Middate/Time | Pollster | Biden | <> | Trump | Margin | Start/End | Released/Entered |
---|
2024-04-14 00:00 | Beacon/Shaw [2] | 48.0% | 4.0% | 48.0% | TIED | 2024-04-11 2024-04-16 | 2024-04-18 2024-04-19 22:35 |
2024-04-14 00:00 | Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2] | 43.0% | 16.0% | 41.0% | Biden by 2.0% | 2024-04-11 2024-04-16 | 2024-04-18 2024-04-19 22:32 |
2024-04-11 12:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 44.0% | 8.0% | 48.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2024-04-08 2024-04-14 | 2024-04-24 2024-04-24 15:40 |
2024-04-11 12:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 41.0% | 15.0% | 44.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2024-04-08 2024-04-14 | 2024-04-24 2024-04-24 15:38 |
2024-04-08 00:00 | North Star w/5P [2] | 36.0% | 27.0% | 37.0% | Trump by 1.0% | 2024-04-06 2024-04-09 | 2024-04-17 2024-04-17 17:25 |
2024-04-08 00:00 | North Star [2] | 45.0% | 10.0% | 45.0% | TIED | 2024-04-06 2024-04-09 | 2024-04-17 2024-04-17 17:22 |
2024-04-07 00:00 | Marquette LV w/5P [6] | 41.0% | 17.0% | 42.0% | Trump by 1.0% | 2024-04-03 2024-04-10 | 2024-04-17 2024-04-18 15:11 |
2024-04-07 00:00 | Marquette LV w/Lean [6] | 49.0% | 0.0% | 51.0% | Trump by 2.0% | 2024-04-03 2024-04-10 | 2024-04-17 2024-04-18 15:09 |
2024-04-07 00:00 | Marquette LV [6] | 45.0% | 7.0% | 48.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2024-04-03 2024-04-10 | 2024-04-17 2024-04-18 15:06 |
2024-04-07 00:00 | Marquette RV w/5P [6] | 40.0% | 19.0% | 41.0% | Trump by 1.0% | 2024-04-03 2024-04-10 | 2024-04-17 2024-04-18 15:04 |
2024-04-07 00:00 | Marquette RV w/Lean [6] | 49.0% | 0.0% | 51.0% | Trump by 2.0% | 2024-04-03 2024-04-10 | 2024-04-17 2024-04-18 15:02 |
2024-04-07 00:00 | Marquette RV [6] | 44.0% | 9.0% | 47.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2024-04-03 2024-04-10 | 2024-04-17 2024-04-18 14:58 |
2024-03-21 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee Total [4] | 46.0% | 8.0% | 46.0% | TIED | 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 | 2024-04-02 2024-04-03 06:00 |
2024-03-21 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee Definitely [4] | 40.0% | 21.0% | 39.0% | Biden by 1.0% | 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 | 2024-04-02 2024-04-03 05:58 |
2024-03-21 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee w/4P [4] | 43.0% | 15.0% | 42.0% | Biden by 1.0% | 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 | 2024-04-02 2024-04-03 05:56 |
2024-03-21 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee w/6P [4] | 41.0% | 21.0% | 38.0% | Biden by 3.0% | 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 | 2024-04-02 2024-04-03 05:54 |
2024-03-16 12:00 | Emerson w/5P [3] | 39.6% | 17.0% | 43.4% | Trump by 3.8% | 2024-03-14 2024-03-18 | 2024-03-21 2024-03-22 02:28 |
2024-03-16 12:00 | Emerson w/Lean [3] | 48.2% | 0.0% | 51.8% | Trump by 3.6% | 2024-03-14 2024-03-18 | 2024-03-21 2024-03-22 02:25 |
2024-03-16 12:00 | Emerson [3] | 43.3% | 10.7% | 46.0% | Trump by 2.7% | 2024-03-14 2024-03-18 | 2024-03-21 2024-03-22 02:22 |
2024-03-16 00:00 | Echelon Total [2] | 47.0% | 7.0% | 46.0% | Biden by 1.0% | 2024-03-12 2024-03-19 | 2024-04-15 2024-04-15 16:48 |
2024-03-16 00:00 | Echelon Definitely [2] | 42.0% | 18.0% | 40.0% | Biden by 2.0% | 2024-03-12 2024-03-19 | 2024-04-15 2024-04-15 16:46 |
2024-03-11 12:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 46.0% | 9.0% | 45.0% | Biden by 1.0% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-14 | 2024-03-26 2024-03-26 11:43 |
2024-03-11 12:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 39.0% | 20.0% | 41.0% | Trump by 2.0% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-14 | 2024-03-26 2024-03-26 11:34 |
2024-02-23 00:00 | Kaplan | 39.0% | 20.0% | 41.0% | Trump by 2.0% | 2024-02-22 2024-02-23 | 2024-02-26 2024-02-28 03:13 |
2024-02-22 12:00 | Emerson w/5P [2] | 37.1% | 22.1% | 40.8% | Trump by 3.7% | 2024-02-20 2024-02-24 | 2024-02-27 2024-02-28 03:50 |
2024-02-22 12:00 | Emerson [2] | 42.4% | 12.4% | 45.2% | Trump by 2.8% | 2024-02-20 2024-02-24 | 2024-02-27 2024-02-28 03:47 |
2024-02-15 12:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 42.0% | 12.0% | 46.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2024-02-12 2024-02-18 | 2024-02-28 2024-03-01 07:08 |
2024-02-15 12:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 35.0% | 24.0% | 41.0% | Trump by 6.0% | 2024-02-12 2024-02-18 | 2024-02-28 2024-03-01 07:06 |
2024-01-28 12:00 | Beacon/Shaw [2] | 47.0% | 6.0% | 47.0% | TIED | 2024-01-26 2024-01-30 | 2024-02-02 2024-02-02 17:39 |
2024-01-28 12:00 | Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2] | 39.0% | 19.0% | 42.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2024-01-26 2024-01-30 | 2024-02-02 2024-02-02 17:35 |
2024-01-28 00:00 | Marquette LV w/5P [6] | 39.0% | 20.0% | 41.0% | Trump by 2.0% | 2024-01-24 2024-01-31 | 2024-02-07 2024-02-08 01:27 |
2024-01-28 00:00 | Marquette LV w/Lean [6] | 49.0% | 1.0% | 50.0% | Trump by 1.0% | 2024-01-24 2024-01-31 | 2024-02-07 2024-02-08 01:24 |
2024-01-28 00:00 | Marquette LV [6] | 44.0% | 10.0% | 46.0% | Trump by 2.0% | 2024-01-24 2024-01-31 | 2024-02-07 2024-02-08 01:21 |
2024-01-28 00:00 | Marquette RV w/5P [6] | 37.0% | 23.0% | 40.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2024-01-24 2024-01-31 | 2024-02-07 2024-02-08 01:19 |
2024-01-28 00:00 | Marquette RV w/Lean [6] | 49.0% | 2.0% | 49.0% | TIED | 2024-01-24 2024-01-31 | 2024-02-07 2024-02-08 01:17 |
2024-01-28 00:00 | Marquette RV [6] | 44.0% | 12.0% | 44.0% | TIED | 2024-01-24 2024-01-31 | 2024-02-07 2024-02-08 01:16 |
2024-01-20 12:00 | Focaldata LV 2W [3] | 49.3% | 0.0% | 50.7% | Trump by 1.4% | 2024-01-17 2024-01-23 | 2024-03-01 2024-03-02 02:48 |
2024-01-20 12:00 | Focaldata LV [3] | 42.0% | 12.0% | 46.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2024-01-17 2024-01-23 | 2024-03-01 2024-03-02 02:47 |
2024-01-20 12:00 | Focaldata All [3] | 38.0% | 19.0% | 43.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2024-01-17 2024-01-23 | 2024-03-01 2024-03-02 02:46 |
2024-01-19 00:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 44.0% | 7.0% | 49.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2024-01-16 2024-01-21 | 2024-01-31 2024-01-31 19:46 |
2024-01-19 00:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 35.0% | 22.0% | 43.0% | Trump by 8.0% | 2024-01-16 2024-01-21 | 2024-01-31 2024-01-31 19:43 |
2023-12-02 00:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 41.0% | 14.0% | 45.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2023-11-27 2023-12-06 | 2023-12-14 2023-12-15 02:18 |
2023-12-02 00:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 34.0% | 26.0% | 40.0% | Trump by 6.0% | 2023-11-27 2023-12-06 | 2023-12-14 2023-12-15 02:14 |
2023-11-29 12:00 | JL Partners [2] | 45.0% | 14.0% | 41.0% | Biden by 4.0% | 2023-11-27 2023-12-01 | 2023-12-04 2023-12-05 07:03 |
2023-11-29 12:00 | JL Partners w/5P [2] | 37.0% | 31.0% | 32.0% | Biden by 5.0% | 2023-11-27 2023-12-01 | 2023-12-04 2023-12-05 06:57 |
2023-11-21 00:00 | Big Data LV w/5P [6] | 37.7% | 22.3% | 40.0% | Trump by 2.3% | 2023-11-18 2023-11-23 | 2023-11-23 2024-04-26 23:42 |
2023-11-21 00:00 | Big Data LV w/3P [6] | 38.8% | 22.0% | 39.2% | Trump by 0.4% | 2023-11-18 2023-11-23 | 2023-11-23 2024-04-26 23:40 |
2023-11-21 00:00 | Big Data LV [6] | 39.0% | 22.0% | 39.0% | TIED | 2023-11-18 2023-11-23 | 2023-11-23 2024-04-26 23:37 |
2023-11-21 00:00 | Big Data Total w/5P [6] | 35.9% | 24.7% | 39.4% | Trump by 3.5% | 2023-11-18 2023-11-23 | 2023-11-23 2024-04-18 15:33 |
2023-11-21 00:00 | Big Data Total w/3P [6] | 36.5% | 24.8% | 38.7% | Trump by 2.2% | 2023-11-18 2023-11-23 | 2023-11-23 2024-04-18 15:31 |
2023-11-21 00:00 | Big Data Total [6] | 37.1% | 24.3% | 38.6% | Trump by 1.5% | 2023-11-18 2023-11-23 | 2023-11-23 2024-04-18 15:27 |
2023-11-03 12:00 | Morning Consult w/4P [2] | 36.0% | 26.0% | 38.0% | Trump by 2.0% | 2023-10-30 2023-11-07 | 2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:34 |
2023-11-03 12:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 46.0% | 7.0% | 47.0% | Trump by 1.0% | 2023-10-30 2023-11-07 | 2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:32 |
2023-11-02 00:00 | Emerson RV [2] | 42.6% | 13.6% | 43.8% | Trump by 1.2% | 2023-10-30 2023-11-04 | 2023-11-09 2023-11-10 02:08 |
2023-11-02 00:00 | Emerson LV [2] | 45.0% | 9.8% | 45.2% | Trump by 0.2% | 2023-10-30 2023-11-04 | 2023-11-09 2023-11-10 02:04 |
2023-10-30 00:00 | Marquette w/Lean [2] | 50.0% | 2.0% | 48.0% | Biden by 2.0% | 2023-10-26 2023-11-02 | 2023-11-08 2023-11-09 00:53 |
2023-10-30 00:00 | Marquette [2] | 45.0% | 13.0% | 42.0% | Biden by 3.0% | 2023-10-26 2023-11-02 | 2023-11-08 2023-11-09 00:51 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena LV w/3P [6] | 37.0% | 28.0% | 35.0% | Biden by 2.0% | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-07 17:17 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena RV w/3P [6] | 37.0% | 28.0% | 35.0% | Biden by 2.0% | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-07 17:15 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena LV Definitely [6] | 36.0% | 28.0% | 36.0% | TIED | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-05 18:17 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena LV w/Lean [6] | 47.0% | 8.0% | 45.0% | Biden by 2.0% | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-05 18:11 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena RV Definitely [6] | 35.0% | 30.0% | 35.0% | TIED | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:31 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena RV w/Lean [6] | 47.0% | 8.0% | 45.0% | Biden by 2.0% | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:27 |
2023-10-08 00:00 | Morning Consult | 44.0% | 10.0% | 46.0% | Trump by 2.0% | 2023-10-05 2023-10-10 | 2023-10-19 2023-10-19 16:12 |
2023-10-03 00:00 | Emerson | 39.5% | 18.5% | 42.0% | Trump by 2.5% | 2023-10-01 2023-10-04 | 2023-10-12 2023-10-13 02:00 |
2023-09-26 00:00 | PPP | 48.0% | 8.0% | 44.0% | Biden by 4.0% | 2023-09-25 2023-09-26 | 2023-09-29 2023-09-29 16:03 |
2023-06-21 12:00 | Prime w/NL [2] | 37.0% | 23.0% | 40.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2023-06-14 2023-06-28 | 2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:38 |
2023-06-21 12:00 | Prime [2] | 53.0% | 0.0% | 47.0% | Biden by 6.0% | 2023-06-14 2023-06-28 | 2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:54 |
2023-06-10 12:00 | Marquette | 52.0% | 5.0% | 43.0% | Biden by 9.0% | 2023-06-08 2023-06-12 | 2023-06-28 2023-06-29 06:17 |
2023-04-19 00:00 | Public Opinion Strategies | 47.0% | 9.0% | 44.0% | Biden by 3.0% | 2023-04-17 2023-04-20 | 2023-04-24 2023-04-24 15:22 |
2022-10-28 12:00 | Emerson | 44.2% | 12.9% | 42.9% | Biden by 1.3% | 2022-10-27 2022-10-29 | 2022-11-02 2023-03-24 02:26 |
2022-09-17 12:00 | Emerson | 44.8% | 11.2% | 44.0% | Biden by 0.8% | 2022-09-16 2022-09-18 | 2022-09-20 2023-03-22 03:56 |
2021-11-14 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2] | 38.0% | 15.0% | 47.0% | Trump by 9.0% | 2021-11-11 2021-11-16 | 2021-11-21 2023-07-04 00:51 |
2021-11-14 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee Total [2] | 42.0% | 6.0% | 52.0% | Trump by 10.0% | 2021-11-11 2021-11-16 | 2021-11-21 2023-03-20 13:36 |
2021-10-29 00:00 | Marquette | 45.0% | 14.0% | 41.0% | Biden by 4.0% | 2021-10-26 2021-10-31 | 2021-11-03 2023-03-20 09:59 |
2020-11-03 12:00 | Election2020 | 49.5% | 1.7% | 48.8% | DEM by 0.6% | 2020-11-03 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-03 2023-03-17 06:24 |
2016-11-08 12:00 | Election2016 | 46.5% | 6.3% | 47.2% | REP by 0.8% | 2016-11-08 2016-11-08 | 2016-11-08 2019-02-24 18:34 |
2012-11-06 12:00 | Election2012 | 52.8% | 1.3% | 45.9% | DEM by 6.9% | 2012-11-06 2012-11-06 | 2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:19 |
2008-11-04 12:00 | Election2008 | 56.2% | 1.5% | 42.3% | DEM by 13.9% | 2008-11-04 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-04 2013-10-06 05:22 |
2004-11-02 12:00 | Election2004 | 49.7% | 1.0% | 49.3% | DEM by 0.4% | 2004-11-02 2004-11-02 | 2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:19 |
2000-11-07 12:00 | Election2000 | 47.8% | 4.6% | 47.6% | DEM by 0.2% | 2000-11-07 2000-11-07 | 2000-11-07 2013-11-10 11:16 |
1996-11-06 12:00 | Election1996 | 48.8% | 12.7% | 38.5% | DEM by 10.3% | 1996-11-06 1996-11-06 | 1996-11-06 2014-02-18 15:53 |
1992-11-03 12:00 | Election1992 | 41.1% | 22.1% | 36.8% | DEM by 4.4% | 1992-11-03 1992-11-03 | 1992-11-03 2014-03-17 07:09 |
1988-11-08 12:00 | Election1988 | 51.4% | 0.8% | 47.8% | DEM by 3.6% | 1988-11-08 1988-11-08 | 1988-11-08 2014-05-17 20:13 |
1984-11-06 12:00 | Election1984 | 45.0% | 0.8% | 54.2% | REP by 9.2% | 1984-11-06 1984-11-06 | 1984-11-06 2014-05-24 07:46 |
1980-11-04 12:00 | Election1980 | 43.2% | 8.9% | 47.9% | REP by 4.7% | 1980-11-04 1980-11-04 | 1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:35 |
The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".