2024 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Wisconsin [10 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-29 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-12-05 07:03 UTC

Best Polled:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2023-11-29 12:00	JL Partners [2]	45.0%	14.0%	41.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2023-11-27 2023-12-01	2023-12-04 2023-12-05 07:03
2023-11-29 12:00	JL Partners w/5P [2]	37.0%	31.0%	32.0%	Biden by 5.0%	2023-11-27 2023-12-01	2023-12-04 2023-12-05 06:57
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult w/4P [2]	36.0%	26.0%	38.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:34
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	46.0%	7.0%	47.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:32
2023-11-02 00:00	Emerson RV [2]	42.6%	13.6%	43.8%	Trump by 1.2%	2023-10-30 2023-11-04	2023-11-09 2023-11-10 02:08
2023-11-02 00:00	Emerson LV [2]	45.0%	9.8%	45.2%	Trump by 0.2%	2023-10-30 2023-11-04	2023-11-09 2023-11-10 02:04
2023-10-30 00:00	Marquette w/Lean [2]	50.0%	2.0%	48.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-10-26 2023-11-02	2023-11-08 2023-11-09 00:53
2023-10-30 00:00	Marquette [2]	45.0%	13.0%	42.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2023-10-26 2023-11-02	2023-11-08 2023-11-09 00:51
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV w/3P [6]	37.0%	28.0%	35.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-07 17:17
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV w/3P [6]	37.0%	28.0%	35.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-07 17:15
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV Definitely [6]	36.0%	28.0%	36.0%	TIED	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 18:17
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV w/Lean [6]	47.0%	8.0%	45.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 18:11
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV Definitely [6]	35.0%	30.0%	35.0%	TIED	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:31
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV w/Lean [6]	47.0%	8.0%	45.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:27

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2023-10-08 00:00	Morning Consult	44.0%	10.0%	46.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2023-10-05 2023-10-10	2023-10-19 2023-10-19 16:12
2023-10-03 00:00	Emerson	39.5%	18.5%	42.0%	Trump by 2.5%	2023-10-01 2023-10-04	2023-10-12 2023-10-13 02:00
2023-09-26 00:00	PPP	48.0%	8.0%	44.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2023-09-25 2023-09-26	2023-09-29 2023-09-29 16:03
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime w/NL [2]	37.0%	23.0%	40.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:38
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime [2]	53.0%	0.0%	47.0%	Biden by 6.0%	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:54
2023-06-10 12:00	Marquette	52.0%	5.0%	43.0%	Biden by 9.0%	2023-06-08 2023-06-12	2023-06-28 2023-06-29 06:17
2023-04-19 00:00	Public Opinion Strategies	47.0%	9.0%	44.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2023-04-17 2023-04-20	2023-04-24 2023-04-24 15:22
2022-10-28 12:00	Emerson	44.2%	12.9%	42.9%	Biden by 1.3%	2022-10-27 2022-10-29	2022-11-02 2023-03-24 02:26
2022-09-17 12:00	Emerson	44.8%	11.2%	44.0%	Biden by 0.8%	2022-09-16 2022-09-18	2022-09-20 2023-03-22 03:56
2021-11-14 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]	38.0%	15.0%	47.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2021-11-11 2021-11-16	2021-11-21 2023-07-04 00:51
2021-11-14 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Total [2]	42.0%	6.0%	52.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2021-11-11 2021-11-16	2021-11-21 2023-03-20 13:36
2021-10-29 00:00	Marquette	45.0%	14.0%	41.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2021-10-26 2021-10-31	2021-11-03 2023-03-20 09:59
2020-11-03 12:00	Election2020	49.5%	1.7%	48.8%	DEM by 0.6%	2020-11-03 2020-11-03	2020-11-03 2023-03-17 06:24
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	46.5%	6.3%	47.2%	REP by 0.8%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-24 18:34
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	52.8%	1.3%	45.9%	DEM by 6.9%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:19
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	56.2%	1.5%	42.3%	DEM by 13.9%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-10-06 05:22
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	49.7%	1.0%	49.3%	DEM by 0.4%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:19
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	47.8%	4.6%	47.6%	DEM by 0.2%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 11:16
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	48.8%	12.7%	38.5%	DEM by 10.3%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-18 15:53
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	41.1%	22.1%	36.8%	DEM by 4.4%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 07:09
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	51.4%	0.8%	47.8%	DEM by 3.6%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 20:13
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	45.0%	0.8%	54.2%	REP by 9.2%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 07:46
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	43.2%	8.9%	47.9%	REP by 4.7%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:35

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

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