2024 Electoral College - Kennedy vs Trump - National Summary

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2024 Electoral College

Kennedy vs Trump - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-08-25 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-09-02 19:06 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Categorization View

Taking Current Poll Averages at Face Value

	Kennedy	Trump	Margin
2024 Electoral College Summary

Trump Best			Kennedy/Trump TIE
Expected			Kennedy/Trump TIE
Kennedy Best			Kennedy/Trump TIE


This summary assumes that any state with a current poll average margin of less than 5% could go either way, leading to the two best cases where one candidate wins all of these states. The "Expected" case is when each candidate wins every state they currently lead, regardless of how small that lead may be.

Solid Kennedy
State	EV	Ahead by
District of Columbia	3	(((((84.5%)))))
Hawaii	4	((((34.5%))))
Vermont	3	((((31.4%))))
Maryland	10	((((24.5%))))
Massachusetts	11	((((24.4%))))
California	54	((((23.9%))))
New York	28	((((21.3%))))
Rhode Island	4	((((19.6%))))
Maine (CD1)	1	(((((18.8%)))))
Connecticut	7	((((18.0%))))
Illinois	19	((((17.5%))))
Washington	12	((((17.1%))))
Delaware	3	((((16.0%))))
New Jersey	14	((((13.1%))))
Oregon	8	((((11.8%))))
New Mexico	5	((((10.9%))))
Maine (All)	2	((((10.1%))))

Strong Kennedy
State	EV	Ahead by
Colorado	10	((((8.9%))))
Minnesota	10	((((7.6%))))
Michigan	15	((((6.0%))))
Virginia	13	((((5.6%))))

Weak Kennedy
State	EV	Ahead by
New Hampshire	4	(((4.8%)))
Wisconsin	10	((((4.0%))))
Nevada	6	((((3.5%))))
o Pennsylvania	19	((((3.1%))))
Maine (CD2)	1	(((((1.6%)))))
Iowa	6	((((0.7%))))

Weak Trump
State	EV	Ahead by
Florida	30	((((2.3%))))
North Carolina	16	((((2.4%))))
Ohio	17	((((3.3%))))
Georgia	16	((((3.5%))))
Nebraska (CD2)	1	(((((4.7%)))))

Strong Trump
State	EV	Ahead by
Arizona	11	((((5.5%))))
Texas	40	((((9.3%))))
Indiana	11	((((9.3%))))
Missouri	10	((((9.3%))))

Solid Trump
State	EV	Ahead by
South Carolina	9	((((10.6%))))
Alaska	3	((((13.2%))))
Montana	4	((((13.6%))))
Mississippi	6	((((14.5%))))
Kansas	6	((((14.7%))))
Nebraska (All)	2	((((17.6%))))
Louisiana	8	((((17.8%))))
Nebraska (CD1)	1	(((((17.9%)))))
South Dakota	3	((((19.0%))))
Arkansas	6	((((20.2%))))
Tennessee	11	((((20.5%))))
Utah	6	((((22.1%))))
Kentucky	8	((((22.2%))))
North Dakota	3	((((22.6%))))
Alabama	9	((((24.2%))))
Oklahoma	7	((((27.5%))))
Idaho	4	((((28.3%))))
West Virginia	4	((((29.7%))))
Wyoming	3	((((35.9%))))
Nebraska (CD3)	1	(((((48.0%)))))

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Click on states for polling details.

Probabilistic View

Accounting For Time Left Before Election

2024 EC (Indep States Probs) Accounting For Time Left Before Election

Median:	Kennedy by 2
1σ (68.27%) range:	Kennedy by 44 ----- Trump by 38
2σ (95.45%) range:	Kennedy by 92 ---------- Trump by 72
3σ (99.73%) range:	Kennedy by 140 --------------- Trump by 108
Odds:	Kennedy: 50.2% — Tie: 2.1% — Trump: 47.7%

This model assumes poll errors in states are independent of each other. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model accounts for how things can change in the time remaining.

2024 EC (Uniform Swing Probs) Accounting For Time Left Before Election

Median:	Kennedy by 14
1σ (68.27%) range:	Kennedy by 26 ----- Trump by 122
2σ (95.45%) range:	Kennedy by 208 ---------- Trump by 176
3σ (99.73%) range:	Kennedy by 354 --------------- Trump by 220
Odds:	Kennedy: 62.6% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 37.4%

This model assumes poll errors in states will be identical nationwide. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model accounts for how things can change in the time remaining.

Probabilistic View

If The Election Was Always Now

2024 EC (Indep States Probs) If The Election Was Always Now

Median:	Kennedy by 8
1σ (68.27%) range:	Kennedy by 44 ----- Trump by 26
2σ (95.45%) range:	Kennedy by 86 ---------- Trump by 56
3σ (99.73%) range:	Kennedy by 126 --------------- Trump by 86
Odds:	Kennedy: 58.1% — Tie: 2.3% — Trump: 39.6%

This model assumes poll errors in states are independent of each other. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how the final Election Graphs poll averages have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model shows how things would look each day if that day was election day.

2024 EC (Uniform Swing Probs) If The Election Was Always Now

Median:	Kennedy by 14
1σ (68.27%) range:	Kennedy by 26 ----- Trump by 58
2σ (95.45%) range:	Kennedy by 186 ---------- Trump by 142
3σ (99.73%) range:	Kennedy by 208 --------------- Trump by 166
Odds:	Kennedy: 67.9% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 32.1%

This model assumes poll errors in states will be identical nationwide. State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how the final Election Graphs poll averages have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020. This model shows how things would look each day if that day was election day.

Ten most needed polls:
Iowa, Maine (CD2), Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania,
Ohio, Nevada, Georgia, Nebraska (CD2), Wisconsin

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 16.3 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

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