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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Texas [38 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-31 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:44 UTC

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-31 00:00

AtlasIntel

47.3%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.7%

2020-10-30
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-02 04:09

2020-10-30 12:00

Swayable w/4P

47.2%

51.2%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-27
2020-11-02

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 07:02

2020-10-30 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

48.8%

49.7%

Trump
by 0.9%

2020-10-29
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-02 00:02

2020-10-30 12:00

Emerson [2]

48.6%

49.4%

Trump
by 0.8%

2020-10-29
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-02 00:00

2020-10-30 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-27
2020-11-01

2020-11-01
2020-11-02 03:22

2020-10-29 00:00

PPP

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-28
2020-10-29

2020-10-31
2020-10-31 17:53

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-28 00:00

Gravis

45.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-10-27
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-01 19:52

2020-10-28 00:00

RMG w/Strong D Turnout [3]

48.0%

48.0%

TIED

2020-10-27
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-10-30 01:53

2020-10-28 00:00

RMG w/Strong R Turnout [3]

44.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-10-27
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-10-30 01:52

2020-10-28 00:00

RMG [3]

46.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-27
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-10-30 01:50

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 17:44

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 17:44

2020-10-27 00:00

Morning Consult

48.1%

48.1%

TIED

2020-10-22
2020-10-31

2020-11-02
2020-11-02 11:39

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 14:56

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 14:56

2020-10-25 00:00

Swayable w/4P

47.5%

48.6%

Trump
by 1.1%

2020-10-23
2020-10-26

2020-10-28
2020-10-30 23:00

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 14:56

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 14:56

2020-10-24 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-22
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-26 17:23

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-01 11:32

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-01 11:32

2020-10-23 12:00

UMass Lowell w/4P

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-10-20
2020-10-26

2020-10-29
2020-10-29 18:52

2020-10-23 00:00

Siena w/4P

43.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-20
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-26 17:39

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-01 11:32

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-01 11:32

2020-10-21 12:00

Univision Total [2]

46.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-25

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 18:16

2020-10-21 12:00

Univision Certain [2]

41.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-25

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 18:14

2020-10-19 00:00

Citizen Data w/4P

48.9%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.9%

2020-10-17
2020-10-20

2020-10-29
2020-10-29 18:29

2020-10-18 00:00

Quinnipiac

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-10-16
2020-10-19

2020-10-21
2020-10-21 18:57

2020-10-17 00:00

YouGov w/4P

44.7%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.3%

2020-10-13
2020-10-20

2020-10-26
2020-10-26 16:40

2020-10-17 00:00

UT Tyler LV w/4P [2]

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-13
2020-10-20

2020-10-25
2020-10-25 18:44

2020-10-17 00:00

UT Tyler RV w/4P [2]

46.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-13
2020-10-20

2020-10-25
2020-10-25 18:41

2020-10-17 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P

47.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-18

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 00:58

2020-10-16 00:00

Morning Consult

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-11
2020-10-20

2020-10-22
2020-10-22 15:58

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-01 11:32

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-01 11:32

2020-10-13 12:00

CCES/YouGov

47.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-11-01
2020-11-02 02:42

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 21:54

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 21:54

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-28 21:54

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-28 21:54

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

48.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-28 21:54

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-28 21:54

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-28 21:54

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-28 21:54

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-08 00:00

PPP

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-07
2020-10-08

2020-10-08
2020-10-09 17:21

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-07 00:00

Morning Consult

47.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 19:08

2020-10-06 00:00

Pulse

44.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-10-05
2020-10-06

2020-10-08
2020-10-09 16:21

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-05 00:00

Civiqs

48.0%

48.0%

TIED

2020-10-03
2020-10-06

2020-10-07
2020-10-09 15:21

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-03 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-05

2020-10-07
2020-10-08 22:25

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-25 19:49

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 18:14

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 05:28

2020-09-30 00:00

YouGov w/4P

45.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-04

2020-10-09
2020-10-09 17:24

2020-09-30 00:00

EMC

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-09-27
2020-10-02

2020-10-07
2020-10-08 07:01

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 20:07

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 21:48

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 20:20

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 08:46

2020-09-26 00:00

Hart Research

47.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-24
2020-09-27

2020-10-02
2020-10-02 22:59

2020-09-26 00:00

PPP

48.0%

48.0%

TIED

2020-09-25
2020-09-26

2020-09-28
2020-09-28 14:17

2020-09-22 00:00

UMass Lowell [2]

46.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-18
2020-09-25

2020-09-29
2020-09-29 21:03

2020-09-22 00:00

UMass Lowell w/4P [2]

46.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-18
2020-09-25

2020-09-20
2020-09-29 21:01

2020-09-19 12:00

Quinnipiac

45.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-21

2020-09-23
2020-09-27 05:44

2020-09-19 12:00

Siena w/4P

43.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-16
2020-09-22

2020-09-23
2020-09-27 05:35

2020-09-19 00:00

Data for Progress

45.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-15
2020-09-22

2020-09-24
2020-09-27 16:58

2020-09-17 00:00

YouGov

46.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-15
2020-09-18

2020-09-20
2020-09-20 18:34

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

48.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 04:29

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

46.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 17:45

2020-09-03 00:00

Morning Consult

46.0%

46.0%

TIED

2020-08-29
2020-09-07

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 17:38

2020-09-02 00:00

PPP

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-02

2020-09-08
2020-09-08 19:40

2020-08-31 00:00

UT Tyler LV w/4P [2]

46.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-08-28
2020-09-02

2020-09-06
2020-09-06 19:39

2020-08-31 00:00

UT Tyler RV w/4P [2]

44.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-08-28
2020-09-02

2020-09-06
2020-09-06 19:35

2020-08-26 00:00

Morning Consult

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-30

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 16:16

2020-08-23 00:00

Tyson Group

48.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-08-20
2020-08-25

2020-09-21
2020-09-21 14:44

2020-08-23 00:00

Data for Progress

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-08-20
2020-08-25

2020-09-04
2020-09-04 17:55

2020-08-22 00:00

PPP

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-22

2020-08-24
2020-08-24 19:52

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

46.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 04:26

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 18:03

2020-08-12 12:00

GSG

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-08-11
2020-08-13

2020-08-14
2020-08-20 17:49

2020-08-12 00:00

Morning Consult

46.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-08-07
2020-08-16

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 16:14

2020-08-09 00:00

YouGov LV w/4P [2]

44.1%

49.5%

Trump
by 5.4%

2020-08-04
2020-08-13

2020-08-17
2020-08-17 14:07

2020-08-09 00:00

YouGov RV w/4P [2]

40.5%

47.5%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-08-04
2020-08-13

2020-08-17
2020-08-17 14:05

2020-08-03 12:00

Trafalgar w/3P

43.4%

49.4%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-05

2020-08-07
2020-08-07 20:45

2020-07-29 00:00

Morning Consult

47.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-07-24
2020-08-02

2020-08-04
2020-08-05 17:06

2020-07-22 00:00

Morning Consult

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-07-17
2020-07-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 07:11

2020-07-18 12:00

Spry

44.8%

49.5%

Trump
by 4.7%

2020-07-16
2020-07-20

2020-07-22
2020-07-23 19:41

2020-07-18 12:00

Quinnipiac

45.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-07-16
2020-07-20

2020-07-22
2020-07-22 18:04

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

46.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 04:24

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 15:28

2020-07-09 00:00

YouGov

45.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-07-07
2020-07-10

2020-07-12
2020-07-12 15:09

2020-07-07 12:00

Gravis

44.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-07-07
2020-07-07

2020-07-13
2020-07-14 23:14

2020-07-03 12:00

UT Tyler LV [2]

48.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-06-29
2020-07-07

2020-07-12
2020-07-12 15:01

2020-07-03 12:00

UT Tyler RV [2]

46.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-06-29
2020-07-07

2020-07-12
2020-07-12 14:58

2020-06-25 00:00

PPP

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-06-24
2020-06-25

2020-07-02
2020-07-02 19:03

2020-06-24 12:00

YouGov

44.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-06-19
2020-06-29

2020-07-02
2020-07-02 19:07

2020-06-22 00:00

Fox News

45.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-06-20
2020-06-23

2020-06-25
2020-06-25 22:35

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

46.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 04:21

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 19:29

2020-06-19 00:00

PPP

46.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-06-18
2020-06-19

2020-06-23
2020-06-24 06:54

2020-06-04 00:00

PPP

48.0%

48.0%

TIED

2020-06-03
2020-06-04

2020-06-05
2020-06-06 15:59

2020-05-30 12:00

Quinnipiac

43.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-05-28
2020-06-01

2020-06-03
2020-06-03 19:01

2020-05-22 00:00

Morning Consult

43.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-05-17
2020-05-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-29 18:11

2020-05-09 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

48.3%

51.7%

Trump
by 3.4%

2020-05-08
2020-05-10

2020-05-11
2020-05-11 23:17

2020-05-09 12:00

Emerson [2]

41.0%

47.1%

Trump
by 6.1%

2020-05-08
2020-05-10

2020-05-11
2020-05-11 23:15

2020-04-28 00:00

PPP

47.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-04-27
2020-04-28

2020-04-29
2020-04-29 18:46

2020-04-23 00:00

UT Tyler

43.0%

43.0%

TIED

2020-04-18
2020-04-27

2020-05-02
2020-05-02 20:36

2020-04-15 00:00

UT/TT

44.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-04-10
2020-04-19

2020-04-25
2020-04-25 06:58

2020-02-28 00:00

AtlasIntel

42.8%

46.5%

Trump
by 3.7%

2020-02-24
2020-03-02

2020-03-02
2020-03-03 07:56

2020-02-25 12:00

Marist

45.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-02-23
2020-02-27

2020-03-01
2020-03-01 18:05

2020-02-24 12:00

CNN

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-02-22
2020-02-26

2020-02-28
2020-02-29 00:20

2020-02-24 00:00

Univision w/Lean [2]

43.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-02-21
2020-02-26

2020-02-28
2020-02-28 23:45

2020-02-24 00:00

Univision wo/Lean [2]

37.0%

39.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-02-21
2020-02-26

2020-02-28
2020-02-28 23:44

2020-02-22 00:00

UT Tyler

44.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-02-17
2020-02-26

2020-03-01
2020-03-01 17:02

2020-02-05 00:00

UT/TT

43.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-01-31
2020-02-09

2020-02-14
2020-02-14 06:14

2020-01-26 00:00

UT Tyler LV [2]

44.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-01-21
2020-01-30

2020-02-02
2020-02-03 00:42

2020-01-26 00:00

UT Tyler RV [2]

42.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-01-21
2020-01-30

2020-02-02
2020-02-03 00:26

2020-01-19 00:00

Data for Progress wo/DK [2]

40.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 14.0%

2020-01-16
2020-01-21

2020-01-29
2020-01-29 21:51

2020-01-19 00:00

Data for Progress w/DK [2]

39.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2020-01-16
2020-01-21

2020-01-29
2020-01-29 21:49

2020-01-15 00:00

Texas Lyceum

46.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-01-10
2020-01-19

2020-01-29
2020-01-29 17:41

2019-12-06 12:00

CNN

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2019-12-04
2019-12-08

2019-12-11
2019-12-11 20:21

2019-11-15 12:00

Beacon

44.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2019-11-09
2019-11-21

2019-12-02
2019-12-03 23:12

2019-11-10 00:00

UT Tyler

39.4%

44.5%

Trump
by 5.1%

2019-11-05
2019-11-14

2019-11-18
2019-11-18 17:53

2019-10-23 00:00

UT/TT

39.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2019-10-18
2019-10-27

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 07:57

2019-09-14 12:00

UT Tyler

39.6%

38.0%

Biden
by 1.6%

2019-09-13
2019-09-15

2019-09-19
2019-09-19 17:31

2019-09-03 12:00

Univision

47.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2019-08-31
2019-09-06

2019-09-10
2019-09-10 18:18

2019-08-23 00:00

Climate Nexus

43.0%

43.0%

TIED

2019-08-20
2019-08-25

2019-09-11
2019-09-11 16:34

2019-08-03 00:00

UT Tyler

41.2%

37.2%

Biden
by 4.0%

2019-08-01
2019-08-04

2019-08-06
2019-08-06 17:42

2019-08-02 12:00

Emerson

50.8%

49.2%

Biden
by 1.6%

2019-08-01
2019-08-03

2019-08-06
2019-08-06 16:57

2019-07-26 00:00

UT Tyler

36.9%

37.1%

Trump
by 0.2%

2019-07-24
2019-07-27

2019-07-30
2019-07-30 15:58

2019-06-01 12:00

Quinnipiac

48.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2019-05-29
2019-06-04

2019-06-05
2019-06-05 17:54

2019-04-29 00:00

WPA Intelligence

42.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2019-04-27
2019-04-30

2019-05-11
2019-05-12 07:20

2019-04-27 00:00

Emerson

50.5%

49.5%

Biden
by 1.0%

2019-04-25
2019-04-28

2019-04-28
2019-04-29 15:12

2019-03-22 00:00

Trump Internal (NBC) [2]

49.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2019-03-15
2019-03-28

2019-06-16
2019-06-16 17:52

2019-03-22 00:00

Trump Internal (ABC) [2]

49.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2019-03-15
2019-03-28

2019-06-14
2019-06-16 17:50

2019-02-23 00:00

Quinnipiac

46.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2019-02-20
2019-02-25

2019-02-28
2019-03-07 03:18

2019-02-14 00:00

PPP

46.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2019-02-13
2019-02-14

2019-02-15
2019-03-06 07:14

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

43.2%

52.2%

REP
by 9.0%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-24 18:11

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

41.4%

57.2%

REP
by 15.8%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:13

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

43.7%

55.5%

REP
by 11.8%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-06 01:52

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

38.2%

61.1%

REP
by 22.9%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:11

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

38.0%

59.3%

REP
by 21.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 11:05

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

43.8%

48.8%

REP
by 4.9%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-18 15:44

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

37.1%

40.6%

REP
by 3.5%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:58

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

43.4%

56.0%

REP
by 12.6%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 20:01

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

36.1%

63.6%

REP
by 27.5%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 07:07

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

41.4%

55.3%

REP
by 13.9%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:20

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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