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2024 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - Florida [30 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-11-03 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-11-04 21:30 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 Florida [30 EV] Poll Average

 

Harris Trump
 

 

2024 Florida [30 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Harris Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Harris Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-11-03 00:00

Research Co

46.0%

2.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-11-02
2024-11-03

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 18:57

2024-11-02 00:00

Victory Insights

46.9%

1.9%

51.2%

Trump
by 4.3%

2024-11-01
2024-11-02

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 20:27

2024-10-29 00:00

Stetson University

46.0%

1.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-10-25
2024-11-01

2024-11-02
2024-11-02 17:21

2024-10-28 00:00

Morning Consult

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-23
2024-11-01

2024-11-03
2024-11-03 16:13

2024-10-27 12:00

Cygnal Total w/7P [2]

43.1%

8.7%

48.2%

Trump
by 5.1%

2024-10-26
2024-10-28

2024-10-31
2024-10-31 18:50

2024-10-27 12:00

Cygnal Definitely w/7P [2]

39.4%

17.4%

43.2%

Trump
by 3.8%

2024-10-26
2024-10-28

2024-10-31
2024-10-31 18:47

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-10-24 12:00

St. Pete

44.6%

5.1%

50.3%

Trump
by 5.7%

2024-10-23
2024-10-25

2024-10-28
2024-10-28 20:24

2024-10-23 12:00

Mainstreet LV [2]

44.0%

3.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-10-19
2024-10-27

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 19:43

2024-10-23 12:00

Mainstreet RV [2]

44.0%

3.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-10-19
2024-10-27

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 19:40

2024-10-19 12:00

ActiVote

44.2%

0.0%

55.8%

Trump
by 11.6%

2024-10-11
2024-10-27

2024-10-28
2024-10-28 20:27

2024-10-19 12:00

Hunt Research [2]

44.8%

5.3%

49.9%

Trump
by 5.1%

2024-10-16
2024-10-22

2024-10-24
2024-10-25 17:24

2024-10-19 12:00

Hunt Research w/4P [2]

43.7%

6.6%

49.7%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-22

2024-10-24
2024-10-25 17:22

2024-10-19 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

45.9%

0.5%

53.6%

Trump
by 7.7%

2024-10-18
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-23 16:49

2024-10-19 12:00

Emerson [2]

44.4%

3.6%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.6%

2024-10-18
2024-10-20

2024-10-23
2024-10-23 16:47

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData LV w/4P [3]

45.3%

3.0%

51.7%

Trump
by 6.4%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 21:30

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData RV w/4P [3]

46.4%

3.9%

49.7%

Trump
by 3.3%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 21:28

2024-10-18 00:00

FocalData A w/4P [3]

46.5%

4.9%

48.6%

Trump
by 2.1%

2024-10-03
2024-11-01

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 21:25

2024-10-17 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-16
2024-10-18

2024-10-21
2024-10-21 19:10

2024-10-16 00:00

RMG Research w/Lean [2]

47.0%

1.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-14
2024-10-17

2024-10-18
2024-10-18 16:09

2024-10-16 00:00

RMG Research [2]

45.0%

3.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-10-14
2024-10-17

2024-10-18
2024-10-18 16:08

2024-10-15 12:00

Cherry Communications

45.0%

4.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-10-10
2024-10-20

2024-10-25
2024-10-25 17:13

2024-10-14 00:00

ActiVote

45.4%

0.0%

54.6%

Trump
by 9.2%

2024-10-07
2024-10-20

2024-10-21
2024-10-21 15:03

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES LV [2]

46.0%

2.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:19

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES All [2]

47.0%

2.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:17

2024-10-13 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

44.0%

6.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-10-12
2024-10-14

2024-10-16
2024-10-17 05:21

2024-10-13 00:00

UNF

43.0%

4.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-18

2024-10-21
2024-10-21 15:01

2024-10-12 12:00

YouGov RV [3]

45.0%

5.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-17

2024-10-30
2024-10-30 17:36

2024-10-12 12:00

YouGov LV [3]

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-17

2024-10-30
2024-10-30 16:18

2024-10-12 12:00

YouGov RV w/Lean [3]

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-07
2024-10-17

2024-10-30
2024-10-30 16:16

2024-10-07 00:00

Tarrance

44.0%

5.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-10-05
2024-10-08

2024-10-15
2024-10-16 07:00

2024-10-05 12:00

Marist RV [2]

47.0%

2.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-03
2024-10-07

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 14:43

2024-10-05 12:00

Marist LV [2]

47.0%

2.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-03
2024-10-07

2024-10-10
2024-10-11 14:41

2024-10-03 00:00

Mason-Dixon

43.0%

8.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-04

2024-10-13
2024-10-13 19:37

2024-10-03 00:00

Siena LV Combined w/6P [5]

40.0%

7.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 13.0%

2024-09-29
2024-10-06

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 16:37

2024-10-03 00:00

Siena LV [5]

41.0%

4.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2024-09-29
2024-10-06

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 16:32

2024-10-03 00:00

Siena RV wo/Lean w/6P [5]

39.0%

11.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2024-09-29
2024-10-06

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 16:27

2024-10-03 00:00

Siena RV Combined w/6P [5]

40.0%

7.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 13.0%

2024-09-29
2024-10-06

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 16:25

2024-10-03 00:00

Siena RV [5]

41.0%

5.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 13.0%

2024-09-29
2024-10-06

2024-10-08
2024-10-08 16:23

2024-09-30 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-27
2024-10-02

2024-10-07
2024-10-08 03:11

2024-09-27 00:00

ActiVote

47.0%

0.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-09-17
2024-10-06

2024-10-07
2024-10-08 06:07

2024-09-26 12:00

RMG Research w/Lean [2]

48.0%

2.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-25
2024-09-27

2024-10-03
2024-10-03 15:47

2024-09-26 12:00

RMG Research [2]

47.0%

3.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-09-25
2024-09-27

2024-10-03
2024-10-03 15:45

2024-09-26 00:00

PPP [2]

46.0%

4.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-25
2024-09-26

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 16:14

2024-09-26 00:00

PPP w/4P [2]

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-09-25
2024-09-26

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 16:10

2024-09-24 12:00

McLaughlin

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-09-23
2024-09-25

2024-10-02
2024-10-03 03:36

2024-09-24 00:00

Victory Insights

44.9%

8.2%

46.9%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-09-22
2024-09-25

2024-09-30
2024-09-30 16:07

2024-09-22 00:00

Bullfinch w/G3P [2]

45.0%

9.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-23

2024-09-24
2024-09-26 05:57

2024-09-22 00:00

Bullfinch [2]

47.0%

5.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-09-20
2024-09-23

2024-09-24
2024-09-24 19:49

2024-09-18 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

45.0%

5.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-09-16
2024-09-19

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:44

2024-09-14 00:00

Morning Consult

46.8%

3.7%

49.5%

Trump
by 2.7%

2024-09-09
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-20 04:39

2024-09-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton

44.0%

6.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-09-06
2024-09-09

2024-09-10
2024-09-11 00:52

2024-09-04 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

47.6%

1.3%

51.1%

Trump
by 3.5%

2024-09-03
2024-09-05

2024-09-06
2024-09-06 18:16

2024-09-04 12:00

Emerson [2]

45.2%

5.3%

49.5%

Trump
by 4.3%

2024-09-03
2024-09-05

2024-09-06
2024-09-06 18:14

2024-09-04 00:00

Morning Consult

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-08-30
2024-09-08

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 04:11

2024-08-27 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

43.0%

9.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-30
2024-08-30 17:44

2024-08-24 00:00

ActiVote

46.6%

0.0%

53.4%

Trump
by 6.8%

2024-08-16
2024-08-31

2024-08-31
2024-08-31 19:45

2024-08-22 00:00

PPP [2]

47.0%

2.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-08-21
2024-08-22

2024-08-27
2024-08-27 15:36

2024-08-22 00:00

PPP w/5P [2]

45.0%

7.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-08-21
2024-08-22

2024-08-27
2024-08-27 15:31

2024-08-21 00:00

Cherry

45.0%

3.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-08-15
2024-08-26

2024-08-30
2024-08-30 16:00

2024-08-14 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

43.0%

9.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-08-12
2024-08-15

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 18:59

2024-08-11 00:00

Mainstreet LV w/3P [4]

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-08-10
2024-08-11

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 15:50

2024-08-11 00:00

Mainstreet RV w/3P [4]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-08-10
2024-08-11

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 15:48

2024-08-11 00:00

Mainstreet LV [4]

47.0%

3.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-08-10
2024-08-11

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 15:46

2024-08-11 00:00

Mainstreet RV [4]

46.0%

5.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-08-10
2024-08-11

2024-08-14
2024-08-14 15:43

2024-08-10 12:00

ActiVote

45.9%

0.0%

54.1%

Trump
by 8.2%

2024-08-05
2024-08-15

2024-08-15
2024-08-15 22:12

2024-08-09 12:00

Suffolk w/6P

41.8%

11.4%

46.8%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-08-07
2024-08-11

2024-08-13
2024-08-13 16:26

2024-08-07 12:00

McLaughlin w/3P

44.0%

4.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-08-06
2024-08-08

2024-08-13
2024-08-13 18:39

2024-08-02 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

41.0%

12.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-03

2024-08-06
2024-08-06 16:40

2024-07-26 00:00

UNF

42.0%

9.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-07-24
2024-07-27

2024-07-30
2024-07-30 15:36

2024-07-23 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

39.0%

14.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-26 14:24

2024-07-22 00:00

Targoz LV w/6P [2]

42.0%

11.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-07-19
2024-07-24

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 15:33

2024-07-22 00:00

Targoz RV w/6P [2]

39.0%

15.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-07-19
2024-07-24

2024-08-29
2024-08-29 15:30

2024-07-16 00:00

InsiderAdvantage

39.0%

11.7%

49.3%

Trump
by 10.3%

2024-07-15
2024-07-16

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 07:45

2022-09-17 00:00

Suffolk

44.4%

10.0%

45.6%

Trump
by 1.2%

2022-09-15
2022-09-18

2022-09-21
2023-03-23 01:47

2021-09-17 12:00

Victory

50.7%

0.0%

49.3%

Harris
by 1.4%

2021-09-16
2021-09-18

2021-10-12
2023-03-20 09:16

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

47.9%

0.9%

51.2%

REP
by 3.4%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 02:35

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.8%

3.2%

49.0%

REP
by 1.2%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 06:21

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

50.0%

0.9%

49.1%

DEM
by 0.9%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:08

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

51.0%

0.8%

48.2%

DEM
by 2.8%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:48

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

47.1%

0.8%

52.1%

REP
by 5.0%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 01:26

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

48.8%

2.3%

48.9%

REP
by 0.0%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-09 05:52

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

48.0%

9.7%

42.3%

DEM
by 5.7%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 08:31

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

39.0%

20.1%

40.9%

REP
by 1.9%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:16

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

38.5%

0.6%

60.9%

REP
by 22.4%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 05:14

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

34.7%

0.0%

65.3%

REP
by 30.7%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:24

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

38.5%

6.0%

55.5%

REP
by 17.0%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:24

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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