2020 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations in Texas [38 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2019-09-14 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2019-09-19 17:47 UTC

State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to National Summary

 

 

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 1.6 months.

Biden Trump
44.3% 42.1%
 
Biden up by 2.2%
(Weak Biden)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
67.2% 32.8%
Biden vs Trump Texas Details

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 1.6 months.

Warren Trump
40.9% 43.5%
 
Trump up by 2.6%
(Weak Trump)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Warren Trump
16.6% 83.4%
Warren vs Trump Texas Details

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 1.6 months.

Sanders Trump
43.9% 42.7%
 
Sanders up by 1.2%
(Weak Sanders)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Sanders Trump
58.4% 41.6%
Sanders vs Trump Texas Details

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 1.8 months.

Buttigieg Trump
35.7% 42.3%
 
Trump up by 6.6%
(Strong Trump)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Buttigieg Trump
1.0% 99.0%
Buttigieg vs Trump Texas Details

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 1.6 months.

Harris Trump
39.1% 44.1%
 
Trump up by 5.1%
(Strong Trump)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Harris Trump
3.0% 97.0%
Harris vs Trump Texas Details

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 1.8 months.

O'Rourke Trump
45.2% 42.3%
 
O'Rourke up by 2.9%
(Weak O'Rourke)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

O'Rourke Trump
73.0% 27.0%
O'Rourke vs Trump Texas Details

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

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If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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