2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Arizona [11 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-06-12 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-06-17 18:00 UTC

 

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-06-12 12:00

Rasmussen w/5P [2]

37.0%

22.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-06-11
2024-06-13

2024-06-14
2024-06-17 18:00

2024-06-12 12:00

Rasmussen [2]

40.0%

13.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-06-11
2024-06-13

2024-06-14
2024-06-17 17:57

2024-06-10 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

38.0%

22.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-06-08
2024-06-11

2024-06-17
2024-06-17 17:00

2024-06-03 00:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

41.0%

13.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-06-01
2024-06-04

2024-06-06
2024-06-07 04:50

2024-06-03 00:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

46.0%

3.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-06-01
2024-06-04

2024-06-06
2024-06-07 04:47

2024-06-01 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [4]

38.0%

17.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-05-28
2024-06-04

2024-06-12
2024-06-12 21:24

2024-06-01 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [4]

44.0%

6.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-05-28
2024-06-04

2024-06-12
2024-06-12 21:23

2024-06-01 00:00

Fabrizio Lee wo/Leans w/5P [4]

36.0%

21.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-05-28
2024-06-04

2024-06-12
2024-06-12 21:21

2024-06-01 00:00

Fabrizio Lee w/5P [4]

37.0%

18.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-05-28
2024-06-04

2024-06-12
2024-06-12 21:20

2024-05-20 12:00

Mainstreet LV w/3P [4]

39.3%

17.9%

42.8%

Trump
by 3.5%

2024-05-19
2024-05-21

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 04:35

2024-05-20 12:00

Mainstreet RV w/3P [4]

36.6%

24.6%

38.8%

Trump
by 2.2%

2024-05-19
2024-05-21

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 04:33

2024-05-20 12:00

Mainstreet LV [4]

45.1%

11.7%

43.2%

Biden
by 1.9%

2024-05-19
2024-05-21

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 04:31

2024-05-20 12:00

Mainstreet RV [4]

40.9%

17.9%

41.2%

Trump
by 0.3%

2024-05-19
2024-05-21

2024-05-23
2024-05-24 04:29

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-05-13 12:00

YouGov w/3P [2]

40.0%

16.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-05-10
2024-05-16

2024-05-19
2024-05-20 17:25

2024-05-13 12:00

YouGov [2]

47.0%

1.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-05-10
2024-05-16

2024-05-19
2024-05-20 17:22

2024-05-13 00:00

Prime w/5P [2]

40.0%

16.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-05-09
2024-05-16

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 18:34

2024-05-13 00:00

Prime [2]

49.0%

0.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-05-09
2024-05-16

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 18:31

2024-05-11 00:00

Noble Predictive w/5P [2]

36.0%

21.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-05-07
2024-05-14

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 18:24

2024-05-11 00:00

Noble Predictive [2]

41.0%

15.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-05-07
2024-05-14

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 18:21

2024-05-10 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-05-08
2024-05-12

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 15:31

2024-05-10 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

40.0%

15.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-05-08
2024-05-12

2024-05-22
2024-05-23 15:28

2024-05-10 00:00

BSG/GS [2]

44.0%

11.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2024-05-06
2024-05-13

2024-05-23
2024-05-23 22:14

2024-05-10 00:00

BSG/GS w/5P [2]

37.0%

22.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-05-06
2024-05-13

2024-05-23
2024-05-23 21:53

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena LV [4]

43.0%

8.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 06:17

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena LV w/6P [4]

35.0%

21.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 06:14

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena RV [4]

42.0%

9.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 06:10

2024-05-04 00:00

Siena RV w/6P [4]

33.0%

25.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-04-28
2024-05-09

2024-05-13
2024-05-14 06:04

2024-05-03 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

42.0%

14.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-05-02
2024-05-04

2024-05-13
2024-05-13 17:51

2024-04-28 12:00

Data Orbital w/3P

38.8%

23.1%

38.1%

Biden
by 0.7%

2024-04-27
2024-04-29

2024-05-07
2024-05-08 05:57

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

40.2%

16.2%

43.6%

Trump
by 3.4%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 15:08

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

47.7%

0.0%

52.3%

Trump
by 4.6%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 15:07

2024-04-27 12:00

Emerson [3]

44.4%

7.7%

47.9%

Trump
by 3.5%

2024-04-25
2024-04-29

2024-04-30
2024-04-30 15:04

2024-04-21 00:00

Kaplan

43.0%

10.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-04-20
2024-04-21

2024-04-26
2024-04-26 22:42

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

39.7%

9.0%

51.3%

Trump
by 11.6%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-05 04:28

2024-04-11 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

42.0%

9.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-04-08
2024-04-13

2024-04-24
2024-04-24 14:20

2024-04-11 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

40.0%

14.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-04-08
2024-04-13

2024-04-24
2024-04-24 14:14

2024-04-11 00:00

Tyson w/6P

33.0%

28.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-04-10
2024-04-11

2024-04-16
2024-04-17 01:25

2024-04-09 12:00

Fabrizio Lee [3]

44.0%

8.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-04-07
2024-04-11

2024-04-15
2024-04-15 15:10

2024-04-09 12:00

Fabrizio Lee w/4P [3]

39.0%

17.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-04-07
2024-04-11

2024-04-15
2024-04-15 15:08

2024-04-09 12:00

Fabrizio Lee w/6P [3]

37.0%

21.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-04-07
2024-04-11

2024-04-15
2024-04-15 15:02

2024-04-01 00:00

Bullfinch Total [2]

38.0%

18.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-03-29
2024-04-03

2024-04-12
2024-04-18 19:10

2024-04-01 00:00

Bullfinch Definitely [2]

28.0%

36.0%

36.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-03-29
2024-04-03

2024-04-12
2024-04-18 19:07

2024-03-30 00:00

RABA

36.0%

25.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-28
2024-03-31

2024-04-02
2024-04-02 20:48

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [4]

42.0%

11.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 04:19

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [4]

34.0%

25.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 04:10

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee w/4P [4]

37.0%

20.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 03:59

2024-03-21 00:00

Fabrizio Lee w/6P [4]

34.0%

27.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-03-17
2024-03-24

2024-04-02
2024-04-03 03:48

2024-03-16 00:00

Echelon Total [2]

45.0%

4.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-03-12
2024-03-19

2024-04-15
2024-04-15 16:03

2024-03-16 00:00

Echelon Definitely [2]

40.0%

15.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-03-12
2024-03-19

2024-04-15
2024-04-15 16:00

2024-03-16 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

41.0%

15.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-03-14
2024-03-17

2024-03-25
2024-03-25 18:35

2024-03-16 00:00

North Star w/4P [2]

33.0%

30.0%

37.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-14
2024-03-17

2024-03-20
2024-03-21 02:08

2024-03-16 00:00

North Star [2]

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-14
2024-03-17

2024-03-20
2024-03-21 02:05

2024-03-14 00:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

37.9%

16.3%

45.8%

Trump
by 7.9%

2024-03-12
2024-03-15

2024-03-20
2024-03-21 02:33

2024-03-14 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

47.7%

0.0%

52.3%

Trump
by 4.6%

2024-03-12
2024-03-15

2024-03-20
2024-03-21 02:32

2024-03-14 00:00

Emerson [3]

44.1%

7.6%

48.3%

Trump
by 4.2%

2024-03-12
2024-03-15

2024-03-20
2024-03-21 02:28

2024-03-11 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

43.0%

9.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-03-08
2024-03-14

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 10:35

2024-03-11 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

37.0%

20.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-03-08
2024-03-14

2024-03-26
2024-03-26 10:31

2024-03-09 12:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

39.0%

18.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-07
2024-03-11

2024-03-13
2024-03-14 16:03

2024-03-09 12:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-03-07
2024-03-11

2024-03-13
2024-03-14 15:58

2024-02-24 00:00

Rasmussen

40.0%

13.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2024-02-21
2024-02-26

2024-02-28
2024-02-29 04:03

2024-02-18 00:00

Emerson w/5P [2]

37.1%

20.3%

42.6%

Trump
by 5.5%

2024-02-16
2024-02-19

2024-02-22
2024-02-23 02:12

2024-02-18 00:00

Emerson [2]

42.5%

11.9%

45.6%

Trump
by 3.1%

2024-02-16
2024-02-19

2024-02-22
2024-02-23 02:09

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

43.0%

8.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 06:15

2024-02-15 12:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

36.0%

19.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2024-02-12
2024-02-18

2024-02-28
2024-03-01 06:12

2024-01-31 00:00

JL Partners

41.0%

14.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-01-29
2024-02-01

2024-02-02
2024-02-03 21:03

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata LV 2W [3]

49.6%

0.0%

50.4%

Trump
by 0.8%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 03:08

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata LV [3]

41.0%

14.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 03:07

2024-01-20 12:00

Focaldata All [3]

39.0%

18.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-01-17
2024-01-23

2024-03-01
2024-03-02 03:05

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

44.0%

9.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 18:54

2024-01-19 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

35.0%

22.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-01-16
2024-01-21

2024-01-31
2024-01-31 18:51

2023-12-29 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

35.0%

24.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2023-12-28
2023-12-30

2024-01-08
2024-01-08 22:23

2023-12-16 12:00

Bullfinch Total [2]

40.0%

10.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2023-12-14
2023-12-18

2023-12-18
2023-12-19 03:09

2023-12-16 12:00

Bullfinch Definitely [2]

32.0%

29.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2023-12-14
2023-12-18

2023-12-18
2023-12-19 03:05

2023-12-05 00:00

VCreek/AMG w/6P [3]

32.0%

28.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2023-12-01
2023-12-08

2023-12-19
2023-12-20 02:27

2023-12-05 00:00

VCreek/AMG w/3P [3]

35.0%

25.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-12-01
2023-12-08

2023-12-19
2023-12-20 02:12

2023-12-05 00:00

VCreek/AMG [3]

41.0%

13.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-12-01
2023-12-08

2023-12-19
2023-12-20 02:07

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult [2]

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 01:23

2023-12-02 00:00

Morning Consult w/5P [2]

37.0%

23.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-06

2023-12-14
2023-12-15 01:20

2023-11-29 12:00

JL Partners [2]

43.0%

9.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-01

2023-12-04
2023-12-05 06:46

2023-11-29 12:00

JL Partners w/4P [2]

34.0%

27.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-11-27
2023-12-01

2023-12-04
2023-12-05 06:44

2023-11-28 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

33.0%

27.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2023-11-27
2023-11-29

2023-12-05
2023-12-06 01:38

2023-11-17 00:00

Tulchin

42.0%

16.0%

42.0%

TIED

2023-11-13
2023-11-20

2023-12-12
2023-12-13 17:52

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult w/4P [2]

36.0%

24.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 19:46

2023-11-03 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

42.0%

12.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-10-30
2023-11-07

2023-11-10
2023-11-10 19:42

2023-11-02 00:00

Emerson RV [2]

40.6%

16.6%

42.8%

Trump
by 2.2%

2023-10-30
2023-11-04

2023-11-09
2023-11-10 02:16

2023-11-02 00:00

Emerson LV [2]

43.7%

10.8%

45.5%

Trump
by 1.8%

2023-10-30
2023-11-04

2023-11-09
2023-11-10 02:14

2023-10-28 12:00

Noble

38.0%

16.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2023-10-25
2023-10-31

2023-11-13
2023-11-14 16:57

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV w/3P [6]

34.0%

32.0%

34.0%

TIED

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-07 16:34

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV w/3P [6]

33.0%

34.0%

33.0%

TIED

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-07 16:32

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV Definitely [6]

35.0%

25.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 17:16

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena LV w/Lean [6]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 17:14

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV Definitely [6]

33.0%

29.0%

38.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 15:47

2023-10-28 12:00

Siena RV w/Lean [6]

44.0%

7.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-10-22
2023-11-03

2023-11-05
2023-11-05 15:35

2023-10-08 00:00

Morning Consult

43.0%

10.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-10-05
2023-10-10

2023-10-19
2023-10-19 15:44

2023-10-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]

37.0%

21.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-10-07
2023-10-08

2023-10-15
2023-10-16 01:53

2023-10-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton [2]

39.0%

17.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2023-10-07
2023-10-08

2023-10-15
2023-10-16 01:48

2023-08-03 12:00

Emerson w/3P [2]

40.6%

17.6%

41.8%

Trump
by 1.2%

2023-08-02
2023-08-04

2023-08-08
2023-08-09 00:55

2023-08-03 12:00

Emerson [2]

43.2%

12.1%

44.7%

Trump
by 1.5%

2023-08-02
2023-08-04

2023-08-08
2023-08-09 00:51

2023-07-23 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]

45.0%

11.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-07-22
2023-07-24

2023-07-26
2023-07-27 02:28

2023-07-23 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]

40.0%

22.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-07-22
2023-07-24

2023-07-26
2023-07-27 02:23

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime w/NL [2]

31.0%

28.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-08-15 14:19

2023-06-21 12:00

Prime [2]

48.0%

0.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2023-06-14
2023-06-28

2023-07-13
2023-07-14 05:36

2023-06-18 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]

40.0%

24.0%

36.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2023-06-17
2023-06-19

2023-06-20
2023-08-11 06:05

2023-06-18 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]

44.0%

15.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2023-06-17
2023-06-19

2023-06-20
2023-06-21 06:05

2023-05-16 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

46.0%

10.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-05-15
2023-05-17

2023-05-19
2023-05-19 16:36

2023-04-12 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

45.0%

11.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2023-04-11
2023-04-13

2023-04-16
2023-04-17 16:24

2023-03-14 00:00

Rasmussen

39.0%

11.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2023-03-13
2023-03-14

2023-03-17
2023-03-25 07:06

2023-02-05 00:00

OH Predictive

39.0%

24.0%

37.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-01-31
2023-02-09

2023-02-23
2023-03-25 00:53

2023-01-07 00:00

Blueprint

35.2%

26.5%

38.3%

Trump
by 3.1%

2023-01-05
2023-01-08

2023-01-11
2023-03-25 00:19

2022-11-09 00:00

Rasmussen

47.0%

8.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2022-11-08
2022-11-09

2022-12-02
2023-03-24 06:46

2022-11-04 12:00

Targoz LV [2]

45.0%

2.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2022-11-02
2022-11-06

2022-11-07
2023-03-24 03:43

2022-11-04 12:00

Targoz RV [2]

41.0%

5.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 13.0%

2022-11-02
2022-11-06

2022-11-07
2023-03-24 03:41

2022-10-31 12:00

Emerson

42.0%

11.8%

46.2%

Trump
by 4.2%

2022-10-30
2022-11-01

2022-11-04
2023-03-24 03:06

2022-09-07 00:00

Emerson

41.0%

14.8%

44.2%

Trump
by 3.2%

2022-09-06
2022-09-07

2022-09-09
2023-03-21 17:08

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Definitely [2]

33.0%

32.0%

35.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-07-27 02:48

2022-09-04 00:00

Echelon Total [2]

43.0%

10.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2022-08-31
2022-09-07

2022-09-13
2023-03-22 00:38

2022-05-14 12:00

Blueprint

40.8%

18.5%

40.7%

Biden
by 0.1%

2022-05-12
2022-05-16

2022-05-18
2023-03-20 16:22

2021-11-14 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]

40.0%

16.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2021-11-11
2021-11-16

2021-11-21
2023-07-04 00:38

2021-11-14 00:00

Fabrizio Lee Total [2]

43.0%

6.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2021-11-11
2021-11-16

2021-11-21
2023-03-20 13:12

2021-06-20 12:00

Bendixen & Amandi

51.0%

5.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2021-06-17
2021-06-23

2021-06-29
2023-03-20 07:05

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

49.4%

1.6%

49.1%

DEM
by 0.3%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 01:11

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

45.1%

6.2%

48.7%

REP
by 3.5%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 04:43

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

44.6%

1.8%

53.7%

REP
by 9.1%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-21 23:07

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

45.1%

1.2%

53.6%

REP
by 8.5%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:38

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

44.4%

0.7%

54.9%

REP
by 10.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-13 23:27

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

44.7%

4.3%

51.0%

REP
by 6.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-05 07:10

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

46.5%

9.2%

44.3%

DEM
by 2.2%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:13

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

36.5%

25.0%

38.5%

REP
by 2.0%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:06

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

38.7%

1.3%

60.0%

REP
by 21.2%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 03:08

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

32.5%

1.0%

66.4%

REP
by 33.9%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 06:15

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

28.2%

11.2%

60.6%

REP
by 32.4%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:10

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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