2024 Electoral College
Biden vs Trump - Tennessee [11 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-03-24 12:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2024-04-10 17:52 UTC
Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages. This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election! All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Biden vs DeSantis Biden vs Haley Harris vs Trump Newsom vs Trump Biden vs Pence || Comparison
Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2024-03-24 12:00
Targoz LV w/3P [8]
28.0%
24.0%
48.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2024-03-15 2024-04-02
2024-04-10 2024-04-10 17:52
2024-03-24 12:00
Targoz RV w/3P [8]
25.0%
27.0%
48.0%
Trump by 23.0%
2024-03-15 2024-04-02
2024-04-10 2024-04-10 17:50
2024-03-24 12:00
Targoz LV w/NV w/3P [8]
28.0%
25.0%
47.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2024-03-15 2024-04-02
2024-04-10 2024-04-10 17:48
2024-03-24 12:00
Targoz RV w/NV w/3P [8]
25.0%
27.0%
48.0%
Trump by 23.0%
2024-03-15 2024-04-02
2024-04-10 2024-04-10 17:47
2024-03-24 12:00
Targoz LV w/NV [8]
31.0%
14.0%
55.0%
Trump by 24.0%
2024-03-15 2024-04-02
2024-04-10 2024-04-10 17:45
2024-03-24 12:00
Targoz RV w/NV [8]
29.0%
14.0%
57.0%
Trump by 28.0%
2024-03-15 2024-04-02
2024-04-10 2024-04-10 17:43
2024-03-24 12:00
Targoz LV [8]
33.0%
9.0%
58.0%
Trump by 25.0%
2024-03-15 2024-04-02
2024-04-10 2024-04-10 17:40
2024-03-24 12:00
Targoz RV [8]
31.0%
9.0%
60.0%
Trump by 29.0%
2024-03-15 2024-04-02
2024-04-10 2024-04-10 17:39
2024-03-02 00:00
Mainstreet LV [2]
34.4%
6.7%
58.9%
Trump by 24.5%
2024-02-29 2024-03-03
2024-03-07 2024-03-07 22:28
2024-03-02 00:00
Mainstreet RV [2]
34.2%
7.4%
58.4%
Trump by 24.2%
2024-02-29 2024-03-03
2024-03-07 2024-03-07 22:26
2023-12-21 12:00
Targoz LV w/3P [4]
25.0%
24.0%
51.0%
Trump by 26.0%
2023-12-14 2023-12-28
2024-01-04 2024-01-04 20:29
2023-12-21 12:00
Targoz RV w/3P [4]
23.0%
29.0%
48.0%
Trump by 25.0%
2023-12-14 2023-12-28
2024-01-04 2024-01-04 20:27
2023-12-21 12:00
Targoz LV [4]
31.0%
6.0%
63.0%
Trump by 32.0%
2023-12-14 2023-12-28
2024-01-04 2024-01-04 20:24
2023-12-21 12:00
Targoz RV [4]
30.0%
9.0%
61.0%
Trump by 31.0%
2023-12-14 2023-12-28
2024-01-04 2024-01-04 20:20
2023-11-23 12:00
SSRS w/3P
26.0%
29.0%
45.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2023-11-14 2023-12-02
2023-12-14 2023-12-14 19:04
2023-11-08 00:00
Siena
20.0%
31.0%
49.0%
Trump by 29.0%
2023-11-05 2023-11-10
2023-12-17 2023-12-18 04:55
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Biden <> Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2023-10-11 00:00
Targoz LV w/3P [6]
23.0%
24.0%
53.0%
Trump by 30.0%
2023-10-05 2023-10-16
2023-10-26 2023-10-26 15:44
2023-10-11 00:00
Targoz RV w/3P [6]
21.0%
27.0%
52.0%
Trump by 31.0%
2023-10-05 2023-10-16
2023-10-26 2023-10-26 15:40
2023-10-11 00:00
Targoz LV w/3P [6]
23.0%
29.0%
48.0%
Trump by 25.0%
2023-10-05 2023-10-16
2023-10-26 2023-10-26 15:37
2023-10-11 00:00
Targoz RV w/3P [6]
18.0%
36.0%
46.0%
Trump by 28.0%
2023-10-05 2023-10-16
2023-10-26 2023-10-26 15:36
2023-10-11 00:00
Targoz LV [6]
30.0%
9.0%
61.0%
Trump by 31.0%
2023-10-05 2023-10-16
2023-10-26 2023-10-26 15:31
2023-10-11 00:00
Targoz RV [6]
29.0%
12.0%
59.0%
Trump by 30.0%
2023-10-05 2023-10-16
2023-10-26 2023-10-26 15:28
2023-10-03 00:00
Emerson
22.0%
22.7%
55.3%
Trump by 33.3%
2023-10-01 2023-10-04
2023-10-17 2023-10-17 19:45
2023-06-18 12:00
Targoz RV [2]
32.0%
17.0%
51.0%
Trump by 19.0%
2023-06-14 2023-06-22
2023-07-06 2023-07-07 17:49
2023-06-18 12:00
Targoz LV [2]
34.0%
12.0%
54.0%
Trump by 20.0%
2023-06-14 2023-06-22
2023-07-06 2023-07-07 17:45
2023-04-21 12:00
SSRS
26.0%
32.0%
42.0%
Trump by 16.0%
2023-04-19 2023-04-23
2023-05-03 2023-05-03 16:37
2020-11-03 12:00
Election2020
37.5%
1.9%
60.7%
REP by 23.2%
2020-11-03 2020-11-03
2020-11-03 2023-03-17 05:51
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
34.7%
4.6%
60.7%
REP by 26.0%
2016-11-08 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 2019-02-24 17:51
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
39.1%
1.4%
59.5%
REP by 20.4%
2012-11-06 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:12
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
41.8%
1.3%
56.9%
REP by 15.1%
2008-11-04 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 2013-10-06 01:51
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
42.5%
0.7%
56.8%
REP by 14.3%
2004-11-02 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:10
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
47.3%
1.6%
51.2%
REP by 3.9%
2000-11-07 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 2013-11-10 11:02
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
48.0%
6.4%
45.6%
DEM by 2.4%
1996-11-06 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 2014-02-18 15:43
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
47.1%
10.5%
42.4%
DEM by 4.7%
1992-11-03 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:55
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
41.6%
0.6%
57.9%
REP by 16.3%
1988-11-08 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:59
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
41.6%
0.6%
57.8%
REP by 16.3%
1984-11-06 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 2014-05-24 07:05
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
48.4%
2.9%
48.7%
REP by 0.3%
1980-11-04 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:17
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.
Follow @ElectionGraphs@newsie.social on Mastodon.
Like Election Graphs on Facebook.
Read the Election Graphs blog posts.
If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com
If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Donation Page .
The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024 ".
For more information, read the FAQ .
Page cached at 2024-04-26 00:20:06 UTC
Original calculation time was 12.568 seconds