2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Ohio [18 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-11-01 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:10 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-11-01 00:00

Research Co

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-10-31
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-02 22:14

2020-11-01 00:00

Rassmussen w/Lean [2]

45.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-31
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-02 21:58

2020-11-01 00:00

Rassmussen [2]

45.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-10-31
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-02 21:57

2020-10-31 00:00

Trafalgar w/3P

44.4%

49.2%

Trump
by 4.8%

2020-10-30
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-02 11:06

2020-10-31 00:00

Civiqs

48.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-10-29
2020-11-01

2020-11-01
2020-11-02 03:12

2020-10-30 12:00

Quinnipiac

47.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-28
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 01:34

2020-10-30 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.6%

48.7%

Biden
by 0.9%

2020-10-29
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-01 20:48

2020-10-30 12:00

Emerson [2]

49.0%

48.4%

Biden
by 0.6%

2020-10-29
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-01 20:46

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-30 00:00

Swayable w/4P

47.1%

52.3%

Trump
by 5.2%

2020-10-27
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 06:17

2020-10-30 00:00

AtlasIntel

46.5%

50.4%

Trump
by 3.9%

2020-10-29
2020-10-30

2020-11-02
2020-11-02 23:26

2020-10-28 00:00

Gravis

47.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-27
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-10-29 20:48

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 18:10

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 18:10

2020-10-27 00:00

Morning Consult

46.6%

49.2%

Trump
by 2.6%

2020-10-22
2020-10-31

2020-11-02
2020-11-02 11:32

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 16:21

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

47.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 16:21

2020-10-25 12:00

Quinnipiac

48.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-23
2020-10-27

2020-10-29
2020-10-29 19:02

2020-10-25 00:00

Wick

46.5%

49.4%

Trump
by 2.9%

2020-10-24
2020-10-25

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 09:29

2020-10-25 00:00

Swayable w/4P

43.6%

55.3%

Trump
by 11.7%

2020-10-23
2020-10-26

2020-10-28
2020-10-30 21:06

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

48.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 16:21

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 16:21

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-03 11:31

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-03 11:31

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-03 11:31

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-03 11:31

2020-10-19 00:00

Citizen Data w/4P

43.2%

44.4%

Trump
by 1.2%

2020-10-17
2020-10-20

2020-10-29
2020-10-29 18:22

2020-10-19 00:00

Fox News RV w/4P [2]

44.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-22 05:49

2020-10-19 00:00

Fox News LV w/4P [2]

45.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-22 05:47

2020-10-19 00:00

Rassmussen w/Lean [2]

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-18
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 15:49

2020-10-19 00:00

Rassmussen [2]

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-18
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 15:47

2020-10-16 00:00

Morning Consult

47.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-11
2020-10-20

2020-10-22
2020-10-22 15:51

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-03 11:31

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-03 11:31

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-31 19:16

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-31 19:16

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-31 19:16

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-31 19:16

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

48.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-31 19:16

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-31 19:16

2020-10-10 12:00

Quinnipiac

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-08
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-15 04:09

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

48.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-31 19:16

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-31 19:16

2020-10-10 00:00

Civiqs

47.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-10-08
2020-10-11

2020-10-15
2020-10-15 19:54

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

48.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-07 00:00

Morning Consult

46.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 18:38

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

48.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-04 12:00

Baldwin Wallace w/4P

45.4%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.6%

2020-09-30
2020-10-08

2020-10-11
2020-10-11 05:20

2020-10-04 12:00

Siena w/4P

45.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-06

2020-10-07
2020-10-09 14:41

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-02 12:00

Trafalgar w/4P

43.9%

47.6%

Trump
by 3.7%

2020-10-01
2020-10-03

2020-10-05
2020-10-06 15:44

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-26 21:50

2020-10-01 12:00

YouGov

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-09-30
2020-10-02

2020-10-04
2020-10-04 20:42

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 19:12

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 06:05

2020-09-30 00:00

OnMessage w/Lean w/4P [2]

47.0%

47.5%

Trump
by 0.5%

2020-09-28
2020-10-01

2020-10-22
2020-10-23 21:28

2020-09-30 00:00

OnMessage w/4P [2]

47.0%

45.4%

Biden
by 1.6%

2020-09-28
2020-10-01

2020-10-22
2020-10-23 21:24

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 20:45

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

47.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 22:29

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 21:45

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 08:13

2020-09-26 00:00

Hart Research

47.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-24
2020-09-27

2020-10-02
2020-10-02 22:57

2020-09-22 00:00

Fox News RV w/4P [2]

49.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-20
2020-09-23

2020-09-23
2020-09-27 08:32

2020-09-22 00:00

Fox News LV w/4P [2]

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-20
2020-09-23

2020-09-23
2020-09-27 08:30

2020-09-19 12:00

Quinnipiac

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-21

2020-09-23
2020-09-27 05:40

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 03:03

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 21:09

2020-09-15 12:00

Baldwin Wallace

44.9%

44.3%

Biden
by 0.6%

2020-09-08
2020-09-22

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 18:48

2020-09-13 12:00

Civiqs

45.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-09-11
2020-09-15

2020-09-18
2020-09-18 22:23

2020-09-03 00:00

Morning Consult

45.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-07

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 17:24

2020-09-02 00:00

OnMessage w/Lean [2]

44.8%

50.5%

Trump
by 5.7%

2020-08-31
2020-09-03

2020-09-22
2020-10-23 21:22

2020-09-02 00:00

OnMessage [2]

44.1%

48.3%

Trump
by 4.2%

2020-08-31
2020-09-03

2020-09-22
2020-10-23 21:20

2020-09-02 00:00

Rassmussen w/Lean [2]

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-02

2020-09-08
2020-09-08 15:33

2020-09-02 00:00

Rassmussen [2]

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-02

2020-09-08
2020-09-08 15:31

2020-08-29 12:00

ALG Research

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-08-26
2020-09-01

2020-10-01
2020-10-01 15:38

2020-08-26 00:00

Morning Consult

45.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-30

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 16:25

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

48.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 02:51

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 17:37

2020-08-15 12:00

Civiqs

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-08-13
2020-08-17

2020-08-21
2020-08-21 22:01

2020-08-12 00:00

Morning Consult

45.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-08-07
2020-08-16

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 16:23

2020-07-31 12:00

TargetSmart

47.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-07-28
2020-08-03

2020-08-21
2020-08-24 17:12

2020-07-23 00:00

YouGov

45.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-07-21
2020-07-24

2020-07-26
2020-07-26 18:17

2020-07-22 12:00

Zogby w/4P

43.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-07-21
2020-07-23

2020-08-05
2020-08-05 17:35

2020-07-22 00:00

Morning Consult

45.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-07-17
2020-07-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 07:07

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

46.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 02:48

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 07:08

2020-07-16 00:00

Rasmussen w/Lean [2]

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-07-15
2020-07-16

2020-07-21
2020-07-22 16:56

2020-07-16 00:00

Rasmussen [2]

47.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-07-15
2020-07-16

2020-07-21
2020-07-22 16:54

2020-07-05 00:00

Bliss Institute

46.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-06-24
2020-07-15

2020-08-03
2020-08-03 16:54

2020-06-20 12:00

Quinnipiac

46.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-06-18
2020-06-22

2020-06-24
2020-06-24 18:59

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

49.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 02:44

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 19:14

2020-06-01 00:00

Fox News

45.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-05-30
2020-06-02

2020-06-03
2020-06-04 02:52

2020-05-22 00:00

Morning Consult

42.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-05-17
2020-05-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-29 18:08

2020-05-09 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

48.7%

51.4%

Trump
by 2.7%

2020-05-08
2020-05-10

2020-05-11
2020-05-11 23:11

2020-05-09 12:00

Emerson [2]

42.5%

46.1%

Trump
by 3.6%

2020-05-08
2020-05-10

2020-05-11
2020-05-11 23:07

2020-04-23 00:00

Baldwin Wallace w/Probably [2]

44.9%

44.2%

Biden
by 0.7%

2020-04-20
2020-04-25

2020-04-26
2020-04-27 17:15

2020-04-23 00:00

Baldwin Wallace Definitely [2]

31.1%

32.2%

Trump
by 1.1%

2020-04-20
2020-04-25

2020-04-26
2020-04-27 17:09

2020-03-21 12:00

Baldwin Wallace w/Probably [2]

42.9%

47.2%

Trump
by 4.3%

2020-03-17
2020-03-25

2020-03-26
2020-03-26 16:34

2020-03-21 12:00

Baldwin Wallace Definitely [2]

28.7%

38.6%

Trump
by 9.9%

2020-03-17
2020-03-25

2020-03-26
2020-03-26 16:32

2020-03-12 00:00

Marist

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-03-10
2020-03-13

2020-03-16
2020-03-16 18:22

2019-10-11 00:00

PPP

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2019-10-10
2019-10-11

2019-10-14
2019-10-14 18:20

2019-10-04 12:00

Climate Nexus w/Lean [2]

53.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2019-10-01
2019-10-07

2019-10-14
2019-10-14 20:13

2019-10-04 12:00

Climate Nexus [2]

48.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2019-10-01
2019-10-07

2019-10-14
2019-10-14 20:07

2019-10-01 00:00

Emerson

52.6%

47.4%

Biden
by 5.2%

2019-09-29
2019-10-02

2019-10-03
2019-10-03 16:52

2019-07-20 00:00

Quinnipiac

50.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2019-07-17
2019-07-22

2019-07-25
2019-07-25 19:05

2019-03-22 00:00

Trump Internal (NBC)

46.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2019-03-15
2019-03-28

2019-06-16
2019-06-16 18:16

2018-11-28 00:00

PPP

48.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2018-11-27
2018-11-28

2018-11-29
2019-03-04 06:12

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

43.6%

51.7%

REP
by 8.1%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 04:20

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

50.7%

47.7%

DEM
by 3.0%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:05

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

51.5%

46.9%

DEM
by 4.6%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-05 08:33

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

48.7%

50.8%

REP
by 2.1%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:00

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

46.5%

50.0%

REP
by 3.5%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:42

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

47.4%

41.0%

DEM
by 6.4%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 18:19

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

40.2%

38.4%

DEM
by 1.8%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:37

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

44.2%

55.0%

REP
by 10.9%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:40

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

40.1%

58.9%

REP
by 18.8%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:49

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

40.9%

51.5%

REP
by 10.6%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:04

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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