2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Pennsylvania [19 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-07-18 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-07-21 19:26 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 Pennsylvania [19 EV] Poll Average

 

Biden Trump
 

 

2024 Pennsylvania [19 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Biden Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Biden Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-07-18 00:00

PPP [2]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-07-17
2024-07-18

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 16:07

2024-07-18 00:00

PPP w/4P [2]

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-07-17
2024-07-18

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 16:01

2024-07-17 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

41.0%

14.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-07-16
2024-07-18

2024-07-21
2024-07-21 19:26

2024-07-16 00:00

Insider Advantage

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-07-15
2024-07-16

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 07:57

2024-07-16 00:00

Emerson w/6P [2]

39.7%

14.4%

45.9%

Trump
by 6.2%

2024-07-15
2024-07-16

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 05:31

2024-07-16 00:00

Emerson [2]

42.7%

9.7%

47.6%

Trump
by 4.9%

2024-07-15
2024-07-16

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 05:25

2024-07-15 00:00

Civiqs w/3P

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-07-13
2024-07-16

2024-07-19
2024-07-19 22:33

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-07-10 12:00

Siena LV w/6P [4]

40.0%

18.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-07-09
2024-07-11

2024-07-15
2024-07-15 17:14

2024-07-10 12:00

Siena LV [4]

45.0%

7.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-07-09
2024-07-11

2024-07-15
2024-07-15 17:09

2024-07-10 12:00

Siena RV w/6P [4]

38.0%

21.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-07-09
2024-07-11

2024-07-15
2024-07-15 16:59

2024-07-10 12:00

Siena RV [4]

44.0%

8.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-07-09
2024-07-11

2024-07-15
2024-07-15 16:50

2024-07-09 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

40.0%

15.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-07-08
2024-07-10

2024-07-15
2024-07-16 04:53

2024-07-08 12:00

YouGov LV w/5P [2]

42.0%

13.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-07-04
2024-07-12

2024-07-15
2024-07-16 18:06

2024-07-08 12:00

YouGov RV w/5P [2]

40.0%

17.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-07-04
2024-07-12

2024-07-15
2024-07-16 17:49

2024-07-03 12:00

Morning Consult w/6P [2]

41.0%

15.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-07-01
2024-07-05

2024-07-06
2024-07-06 18:58

2024-07-03 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

44.0%

5.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-07-01
2024-07-05

2024-07-06
2024-07-06 16:40

2024-07-01 12:00

Emerson

43.0%

9.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-06-30
2024-07-02

2024-07-08
2024-07-09 00:15

2024-06-30 12:00

Remington

43.0%

9.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-06-29
2024-07-01

2024-07-08
2024-07-08 16:49

2024-06-29 12:00

1983 Labs w/4P

41.0%

13.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-06-28
2024-06-30

2024-07-08
2024-07-08 22:32

2024-06-28 00:00

Cygnal w/5P [2]

38.1%

19.5%

42.4%

Trump
by 4.3%

2024-06-27
2024-06-28

2024-07-01
2024-07-01 22:47

2024-06-28 00:00

Cygnal [2]

44.0%

7.7%

48.3%

Trump
by 4.3%

2024-06-27
2024-06-28

2024-07-01
2024-07-01 22:38

2024-06-17 00:00

Bullfinch

45.0%

11.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-06-14
2024-06-19

2024-07-02
2024-07-02 20:18

2024-06-16 00:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

42.2%

13.0%

44.8%

Trump
by 2.6%

2024-06-13
2024-06-18

2024-06-20
2024-06-21 04:40

2024-06-16 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

48.9%

0.0%

51.1%

Trump
by 2.2%

2024-06-13
2024-06-18

2024-06-20
2024-06-21 04:30

2024-06-16 00:00

Emerson [3]

45.2%

7.5%

47.3%

Trump
by 2.1%

2024-06-13
2024-06-18

2024-06-20
2024-06-21 04:22

2024-06-12 12:00

Innovative Research w/3P

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-06-07
2024-06-17

2024-07-05
2024-07-11 15:03

2024-06-10 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

42.0%

14.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-06-08
2024-06-11

2024-06-17
2024-06-17 17:18

2024-06-05 00:00

Marist LV w/6P [2]

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-06-03
2024-06-06

2024-06-12
2024-06-12 16:21

2024-06-05 00:00

Marist RV w/6P [2]

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-06-03
2024-06-06

2024-06-12
2024-06-12 16:12

2024-05-31 00:00

Mainstreet LV w/3P [4]

43.0%

15.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-05-30
2024-05-31

2024-06-04
2024-06-04 21:29

2024-05-31 00:00

Mainstreet RV w/3P [4]

41.0%

20.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-05-30
2024-05-31

2024-06-04
2024-06-04 21:23

2024-05-31 00:00

Mainstreet LV [4]

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-05-30
2024-05-31

2024-06-04
2024-06-04 21:18

2024-05-31 00:00

Mainstreet RV [4]

43.0%

12.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-05-30
2024-05-31

2024-06-04
2024-06-04 21:08

2024-05-17 12:00

KAConsulting w/6P [2]

39.0%

20.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-05-15
2024-05-19

2024-07-16
2024-07-16 16:06

2024-05-17 12:00

KAConsulting [2]

44.0%

12.0%

44.0%

TIED

2024-05-15
2024-05-19

2024-07-16
2024-07-16 16:05

2024-05-13 00:00

Prime w/5P [2]

45.0%

13.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2024-05-09
2024-05-16

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 19:31

2024-05-13 00:00

Prime [2]

51.0%

0.0%

49.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-05-09
2024-05-16

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 19:19

2024-05-10 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

46.0%

6.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-05-08
2024-05-12

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 20:47

2024-05-10 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

42.0%

13.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-05-08
2024-05-12

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 20:30

2024-05-10 00:00

BSG/GS [2]

45.0%

7.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-05-06
2024-05-13

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 03:38

2024-05-10 00:00

BSG/GS w/5P [2]

40.0%

17.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-05-06
2024-05-13

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 03:29

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena LV [4]

45.0%

7.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 07:18

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena LV w/6P [4]

37.0%

22.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 07:15

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena RV [4]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 07:14

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena RV w/6P [4]

36.0%

24.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 07:12

2024-05-03 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

41.0%

16.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-05-02
2024-05-04

2024-05-13
2024-05-13 18:26

2024-04-27 12:00

Fabrizio Lee [2]

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-04-24
2024-04-30

2024-05-07
2024-05-08 06:21

2024-04-27 12:00

Fabrizio Lee w/4P [2]

41.0%

13.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-04-24
2024-04-30

2024-05-07
2024-05-08 06:18

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

40.8%

14.2%

45.0%

Trump
by 4.2%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 15:22

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

48.8%

0.0%

51.2%

Trump
by 2.4%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 15:20

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson [3]

44.5%

8.1%

47.4%

Trump
by 2.9%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 15:18

2024-04-22 12:00

YouGov

49.0%

1.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-04-19
2024-04-25

2024-04-28
2024-04-28 18:50

2024-04-21 00:00

Kaplan

41.0%

13.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-04-20
2024-04-21

2024-04-26
2024-04-26 22:53

2024-04-20 12:00

Muhlenberg w/3P [2]

35.0%

30.0%

35.0%

TIED

2024-04-15
2024-04-25

2024-05-07
2024-05-08 06:15

2024-04-20 12:00

Muhlenberg [2]

41.0%

15.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-04-15
2024-04-25

2024-05-07
2024-05-08 06:12

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

49.5%

5.7%

44.8%

Biden
by 4.7%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-06 09:19

2024-04-14 00:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2024-04-11
2024-04-16

2024-04-18
2024-04-19 20:31

2024-04-14 00:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

42.0%

14.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-04-11
2024-04-16

2024-04-18
2024-04-19 20:28

2024-04-11 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-04-08
2024-04-13

2024-04-24
2024-04-24 15:29

2024-04-11 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

42.0%

15.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-04-08
2024-04-13

2024-04-24
2024-04-24 15:20

2024-04-01 00:00

Independent Center Total [2]

38.0%

18.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-03-29
2024-04-03

2024-04-19
2024-04-23 03:58

2024-04-01 00:00

Independent Center Definitely [2]

29.0%

35.0%

36.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-03-29
2024-04-03

2024-04-19
2024-04-23 03:52

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Lean [8]

48.9%

0.0%

51.1%

Trump
by 2.2%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-03
2024-04-19 21:54

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data [8]

42.0%

13.6%

44.4%

Trump
by 2.4%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-03
2024-04-19 21:52

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean w/4P [8]

41.6%

12.7%

45.7%

Trump
by 4.1%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-03
2024-04-19 21:50

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/4P [8]

40.0%

15.6%

44.4%

Trump
by 4.4%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-03
2024-04-19 21:48

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean w/3P [8]

39.7%

14.9%

45.4%

Trump
by 5.7%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-03
2024-04-19 21:46

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/3P [8]

38.8%

16.7%

44.5%

Trump
by 5.7%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-03
2024-04-19 21:45

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean [8]

41.3%

11.7%

47.0%

Trump
by 5.7%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-03
2024-04-19 21:43

2024-03-28 12:00

Big Data w/Gen3P [8]

40.3%

14.0%

45.7%

Trump
by 5.4%

2024-03-26
2024-03-30

2024-04-03
2024-04-19 21:41

2024-03-24 12:00

Bullfinch w/3P

44.0%

15.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2024-03-22
2024-03-26

2024-04-09
2024-04-10 02:35

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [4]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:51

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [4]

38.0%

21.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:49

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee w/4P [4]

40.0%

16.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:47

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee w/6P [4]

38.0%

21.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 05:44

2024-03-20 00:00

Franklin & Marshall w/4P [2]

42.0%

18.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-03-18
2024-03-21

2024-04-04
2024-04-04 15:38

2024-03-20 00:00

Franklin & Marshall [2]

48.0%

14.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2024-03-18
2024-03-21

2024-04-04
2024-04-04 15:35

2024-03-18 12:00

Emerson

43.8%

9.6%

46.6%

Trump
by 2.8%

2024-03-16
2024-03-20

2024-07-18
2024-07-19 06:05

2024-03-16 00:00

Echelon Total [2]

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-12
2024-03-19

2024-04-15
2024-04-15 16:43

2024-03-16 00:00

Echelon Definitely [2]

39.0%

18.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-12
2024-03-19

2024-04-15
2024-04-15 16:35

2024-03-16 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

41.0%

15.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-14
2024-03-17

2024-03-25
2024-03-25 19:01

2024-03-16 00:00

SSRS w/4P [2]

38.0%

22.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-03-13
2024-03-18

2024-03-22
2024-03-22 15:06

2024-03-16 00:00

SSRS [2]

46.0%

8.0%

46.0%

TIED

2024-03-13
2024-03-18

2024-03-22
2024-03-22 15:04

2024-03-12 00:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

40.2%

16.1%

43.7%

Trump
by 3.5%

2024-03-10
2024-03-13

2024-03-14
2024-03-15 02:59

2024-03-12 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

48.2%

0.0%

51.8%

Trump
by 3.6%

2024-03-10
2024-03-13

2024-03-14
2024-03-15 02:57

2024-03-12 00:00

Emerson [3]

43.2%

9.7%

47.1%

Trump
by 3.9%

2024-03-10
2024-03-13

2024-03-14
2024-03-15 02:54

2024-03-10 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2024-03-08
2024-03-12

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 11:31

2024-03-10 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

38.0%

18.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-03-08
2024-03-12

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 11:28

2024-03-09 12:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

42.0%

16.0%

42.0%

TIED

2024-03-07
2024-03-11

2024-03-13
2024-03-14 15:50

2024-03-09 12:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

47.0%

4.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-03-07
2024-03-11

2024-03-13
2024-03-14 15:43

2024-03-02 12:00

Susquehanna

50.0%

5.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2024-02-26
2024-03-07

2024-03-25
2024-03-25 20:16

2024-02-26 12:00

Axis w/5P

40.0%

21.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-02-25
2024-02-27

2024-03-05
2024-03-05 22:08

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

43.0%

8.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 07:02

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

36.0%

19.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 06:58

2024-02-15 12:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

37.0%

21.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-02-14
2024-02-16

2024-02-20
2024-02-21 02:42

2024-02-15 12:00

Emerson [2]

43.0%

12.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-02-14
2024-02-16

2024-02-20
2024-02-21 02:38

2024-02-07 12:00

Chism

32.0%

28.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-02-06
2024-02-08

2024-02-09
2024-02-10 06:06

2024-01-24 00:00

Public Opinion Strategies

42.0%

10.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-01-22
2024-01-25

2024-02-26
2024-02-27 00:56

2024-01-23 00:00

Franklin & Marshall w/4P [2]

42.0%

21.0%

37.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-28

2024-02-01
2024-02-02 03:39

2024-01-23 00:00

Franklin & Marshall [2]

43.0%

15.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-28

2024-02-01
2024-02-02 03:35

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata LV 2W [3]

48.6%

0.0%

51.4%

Trump
by 2.8%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 03:02

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata LV [3]

42.0%

11.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 03:01

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata All [3]

38.0%

16.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 02:59

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

45.0%

7.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 19:39

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

40.0%

17.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 19:33

2024-01-18 12:00

Susquehanna

46.8%

13.9%

39.3%

Biden
by 7.5%

2024-01-15
2024-01-21

2024-01-23
2024-01-23 17:13

2024-01-06 12:00

Quinnipiac w/5P [2]

41.0%

20.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-01-04
2024-01-08

2024-01-10
2024-01-12 05:59

2024-01-06 12:00

Quinnipiac [2]

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2024-01-04
2024-01-08

2024-01-10
2024-01-12 05:55

2023-12-29 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

39.0%

21.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2023-12-28
2023-12-30

2024-01-08
2024-01-08 22:46

2023-12-16 12:00

Bullfinch Total [2]

45.0%

10.0%

45.0%

TIED

2023-12-14
2023-12-18

2023-12-18
2023-12-19 03:17

2023-12-16 12:00

Bullfinch Definitely [2]

38.0%

27.0%

35.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2023-12-14
2023-12-18

2023-12-18
2023-12-19 03:14

2023-12-05 12:00

Change Research

40.0%

14.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2023-12-03
2023-12-07

2024-01-08
2024-01-08 22:10

2023-12-02 00:00

Muhlenberg

42.0%

17.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-11-20
2023-12-13

2023-12-19
2023-12-20 17:52

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

44.0%

10.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 02:09

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

38.0%

23.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 02:06

2023-11-28 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

37.0%

19.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2023-11-27
2023-11-29

2023-12-05
2023-12-06 02:01

2023-11-18 00:00

Big Data w/5P [3]

35.4%

24.5%

40.1%

Trump
by 4.7%

2023-11-16
2023-11-19

2023-11-19
2024-04-19 22:09

2023-11-18 00:00

Big Data w/3P [3]

36.0%

24.1%

39.9%

Trump
by 3.9%

2023-11-16
2023-11-19

2023-11-19
2024-04-19 22:07

2023-11-18 00:00

Big Data [3]

37.0%

22.5%

40.5%

Trump
by 3.5%

2023-11-16
2023-11-19

2023-11-19
2024-04-19 22:04

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult w/4P [2]

38.0%

21.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 20:27

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 20:22

2023-11-02 00:00

Emerson RV [2]

43.2%

10.4%

46.4%

Trump
by 3.2%

2023-10-30
2023-11-04

2023-11-09
2023-11-10 01:52

2023-11-02 00:00

Emerson LV [2]

45.2%

5.7%

49.1%

Trump
by 3.9%

2023-10-30
2023-11-04

2023-11-09
2023-11-10 01:45

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV w/3P [6]

36.0%

28.0%

36.0%

TIED

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-07 17:12

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV w/3P [6]

35.0%

30.0%

35.0%

TIED

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-07 17:06

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV Definitely [6]

35.0%

27.0%

38.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 18:07

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV w/Lean [6]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 18:04

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV Definitely [6]

34.0%

30.0%

36.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 16:23

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV w/Lean [6]

44.0%

8.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 16:19

2023-10-17 00:00

Franklin & Marshall

44.0%

14.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-10-11
2023-10-22

2023-10-26
2023-10-26 15:50

2023-10-08 00:00

Morning Consult

45.0%

9.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2023-10-05
2023-10-10

2023-10-19
2023-10-19 16:07

2023-10-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]

39.0%

22.0%

39.0%

TIED

2023-10-07
2023-10-08

2023-10-15
2023-10-16 05:02

2023-10-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton [2]

43.0%

15.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-10-07
2023-10-08

2023-10-15
2023-10-16 04:57

2023-10-03 00:00

Emerson

36.4%

18.3%

45.3%

Trump
by 8.9%

2023-10-01
2023-10-04

2023-10-11
2023-10-12 05:27

2023-09-30 12:00

Quinnipiac

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2023-09-28
2023-10-02

2023-10-04
2023-10-05 05:14

2023-09-26 00:00

PPP

48.0%

7.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2023-09-25
2023-09-26

2023-09-29
2023-09-29 15:57

2023-09-24 00:00

Susquehanna

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-09-19
2023-09-28

2023-10-05
2023-10-05 15:37

2023-09-16 00:00

NPA

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-09-14
2023-09-17

2023-09-21
2023-09-22 01:58

2023-08-15 00:00

Franklin & Marshall

42.0%

18.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-08-09
2023-08-20

2023-08-24
2023-08-24 19:33

2023-06-24 12:00

Quinnipiac

46.0%

7.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2023-06-22
2023-06-26

2023-06-28
2023-06-29 06:27

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime w/NL [2]

38.0%

19.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-08-15 14:36

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime [2]

50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

TIED

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-07-14 05:52

2023-06-18 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]

43.0%

18.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2023-06-17
2023-06-19

2023-06-20
2023-08-11 06:19

2023-06-18 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]

48.0%

8.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2023-06-17
2023-06-19

2023-06-20
2023-06-21 06:21

2023-04-12 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

46.0%

12.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2023-04-11
2023-04-13

2023-04-16
2023-04-17 16:18

2023-04-02 00:00

Franklin & Marshall

36.0%

29.0%

35.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-03-27
2023-04-07

2023-04-13
2023-04-13 22:38

2023-02-23 00:00

Susquehanna

48.0%

11.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2023-02-19
2023-02-26

2023-03-02
2023-03-25 02:52

2022-11-04 12:00

Targoz LV [2]

46.0%

2.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2022-11-02
2022-11-06

2022-11-07
2023-03-24 03:49

2022-11-04 12:00

Targoz RV [2]

48.0%

4.0%

48.0%

TIED

2022-11-02
2022-11-06

2022-11-07
2023-03-24 03:47

2022-10-30 00:00

Emerson

44.2%

11.5%

44.3%

Trump
by 0.1%

2022-10-28
2022-10-31

2022-11-03
2023-03-24 02:33

2022-09-25 00:00

Emerson

44.9%

9.2%

45.9%

Trump
by 1.0%

2022-09-23
2022-09-26

2022-09-29
2023-03-23 02:39

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Definitely [2]

39.0%

31.0%

30.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-07-27 03:20

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Total [2]

48.0%

9.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-03-22 01:51

2022-08-23 00:00

Emerson

41.7%

11.1%

47.2%

Trump
by 5.5%

2022-08-22
2022-08-23

2022-08-25
2023-03-21 04:13

2022-07-23 12:00

PEM

41.7%

13.8%

44.4%

Trump
by 2.7%

2022-07-22
2022-07-24

2022-07-28
2023-03-21 02:45

2022-07-20 12:00

Blueprint

42.0%

17.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2022-07-19
2022-07-21

2022-07-26
2023-03-21 02:01

2022-02-16 00:00

Blueprint

45.1%

15.0%

39.9%

Biden
by 5.2%

2022-02-15
2022-02-16

2022-02-22
2023-03-20 14:20

2021-11-14 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]

39.0%

13.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2021-11-11
2021-11-16

2021-11-21
2023-07-04 00:48

2021-11-14 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [2]

45.0%

4.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2021-11-11
2021-11-16

2021-11-21
2023-03-20 13:33

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

50.0%

1.2%

48.8%

DEM
by 1.2%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-17 05:34

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.5%

4.4%

48.2%

REP
by 0.7%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 04:57

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.0%

1.4%

46.6%

DEM
by 5.4%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:08

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

54.5%

1.3%

44.2%

DEM
by 10.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-05 08:39

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

50.9%

0.7%

48.4%

DEM
by 2.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:04

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

50.6%

3.0%

46.4%

DEM
by 4.2%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:47

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

49.2%

10.9%

40.0%

DEM
by 9.2%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 19:43

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

45.2%

18.7%

36.1%

DEM
by 9.0%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:41

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

48.4%

0.9%

50.7%

REP
by 2.3%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:47

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

46.0%

0.7%

53.3%

REP
by 7.4%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:55

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

42.5%

7.9%

49.6%

REP
by 7.1%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:10

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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