2024 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Wisconsin [10 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-29 12:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2023-12-05 07:03 UTC
Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Biden vs DeSantis Biden vs Haley Harris vs Trump Biden vs Pence Biden vs Youngkin || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-11-29 12:00
JL Partners [2]
45.0%
14.0%
41.0%
Biden by 4.0%
2023-11-27 2023-12-01
2023-12-04 2023-12-05 07:03
2023-11-29 12:00
JL Partners w/5P [2]
37.0%
31.0%
32.0%
Biden by 5.0%
2023-11-27 2023-12-01
2023-12-04 2023-12-05 06:57
2023-11-03 12:00
Morning Consult w/4P [2]
36.0%
26.0%
38.0%
Trump by 2.0%
2023-10-30 2023-11-07
2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:34
2023-11-03 12:00
Morning Consult [2]
46.0%
7.0%
47.0%
Trump by 1.0%
2023-10-30 2023-11-07
2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:32
2023-11-02 00:00
Emerson RV [2]
42.6%
13.6%
43.8%
Trump by 1.2%
2023-10-30 2023-11-04
2023-11-09 2023-11-10 02:08
2023-11-02 00:00
Emerson LV [2]
45.0%
9.8%
45.2%
Trump by 0.2%
2023-10-30 2023-11-04
2023-11-09 2023-11-10 02:04
2023-10-30 00:00
Marquette w/Lean [2]
50.0%
2.0%
48.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-10-26 2023-11-02
2023-11-08 2023-11-09 00:53
2023-10-30 00:00
Marquette [2]
45.0%
13.0%
42.0%
Biden by 3.0%
2023-10-26 2023-11-02
2023-11-08 2023-11-09 00:51
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena LV w/3P [6]
37.0%
28.0%
35.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-07 17:17
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena RV w/3P [6]
37.0%
28.0%
35.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-07 17:15
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena LV Definitely [6]
36.0%
28.0%
36.0%
TIED
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 18:17
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena LV w/Lean [6]
47.0%
8.0%
45.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 18:11
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena RV Definitely [6]
35.0%
30.0%
35.0%
TIED
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:31
2023-10-28 12:00
Siena RV w/Lean [6]
47.0%
8.0%
45.0%
Biden by 2.0%
2023-10-22 2023-11-03
2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:27
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-10-08 00:00
Morning Consult
44.0%
10.0%
46.0%
Trump by 2.0%
2023-10-05 2023-10-10
2023-10-19 2023-10-19 16:12
2023-10-03 00:00
Emerson
39.5%
18.5%
42.0%
Trump by 2.5%
2023-10-01 2023-10-04
2023-10-12 2023-10-13 02:00
2023-09-26 00:00
PPP
48.0%
8.0%
44.0%
Biden by 4.0%
2023-09-25 2023-09-26
2023-09-29 2023-09-29 16:03
2023-06-21 12:00
Prime w/NL [2]
37.0%
23.0%
40.0%
Trump by 3.0%
2023-06-14 2023-06-28
2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:38
2023-06-21 12:00
Prime [2]
53.0%
0.0%
47.0%
Biden by 6.0%
2023-06-14 2023-06-28
2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:54
2023-06-10 12:00
Marquette
52.0%
5.0%
43.0%
Biden by 9.0%
2023-06-08 2023-06-12
2023-06-28 2023-06-29 06:17
2023-04-19 00:00
Public Opinion Strategies
47.0%
9.0%
44.0%
Biden by 3.0%
2023-04-17 2023-04-20
2023-04-24 2023-04-24 15:22
2022-10-28 12:00
Emerson
44.2%
12.9%
42.9%
Biden by 1.3%
2022-10-27 2022-10-29
2022-11-02 2023-03-24 02:26
2022-09-17 12:00
Emerson
44.8%
11.2%
44.0%
Biden by 0.8%
2022-09-16 2022-09-18
2022-09-20 2023-03-22 03:56
2021-11-14 00:00
Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]
38.0%
15.0%
47.0%
Trump by 9.0%
2021-11-11 2021-11-16
2021-11-21 2023-07-04 00:51
2021-11-14 00:00
Fabrizio Lee Total [2]
42.0%
6.0%
52.0%
Trump by 10.0%
2021-11-11 2021-11-16
2021-11-21 2023-03-20 13:36
2021-10-29 00:00
Marquette
45.0%
14.0%
41.0%
Biden by 4.0%
2021-10-26 2021-10-31
2021-11-03 2023-03-20 09:59
2020-11-03 12:00
Election2020
49.5%
1.7%
48.8%
DEM by 0.6%
2020-11-03 2020-11-03
2020-11-03 2023-03-17 06:24
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
46.5%
6.3%
47.2%
REP by 0.8%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-24 18:34
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
52.8%
1.3%
45.9%
DEM by 6.9%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:19
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
56.2%
1.5%
42.3%
DEM by 13.9%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-10-06 05:22
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
49.7%
1.0%
49.3%
DEM by 0.4%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:19
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
47.8%
4.6%
47.6%
DEM by 0.2%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 11:16
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
48.8%
12.7%
38.5%
DEM by 10.3%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-18 15:53
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
41.1%
22.1%
36.8%
DEM by 4.4%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 07:09
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
51.4%
0.8%
47.8%
DEM by 3.6%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 20:13
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
45.0%
0.8%
54.2%
REP by 9.2%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-24 07:46
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
43.2%
8.9%
47.9%
REP by 4.7%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:35
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024 ".
For more information, read the FAQ .
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