2024 Electoral College - Biden vs Youngkin - National Summary

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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Youngkin - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-09-08 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-09-29 15:45 UTC

Odds assume 2024 will look similar to 2008-2020 in terms of error distribution in EG poll averages.
This reflects CURRENT polling ONLY, not how things may change before the election!
All of the below will almost certainly be dramatically different by then!

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Summary View

	Biden	Margin
Probabilistic View (Indep States)
Median:	Youngkin by 12
1σ (68.27%) range:	Biden by 36 ----- Youngkin by 42
2σ (95.45%) range:	Biden by 80 ---------- Youngkin by 72
Odds:	Biden: 39.4% — Tie: 3.5% — Youngkin: 57.1%
Probabilistic View (Uniform Swing)
Median:	Youngkin by 12
1σ (68.27%) range:	Biden by 120 ----- Youngkin by 84
2σ (95.45%) range:	Biden by 154 ---------- Youngkin by 162
Odds:	Biden: 27.1% — Tie: 1.5% — Youngkin: 71.3%
Categorization View
Youngkin Best		Biden/Youngkin TIE
Expected		Biden/Youngkin TIE
Biden Best		Biden/Youngkin TIE

Probabilistic View

Categorization View

State Breakdown by Category

Click on state names for polling details.

Switch to Spectrum View

Solid Biden
State	EV	Ahead by
District of Columbia	3	(((((84.5%)))))
Hawaii	4	(((((31.7%)))))
Vermont	3	(((((30.9%)))))
Massachusetts	11	(((((27.0%)))))
Maryland	10	(((((24.0%)))))
New York	28	(((((23.8%)))))
California	54	(((((23.3%)))))
Rhode Island	4	(((((22.5%)))))
Maine (CD1)	1	(((((18.8%)))))
Illinois	19	(((((17.3%)))))
Connecticut	7	(((((16.8%)))))
Delaware	3	(((((16.3%)))))
Washington	12	(((((14.8%)))))
New Jersey	14	(((((14.0%)))))
Oregon	8	(((((11.9%)))))
Maine (All)	2	(((((10.7%)))))

Strong Biden
State	EV	Ahead by
New Mexico	5	(((((8.7%)))))
Michigan	15	(((((6.4%)))))
Minnesota	10	(((((6.0%)))))
Colorado	10	(((((5.6%)))))

Weak Biden
State	EV	Ahead by
New Hampshire	4	(((((4.9%)))))
Nevada	6	(((((4.3%)))))
Wisconsin	10	(((((4.2%)))))
Pennsylvania	19	(((((3.7%)))))
Maine (CD2)	1	(((((1.6%)))))

Weak Youngkin
State	EV	Ahead by
• Iowa	6	(((((0.6%)))))
• Virginia	13	((0.8%))
Florida	30	(((((1.2%)))))
Ohio	17	(((((2.1%)))))
North Carolina	16	(((((3.8%)))))
Nebraska (CD2)	1	(((((4.7%)))))

Strong Youngkin
State	EV	Ahead by
Arizona	11	(((((6.3%)))))
Georgia	16	(((((6.9%)))))

Solid Youngkin
State	EV	Ahead by
Missouri	10	(((((10.1%)))))
South Carolina	9	(((((12.5%)))))
Indiana	11	(((((13.0%)))))
Texas	40	(((((13.0%)))))
Montana	4	(((((14.6%)))))
Mississippi	6	(((((15.7%)))))
Alaska	3	(((((17.2%)))))
Louisiana	8	(((((17.7%)))))
Nebraska (CD1)	1	(((((17.9%)))))
Kansas	6	(((((19.5%)))))
Tennessee	11	(((((19.8%)))))
South Dakota	3	(((((20.8%)))))
Arkansas	6	(((((21.6%)))))
Nebraska (All)	2	(((((22.8%)))))
Kentucky	8	(((((22.9%)))))
Alabama	9	(((((24.5%)))))
North Dakota	3	(((((24.9%)))))
West Virginia	4	(((((26.7%)))))
Idaho	4	(((((31.6%)))))
Utah	6	(((((32.1%)))))
Oklahoma	7	(((((33.1%)))))
Wyoming	3	(((((40.4%)))))
Nebraska (CD3)	1	(((((48.0%)))))

Ten most needed polls:
Iowa, Florida, Maine (CD2), Virginia, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Nevada, Nebraska (CD2)

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 17.9 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

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