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2024 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - Georgia [16 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-11-04 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-11-05 04:57 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 Georgia [16 EV] Poll Average

 

Harris Trump
 

 

2024 Georgia [16 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Harris Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Harris Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-11-04 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

48.3%

1.8%

49.9%

Trump
by 1.6%

2024-11-03
2024-11-04

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 04:57

2024-11-04 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

48.2%

3.6%

48.2%

TIED

2024-11-03
2024-11-04

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 04:54

2024-11-03 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

47.7%

3.6%

48.7%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-11-02
2024-11-03

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 18:33

2024-11-02 12:00

Patriot Polling

48.6%

1.0%

50.4%

Trump
by 1.8%

2024-11-01
2024-11-03

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 19:42

2024-11-02 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

47.6%

2.3%

50.1%

Trump
by 2.5%

2024-11-01
2024-11-02

2024-11-02
2024-11-03 08:25

2024-11-02 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

46.8%

4.6%

48.6%

Trump
by 1.8%

2024-11-01
2024-11-02

2024-11-02
2024-11-03 08:22

2024-11-01 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.3%

0.9%

49.8%

Trump
by 0.5%

2024-10-30
2024-11-02

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 17:38

2024-11-01 00:00

Emerson [2]

48.9%

1.6%

49.5%

Trump
by 0.6%

2024-10-30
2024-11-02

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 17:35

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-10-31 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

47.8%

2.1%

50.1%

Trump
by 2.3%

2024-10-30
2024-10-31

2024-10-31
2024-11-01 17:34

2024-10-31 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

47.2%

4.0%

48.8%

Trump
by 1.6%

2024-10-30
2024-10-31

2024-10-31
2024-11-01 17:32

2024-10-30 00:00

ECU w/4P

49.1%

1.4%

49.5%

Trump
by 0.4%

2024-10-28
2024-10-31

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 02:47

2024-10-30 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-28
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 00:18

2024-10-28 12:00

Siena RV wo/Lean w/5P [5]

41.0%

17.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-24
2024-11-01

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 16:59

2024-10-28 12:00

Siena RV Combined w/5P [5]

43.0%

13.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-24
2024-11-01

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 16:56

2024-10-28 12:00

Siena RV [5]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-10-24
2024-11-01

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 16:55

2024-10-28 12:00

Siena LV w/5P [5]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-10-24
2024-11-01

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 16:53

2024-10-28 12:00

Siena LV [5]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-24
2024-11-01

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 16:50

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov LV [4]

48.0%

2.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 08:23

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov RV [4]

48.0%

2.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 08:21

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov LV w/4P [4]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 08:19

2024-10-28 12:00

YouGov RV w/4P [4]

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 08:18

2024-10-28 12:00

Data for Progress w/5P

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-31

2024-11-01
2024-11-02 07:34

2024-10-27 12:00

AtlasIntel [2]

47.5%

1.6%

50.9%

Trump
by 3.4%

2024-10-25
2024-10-29

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 22:48

2024-10-27 12:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

47.1%

2.7%

50.2%

Trump
by 3.1%

2024-10-25
2024-10-29

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 22:47

2024-10-27 00:00

Rasmussen

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-28

2024-10-31
2024-10-31 18:19

2024-10-27 00:00

SoCal

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-26
2024-10-27

2024-10-30
2024-10-30 17:04

2024-10-26 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-25
2024-10-27

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 18:21

2024-10-26 00:00

Morning Consult

48.0%

2.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-21
2024-10-30

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 16:29

2024-10-26 00:00

SSRS w/6P

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-23
2024-10-28

2024-10-31
2024-10-31 18:27

2024-10-25 12:00

Trafalgar

45.9%

5.8%

48.3%

Trump
by 2.4%

2024-10-24
2024-10-26

2024-10-27
2024-10-28 04:11

2024-10-24 12:00

ActiVote

48.9%

0.0%

51.1%

Trump
by 2.2%

2024-10-15
2024-11-02

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 19:53

2024-10-23 12:00

Democracy Institute

46.0%

4.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-22
2024-10-24

2024-10-25
2024-10-28 04:33

2024-10-23 00:00

National Public Affairs

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-21
2024-10-24

2024-10-31
2024-11-02 01:03

2024-10-21 12:00

The Citadel LV w/5P [2]

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-17
2024-10-25

2024-10-31
2024-10-31 18:08

2024-10-21 12:00

The Citadel RV w/5P [2]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-17
2024-10-25

2024-10-31
2024-10-31 18:07

2024-10-21 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-20
2024-10-22

2024-10-25
2024-10-25 18:23

2024-10-20 00:00

Marist RV [2]

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-17
2024-10-22

2024-10-24
2024-10-24 07:02

2024-10-20 00:00

Marist LV [2]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-10-17
2024-10-22

2024-10-24
2024-10-24 06:57

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

48.0%

2.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 05:34

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 05:25

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 05:20

2024-10-18 12:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-24 04:55

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData LV w/4P [3]

48.1%

3.2%

48.7%

Trump
by 0.6%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 21:44

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData RV w/4P [3]

50.1%

3.3%

46.6%

Harris
by 3.5%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 21:41

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData A w/4P [3]

48.9%

4.3%

46.8%

Harris
by 2.1%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 21:33

2024-10-17 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-18

2024-10-21
2024-10-21 19:12

2024-10-15 12:00

TIPP Insights LV w/Lean w/4P [5]

49.0%

2.5%

48.5%

Harris
by 0.5%

2024-10-14
2024-10-16

2024-10-18
2024-10-20 01:23

2024-10-15 12:00

TIPP Insights LV w/4P [5]

48.3%

3.7%

48.0%

Harris
by 0.3%

2024-10-14
2024-10-16

2024-10-18
2024-10-20 01:20

2024-10-15 12:00

TIPP Insights RV w/4P [5]

48.3%

6.9%

44.8%

Harris
by 3.5%

2024-10-14
2024-10-16

2024-10-18
2024-10-20 01:18

2024-10-15 12:00

TIPP Insights LV [5]

48.3%

3.2%

48.5%

Trump
by 0.2%

2024-10-14
2024-10-16

2024-10-18
2024-10-20 01:13

2024-10-15 12:00

TIPP Insights RV [5]

48.8%

5.4%

45.8%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-10-14
2024-10-16

2024-10-18
2024-10-20 01:10

2024-10-15 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

48.4%

1.5%

50.1%

Trump
by 1.7%

2024-10-12
2024-10-17

2024-10-20
2024-10-20 18:49

2024-10-15 00:00

AtlasIntel w/5P [2]

48.1%

2.4%

49.5%

Trump
by 1.4%

2024-10-12
2024-10-17

2024-10-20
2024-10-20 18:47

2024-10-15 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-14
2024-10-15

2024-10-15
2024-10-16 08:36

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES LV [2]

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:23

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES All [2]

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:22

2024-10-13 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-10-12
2024-10-14

2024-10-16
2024-10-17 05:23

2024-10-12 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

46.0%

2.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-10-10
2024-10-14

2024-10-16
2024-10-17 05:57

2024-10-12 12:00

Quinnipiac w/4P [2]

45.0%

3.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-10-10
2024-10-14

2024-10-16
2024-10-17 05:55

2024-10-12 00:00

University of Georgia w/4P

43.0%

10.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-16

2024-10-22
2024-10-22 16:56

2024-10-12 00:00

ECU w/4P

45.8%

5.3%

48.9%

Trump
by 3.1%

2024-10-09
2024-10-14

2024-10-18
2024-10-20 00:53

2024-10-11 00:00

Morning Consult

48.0%

3.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-06
2024-10-15

2024-10-17
2024-10-18 04:02

2024-10-09 12:00

ActiVote

49.3%

0.0%

50.7%

Trump
by 1.4%

2024-10-01
2024-10-17

2024-10-18
2024-10-18 16:04

2024-10-09 00:00

RMG Research w/Lean [2]

47.0%

3.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-10

2024-10-14
2024-10-15 00:59

2024-10-09 00:00

RMG Research [2]

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-10

2024-10-14
2024-10-15 00:57

2024-10-09 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-10-08
2024-10-09

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 19:14

2024-10-08 00:00

Washington Post LV [2]

51.0%

2.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-09-30
2024-10-15

2024-10-21
2024-10-21 13:44

2024-10-08 00:00

Washington Post RV [2]

50.0%

6.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-09-30
2024-10-15

2024-10-21
2024-10-21 13:42

2024-10-08 00:00

Fabrizio McLaughlin

45.0%

5.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-06
2024-10-09

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 18:11

2024-10-08 00:00

Trafalgar

44.9%

8.9%

46.2%

Trump
by 1.3%

2024-10-07
2024-10-08

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 03:41

2024-10-07 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.8%

0.5%

49.7%

Harris
by 0.1%

2024-10-05
2024-10-08

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 15:37

2024-10-07 00:00

Emerson [2]

48.3%

2.5%

49.2%

Trump
by 0.9%

2024-10-05
2024-10-08

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 15:36

2024-10-03 12:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [3]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-28
2024-10-08

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 16:37

2024-10-03 12:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [3]

42.0%

15.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-28
2024-10-08

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 16:34

2024-10-03 12:00

Fabrizio Lee w/6P [3]

46.0%

9.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-28
2024-10-08

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 16:31

2024-09-30 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-09-27
2024-10-02

2024-10-07
2024-10-08 03:14

2024-09-30 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-09-29
2024-09-30

2024-10-01
2024-10-01 23:20

2024-09-28 12:00

OnMessage

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-24
2024-10-02

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 17:49

2024-09-27 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

45.0%

5.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-09-25
2024-09-29

2024-10-01
2024-10-02 00:38

2024-09-27 12:00

Quinnipiac w/6P [2]

44.0%

6.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-09-25
2024-09-29

2024-10-01
2024-10-02 00:30

2024-09-26 12:00

Global Strategy Group [3]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-09-23
2024-09-29

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 01:44

2024-09-26 12:00

Global Strategy Group w/Lean w/6P [3]

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-23
2024-09-29

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 01:42

2024-09-26 12:00

Global Strategy Group w/6P [3]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-09-23
2024-09-29

2024-10-09
2024-10-10 01:39

2024-09-23 00:00

National Public Affairs

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-09-21
2024-09-24

2024-10-31
2024-11-02 01:00

2024-09-23 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

49.0%

1.7%

49.3%

Trump
by 0.3%

2024-09-20
2024-09-25

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 05:25

2024-09-23 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

49.0%

1.4%

49.6%

Trump
by 0.6%

2024-09-20
2024-09-25

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 05:23

2024-09-22 12:00

BSG/GS [2]

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-10-02
2024-10-02 15:26

2024-09-22 12:00

BSG/GS w/3P [2]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-10-02
2024-10-02 15:23

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw RV [4]

51.0%

1.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 09:18

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw LV [4]

51.0%

1.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 09:16

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw RV w/5P [4]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 09:14

2024-09-22 12:00

Beacon/Shaw LV w/5P [4]

50.0%

2.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 09:10

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 07:15

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 07:13

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 07:11

2024-09-22 12:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-25

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 07:04

2024-09-22 12:00

YouGov

49.0%

0.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-24

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 07:06

2024-09-22 00:00

Marist RV [2]

49.0%

3.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-26 15:33

2024-09-22 00:00

Marist LV [2]

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-24

2024-09-26
2024-09-26 15:31

2024-09-22 00:00

Bullfinch w/G3P [2]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-23

2024-09-24
2024-09-26 06:00

2024-09-22 00:00

Bullfinch [2]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-23

2024-09-24
2024-09-24 19:52

2024-09-21 00:00

Rasmussen w/Lean [2]

47.0%

2.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-22

2024-09-24
2024-09-26 05:42

2024-09-21 00:00

Rasmussen [2]

47.0%

3.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-22

2024-09-24
2024-09-26 05:39

2024-09-19 12:00

Siena RV wo/Lean w/6P [5]

42.0%

13.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-21

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:14

2024-09-19 12:00

Siena RV Combined w/6P [5]

43.0%

11.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-21

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:12

2024-09-19 12:00

Siena RV [5]

44.0%

8.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-21

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:09

2024-09-19 12:00

Siena LV w/6P [5]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-21

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:08

2024-09-19 12:00

Siena LV [5]

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-17
2024-09-21

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:04

2024-09-18 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-16
2024-09-19

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:46

2024-09-17 12:00

TIPP Insights LV w/4P [4]

46.7%

6.0%

47.3%

Trump
by 0.6%

2024-09-16
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-20 03:57

2024-09-17 12:00

TIPP Insights RV w/4P [4]

46.4%

9.2%

44.4%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-09-16
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-20 03:56

2024-09-17 12:00

TIPP Insights LV [4]

47.6%

4.5%

47.9%

Trump
by 0.3%

2024-09-16
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-20 03:53

2024-09-17 12:00

TIPP Insights RV [4]

47.5%

7.1%

45.4%

Harris
by 2.1%

2024-09-16
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-20 03:50

2024-09-17 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

48.2%

1.5%

50.3%

Trump
by 2.1%

2024-09-15
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 18:48

2024-09-17 00:00

Emerson [2]

47.2%

3.0%

49.8%

Trump
by 2.6%

2024-09-15
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-19 18:46

2024-09-14 00:00

Morning Consult

47.7%

3.7%

48.6%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-09
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-20 04:37

2024-09-14 00:00

Trafalgar

44.5%

9.3%

46.2%

Trump
by 1.7%

2024-09-12
2024-09-15

2024-09-17
2024-09-17 16:07

2024-09-12 12:00

University of Georgia w/6P

44.4%

8.7%

46.9%

Trump
by 2.5%

2024-09-09
2024-09-15

2024-09-18
2024-09-18 16:21

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData A w/4P [5]

51.6%

3.2%

45.2%

Harris
by 6.4%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 03:10

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData RV w/4P [5]

52.1%

2.4%

45.5%

Harris
by 6.6%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 03:05

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV [5]

50.5%

0.0%

49.5%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 03:04

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV w/Squeeze w/4P [5]

49.5%

2.2%

48.3%

Harris
by 1.2%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 02:56

2024-09-10 00:00

FocalData LV w/4P [5]

47.0%

6.7%

46.3%

Harris
by 0.7%

2024-09-03
2024-09-16

2024-09-25
2024-09-26 02:47

2024-09-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-06
2024-09-09

2024-09-10
2024-09-11 00:55

2024-09-06 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

46.0%

5.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-04
2024-09-08

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 07:13

2024-09-06 12:00

Quinnipiac w/6P [2]

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-04
2024-09-08

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 07:10

2024-09-06 00:00

Mainstreet RV [2]

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-05
2024-09-06

2024-09-09
2024-09-09 18:37

2024-09-06 00:00

Mainstreet RV [2]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-05
2024-09-06

2024-09-09
2024-09-09 18:36

2024-09-04 00:00

Morning Consult

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-08-30
2024-09-08

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 07:07

2024-09-02 12:00

Patriot Polling

48.3%

2.8%

48.9%

Trump
by 0.6%

2024-09-01
2024-09-03

2024-09-05
2024-09-06 06:21

2024-08-30 12:00

InsiderAdvantage

48.3%

4.1%

47.6%

Harris
by 0.7%

2024-08-29
2024-08-31

2024-08-31
2024-08-31 19:54

2024-08-29 00:00

YouGov

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-08-23
2024-09-03

2024-09-05
2024-09-06 05:57

2024-08-27 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

42.0%

14.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-30
2024-08-30 17:49

2024-08-27 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

50.1%

0.9%

49.0%

Harris
by 1.1%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 15:52

2024-08-27 00:00

Emerson [2]

48.9%

3.1%

48.0%

Harris
by 0.9%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 15:50

2024-08-26 12:00

SSRS w/5P

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-29

2024-09-04
2024-09-04 21:31

2024-08-25 00:00

ActiVote

49.8%

0.0%

50.2%

Trump
by 0.4%

2024-09-08
2024-08-10

2024-09-10
2024-09-11 01:55

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult LV [4]

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 04:42

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 04:38

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult RV [4]

49.0%

4.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 04:33

2024-08-25 00:00

Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 04:28

2024-08-25 00:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

50.0%

2.0%

48.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-28
2024-08-28 23:35

2024-08-25 00:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

48.0%

6.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-08-23
2024-08-26

2024-08-28
2024-08-28 23:32

2024-08-17 12:00

Spry w/4P [2]

46.8%

5.1%

48.1%

Trump
by 1.3%

2024-08-14
2024-08-20

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 06:07

2024-08-17 12:00

Spry [2]

48.9%

1.8%

49.3%

Trump
by 0.4%

2024-08-14
2024-08-20

2024-08-29
2024-08-30 06:05

2024-08-14 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-08-12
2024-08-15

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 19:01

2024-08-12 00:00

Siena LV w/6P [4]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-08-09
2024-08-14

2024-08-17
2024-08-17 16:25

2024-08-12 00:00

Siena LV [4]

46.0%

4.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-08-09
2024-08-14

2024-08-17
2024-08-17 16:23

2024-08-12 00:00

Siena RV w/6P [4]

41.0%

12.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-08-09
2024-08-14

2024-08-17
2024-08-17 16:20

2024-08-12 00:00

Siena RV [4]

44.0%

5.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-08-09
2024-08-14

2024-08-17
2024-08-17 16:16

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata LV [4]

48.0%

0.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 21:11

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata AV w/5P [4]

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 21:09

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata RV w/5P [4]

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 21:07

2024-08-11 12:00

Focaldata LV w/5P [4]

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-16

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 21:05

2024-08-02 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-03

2024-08-06
2024-08-06 16:43

2024-07-30 00:00

BSG/GS [2]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-07-26
2024-08-02

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 12:10

2024-07-30 00:00

BSG/GS w/3P [2]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-07-26
2024-08-02

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 12:08

2024-07-30 00:00

Trafalger/InsiderAdvantage

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-29
2024-07-30

2024-08-02
2024-08-02 16:53

2024-07-30 00:00

PPP

48.0%

5.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 1.0%

2024-07-29
2024-07-30

2024-07-31
2024-07-31 18:30

2024-07-28 00:00

Fabrizio Ward [2]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-07-24
2024-07-31

2024-08-08
2024-08-08 16:38

2024-07-28 00:00

Fabrizio Ward w/6P [2]

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-24
2024-07-31

2024-08-08
2024-08-08 16:36

2024-07-26 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-07-24
2024-07-28

2024-07-30
2024-07-30 21:20

2024-07-26 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-07-24
2024-07-28

2024-07-30
2024-07-30 21:16

2024-07-26 00:00

SoCal

46.0%

4.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-07-25
2024-07-26

2024-07-27
2024-07-27 20:02

2024-07-23 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

42.0%

11.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-26 14:30

2024-07-23 00:00

Emerson w/6P [3]

43.3%

10.8%

45.9%

Trump
by 2.6%

2024-07-22
2024-07-23

2024-07-25
2024-07-25 14:38

2024-07-23 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

48.9%

0.0%

51.1%

Trump
by 2.2%

2024-07-22
2024-07-23

2024-07-25
2024-07-25 14:33

2024-07-23 00:00

Emerson [3]

45.5%

6.8%

47.7%

Trump
by 2.2%

2024-07-22
2024-07-23

2024-07-25
2024-07-25 14:30

2024-07-22 12:00

Landmark w/6P [2]

44.3%

9.9%

45.8%

Trump
by 1.5%

2024-07-22
2024-07-22

2024-07-23
2024-07-25 04:19

2024-07-22 12:00

Landmark [2]

46.7%

5.3%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.3%

2024-07-22
2024-07-22

2024-07-23
2024-07-25 04:16

2024-07-16 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

37.0%

16.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-07-15
2024-07-16

2024-07-16
2024-07-16 16:18

2024-07-15 00:00

Mainstreet LV w/3P [4]

38.0%

16.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-07-14
2024-07-15

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 07:11

2024-07-15 00:00

Mainstreet RV w/3P [4]

37.0%

19.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-07-14
2024-07-15

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 07:10

2024-07-15 00:00

Mainstreet LV [4]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-07-14
2024-07-15

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 07:08

2024-07-15 00:00

Mainstreet RV [4]

42.0%

11.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-07-14
2024-07-15

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 07:06

2024-07-14 00:00

University of Georgia

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-07-09
2024-07-18

2024-07-21
2024-07-22 00:21

2024-07-13 00:00

Mainstreet LV w/3P [4]

38.0%

13.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2024-07-12
2024-07-13

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 06:43

2024-07-13 00:00

Mainstreet RV w/3P [4]

37.0%

17.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-07-12
2024-07-13

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 06:41

2024-07-13 00:00

Mainstreet LV [4]

43.0%

8.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-07-12
2024-07-13

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 06:38

2024-07-13 00:00

Mainstreet RV [4]

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-07-12
2024-07-13

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 06:36

2024-05-10 12:00

Morning Consult

41.0%

10.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-05-08
2024-05-12

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 20:04

2024-02-15 12:00

Emerson

41.2%

7.8%

51.0%

Trump
by 9.8%

2024-02-14
2024-02-16

2024-02-21
2024-02-22 02:59

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV [2]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 18:26

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV [2]

44.0%

11.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 16:41

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

49.5%

1.2%

49.3%

DEM
by 0.2%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 05:31

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

45.6%

3.6%

50.8%

REP
by 5.1%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 06:28

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

45.5%

1.2%

53.3%

REP
by 7.8%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:23

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

47.0%

0.8%

52.2%

REP
by 5.2%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-25 01:14

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

41.4%

0.7%

58.0%

REP
by 16.6%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 05:37

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

43.0%

2.4%

54.7%

REP
by 11.7%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-09 06:00

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

45.8%

7.2%

47.0%

REP
by 1.2%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 08:45

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.5%

13.7%

42.9%

DEM
by 0.6%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:18

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

39.5%

0.8%

59.8%

REP
by 20.3%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 06:27

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

39.8%

0.0%

60.2%

REP
by 20.4%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:27

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

55.8%

3.3%

41.0%

DEM
by 14.8%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:27

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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Read the Election Graphs blog posts.

 

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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