2024 Electoral College - Newsom vs Trump

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2024 Electoral College

Newsom vs Trump - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-08-25 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-09-02 19:06 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Categorization View

Taking Current Poll Averages at Face Value

	Newsom	Trump	Margin
2024 Electoral College Summary

Trump Best			Newsom/Trump TIE
Expected			Newsom/Trump TIE
Newsom Best			Newsom/Trump TIE


This summary assumes that any state with a current poll average margin of less than 5% could go either way, leading to the two best cases where one candidate wins all of these states. The "Expected" case is when each candidate wins every state they currently lead, regardless of how small that lead may be.

Solid Newsom

District of Columbia | 3 EV| (((((84.5%)))))

Hawaii | 4 EV| (((((31.7%)))))

Vermont | 3 EV| (((((30.9%)))))

Massachusetts |11 EV| (((((27.0%)))))

California |54 EV| ((((24.8%))))

Maryland |10 EV| (((((24.8%)))))

New York |28 EV| (((((23.8%)))))

Rhode Island | 4 EV| (((((22.5%)))))

Maine (CD1) | 1 EV| (((((18.8%)))))

Illinois |19 EV| (((((17.3%)))))

Connecticut | 7 EV| (((((16.8%)))))

Delaware | 3 EV| (((((16.3%)))))

Washington |12 EV| (((((14.8%)))))

New Jersey |14 EV| (((((14.0%)))))

Oregon | 8 EV| (((((11.9%)))))

Maine (All) | 2 EV| (((((10.7%)))))

Strong Newsom

New Mexico | 5 EV| ((((( 8.7%)))))

Minnesota |10 EV| ((((( 6.0%)))))

Colorado |10 EV| ((((( 5.6%)))))

Weak Newsom

New Hampshire | 4 EV| ((((( 4.9%)))))

Virginia |13 EV| ((((( 3.5%)))))

Maine (CD2) | 1 EV| ((((( 1.6%)))))

Nevada | 6 EV| (((( 1.3%))))

Weak Trump

Wisconsin |10 EV| ((( 0.4%)))

o Florida |30 EV| ((((( 1.2%)))))

Michigan |15 EV| (( 2.7%))

Iowa | 6 EV| (((( 3.0%))))

Pennsylvania |19 EV| ((( 3.6%)))

North Carolina |16 EV| (((( 4.4%))))

Nebraska (CD2) | 1 EV| ((((( 4.7%)))))

Strong Trump

Ohio |17 EV| (((( 5.3%))))

Arizona |11 EV| ((( 6.4%)))

Georgia |16 EV| (((( 7.2%))))

Solid Trump

Missouri |10 EV| (((((10.1%)))))

South Carolina | 9 EV| (((((12.5%)))))

Indiana |11 EV| (((((13.0%)))))

Texas |40 EV| (((((13.0%)))))

Montana | 4 EV| (((((14.6%)))))

Mississippi | 6 EV| (((((15.7%)))))

Alaska | 3 EV| (((((17.2%)))))

Louisiana | 8 EV| (((((17.7%)))))

Nebraska (CD1) | 1 EV| (((((17.9%)))))

Kansas | 6 EV| (((((19.5%)))))

Tennessee |11 EV| (((((19.8%)))))

South Dakota | 3 EV| (((((20.8%)))))

Arkansas | 6 EV| (((((21.6%)))))

Nebraska (All) | 2 EV| (((((22.8%)))))

Kentucky | 8 EV| (((((22.9%)))))

Alabama | 9 EV| (((((24.5%)))))

North Dakota | 3 EV| (((((24.9%)))))

West Virginia | 4 EV| (((((26.7%)))))

Idaho | 4 EV| (((((31.6%)))))

Utah | 6 EV| (((((32.1%)))))

Oklahoma | 7 EV| (((((33.1%)))))

Wyoming | 3 EV| (((((40.4%)))))

Nebraska (CD3) | 1 EV| (((((48.0%)))))

Switch to Column View

Click on states for polling details.

Probabilistic View

Accounting For Time Left Before Election

2024 EC (Indep States Probs) Accounting For Time Left Before Election

Median:	Trump by 74
1σ (68.27%) range:	Trump by 26 ----- Trump by 96
2σ (95.45%) range:	Newsom by 14 ---------- Trump by 120
3σ (99.73%) range:	Newsom by 50 --------------- Trump by 140
Odds:	Newsom: 5.2% — Tie: 0.1% — Trump: 94.7%

This model assumes poll errors in states are independent of each other. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model accounts for how things can change in the time remaining.

2024 EC (Uniform Swing Probs) Accounting For Time Left Before Election

Median:	Trump by 74
1σ (68.27%) range:	Newsom by 6 ----- Trump by 114
2σ (95.45%) range:	Newsom by 120 ---------- Trump by 162
3σ (99.73%) range:	Newsom by 208 --------------- Trump by 172
Odds:	Newsom: 22.9% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 77.1%

This model assumes poll errors in states will be identical nationwide. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model accounts for how things can change in the time remaining.

Probabilistic View

If The Election Was Always Now

2024 EC (Indep States Probs) If The Election Was Always Now

Median:	Trump by 74
1σ (68.27%) range:	Trump by 26 ----- Trump by 96
2σ (95.45%) range:	Newsom by 14 ---------- Trump by 120
3σ (99.73%) range:	Newsom by 50 --------------- Trump by 140
Odds:	Newsom: 5.2% — Tie: 0.1% — Trump: 94.7%

This model assumes poll errors in states are independent of each other. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how the final Election Graphs poll averages have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model shows how things would look each day if that day was election day.

2024 EC (Uniform Swing Probs) If The Election Was Always Now

Median:	Trump by 74
1σ (68.27%) range:	Newsom by 6 ----- Trump by 114
2σ (95.45%) range:	Newsom by 120 ---------- Trump by 162
3σ (99.73%) range:	Newsom by 208 --------------- Trump by 172
Odds:	Newsom: 22.8% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 77.2%

This model assumes poll errors in states will be identical nationwide. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how the final Election Graphs poll averages have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model shows how things would look each day if that day was election day.

Ten most needed polls:
Wisconsin, Florida, Maine (CD2), Nevada, Virginia,
Iowa, Nebraska (CD2), New Hampshire, North Carolina, Colorado

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 16.5 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

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