Middate/Time | Pollster | Biden | <> | Trump | Margin | Start/End | Released/Entered |
---|
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data w/Lean LV [16] | 43.7% | 0.0% | 56.3% | Trump by 12.6% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-28 19:35 |
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data LV [16] | 38.1% | 10.6% | 51.3% | Trump by 13.2% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-28 19:33 |
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean LV w/6P [16] | 37.2% | 12.8% | 50.0% | Trump by 12.8% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-28 19:31 |
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data w/Gen3P LV w/6P [16] | 35.4% | 15.8% | 48.8% | Trump by 13.4% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-28 19:26 |
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean LV w/3P [16] | 37.2% | 12.2% | 50.6% | Trump by 13.4% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-28 19:24 |
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data w/Gen3P LV w/3P [16] | 36.7% | 13.2% | 50.1% | Trump by 13.4% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-28 19:22 |
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean LV [16] | 38.7% | 9.5% | 51.8% | Trump by 13.1% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-28 19:21 |
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data w/Gen3P LV [16] | 37.5% | 11.8% | 50.7% | Trump by 13.2% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-28 19:18 |
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data w/Lean Total [16] | 43.4% | 0.0% | 56.6% | Trump by 13.2% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-18 18:37 |
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data Total [16] | 37.0% | 11.9% | 51.1% | Trump by 14.1% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-18 18:35 |
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean Total w/6P [16] | 36.3% | 14.2% | 49.5% | Trump by 13.2% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-18 18:33 |
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data w/Gen3P Total w/6P [16] | 34.5% | 17.6% | 47.9% | Trump by 13.4% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-18 18:31 |
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean Total w/3P [16] | 36.4% | 13.7% | 49.9% | Trump by 13.5% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-18 18:28 |
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data w/Gen3P Total w/3P [16] | 35.7% | 15.1% | 49.2% | Trump by 13.5% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-18 18:26 |
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data w/Gen3P w/Lean Total [16] | 38.0% | 10.6% | 51.4% | Trump by 13.4% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-18 18:24 |
2024-03-10 00:00 | Big Data w/Gen3P Total [16] | 36.7% | 13.2% | 50.1% | Trump by 13.4% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-11 | 2024-03-15 2024-04-18 18:20 |
2023-12-29 12:00 | Redfield & Wilton w/3P | 34.0% | 21.0% | 45.0% | Trump by 11.0% | 2023-12-28 2023-12-30 | 2024-01-08 2024-01-08 22:32 |
2023-11-28 12:00 | Redfield & Wilton w/3P | 34.0% | 22.0% | 44.0% | Trump by 10.0% | 2023-11-27 2023-11-29 | 2023-12-05 2023-12-06 01:44 |
2023-11-14 12:00 | Cygnal Total w/3P [4] | 37.0% | 19.3% | 43.7% | Trump by 6.7% | 2023-11-13 2023-11-15 | 2023-11-20 2023-11-21 16:56 |
2023-11-14 12:00 | Cygnal Definitely w/3P [4] | 29.9% | 34.4% | 35.7% | Trump by 5.8% | 2023-11-13 2023-11-15 | 2023-11-20 2023-11-21 16:53 |
2023-11-14 12:00 | Cygnal Total [4] | 43.1% | 9.2% | 47.7% | Trump by 4.6% | 2023-11-13 2023-11-15 | 2023-11-20 2023-11-21 16:51 |
2023-11-14 12:00 | Cygnal Definitely [4] | 35.2% | 24.4% | 40.4% | Trump by 5.2% | 2023-11-13 2023-11-15 | 2023-11-20 2023-11-21 16:49 |
2023-11-04 00:00 | FAU | 38.6% | 12.1% | 49.3% | Trump by 10.7% | 2023-10-27 2023-11-11 | 2023-11-16 2023-11-17 02:42 |
2023-10-08 00:00 | Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2] | 37.0% | 19.0% | 44.0% | Trump by 7.0% | 2023-10-07 2023-10-08 | 2023-10-15 2023-10-16 02:01 |
2023-10-08 00:00 | Redfield & Wilton [2] | 39.0% | 17.0% | 44.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2023-10-07 2023-10-08 | 2023-10-15 2023-10-16 01:58 |
2023-06-29 12:00 | FAU | 39.0% | 12.0% | 49.0% | Trump by 10.0% | 2023-06-27 2023-07-01 | 2023-07-10 2023-07-11 00:48 |
2023-03-17 12:00 | MRS | 43.0% | 10.0% | 47.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2023-03-15 2023-03-19 | 2023-03-19 2023-03-25 07:13 |
2023-03-14 12:00 | Emerson | 44.2% | 12.3% | 43.5% | Biden by 0.7% | 2023-03-13 2023-03-15 | 2023-03-17 2023-03-25 06:58 |
2023-03-02 12:00 | UNF | 43.0% | 7.0% | 50.0% | Trump by 7.0% | 2023-02-25 2023-03-07 | 2023-03-09 2023-03-25 03:52 |
2022-11-17 00:00 | Victory w/Lean [2] | 51.0% | 0.0% | 49.0% | Biden by 2.0% | 2022-11-16 2022-11-17 | 2022-11-21 2023-03-24 05:17 |
2022-11-17 00:00 | Victory [2] | 48.3% | 8.9% | 42.8% | Biden by 5.5% | 2022-11-16 2022-11-17 | 2022-11-21 2023-03-24 05:13 |
2022-11-09 00:00 | Rasmussen | 40.0% | 11.0% | 49.0% | Trump by 9.0% | 2022-11-08 2022-11-09 | 2022-12-02 2023-03-24 06:50 |
2022-10-14 12:00 | FAU | 41.4% | 13.5% | 45.1% | Trump by 3.7% | 2022-10-12 2022-10-16 | 2022-10-21 2023-03-23 04:51 |
2022-09-17 00:00 | Suffolk | 44.4% | 9.0% | 46.6% | Trump by 2.2% | 2022-09-15 2022-09-18 | 2022-09-21 2023-03-23 01:37 |
2022-09-04 00:00 | Echelon Definitely [2] | 32.0% | 29.0% | 39.0% | Trump by 7.0% | 2022-08-31 2022-09-07 | 2022-09-13 2023-07-27 02:54 |
2022-09-04 00:00 | Echelon Total [2] | 41.0% | 10.0% | 49.0% | Trump by 8.0% | 2022-08-31 2022-09-07 | 2022-09-13 2023-03-22 00:47 |
2022-01-28 00:00 | Suffolk | 44.0% | 9.0% | 47.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2022-01-26 2022-01-29 | 2022-02-01 2023-03-20 14:00 |
2021-09-17 12:00 | Victory | 51.2% | 0.0% | 48.8% | Biden by 2.4% | 2021-09-16 2021-09-18 | 2021-10-12 2023-03-20 09:11 |
2021-08-17 00:00 | St Pete Unweighted [2] | 47.9% | 4.6% | 47.5% | Biden by 0.4% | 2021-08-16 2021-08-17 | 2021-08-17 2023-07-07 18:33 |
2021-08-17 00:00 | St Pete Weighted [2] | 48.0% | 4.6% | 47.4% | Biden by 0.6% | 2021-08-16 2021-08-17 | 2021-08-17 2023-03-20 07:22 |
2021-08-07 12:00 | Susquehanna | 50.0% | 8.0% | 42.0% | Biden by 8.0% | 2021-08-04 2021-08-10 | 2021-08-23 2023-03-20 07:28 |
2020-11-03 12:00 | Election2020 | 47.9% | 0.9% | 51.2% | REP by 3.4% | 2020-11-03 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-03 2023-03-15 02:35 |
2016-11-08 12:00 | Election2016 | 47.8% | 3.2% | 49.0% | REP by 1.2% | 2016-11-08 2016-11-08 | 2016-11-08 2019-02-18 06:21 |
2012-11-06 12:00 | Election2012 | 50.0% | 0.9% | 49.1% | DEM by 0.9% | 2012-11-06 2012-11-06 | 2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:08 |
2008-11-04 12:00 | Election2008 | 51.0% | 0.8% | 48.2% | DEM by 2.8% | 2008-11-04 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-04 2013-09-22 10:48 |
2004-11-02 12:00 | Election2004 | 47.1% | 0.8% | 52.1% | REP by 5.0% | 2004-11-02 2004-11-02 | 2004-11-02 2013-10-14 01:26 |
2000-11-07 12:00 | Election2000 | 48.8% | 2.3% | 48.9% | REP by 0.0% | 2000-11-07 2000-11-07 | 2000-11-07 2013-11-09 05:52 |
1996-11-06 12:00 | Election1996 | 48.0% | 9.7% | 42.3% | DEM by 5.7% | 1996-11-06 1996-11-06 | 1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:31 |
1992-11-03 12:00 | Election1992 | 39.0% | 20.1% | 40.9% | REP by 1.9% | 1992-11-03 1992-11-03 | 1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:16 |
1988-11-08 12:00 | Election1988 | 38.5% | 0.6% | 60.9% | REP by 22.4% | 1988-11-08 1988-11-08 | 1988-11-08 2014-05-17 05:14 |
1984-11-06 12:00 | Election1984 | 34.7% | 0.0% | 65.3% | REP by 30.7% | 1984-11-06 1984-11-06 | 1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:24 |
1980-11-04 12:00 | Election1980 | 38.5% | 6.0% | 55.5% | REP by 17.0% | 1980-11-04 1980-11-04 | 1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:24 |
The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".