2024 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - Arizona [11 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-11-04 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-11-05 06:46 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary

2024 Arizona [11 EV] Poll Average

Harris		Trump

2024 Arizona [11 EV] Probabilities

Harris		Trump

If the election was now:

Harris		Trump
/td>

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Harris	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2024-11-04 00:00	AtlasIntel [2]	46.5%	1.9%	51.6%	Trump by 5.1%	2024-11-03 2024-11-04	2024-11-04 2024-11-05 03:29
2024-11-04 00:00	AtlasIntel w/4P [2]	45.9%	3.1%	51.0%	Trump by 5.1%	2024-11-03 2024-11-04	2024-11-04 2024-11-05 03:26
2024-11-03 00:00	Victory Insights	48.4%	2.4%	49.2%	Trump by 0.8%	2024-11-02 2024-11-03	2024-11-04 2024-11-04 20:45
2024-11-02 12:00	Trafalgar	47.1%	3.7%	49.2%	Trump by 2.1%	2024-11-01 2024-11-03	2024-11-04 2024-11-05 06:46
2024-11-02 12:00	Patriot Polling	47.6%	1.3%	51.1%	Trump by 3.5%	2024-11-01 2024-11-03	2024-11-03 2024-11-03 19:44
2024-11-02 00:00	InsiderAdvantage	46.0%	5.0%	49.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-11-01 2024-11-02	2024-11-03 2024-11-04 02:49
2024-11-02 00:00	AtlasIntel [2]	45.8%	1.9%	52.3%	Trump by 6.5%	2024-11-01 2024-11-02	2024-11-02 2024-11-03 08:19
2024-11-02 00:00	AtlasIntel w/4P [2]	45.1%	3.0%	51.9%	Trump by 6.8%	2024-11-01 2024-11-02	2024-11-02 2024-11-03 08:17

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Harris	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2024-11-01 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [2]	48.7%	0.5%	50.8%	Trump by 2.1%	2024-10-30 2024-11-02	2024-11-04 2024-11-04 17:33
2024-11-01 00:00	Emerson [2]	48.3%	1.4%	50.3%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-10-30 2024-11-02	2024-11-04 2024-11-04 17:31
2024-10-31 00:00	SoCal	48.7%	1.8%	49.5%	Trump by 0.8%	2024-10-30 2024-10-31	2024-11-01 2024-11-01 22:38
2024-10-31 00:00	AtlasIntel [2]	46.8%	2.2%	51.0%	Trump by 4.2%	2024-10-30 2024-10-31	2024-10-31 2024-11-01 17:30
2024-10-31 00:00	AtlasIntel w/4P [2]	45.9%	3.3%	50.8%	Trump by 4.9%	2024-10-30 2024-10-31	2024-10-31 2024-11-01 17:27
2024-10-30 12:00	OnMessage	47.0%	3.0%	50.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-10-29 2024-10-31	2024-11-01 2024-11-02 10:13
2024-10-30 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	47.0%	5.0%	48.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-28 2024-10-31	2024-11-01 2024-11-02 00:12
2024-10-29 12:00	Siena RV wo/Lean w/4P [5]	41.0%	15.0%	44.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-10-25 2024-11-02	2024-11-03 2024-11-03 16:47
2024-10-29 12:00	Siena RV Combined w/4P [5]	42.0%	11.0%	47.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-10-25 2024-11-02	2024-11-03 2024-11-03 16:45
2024-10-29 12:00	Siena RV [5]	44.0%	8.0%	48.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-10-25 2024-11-02	2024-11-03 2024-11-03 16:41
2024-10-29 12:00	Siena LV w/4P [5]	44.0%	8.0%	48.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-10-25 2024-11-02	2024-11-03 2024-11-03 16:39
2024-10-29 12:00	Siena LV [5]	45.0%	6.0%	49.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-10-25 2024-11-02	2024-11-03 2024-11-03 16:37
2024-10-29 12:00	Noble Predictive Insights Pushed w/4P [2]	47.0%	5.0%	48.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-28 2024-10-30	2024-10-31 2024-11-01 22:33
2024-10-29 12:00	Noble Predictive Insights w/4P [2]	47.0%	5.0%	48.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-28 2024-10-30	2024-10-31 2024-11-01 22:29
2024-10-29 00:00	Mitchell w/4P [2]	48.0%	2.0%	50.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-10-28 2024-10-29	2024-11-02 2024-11-03 08:11
2024-10-29 00:00	Mitchell [2]	48.0%	2.0%	50.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-10-28 2024-10-29	2024-11-02 2024-11-03 08:09
2024-10-28 12:00	YouGov LV [4]	49.0%	1.0%	50.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-25 2024-10-31	2024-11-01 2024-11-02 08:14
2024-10-28 12:00	YouGov RV [4]	49.0%	1.0%	50.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-25 2024-10-31	2024-11-01 2024-11-02 08:12
2024-10-28 12:00	YouGov LV w/4P [4]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-10-25 2024-10-31	2024-11-01 2024-11-02 08:10
2024-10-28 12:00	YouGov RV w/4P [4]	47.0%	5.0%	48.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-25 2024-10-31	2024-11-01 2024-11-02 08:08
2024-10-28 00:00	Data for Progress w/4P	47.0%	5.0%	48.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-25 2024-10-30	2024-11-01 2024-11-02 07:38
2024-10-27 12:00	Rasmussen	46.0%	6.0%	48.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-10-25 2024-10-29	2024-10-31 2024-10-31 18:21
2024-10-27 12:00	AtlasIntel [2]	47.3%	1.9%	50.8%	Trump by 3.5%	2024-10-25 2024-10-29	2024-10-29 2024-10-29 22:44
2024-10-27 12:00	AtlasIntel w/4P [2]	46.4%	3.0%	50.6%	Trump by 4.2%	2024-10-25 2024-10-29	2024-10-29 2024-10-29 22:42
2024-10-27 12:00	Data Orbital w/4P	41.9%	8.4%	49.7%	Trump by 7.8%	2024-10-26 2024-10-28	2024-10-29 2024-10-29 19:56
2024-10-26 12:00	RABA Research	45.0%	12.0%	43.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-25 2024-10-27	2024-10-30 2024-10-30 16:56
2024-10-26 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	47.0%	4.0%	49.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-10-25 2024-10-27	2024-10-29 2024-10-29 18:17
2024-10-26 00:00	Morning Consult	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-10-21 2024-10-30	2024-11-03 2024-11-03 18:43
2024-10-25 12:00	JL Partners	48.0%	3.0%	49.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-24 2024-10-26	2024-11-04 2024-11-05 02:57
2024-10-25 12:00	Trafalgar	46.0%	5.9%	48.1%	Trump by 2.1%	2024-10-24 2024-10-26	2024-10-27 2024-10-28 04:50
2024-10-24 00:00	SSRS w/4P	48.0%	5.0%	47.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-10-21 2024-10-26	2024-10-29 2024-10-29 17:55
2024-10-23 12:00	Democracy Institute	46.0%	3.0%	51.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-10-22 2024-10-24	2024-10-25 2024-10-28 04:29
2024-10-21 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	46.0%	6.0%	48.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-10-20 2024-10-22	2024-10-25 2024-10-25 18:19
2024-10-20 12:00	ActiVote	49.1%	0.0%	50.9%	Trump by 1.8%	2024-10-08 2024-11-01	2024-11-02 2024-11-02 17:02
2024-10-20 00:00	Marist RV [2]	49.0%	2.0%	49.0%	TIED	2024-10-17 2024-10-22	2024-10-24 2024-10-24 07:18
2024-10-20 00:00	Marist LV [2]	49.0%	1.0%	50.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-10-17 2024-10-22	2024-10-24 2024-10-24 07:16
2024-10-20 00:00	HighGround Total [2]	46.2%	7.0%	46.8%	Trump by 0.6%	2024-10-19 2024-10-20	2024-10-22 2024-10-23 16:06
2024-10-20 00:00	HighGround Definitely [2]	44.2%	12.3%	43.5%	Harris by 0.7%	2024-10-19 2024-10-20	2024-10-22 2024-10-23 16:03
2024-10-20 00:00	InsiderAdvantage	47.0%	3.5%	49.5%	Trump by 2.5%	2024-10-19 2024-10-20	2024-10-22 2024-10-22 17:24
2024-10-18 12:00	Morning Consult LV [4]	49.0%	2.0%	49.0%	TIED	2024-10-16 2024-10-20	2024-10-23 2024-10-24 04:51
2024-10-18 12:00	Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-10-16 2024-10-20	2024-10-23 2024-10-24 04:49
2024-10-18 12:00	Morning Consult RV [4]	49.0%	2.0%	49.0%	TIED	2024-10-16 2024-10-20	2024-10-23 2024-10-24 04:47
2024-10-18 12:00	Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-10-16 2024-10-20	2024-10-23 2024-10-24 04:44
2024-10-18 00:00	FocalData LV w/4P [3]	47.6%	3.6%	48.8%	Trump by 1.2%	2024-10-03 2024-11-01	2024-11-04 2024-11-04 21:01
2024-10-18 00:00	FocalData RV w/4P [3]	49.2%	4.1%	46.7%	Harris by 2.5%	2024-10-03 2024-11-01	2024-11-04 2024-11-04 20:59
2024-10-18 00:00	FocalData A w/4P [3]	48.5%	5.0%	46.5%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-10-03 2024-11-01	2024-11-04 2024-11-04 20:55
2024-10-17 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	46.0%	5.0%	49.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-10-16 2024-10-18	2024-10-21 2024-10-21 19:04
2024-10-16 12:00	TrueDot	46.2%	8.4%	45.5%	Harris by 0.7%	2024-10-12 2024-10-20	2024-10-25 2024-10-29 17:42
2024-10-15 00:00	AtlasIntel [2]	49.3%	1.5%	49.2%	Harris by 0.1%	2024-10-12 2024-10-17	2024-10-20 2024-10-20 18:44
2024-10-15 00:00	AtlasIntel w/4P [2]	48.6%	2.2%	49.2%	Trump by 0.6%	2024-10-12 2024-10-17	2024-10-20 2024-10-20 18:42
2024-10-14 00:00	YouGov	48.0%	1.0%	51.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-10-11 2024-10-16	2024-10-17 2024-10-18 15:53
2024-10-13 12:00	CCES LV [2]	47.0%	2.0%	51.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-10-01 2024-10-25	2024-10-29 2024-10-29 21:16
2024-10-13 12:00	CCES All [2]	49.0%	2.0%	49.0%	TIED	2024-10-01 2024-10-25	2024-10-29 2024-10-29 21:15
2024-10-13 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	46.0%	6.0%	48.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-10-12 2024-10-14	2024-10-16 2024-10-17 05:17
2024-10-12 00:00	Trafalgar	46.0%	6.5%	47.5%	Trump by 1.5%	2024-10-10 2024-10-13	2024-10-14 2024-10-15 01:08
2024-10-11 00:00	Morning Consult	49.0%	3.0%	48.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-10-06 2024-10-15	2024-10-17 2024-10-18 15:52
2024-10-09 00:00	Siena RV wo/Lean w/6P [5]	43.0%	9.0%	48.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-10-07 2024-10-10	2024-10-12 2024-10-12 17:17
2024-10-09 00:00	Siena RV Combined w/6P [5]	44.0%	7.0%	49.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-10-07 2024-10-10	2024-10-12 2024-10-12 17:15
2024-10-09 00:00	Siena RV [5]	45.0%	4.0%	51.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2024-10-07 2024-10-10	2024-10-12 2024-10-12 17:13
2024-10-09 00:00	Siena LV Combined w/6P [5]	45.0%	5.0%	50.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-10-07 2024-10-10	2024-10-12 2024-10-12 17:11
2024-10-09 00:00	Siena LV [5]	46.0%	3.0%	51.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-10-07 2024-10-10	2024-10-12 2024-10-12 17:09
2024-10-08 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies	47.0%	6.0%	47.0%	TIED	2024-10-08 2024-10-08	2024-10-08 2024-10-15 01:30
2024-10-08 00:00	Washington Post LV [2]	46.0%	5.0%	49.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-09-30 2024-10-15	2024-10-21 2024-10-21 13:38
2024-10-08 00:00	Washington Post RV [2]	44.0%	6.0%	50.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2024-09-30 2024-10-15	2024-10-21 2024-10-21 13:34
2024-10-08 00:00	Fabrizio McLaughlin	46.0%	5.0%	49.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-10-06 2024-10-09	2024-10-10 2024-10-11 18:06
2024-10-07 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [2]	48.2%	1.3%	50.5%	Trump by 2.3%	2024-10-05 2024-10-08	2024-10-10 2024-10-11 15:33
2024-10-07 00:00	Emerson [2]	47.2%	3.4%	49.4%	Trump by 2.2%	2024-10-05 2024-10-08	2024-10-10 2024-10-11 15:29
2024-10-06 12:00	SoCal Strategies	48.7%	3.5%	47.8%	Harris by 0.9%	2024-10-05 2024-10-07	2024-10-08 2024-10-08 16:59
2024-10-03 12:00	Fabrizio Lee Total [3]	48.0%	6.0%	46.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-28 2024-10-08	2024-10-11 2024-10-11 16:27
2024-10-03 12:00	Fabrizio Lee Definitely [3]	43.0%	16.0%	41.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-28 2024-10-08	2024-10-11 2024-10-11 16:25
2024-10-03 12:00	Fabrizio Lee w/6P [3]	47.0%	8.0%	45.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-28 2024-10-08	2024-10-11 2024-10-11 16:19
2024-10-01 12:00	RMG Research w/Lean [2]	46.0%	4.0%	50.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-09-30 2024-10-02	2024-10-07 2024-10-08 05:55
2024-10-01 12:00	RMG Research [2]	46.0%	4.0%	50.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-09-30 2024-10-02	2024-10-07 2024-10-08 05:52
2024-09-30 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	47.0%	5.0%	48.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-09-27 2024-10-02	2024-10-07 2024-10-08 03:02
2024-09-30 00:00	InsiderAdvantage	48.0%	3.0%	49.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-09-29 2024-09-30	2024-10-01 2024-10-01 22:53
2024-09-28 12:00	OnMessage	45.0%	8.0%	47.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-09-24 2024-10-02	2024-10-11 2024-10-11 17:47
2024-09-28 00:00	Fabrizio Ward [2]	48.0%	2.0%	50.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-09-24 2024-10-01	2024-10-08 2024-10-08 20:50
2024-09-28 00:00	Fabrizio Ward w/4P [2]	47.0%	4.0%	49.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-09-24 2024-10-01	2024-10-08 2024-10-08 20:48
2024-09-28 00:00	Highground Total [2]	47.6%	7.0%	45.4%	Harris by 2.2%	2024-09-26 2024-09-29	2024-10-02 2024-10-03 03:44
2024-09-28 00:00	Highground Definitely [2]	45.0%	14.0%	41.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-09-26 2024-09-29	2024-10-02 2024-10-03 03:41
2024-09-28 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [2]	47.6%	0.7%	51.7%	Trump by 4.1%	2024-09-27 2024-09-28	2024-10-01 2024-10-02 00:19
2024-09-28 00:00	Emerson [2]	47.2%	2.8%	50.0%	Trump by 2.8%	2024-09-27 2024-09-28	2024-10-01 2024-10-02 00:18
2024-09-27 12:00	National Research w/4P	47.0%	7.0%	46.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-09-25 2024-09-29	2024-10-02 2024-10-08 17:05
2024-09-26 12:00	Global Strategy Group [3]	48.0%	5.0%	47.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-09-23 2024-09-29	2024-10-09 2024-10-10 01:37
2024-09-26 12:00	Global Strategy Group w/Lean w/6P [3]	47.0%	6.0%	47.0%	TIED	2024-09-23 2024-09-29	2024-10-09 2024-10-10 01:35
2024-09-26 12:00	Global Strategy Group w/6P [3]	46.0%	8.0%	46.0%	TIED	2024-09-23 2024-09-29	2024-10-09 2024-10-10 01:32
2024-09-23 00:00	AtlasIntel w/3P [2]	48.6%	1.7%	49.7%	Trump by 1.1%	2024-09-20 2024-09-25	2024-09-29 2024-09-30 05:29
2024-09-23 00:00	AtlasIntel [2]	48.6%	1.6%	49.8%	Trump by 1.2%	2024-09-20 2024-09-25	2024-09-29 2024-09-30 05:27
2024-09-22 12:00	ActiVote	49.3%	0.0%	50.7%	Trump by 1.4%	2024-09-06 2024-10-08	2024-10-09 2024-10-10 02:39
2024-09-22 12:00	BSG/GS [2]	50.0%	2.0%	48.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-25	2024-10-02 2024-10-02 15:21
2024-09-22 12:00	BSG/GS w/3P [2]	50.0%	3.0%	47.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-25	2024-10-02 2024-10-02 15:17
2024-09-22 12:00	Morning Consult LV [4]	50.0%	3.0%	47.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-25	2024-09-26 2024-09-27 06:56
2024-09-22 12:00	Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]	49.0%	5.0%	46.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-25	2024-09-26 2024-09-27 06:54
2024-09-22 12:00	Morning Consult RV [4]	50.0%	3.0%	47.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-25	2024-09-26 2024-09-27 06:51
2024-09-22 12:00	Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]	49.0%	5.0%	46.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-25	2024-09-26 2024-09-27 06:45
2024-09-22 12:00	Beacon/Shaw RV [4]	48.0%	2.0%	50.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-09-20 2024-09-24	2024-09-26 2024-09-27 06:24
2024-09-22 12:00	Beacon/Shaw LV [4]	48.0%	1.0%	51.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-09-20 2024-09-24	2024-09-26 2024-09-27 06:18
2024-09-22 12:00	Beacon/Shaw RV w/5P [4]	47.0%	4.0%	49.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-09-20 2024-09-24	2024-09-26 2024-09-27 06:13
2024-09-22 12:00	Beacon/Shaw LV w/5P [4]	47.0%	3.0%	50.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-09-20 2024-09-24	2024-09-26 2024-09-27 06:09
2024-09-22 00:00	Suffolk	42.0%	10.0%	48.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-24	2024-09-27 2024-09-27 17:40
2024-09-22 00:00	Marist RV [2]	48.0%	2.0%	50.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-24	2024-09-26 2024-09-26 15:24
2024-09-22 00:00	Marist LV [2]	49.0%	1.0%	50.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-24	2024-09-26 2024-09-26 15:22
2024-09-21 00:00	Rasmussen	47.0%	4.0%	49.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-09-19 2024-09-22	2024-09-26 2024-09-26 15:26
2024-09-19 12:00	Siena RV wo/Lean w/6P [5]	41.0%	14.0%	45.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-09-17 2024-09-21	2024-09-23 2024-09-23 17:02
2024-09-19 12:00	Siena RV Combined w/6P [5]	42.0%	11.0%	47.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-09-17 2024-09-21	2024-09-23 2024-09-23 17:00
2024-09-19 12:00	Siena RV [5]	45.0%	6.0%	49.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-09-17 2024-09-21	2024-09-23 2024-09-23 16:58
2024-09-19 12:00	Siena LV w/6P [5]	44.0%	8.0%	48.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-09-17 2024-09-21	2024-09-23 2024-09-23 16:55
2024-09-19 12:00	Siena LV [5]	45.0%	5.0%	50.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-09-17 2024-09-21	2024-09-23 2024-09-23 16:53
2024-09-18 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	47.0%	6.0%	47.0%	TIED	2024-09-16 2024-09-19	2024-09-23 2024-09-23 17:41
2024-09-17 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [2]	48.7%	1.5%	49.8%	Trump by 1.1%	2024-09-15 2024-09-18	2024-09-19 2024-09-19 18:44
2024-09-17 00:00	Emerson [2]	48.3%	2.7%	49.0%	Trump by 0.7%	2024-09-15 2024-09-18	2024-09-19 2024-09-19 18:41
2024-09-15 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies	47.0%	4.0%	49.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-09-15 2024-09-15	2024-10-08 2024-10-15 01:28
2024-09-14 00:00	Morning Consult	48.4%	4.3%	47.4%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-09-09 2024-09-18	2024-09-19 2024-09-20 04:47
2024-09-12 00:00	Trafalgar	45.5%	7.4%	47.1%	Trump by 1.6%	2024-09-11 2024-09-12	2024-09-14 2024-09-15 03:55
2024-09-10 00:00	FocalData A w/4P [5]	50.8%	3.2%	46.0%	Harris by 4.8%	2024-09-03 2024-09-16	2024-09-25 2024-09-26 02:42
2024-09-10 00:00	FocalData RV w/4P [5]	50.8%	2.8%	46.4%	Harris by 4.4%	2024-09-03 2024-09-16	2024-09-25 2024-09-26 02:38
2024-09-10 00:00	FocalData LV [5]	50.7%	0.0%	49.3%	Harris by 1.4%	2024-09-03 2024-09-16	2024-09-25 2024-09-26 02:28
2024-09-10 00:00	FocalData LV w/Squeeze w/4P [5]	49.8%	2.0%	48.2%	Harris by 1.6%	2024-09-03 2024-09-16	2024-09-25 2024-09-26 02:26
2024-09-10 00:00	FocalData LV w/4P [5]	47.9%	6.4%	45.7%	Harris by 2.2%	2024-09-03 2024-09-16	2024-09-25 2024-09-26 02:23
2024-09-08 12:00	Data Orbital	46.0%	7.8%	46.2%	Trump by 0.2%	2024-09-07 2024-09-09	2024-09-17 2024-09-17 20:37
2024-09-08 00:00	Redfield & Wilton	46.0%	7.0%	47.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-09-06 2024-09-09	2024-09-10 2024-09-11 00:50
2024-09-04 12:00	TIPP Insights LV w/4P [4]	46.7%	6.7%	46.6%	Harris by 0.1%	2024-09-03 2024-09-05	2024-09-08 2024-09-08 18:15
2024-09-04 12:00	TIPP Insights RV w/4P [4]	45.8%	8.4%	45.8%	TIED	2024-09-03 2024-09-05	2024-09-08 2024-09-08 18:13
2024-09-04 12:00	TIPP Insights LV [4]	46.8%	6.5%	46.7%	Harris by 0.1%	2024-09-03 2024-09-05	2024-09-08 2024-09-08 18:07
2024-09-04 12:00	TIPP Insights RV [4]	46.0%	8.1%	45.9%	Harris by 0.1%	2024-09-03 2024-09-05	2024-09-08 2024-09-08 18:04
2024-09-04 00:00	Morning Consult	47.0%	4.0%	49.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-08-30 2024-09-08	2024-09-09 2024-09-10 04:00
2024-09-02 12:00	Patriot Polling	46.9%	4.6%	48.5%	Trump by 1.6%	2024-09-01 2024-09-03	2024-09-05 2024-09-06 06:27
2024-08-30 12:00	InsiderAdvantage	48.4%	3.0%	48.6%	Trump by 0.2%	2024-08-29 2024-08-31	2024-08-31 2024-08-31 20:04
2024-08-30 00:00	TrueDot	41.8%	12.5%	45.8%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-08-28 2024-08-31	2024-10-29 2024-10-29 17:38
2024-08-29 00:00	YouGov	45.0%	8.0%	47.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-08-23 2024-09-03	2024-09-05 2024-09-06 06:07
2024-08-27 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/4P	45.0%	9.0%	46.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-08-25 2024-08-28	2024-08-30 2024-08-30 17:40
2024-08-27 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [2]	47.5%	1.3%	51.2%	Trump by 3.7%	2024-08-25 2024-08-28	2024-08-29 2024-08-29 15:47
2024-08-27 00:00	Emerson [2]	47.3%	2.3%	50.4%	Trump by 3.1%	2024-08-25 2024-08-28	2024-08-29 2024-08-29 15:40
2024-08-26 12:00	SSRS w/4P	44.0%	7.0%	49.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-08-23 2024-08-29	2024-09-04 2024-09-04 21:28
2024-08-25 12:00	Morning Consult LV [4]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-08-23 2024-08-27	2024-08-29 2024-08-30 02:27
2024-08-25 12:00	Morning Consult LV w/4P [4]	49.0%	4.0%	47.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-08-23 2024-08-27	2024-08-29 2024-08-30 02:23
2024-08-25 12:00	Morning Consult RV [4]	48.0%	4.0%	48.0%	TIED	2024-08-23 2024-08-27	2024-08-29 2024-08-30 02:21
2024-08-25 12:00	Morning Consult RV w/4P [4]	49.0%	4.0%	47.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-08-23 2024-08-27	2024-08-29 2024-08-30 02:18
2024-08-25 00:00	Beacon/Shaw [2]	50.0%	1.0%	49.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-08-23 2024-08-26	2024-08-28 2024-08-28 23:30
2024-08-25 00:00	Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]	48.0%	5.0%	47.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-08-23 2024-08-26	2024-08-28 2024-08-28 23:27
2024-08-17 12:00	Spry w/4P [2]	46.1%	7.5%	46.4%	Trump by 0.3%	2024-08-14 2024-08-20	2024-08-29 2024-08-30 06:03
2024-08-17 12:00	Spry [2]	47.6%	3.7%	48.7%	Trump by 1.1%	2024-08-14 2024-08-20	2024-08-29 2024-08-30 05:56
2024-08-15 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies	46.0%	4.0%	50.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-08-15 2024-08-15	2024-10-08 2024-10-15 01:25
2024-08-15 12:00	Rasmussen w/6P [2]	44.0%	11.0%	45.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-08-13 2024-08-17	2024-08-27 2024-09-04 02:24
2024-08-15 12:00	Rasmussen [2]	45.0%	8.0%	47.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-08-13 2024-08-17	2024-08-27 2024-09-04 02:21
2024-08-14 12:00	Public Opinion Pulse w/5P [2]	43.0%	13.0%	44.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-08-12 2024-08-16	2024-08-27 2024-08-27 15:19
2024-08-14 12:00	Public Opinion Pulse [2]	44.0%	9.0%	47.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-08-12 2024-08-16	2024-08-27 2024-08-27 15:15
2024-08-14 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P	43.0%	13.0%	44.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-08-12 2024-08-15	2024-08-19 2024-08-19 18:54
2024-08-12 00:00	Siena LV w/6P [4]	47.0%	10.0%	43.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-08-08 2024-08-15	2024-08-17 2024-08-17 16:13
2024-08-12 00:00	Siena LV [4]	50.0%	5.0%	45.0%	Harris by 5.0%	2024-08-08 2024-08-15	2024-08-17 2024-08-17 16:07
2024-08-12 00:00	Siena RV w/6P [4]	45.0%	13.0%	42.0%	Harris by 3.0%	2024-08-08 2024-08-15	2024-08-17 2024-08-17 15:59
2024-08-12 00:00	Siena RV [4]	49.0%	6.0%	45.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-08-08 2024-08-15	2024-08-17 2024-08-17 15:53
2024-08-11 12:00	Focaldata LV [4]	49.0%	0.0%	51.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-08-06 2024-08-16	2024-08-19 2024-08-19 20:36
2024-08-11 12:00	Focaldata AV w/5P [4]	42.0%	12.0%	46.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2024-08-06 2024-08-16	2024-08-19 2024-08-19 20:34
2024-08-11 12:00	Focaldata RV w/5P [4]	45.0%	10.0%	45.0%	TIED	2024-08-06 2024-08-16	2024-08-19 2024-08-19 20:32
2024-08-11 12:00	Focaldata LV w/5P [4]	45.0%	9.0%	46.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-08-06 2024-08-16	2024-08-19 2024-08-19 20:29
2024-08-11 00:00	Strategies 360 Definitely [2]	40.0%	24.0%	36.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-08-07 2024-08-14	2024-08-28 2024-08-28 15:41
2024-08-11 00:00	Strategies 360 Total [2]	47.0%	7.0%	46.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-08-07 2024-08-14	2024-08-28 2024-08-28 15:35
2024-08-07 12:00	Trafalgar	47.0%	5.0%	48.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2024-08-06 2024-08-08	2024-08-09 2024-08-10 02:10
2024-08-04 12:00	Navigator [3]	46.0%	6.0%	48.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-07-31 2024-08-08	2024-08-20 2024-08-20 20:18
2024-08-04 12:00	Navigator w/Lean w/6P [3]	45.0%	10.0%	45.0%	TIED	2024-07-31 2024-08-08	2024-08-20 2024-08-20 20:16
2024-08-04 12:00	Navigator wo/Lean w/6P [3]	44.0%	12.0%	44.0%	TIED	2024-07-31 2024-08-08	2024-08-20 2024-08-20 20:13
2024-08-03 00:00	Peak Insights w/3P	42.0%	14.0%	44.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-07-31 2024-08-05	2024-08-15 2024-08-15 18:37
2024-08-02 12:00	HighGround	44.4%	14.0%	41.6%	Harris by 2.8%	2024-07-30 2024-08-05	2024-08-08 2024-08-08 17:27
2024-08-02 00:00	Iron Light w/3P	43.0%	14.0%	43.0%	TIED	2024-07-29 2024-08-05	2024-08-15 2024-08-15 18:19
2024-08-02 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P	44.0%	13.0%	43.0%	Harris by 1.0%	2024-07-31 2024-08-03	2024-08-06 2024-08-06 16:37
2024-07-30 00:00	BSG/GS [2]	48.0%	6.0%	46.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-07-26 2024-08-02	2024-08-14 2024-08-14 12:05
2024-07-30 00:00	BSG/GS w/3P [2]	46.0%	12.0%	42.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-07-26 2024-08-02	2024-08-14 2024-08-14 12:00
2024-07-30 00:00	PPP	47.0%	4.0%	49.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2024-07-29 2024-07-30	2024-07-31 2024-07-31 16:22
2024-07-26 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies	43.0%	9.0%	48.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2024-07-23 2024-07-29	2024-08-01 2024-08-01 14:44
2024-07-26 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	49.0%	4.0%	47.0%	Harris by 2.0%	2024-07-24 2024-07-28	2024-07-30 2024-07-30 21:13
2024-07-26 12:00	Morning Consult w/5P [2]	48.0%	8.0%	44.0%	Harris by 4.0%	2024-07-24 2024-07-28	2024-07-30 2024-07-30 21:07
2024-07-23 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/5P	43.0%	11.0%	46.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2024-07-22 2024-07-24	2024-07-26 2024-07-26 14:21
2024-07-23 00:00	Emerson w/6P [3]	39.8%	12.7%	47.5%	Trump by 7.7%	2024-07-22 2024-07-23	2024-07-25 2024-07-25 14:26
2024-07-23 00:00	Emerson w/Lean [3]	47.4%	0.0%	52.6%	Trump by 5.2%	2024-07-22 2024-07-23	2024-07-25 2024-07-25 14:25
2024-07-23 00:00	Emerson [3]	43.6%	7.0%	49.4%	Trump by 5.8%	2024-07-22 2024-07-23	2024-07-25 2024-07-25 14:23
2024-07-20 00:00	PPP w/4P	40.0%	14.0%	46.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2024-07-19 2024-07-20	2024-07-21 2024-07-25 02:43
2024-07-16 00:00	InsiderAdvantage	42.0%	10.0%	48.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2024-07-15 2024-07-16	2024-07-18 2024-07-19 08:22
2024-07-11 00:00	PPP	44.0%	4.0%	52.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2024-07-10 2024-07-11	2024-07-22 2024-07-22 15:26
2024-05-10 12:00	Morning Consult	42.0%	7.0%	51.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2024-05-08 2024-05-12	2024-05-22 2024-05-23 15:32
2024-02-18 00:00	Emerson	40.3%	12.1%	47.6%	Trump by 7.3%	2024-02-16 2024-02-19	2024-02-22 2024-02-23 02:15
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV [2]	43.0%	9.0%	48.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 18:21
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV [2]	43.0%	9.0%	48.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:37
2020-11-03 12:00	Election2020	49.4%	1.6%	49.1%	DEM by 0.3%	2020-11-03 2020-11-03	2020-11-03 2023-03-15 01:11
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	45.1%	6.2%	48.7%	REP by 3.5%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-18 04:43
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	44.6%	1.8%	53.7%	REP by 9.1%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-21 23:07
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	45.1%	1.2%	53.6%	REP by 8.5%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-22 10:38
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	44.4%	0.7%	54.9%	REP by 10.5%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-13 23:27
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	44.7%	4.3%	51.0%	REP by 6.3%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-05 07:10
1996-11-05 12:00	Election1996	46.5%	9.2%	44.3%	DEM by 2.2%	1996-11-05 1996-11-05	1996-11-05 2014-02-16 08:13
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	36.5%	25.0%	38.5%	REP by 2.0%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:06
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	38.7%	1.3%	60.0%	REP by 21.2%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 03:08
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	32.5%	1.0%	66.4%	REP by 33.9%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 06:15
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	28.2%	11.2%	60.6%	REP by 32.4%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:10

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

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If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

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