Middate/Time | Pollster | Biden | <> | Trump | Margin | Start/End | Released/Entered |
---|
2024-03-14 00:00 | Emerson w/5P [3] | 36.0% | 23.0% | 41.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2024-03-12 2024-03-15 | 2024-03-20 2024-03-21 02:46 |
2024-03-14 00:00 | Emerson w/Lean [3] | 48.7% | 0.0% | 51.3% | Trump by 2.6% | 2024-03-12 2024-03-15 | 2024-03-20 2024-03-21 02:43 |
2024-03-14 00:00 | Emerson [3] | 41.2% | 14.9% | 43.9% | Trump by 2.7% | 2024-03-12 2024-03-15 | 2024-03-20 2024-03-21 02:40 |
2024-03-12 00:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 44.0% | 10.0% | 46.0% | Trump by 2.0% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-15 | 2024-03-26 2024-03-26 11:16 |
2024-03-12 00:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 36.0% | 22.0% | 42.0% | Trump by 6.0% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-15 | 2024-03-26 2024-03-26 11:13 |
2024-03-02 00:00 | Noble Predictive w/5P [2] | 33.0% | 27.0% | 40.0% | Trump by 7.0% | 2024-02-27 2024-03-05 | 2024-03-14 2024-03-15 02:05 |
2024-03-02 00:00 | Noble Predictive [2] | 40.0% | 15.0% | 45.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2024-02-27 2024-03-05 | 2024-03-14 2024-03-15 02:00 |
2024-02-18 00:00 | Emerson w/5P [2] | 34.3% | 21.4% | 44.3% | Trump by 10.0% | 2024-02-16 2024-02-19 | 2024-02-23 2024-02-23 01:53 |
2024-02-18 00:00 | Emerson [2] | 40.2% | 13.8% | 46.0% | Trump by 5.8% | 2024-02-16 2024-02-19 | 2024-02-22 2024-02-23 01:51 |
2024-02-15 12:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 42.0% | 10.0% | 48.0% | Trump by 6.0% | 2024-02-12 2024-02-18 | 2024-02-28 2024-03-01 06:47 |
2024-02-15 12:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 37.0% | 19.0% | 44.0% | Trump by 7.0% | 2024-02-12 2024-02-18 | 2024-02-28 2024-03-01 06:44 |
2024-01-20 12:00 | Focaldata LV 2W [3] | 49.0% | 0.0% | 51.0% | Trump by 2.0% | 2024-01-17 2024-01-23 | 2024-03-01 2024-03-02 03:14 |
2024-01-20 12:00 | Focaldata LV [3] | 42.0% | 14.0% | 44.0% | Trump by 2.0% | 2024-01-17 2024-01-23 | 2024-03-01 2024-03-02 03:12 |
2024-01-20 12:00 | Focaldata All [3] | 40.0% | 17.0% | 43.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2024-01-17 2024-01-23 | 2024-03-01 2024-03-02 03:11 |
2024-01-19 00:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 40.0% | 12.0% | 48.0% | Trump by 8.0% | 2024-01-16 2024-01-21 | 2024-01-31 2024-01-31 19:22 |
2024-01-19 00:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 31.0% | 26.0% | 43.0% | Trump by 12.0% | 2024-01-16 2024-01-21 | 2024-01-31 2024-01-31 19:17 |
2024-01-07 00:00 | Emerson w/5P [2] | 38.8% | 19.0% | 42.2% | Trump by 3.4% | 2024-01-05 2024-01-08 | 2024-01-09 2024-01-10 04:39 |
2024-01-07 00:00 | Emerson [2] | 45.3% | 7.7% | 47.0% | Trump by 1.7% | 2024-01-05 2024-01-08 | 2024-01-09 2024-01-10 04:36 |
2023-12-05 12:00 | Change Research | 40.0% | 16.0% | 44.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2023-12-03 2023-12-07 | 2024-01-08 2024-01-08 22:17 |
2023-12-02 00:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 44.0% | 9.0% | 47.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2023-11-27 2023-12-06 | 2023-12-14 2023-12-15 01:50 |
2023-12-02 00:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 37.0% | 21.0% | 42.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2023-11-27 2023-12-06 | 2023-12-14 2023-12-15 01:46 |
2023-11-03 12:00 | Morning Consult w/4P [2] | 35.0% | 26.0% | 39.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2023-10-30 2023-11-07 | 2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:11 |
2023-11-03 12:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 43.0% | 11.0% | 46.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2023-10-30 2023-11-07 | 2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:09 |
2023-11-02 00:00 | Emerson RV [2] | 39.4% | 14.4% | 46.2% | Trump by 6.8% | 2023-10-30 2023-11-04 | 2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:32 |
2023-11-02 00:00 | Emerson LV [2] | 44.2% | 8.5% | 47.3% | Trump by 3.1% | 2023-10-30 2023-11-04 | 2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:29 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena LV w/3P [6] | 34.0% | 26.0% | 40.0% | Trump by 6.0% | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-07 17:01 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena RV w/3P [6] | 31.0% | 31.0% | 38.0% | Trump by 7.0% | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-07 16:59 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena LV Definitely [6] | 33.0% | 26.0% | 41.0% | Trump by 8.0% | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:39 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena LV w/Lean [6] | 41.0% | 7.0% | 52.0% | Trump by 11.0% | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:36 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena RV Definitely [6] | 31.0% | 30.0% | 39.0% | Trump by 8.0% | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:13 |
2023-10-28 12:00 | Siena RV w/Lean [6] | 41.0% | 7.0% | 52.0% | Trump by 11.0% | 2023-10-22 2023-11-03 | 2023-11-05 2023-11-05 16:10 |
2023-10-25 00:00 | Tarrance | 46.0% | 8.0% | 46.0% | TIED | 2023-10-23 2023-10-26 | 2023-11-02 2023-11-02 19:21 |
2023-10-08 00:00 | Morning Consult | 46.0% | 11.0% | 43.0% | Biden by 3.0% | 2023-10-05 2023-10-10 | 2023-10-19 2023-10-19 15:57 |
2023-10-03 00:00 | SSRS | 46.0% | 9.0% | 45.0% | Biden by 1.0% | 2023-09-29 2023-10-06 | 2023-10-10 2023-10-11 04:32 |
2023-07-06 00:00 | Public Opinion Strategies Total [2] | 45.0% | 13.0% | 42.0% | Biden by 3.0% | 2023-07-05 2023-07-06 | 2023-07-07 2023-07-07 18:14 |
2023-07-06 00:00 | Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2] | 36.0% | 29.0% | 35.0% | Biden by 1.0% | 2023-07-05 2023-07-06 | 2023-07-07 2023-07-07 18:10 |
2023-06-21 12:00 | Prime w/NL [2] | 39.0% | 22.0% | 39.0% | TIED | 2023-06-14 2023-06-28 | 2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:32 |
2023-06-21 12:00 | Prime [2] | 51.0% | 0.0% | 49.0% | Biden by 2.0% | 2023-06-14 2023-06-28 | 2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:49 |
2023-05-23 12:00 | McLaughlin | 47.0% | 5.0% | 48.0% | Trump by 1.0% | 2023-05-22 2023-05-24 | 2023-06-06 2023-06-07 01:04 |
2023-05-17 12:00 | Vote TXT | 40.1% | 11.4% | 48.5% | Trump by 8.3% | 2023-05-15 2023-05-19 | 2023-05-22 2023-05-26 18:27 |
2023-04-22 12:00 | Noble Predictive Insights | 48.0% | 12.0% | 40.0% | Biden by 8.0% | 2023-04-18 2023-04-26 | 2023-05-02 2023-05-02 14:30 |
2023-04-19 00:00 | Public Opinion Strategies | 46.0% | 9.0% | 45.0% | Biden by 1.0% | 2023-04-17 2023-04-20 | 2023-04-24 2023-04-25 13:59 |
2023-02-03 00:00 | OH Predictive | 40.0% | 18.0% | 42.0% | Trump by 2.0% | 2023-01-30 2023-02-06 | 2023-02-09 2023-03-25 00:49 |
2022-11-09 00:00 | Rasmussen | 41.0% | 14.0% | 45.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2022-11-08 2022-11-09 | 2022-12-02 2023-03-24 06:53 |
2022-10-26 00:00 | Susquehanna | 47.0% | 5.0% | 48.0% | Trump by 1.0% | 2022-10-24 2022-10-27 | 2022-11-02 2023-03-24 02:18 |
2022-10-15 12:00 | Rasmussen | 37.0% | 14.0% | 49.0% | Trump by 12.0% | 2022-10-13 2022-10-17 | 2022-10-21 2023-03-23 05:08 |
2022-09-09 12:00 | Emerson | 39.8% | 17.7% | 42.5% | Trump by 2.7% | 2022-09-08 2022-09-10 | 2022-09-13 2023-03-22 03:04 |
2022-07-09 00:00 | Emerson | 40.1% | 16.9% | 43.0% | Trump by 2.9% | 2022-07-07 2022-07-10 | 2022-07-13 2023-03-21 01:37 |
2022-03-23 00:00 | Blueprint | 34.2% | 21.7% | 44.1% | Trump by 9.9% | 2022-03-21 2022-03-24 | 2022-03-25 2023-03-20 15:09 |
2020-11-03 12:00 | Election2020 | 50.1% | 2.3% | 47.7% | DEM by 2.4% | 2020-11-03 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-03 2023-03-16 15:27 |
2016-11-08 12:00 | Election2016 | 47.9% | 6.6% | 45.5% | DEM by 2.4% | 2016-11-08 2016-11-08 | 2016-11-08 2019-02-20 03:50 |
2012-11-06 12:00 | Election2012 | 52.4% | 2.0% | 45.7% | DEM by 6.7% | 2012-11-06 2012-11-06 | 2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:46 |
2008-11-04 12:00 | Election2008 | 55.2% | 2.2% | 42.7% | DEM by 12.5% | 2008-11-04 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:26 |
2004-11-02 12:00 | Election2004 | 47.9% | 1.7% | 50.5% | REP by 2.6% | 2004-11-02 2004-11-02 | 2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:51 |
2000-11-07 12:00 | Election2000 | 46.0% | 4.5% | 49.5% | REP by 3.5% | 2000-11-07 2000-11-07 | 2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:26 |
1996-11-06 12:00 | Election1996 | 43.9% | 13.2% | 42.9% | DEM by 1.0% | 1996-11-06 1996-11-06 | 1996-11-06 2014-02-16 16:05 |
1992-11-03 12:00 | Election1992 | 37.4% | 27.9% | 34.7% | DEM by 2.6% | 1992-11-03 1992-11-03 | 1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:18 |
1988-11-08 12:00 | Election1988 | 37.9% | 3.2% | 58.9% | REP by 20.9% | 1988-11-08 1988-11-08 | 1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:19 |
1984-11-06 12:00 | Election1984 | 32.0% | 2.2% | 65.9% | REP by 33.9% | 1984-11-06 1984-11-06 | 1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:30 |
1980-11-04 12:00 | Election1980 | 26.9% | 7.6% | 65.5% | REP by 38.6% | 1980-11-04 1980-11-04 | 1980-11-04 2014-10-17 18:52 |
The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".