2024 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - Nebraska (CD1) [1 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-10-25 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-10-30 17:11 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

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2024 Nebraska (CD1) [1 EV] Poll Average

 

Harris Trump
 

 

2024 Nebraska (CD1) [1 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Harris Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Harris Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-10-25 00:00

YouGov w/5P

43.0%

6.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2024-10-21
2024-10-28

2024-10-30
2024-10-30 17:11

2024-10-25 00:00

Siena LV w/5P [2]

43.0%

9.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-10-23
2024-10-26

2024-10-28
2024-10-28 19:15

2024-10-25 00:00

Siena LV [2]

45.0%

6.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-10-23
2024-10-26

2024-10-28
2024-10-28 19:12

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

41.3%

2.3%

56.3%

REP
by 15.0%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-16 15:16

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

35.5%

8.4%

56.2%

REP
by 20.7%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:34

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

40.8%

1.7%

57.4%

REP
by 16.6%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:43

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

44.3%

1.6%

54.1%

REP
by 9.8%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:21

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

35.7%

1.3%

63.0%

REP
by 27.3%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:38

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

35.9%

5.2%

58.9%

REP
by 23.0%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:10

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

38.1%

12.2%

49.7%

REP
by 11.7%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 15:57

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

32.4%

24.5%

43.0%

REP
by 10.6%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:11

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988(Est)

42.8%

0.6%

56.6%

REP
by 13.9%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 18:57

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984(Est)

33.1%

0.7%

66.3%

REP
by 33.2%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 04:05

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

27.9%

9.6%

62.5%

REP
by 34.6%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:30

 

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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