

2024-08-05 00:00

Cygnal Total w/6P [2]

44.1%

8.7%

47.2%

Trump
by 3.1%

2024-08-04
2024-08-05

2024-08-09
2024-08-09 16:34

2024-08-04 12:00

Navigator [3]

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-08

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 20:30

2024-08-04 12:00

Navigator w/Lean w/6P [3]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-07-31
2024-08-08

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 20:29

2024-08-04 12:00

Navigator wo/Lean w/6P [3]

45.0%

9.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-08

2024-08-20
2024-08-20 20:26

2024-08-02 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

41.0%

15.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-03

2024-08-06
2024-08-06 16:58

2024-07-30 00:00

BSG/GS [2]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-07-26
2024-08-02

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 12:23

2024-07-30 00:00

BSG/GS w/3P [2]

46.0%

10.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-07-26
2024-08-02

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 12:21

2024-07-26 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-24
2024-07-28

2024-07-30
2024-07-30 21:49

2024-07-26 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

44.0%

11.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-07-24
2024-07-28

2024-07-30
2024-07-30 21:47

2024-07-23 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

43.0%

11.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-26 14:40

2024-07-20 00:00

PPP w/4P

44.0%

8.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-07-19
2024-07-20

2024-07-21
2024-07-25 03:29

2024-02-15 12:00

Emerson

40.7%

9.4%

49.9%

Trump
by 9.2%

2024-02-14
2024-02-16

2024-02-21
2024-02-22 02:49

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

48.6%

1.5%

49.9%

REP
by 1.3%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-16 16:21

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

46.2%

4.0%

49.8%

REP
by 3.7%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 04:10

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

48.4%

1.3%

50.4%

REP
by 2.0%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:03

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

49.7%

0.9%

49.4%

DEM
by 0.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:36

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

43.6%

0.4%

56.0%

REP
by 12.4%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:58

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

43.2%

0.8%

56.0%

REP
by 12.8%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:38

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

44.0%

7.2%

48.7%

REP
by 4.7%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 17:30

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

42.7%

13.9%

43.4%

REP
by 0.8%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:35

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

41.7%

0.3%

58.0%

REP
by 16.3%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:32

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

37.9%

0.2%

61.9%

REP
by 24.0%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:45

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

47.2%

3.5%

49.3%

REP
by 2.1%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:01

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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Read the Election Graphs blog posts.

 

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Donation Page.

 

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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