2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Wisconsin [10 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-07-17 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-07-21 19:41 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 Wisconsin [10 EV] Poll Average

 

Biden Trump
 

 

2024 Wisconsin [10 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Biden Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Biden Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-07-17 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

42.0%

16.0%

42.0%

TIED

2024-07-16
2024-07-18

2024-07-21
2024-07-21 19:41

2024-07-16 12:00

Trafalgar w/6P

43.0%

11.4%

45.6%

Trump
by 2.6%

2024-07-15
2024-07-17

2024-07-19
2024-07-19 17:11

2024-07-16 00:00

Emerson w/6P [2]

42.6%

11.9%

45.5%

Trump
by 2.9%

2024-07-15
2024-07-16

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 05:39

2024-07-16 00:00

Emerson [2]

43.4%

9.0%

47.6%

Trump
by 4.2%

2024-07-15
2024-07-16

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 05:38

2024-07-15 00:00

Civiqs w/3P

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-07-13
2024-07-16

2024-07-19
2024-07-19 22:53

2024-07-12 00:00

PPP

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-07-11
2024-07-12

2024-07-17
2024-07-17 16:44

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-07-08 12:00

YouGov LV w/5P [2]

39.0%

17.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-07-04
2024-07-12

2024-07-15
2024-07-16 18:28

2024-07-08 12:00

YouGov RV w/5P [2]

38.0%

19.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-07-04
2024-07-12

2024-07-15
2024-07-16 18:27

2024-07-08 12:00

North Star w/5P [2]

36.0%

26.0%

38.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-06
2024-07-10

2024-07-12
2024-07-12 17:35

2024-07-08 12:00

North Star [2]

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-06
2024-07-10

2024-07-12
2024-07-12 17:32

2024-07-03 12:00

Morning Consult w/6P [2]

41.0%

20.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-07-01
2024-07-05

2024-07-06
2024-07-06 19:09

2024-07-03 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

47.0%

9.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2024-07-01
2024-07-05

2024-07-06
2024-07-06 16:51

2024-07-01 12:00

Emerson

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-06-30
2024-07-02

2024-07-08
2024-07-09 00:28

2024-07-01 12:00

SoCal Research

43.0%

13.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-06-30
2024-07-02

2024-07-07
2024-07-08 02:27

2024-06-30 12:00

Fabrizio Ward [2]

45.0%

5.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-06-28
2024-07-02

2024-07-09
2024-07-09 15:09

2024-06-30 12:00

Fabrizio Ward w/5P [2]

38.0%

18.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-06-28
2024-07-02

2024-07-09
2024-07-09 15:05

2024-06-30 12:00

Remington

43.0%

8.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-06-29
2024-07-01

2024-07-08
2024-07-08 17:02

2024-06-16 12:00

Marquette LV w/6P [6]

42.0%

14.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-06-12
2024-06-20

2024-06-26
2024-06-26 19:20

2024-06-16 12:00

Marquette RV w/6P [6]

40.0%

17.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-06-12
2024-06-20

2024-06-26
2024-06-26 19:19

2024-06-16 12:00

Marquette LV [6]

47.0%

9.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2024-06-12
2024-06-20

2024-06-26
2024-06-26 19:15

2024-06-16 12:00

Marquette RV [6]

44.0%

12.0%

44.0%

TIED

2024-06-12
2024-06-20

2024-06-26
2024-06-26 19:14

2024-06-16 12:00

Marquette LV w/Lean [6]

51.0%

0.0%

49.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-06-12
2024-06-20

2024-06-26
2024-06-26 19:11

2024-06-16 12:00

Marquette RV w/Lean [6]

50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

TIED

2024-06-12
2024-06-20

2024-06-26
2024-06-26 19:07

2024-06-16 00:00

P2 Insights w/3P

42.0%

13.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-06-11
2024-06-20

2024-06-27
2024-06-27 23:10

2024-06-16 00:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

42.0%

14.2%

43.8%

Trump
by 1.8%

2024-06-13
2024-06-18

2024-06-20
2024-06-21 05:06

2024-06-16 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

48.7%

0.0%

51.3%

Trump
by 2.6%

2024-06-13
2024-06-18

2024-06-20
2024-06-21 05:05

2024-06-16 00:00

Emerson [3]

44.3%

8.8%

46.9%

Trump
by 2.6%

2024-06-13
2024-06-18

2024-06-20
2024-06-21 05:01

2024-06-08 00:00

JL Partners w/5P

44.0%

12.0%

44.0%

TIED

2024-06-05
2024-06-10

2024-06-13
2024-06-14 01:48

2024-05-31 00:00

Mainstreet LV w/3P [4]

40.0%

25.0%

35.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2024-05-30
2024-05-31

2024-06-04
2024-06-05 00:57

2024-05-31 00:00

Mainstreet RV w/3P [4]

38.0%

31.0%

31.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2024-05-30
2024-05-31

2024-06-04
2024-06-05 00:56

2024-05-31 00:00

Mainstreet LV [4]

40.0%

19.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-05-30
2024-05-31

2024-06-04
2024-06-05 00:54

2024-05-31 00:00

Mainstreet RV [4]

40.0%

22.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-05-30
2024-05-31

2024-06-04
2024-06-05 00:51

2024-05-17 12:00

KAConsulting w/6P [2]

42.0%

16.0%

42.0%

TIED

2024-05-15
2024-05-19

2024-07-16
2024-07-16 16:11

2024-05-17 12:00

KAConsulting [2]

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-05-15
2024-05-19

2024-07-16
2024-07-16 16:09

2024-05-17 12:00

P2 Insights w/3P

42.0%

14.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-05-13
2024-05-21

2024-06-27
2024-06-27 21:26

2024-05-13 00:00

Prime w/5P [2]

44.0%

12.0%

44.0%

TIED

2024-05-09
2024-05-16

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 19:44

2024-05-13 00:00

Prime [2]

51.0%

0.0%

49.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-05-09
2024-05-16

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 19:35

2024-05-10 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-05-07
2024-05-13

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 21:01

2024-05-10 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

42.0%

15.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-05-07
2024-05-13

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 20:59

2024-05-10 00:00

BSG/GS [2]

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-05-06
2024-05-13

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 03:46

2024-05-10 00:00

BSG/GS w/5P [2]

41.0%

18.0%

41.0%

TIED

2024-05-06
2024-05-13

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 03:43

2024-05-04 12:00

Quinnipiac w/5P [2]

40.0%

21.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-05-02
2024-05-06

2024-05-08
2024-05-08 19:48

2024-05-04 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

50.0%

6.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2024-05-02
2024-05-06

2024-05-08
2024-05-08 19:40

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena LV [4]

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 07:25

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena LV w/6P [4]

39.0%

21.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 07:23

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena RV [4]

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 07:22

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena RV w/6P [4]

38.0%

24.0%

38.0%

TIED

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 07:20

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

40.4%

14.9%

44.7%

Trump
by 4.3%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 16:24

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

48.4%

0.0%

51.6%

Trump
by 3.2%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 16:23

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson [3]

45.0%

8.1%

46.9%

Trump
by 1.9%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 16:18

2024-04-22 12:00

YouGov w/3P [2]

44.0%

8.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-04-19
2024-04-25

2024-04-28
2024-04-28 19:08

2024-04-22 12:00

YouGov [2]

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-04-19
2024-04-25

2024-04-28
2024-04-28 19:04

2024-04-21 00:00

Kaplan

38.0%

14.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2024-04-20
2024-04-21

2024-04-26
2024-04-26 23:30

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

46.0%

5.9%

48.1%

Trump
by 2.1%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-06 16:53

2024-04-14 00:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-04-11
2024-04-16

2024-04-18
2024-04-19 22:35

2024-04-14 00:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

43.0%

16.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-04-11
2024-04-16

2024-04-18
2024-04-19 22:32

2024-04-11 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

44.0%

8.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-04-08
2024-04-14

2024-04-24
2024-04-24 15:40

2024-04-11 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

41.0%

15.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-04-08
2024-04-14

2024-04-24
2024-04-24 15:38

2024-04-08 00:00

North Star w/5P [2]

36.0%

27.0%

37.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-04-06
2024-04-09

2024-04-17
2024-04-17 17:25

2024-04-08 00:00

North Star [2]

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-04-06
2024-04-09

2024-04-17
2024-04-17 17:22

2024-04-07 00:00

Marquette LV w/5P [6]

41.0%

17.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-04-03
2024-04-10

2024-04-17
2024-04-18 15:11

2024-04-07 00:00

Marquette LV w/Lean [6]

49.0%

0.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-04-03
2024-04-10

2024-04-17
2024-04-18 15:09

2024-04-07 00:00

Marquette LV [6]

45.0%

7.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-04-03
2024-04-10

2024-04-17
2024-04-18 15:06

2024-04-07 00:00

Marquette RV w/5P [6]

40.0%

19.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-04-03
2024-04-10

2024-04-17
2024-04-18 15:04

2024-04-07 00:00

Marquette RV w/Lean [6]

49.0%

0.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-04-03
2024-04-10

2024-04-17
2024-04-18 15:02

2024-04-07 00:00

Marquette RV [6]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-04-03
2024-04-10

2024-04-17
2024-04-18 14:58

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [4]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 06:00

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [4]

40.0%

21.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:58

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee w/4P [4]

43.0%

15.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:56

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee w/6P [4]

41.0%

21.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:54

2024-03-18 12:00

Emerson

45.3%

8.0%

46.7%

Trump
by 1.4%

2024-03-16
2024-03-20

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 06:06

2024-03-16 12:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

39.6%

17.0%

43.4%

Trump
by 3.8%

2024-03-14
2024-03-18

2024-03-21
2024-03-22 02:28

2024-03-16 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

48.2%

0.0%

51.8%

Trump
by 3.6%

2024-03-14
2024-03-18

2024-03-21
2024-03-22 02:25

2024-03-16 12:00

Emerson [3]

43.3%

10.7%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.7%

2024-03-14
2024-03-18

2024-03-21
2024-03-22 02:22

2024-03-16 00:00

Echelon Total [2]

47.0%

7.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-03-12
2024-03-19

2024-04-15
2024-04-15 16:48

2024-03-16 00:00

Echelon Definitely [2]

42.0%

18.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-03-12
2024-03-19

2024-04-15
2024-04-15 16:46

2024-03-11 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

46.0%

9.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-03-08
2024-03-14

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 11:43

2024-03-11 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

39.0%

20.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-03-08
2024-03-14

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 11:34

2024-02-23 00:00

Kaplan

39.0%

20.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-02-22
2024-02-23

2024-02-26
2024-02-28 03:13

2024-02-22 12:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

37.1%

22.1%

40.8%

Trump
by 3.7%

2024-02-20
2024-02-24

2024-02-27
2024-02-28 03:50

2024-02-22 12:00

Emerson [2]

42.4%

12.4%

45.2%

Trump
by 2.8%

2024-02-20
2024-02-24

2024-02-27
2024-02-28 03:47

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 07:08

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

35.0%

24.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 07:06

2024-01-28 12:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

47.0%

6.0%

47.0%

TIED

2024-01-26
2024-01-30

2024-02-02
2024-02-02 17:39

2024-01-28 12:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

39.0%

19.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-01-26
2024-01-30

2024-02-02
2024-02-02 17:35

2024-01-28 00:00

Marquette LV w/5P [6]

39.0%

20.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-01-24
2024-01-31

2024-02-07
2024-02-08 01:27

2024-01-28 00:00

Marquette LV w/Lean [6]

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-01-24
2024-01-31

2024-02-07
2024-02-08 01:24

2024-01-28 00:00

Marquette LV [6]

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-01-24
2024-01-31

2024-02-07
2024-02-08 01:21

2024-01-28 00:00

Marquette RV w/5P [6]

37.0%

23.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-01-24
2024-01-31

2024-02-07
2024-02-08 01:19

2024-01-28 00:00

Marquette RV w/Lean [6]

49.0%

2.0%

49.0%

TIED

2024-01-24
2024-01-31

2024-02-07
2024-02-08 01:17

2024-01-28 00:00

Marquette RV [6]

44.0%

12.0%

44.0%

TIED

2024-01-24
2024-01-31

2024-02-07
2024-02-08 01:16

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata LV 2W [3]

49.3%

0.0%

50.7%

Trump
by 1.4%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 02:48

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata LV [3]

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 02:47

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata All [3]

38.0%

19.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 02:46

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 19:46

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

35.0%

22.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 19:43

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

41.0%

14.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 02:18

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

34.0%

26.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 02:14

2023-11-29 12:00

JL Partners [2]

45.0%

14.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-01

2023-12-04
2023-12-05 07:03

2023-11-29 12:00

JL Partners w/5P [2]

37.0%

31.0%

32.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-01

2023-12-04
2023-12-05 06:57

2023-11-21 00:00

Big Data LV w/5P [6]

37.7%

22.3%

40.0%

Trump
by 2.3%

2023-11-18
2023-11-23

2023-11-23
2024-04-26 23:42

2023-11-21 00:00

Big Data LV w/3P [6]

38.8%

22.0%

39.2%

Trump
by 0.4%

2023-11-18
2023-11-23

2023-11-23
2024-04-26 23:40

2023-11-21 00:00

Big Data LV [6]

39.0%

22.0%

39.0%

TIED

2023-11-18
2023-11-23

2023-11-23
2024-04-26 23:37

2023-11-21 00:00

Big Data Total w/5P [6]

35.9%

24.7%

39.4%

Trump
by 3.5%

2023-11-18
2023-11-23

2023-11-23
2024-04-18 15:33

2023-11-21 00:00

Big Data Total w/3P [6]

36.5%

24.8%

38.7%

Trump
by 2.2%

2023-11-18
2023-11-23

2023-11-23
2024-04-18 15:31

2023-11-21 00:00

Big Data Total [6]

37.1%

24.3%

38.6%

Trump
by 1.5%

2023-11-18
2023-11-23

2023-11-23
2024-04-18 15:27

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult w/4P [2]

36.0%

26.0%

38.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 20:34

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 20:32

2023-11-02 00:00

Emerson RV [2]

42.6%

13.6%

43.8%

Trump
by 1.2%

2023-10-30
2023-11-04

2023-11-09
2023-11-10 02:08

2023-11-02 00:00

Emerson LV [2]

45.0%

9.8%

45.2%

Trump
by 0.2%

2023-10-30
2023-11-04

2023-11-09
2023-11-10 02:04

2023-10-30 00:00

Marquette LV [4]

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-10-26
2023-11-02

2023-11-08
2024-06-26 19:32

2023-10-30 00:00

Marquette LV w/Lean [4]

50.0%

2.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-10-26
2023-11-02

2023-11-08
2024-06-26 19:30

2023-10-30 00:00

Marquette RV w/Lean [4]

50.0%

2.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-10-26
2023-11-02

2023-11-08
2023-11-09 00:53

2023-10-30 00:00

Marquette RV [4]

45.0%

13.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2023-10-26
2023-11-02

2023-11-08
2023-11-09 00:51

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV w/3P [6]

37.0%

28.0%

35.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-07 17:17

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV w/3P [6]

37.0%

28.0%

35.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-07 17:15

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV Definitely [6]

36.0%

28.0%

36.0%

TIED

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 18:17

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV w/Lean [6]

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 18:11

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV Definitely [6]

35.0%

30.0%

35.0%

TIED

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 16:31

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV w/Lean [6]

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 16:27

2023-10-08 00:00

Morning Consult

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2023-10-05
2023-10-10

2023-10-19
2023-10-19 16:12

2023-10-03 00:00

Emerson

39.5%

18.5%

42.0%

Trump
by 2.5%

2023-10-01
2023-10-04

2023-10-12
2023-10-13 02:00

2023-09-26 00:00

PPP

48.0%

8.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2023-09-25
2023-09-26

2023-09-29
2023-09-29 16:03

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime w/NL [2]

37.0%

23.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-08-15 14:38

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime [2]

53.0%

0.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-07-14 05:54

2023-06-10 12:00

Marquette

52.0%

5.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2023-06-08
2023-06-12

2023-06-28
2023-06-29 06:17

2023-04-19 00:00

Public Opinion Strategies

47.0%

9.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2023-04-17
2023-04-20

2023-04-24
2023-04-24 15:22

2022-10-28 12:00

Emerson

44.2%

12.9%

42.9%

Biden
by 1.3%

2022-10-27
2022-10-29

2022-11-02
2023-03-24 02:26

2022-09-17 12:00

Emerson

44.8%

11.2%

44.0%

Biden
by 0.8%

2022-09-16
2022-09-18

2022-09-20
2023-03-22 03:56

2021-11-14 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]

38.0%

15.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2021-11-11
2021-11-16

2021-11-21
2023-07-04 00:51

2021-11-14 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [2]

42.0%

6.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2021-11-11
2021-11-16

2021-11-21
2023-03-20 13:36

2021-10-29 00:00

Marquette

45.0%

14.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2021-10-26
2021-10-31

2021-11-03
2023-03-20 09:59

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

49.5%

1.7%

48.8%

DEM
by 0.6%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-17 06:24

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

46.5%

6.3%

47.2%

REP
by 0.8%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-24 18:34

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.8%

1.3%

45.9%

DEM
by 6.9%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:19

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

56.2%

1.5%

42.3%

DEM
by 13.9%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-06 05:22

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

49.7%

1.0%

49.3%

DEM
by 0.4%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:19

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

47.8%

4.6%

47.6%

DEM
by 0.2%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 11:16

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

48.8%

12.7%

38.5%

DEM
by 10.3%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-18 15:53

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

41.1%

22.1%

36.8%

DEM
by 4.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 07:09

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

51.4%

0.8%

47.8%

DEM
by 3.6%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 20:13

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

45.0%

0.8%

54.2%

REP
by 9.2%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 07:46

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

43.2%

8.9%

47.9%

REP
by 4.7%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:35

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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