2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - North Carolina [15 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-31 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:35 UTC

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-31 00:00

Change Research

49.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-29
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 08:19

2020-10-31 00:00

FrederickPolls

51.0%

49.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-30
2020-10-31

2020-11-02
2020-11-02 18:42

2020-10-31 00:00

InsiderAdvantage w/3P

43.6%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.4%

2020-10-30
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-01 22:07

2020-10-31 00:00

AtlasIntel

47.5%

49.5%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-30
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-01 22:02

2020-10-30 12:00

Swayable w/4P

52.3%

46.4%

Biden
by 5.9%

2020-10-27
2020-11-02

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 06:58

2020-10-30 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

47.5%

47.1%

Biden
by 0.4%

2020-10-29
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-02 00:07

2020-10-30 12:00

Emerson [2]

46.6%

46.7%

Trump
by 0.1%

2020-10-29
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-02 00:04

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-30 00:00

Ipsos w/5P [3]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-27
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 01:01

2020-10-30 00:00

Ipsos w/Lean [3]

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-27
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 00:59

2020-10-30 00:00

Ipsos [3]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-27
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 00:56

2020-10-30 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-27
2020-11-01

2020-11-01
2020-11-02 03:02

2020-10-29 00:00

Rassmussen w/Lean [2]

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-10-28
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-10-30 23:52

2020-10-29 00:00

Rassmussen [2]

46.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-28
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-10-30 23:50

2020-10-28 12:00

Trafalgar w/Lean w/3P [2]

46.5%

48.6%

Trump
by 2.1%

2020-10-27
2020-10-29

2020-11-01
2020-11-01 19:59

2020-10-28 12:00

Trafalgar w/3P [2]

45.1%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.9%

2020-10-27
2020-10-29

2020-11-01
2020-11-01 19:57

2020-10-28 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

49.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-26
2020-10-29

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 04:30

2020-10-28 00:00

East Carolina University w/Lean [2]

50.4%

47.6%

Biden
by 2.8%

2020-10-27
2020-10-28

2020-10-30
2020-10-31 02:01

2020-10-28 00:00

East Carolina University [2]

49.5%

46.7%

Biden
by 2.8%

2020-10-27
2020-10-28

2020-10-30
2020-10-31 01:58

2020-10-28 00:00

Cardinal Point w/5P

45.9%

48.1%

Trump
by 2.2%

2020-10-27
2020-10-28

2020-10-30
2020-10-30 23:17

2020-10-28 00:00

Harris

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-26
2020-10-29

2020-10-29
2020-10-30 02:18

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 18:35

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 18:35

2020-10-27 00:00

Morning Consult

49.1%

48.4%

Biden
by 0.7%

2020-10-22
2020-10-31

2020-11-02
2020-11-02 11:30

2020-10-27 00:00

CNN/SSRS RV w/5P [2]

50.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-23
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-10-31 22:54

2020-10-27 00:00

CNN/SSRS LV w/5P [2]

51.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-23
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-10-31 22:52

2020-10-27 00:00

Marist LV [2]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-25
2020-10-28

2020-10-30
2020-10-30 23:14

2020-10-27 00:00

Marist RV [2]

51.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-25
2020-10-28

2020-10-30
2020-10-30 23:10

2020-10-27 00:00

Gravis

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-26
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 18:46

2020-10-27 00:00

PPP

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-26
2020-10-27

2020-10-27
2020-10-27 20:54

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 16:40

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 16:40

2020-10-26 00:00

Meeting Street

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-24
2020-10-27

2020-10-30
2020-10-31 02:44

2020-10-25 12:00

Siena w/4P

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-23
2020-10-27

2020-10-29
2020-10-29 19:33

2020-10-25 12:00

RMG w/Strong D Turnout [3]

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-24
2020-10-26

2020-10-27
2020-10-27 20:45

2020-10-25 12:00

RMG w/Strong R Turnout [3]

47.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-24
2020-10-26

2020-10-27
2020-10-27 20:44

2020-10-25 12:00

RMG [3]

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-24
2020-10-26

2020-10-27
2020-10-27 20:40

2020-10-25 00:00

Wick

47.2%

49.4%

Trump
by 2.2%

2020-10-24
2020-10-25

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 09:27

2020-10-25 00:00

Swayable w/4P

50.2%

47.5%

Biden
by 2.7%

2020-10-23
2020-10-26

2020-10-28
2020-10-30 21:01

2020-10-25 00:00

SurveyUSA

48.0%

48.0%

TIED

2020-10-23
2020-10-26

2020-10-27
2020-10-27 21:03

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 16:40

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

52.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 16:40

2020-10-24 12:00

Ipsos w/5P [2]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-21
2020-10-27

2020-10-27
2020-10-27 22:03

2020-10-24 12:00

Ipsos [2]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-21
2020-10-27

2020-10-27
2020-10-27 20:52

2020-10-24 00:00

Civitas w/5P

47.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-22
2020-10-25

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 17:30

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-03 11:54

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

52.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-03 11:54

2020-10-23 12:00

UMass Lowell w/4P

48.0%

48.0%

TIED

2020-10-20
2020-10-26

2020-10-29
2020-10-29 18:54

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-03 11:54

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-03 11:54

2020-10-22 00:00

YouGov

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-20
2020-10-23

2020-10-25
2020-10-25 18:59

2020-10-21 12:00

Trafalgar w/5P

46.0%

48.8%

Trump
by 2.8%

2020-10-20
2020-10-22

2020-10-25
2020-10-25 19:21

2020-10-21 00:00

Rassmussen w/Lean [2]

48.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-10-20
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-22 18:13

2020-10-21 00:00

Rassmussen [2]

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-10-20
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-22 18:11

2020-10-19 00:00

Citizen Data w/4P

50.2%

43.6%

Biden
by 6.5%

2020-10-17
2020-10-20

2020-10-29
2020-10-29 18:18

2020-10-18 00:00

Meredith w/5P

48.1%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.1%

2020-10-16
2020-10-19

2020-10-23
2020-10-23 17:20

2020-10-18 00:00

Change Research

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 15:35

2020-10-17 12:00

Ipsos w/5P [2]

49.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-14
2020-10-20

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 16:05

2020-10-17 12:00

Ipsos [2]

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-14
2020-10-20

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 16:03

2020-10-17 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P

48.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-18

2020-10-23
2020-10-23 21:51

2020-10-17 00:00

East Carolina University

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-18

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 06:21

2020-10-16 00:00

Morning Consult

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-11
2020-10-20

2020-10-22
2020-10-22 15:49

2020-10-15 00:00

ABC/WaPo RV [4]

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-12
2020-10-17

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 06:15

2020-10-15 00:00

ABC/WaPo LV [4]

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-12
2020-10-17

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 06:13

2020-10-15 00:00

ABC/WaPo RV w/4P [4]

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-12
2020-10-17

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 06:11

2020-10-15 00:00

ABC/WaPo LV w/4P [4]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-12
2020-10-17

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 06:09

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-03 11:54

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-03 11:54

2020-10-14 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.2%

49.2%

TIED

2020-10-13
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-16 15:04

2020-10-14 00:00

Emerson [2]

48.9%

48.9%

TIED

2020-10-13
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-16 15:00

2020-10-13 12:00

CCES/YouGov

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-11-01
2020-11-02 02:38

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-31 20:09

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

52.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-31 20:09

2020-10-13 00:00

Civiqs

51.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-11
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-15 18:45

2020-10-12 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-10
2020-10-13

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 04:09

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-31 20:09

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-31 20:09

2020-10-11 12:00

Siena w/4P

46.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-09
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 04:55

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-31 20:09

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-31 20:09

2020-10-10 12:00

Ipsos w/5P [2]

48.0%

48.0%

TIED

2020-10-07
2020-10-13

2020-10-13
2020-10-14 02:31

2020-10-10 12:00

Ipsos [2]

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-07
2020-10-13

2020-10-13
2020-10-14 02:28

2020-10-10 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

49.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-10-09
2020-10-10

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 04:11

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-31 20:09

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-31 20:09

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyUSA

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-08
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-14 01:41

2020-10-10 00:00

Monmouth Low Turnout [3]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-08
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 19:23

2020-10-10 00:00

Monmouth High Turnout [3]

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-08
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 19:21

2020-10-10 00:00

Monmouth RV w/3P [3]

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-08
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 19:19

2020-10-09 12:00

Susquehanna Total w/3P [2]

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-07
2020-10-11

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 01:31

2020-10-09 12:00

Susquehanna Definitely w/3P [2]

44.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-07
2020-10-11

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 01:30

2020-10-09 12:00

RMG w/Strong D Turnout w/4P [3]

49.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-07
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-14 21:09

2020-10-09 12:00

RMG w/Strong R Turnout w/4P [3]

44.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-10-07
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-14 21:06

2020-10-09 12:00

RMG w/4P [3]

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-07
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-14 21:05

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-07 00:00

Morning Consult

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 18:35

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-05 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

49.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-04
2020-10-06

2020-10-09
2020-10-09 19:03

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-05 00:00

PPP

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-04
2020-10-05

2020-10-05
2020-10-06 17:32

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-03 12:00

East Carolina University

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-04

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 19:33

2020-10-03 12:00

Change Research

49.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-04

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 17:45

2020-10-03 00:00

Data for Progress w/3P

51.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-05

2020-10-07
2020-10-08 19:53

2020-10-03 00:00

Ipsos

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-09-29
2020-10-06

2020-10-06
2020-10-08 04:01

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-28 03:48

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 19:25

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 06:17

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 20:59

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 22:47

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 21:58

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 07:47

2020-09-26 00:00

Hart Research

49.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-24
2020-09-27

2020-10-02
2020-10-02 22:55

2020-09-25 12:00

ALG Research

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-22
2020-09-28

2020-09-30
2020-10-01 18:06

2020-09-25 00:00

Redfield and Wilton w/4P

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-26

2020-10-02
2020-10-02 22:40

2020-09-24 00:00

YouGov

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-22
2020-09-25

2020-09-27
2020-09-27 18:32

2020-09-22 00:00

UMass Lowell [2]

48.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-18
2020-09-25

2020-09-29
2020-09-29 20:58

2020-09-22 00:00

UMass Lowell w/4P [2]

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-09-18
2020-09-25

2020-09-29
2020-09-29 20:56

2020-09-20 12:00

Meredith College w/5P

45.7%

45.4%

Biden
by 0.3%

2020-09-18
2020-09-22

2020-09-28
2020-09-28 16:39

2020-09-19 12:00

Change Research

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-18
2020-09-20

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 17:01

2020-09-19 00:00

Civitas Total w/5P [2]

44.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-20

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 19:18

2020-09-19 00:00

Civitas Definitely w/5P [2]

41.0%

42.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-20

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 19:07

2020-09-17 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

50.8%

49.2%

Biden
by 1.6%

2020-09-16
2020-09-18

2020-09-20
2020-09-21 02:34

2020-09-17 12:00

Emerson [2]

50.1%

48.5%

Biden
by 1.6%

2020-09-16
2020-09-18

2020-09-20
2020-09-21 02:31

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

54.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 03:55

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 21:53

2020-09-14 00:00

Ipsos

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-09-11
2020-09-16

2020-09-22
2020-09-22 20:13

2020-09-14 00:00

Siena w/4P

45.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-11
2020-09-16

2020-09-18
2020-09-18 23:00

2020-09-14 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-12
2020-09-15

2020-09-18
2020-09-18 18:23

2020-09-13 00:00

Suffolk [2]

47.4%

43.2%

Biden
by 4.2%

2020-09-11
2020-09-14

2020-09-17
2020-09-17 17:03

2020-09-13 00:00

Suffolk w/5P [2]

46.2%

42.8%

Biden
by 3.4%

2020-09-11
2020-09-14

2020-09-17
2020-09-17 16:58

2020-09-12 00:00

SurveyUSA

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-09-10
2020-09-13

2020-09-14
2020-09-15 00:42

2020-09-11 12:00

CNN/SSRS LV w/5P [2]

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-09
2020-09-13

2020-09-15
2020-09-15 17:33

2020-09-11 12:00

CNN/SSRS RV w/5P [2]

49.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-09
2020-09-13

2020-09-15
2020-09-15 16:57

2020-09-10 12:00

Trafalgar w/5P

46.1%

47.8%

Trump
by 1.7%

2020-09-09
2020-09-11

2020-09-14
2020-09-15 00:24

2020-09-08 00:00

Rassmussen w/Lean [2]

48.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-07
2020-09-08

2020-09-11
2020-09-11 17:50

2020-09-08 00:00

Rassmussen [2]

46.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-07
2020-09-08

2020-09-11
2020-09-11 17:46

2020-09-06 00:00

KFF/Cook Total [2]

45.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-13

2020-09-17
2020-09-17 16:27

2020-09-06 00:00

KFF/Cook Definitely [2]

39.0%

37.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-13

2020-09-17
2020-09-17 16:25

2020-09-05 12:00

Change Research

49.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-04
2020-09-06

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 16:27

2020-09-03 00:00

Benenson

48.0%

48.0%

TIED

2020-08-28
2020-09-08

2020-09-10
2020-09-10 16:18

2020-09-03 00:00

Morning Consult

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-07

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 17:21

2020-09-01 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

43.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-08-30
2020-09-03

2020-09-08
2020-09-08 20:32

2020-08-31 00:00

Monmouth Low Turnout [3]

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-01

2020-09-03
2020-09-03 21:22

2020-08-31 00:00

Monmouth High Turnout [3]

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-01

2020-09-03
2020-09-03 21:20

2020-08-31 00:00

Monmouth RV w/5P [3]

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-01

2020-09-03
2020-09-03 21:16

2020-08-31 00:00

Fox News RV w/5P [2]

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-01

2020-09-02
2020-09-02 23:04

2020-08-31 00:00

Fox News LV w/5P [2]

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-01

2020-09-02
2020-09-02 23:01

2020-08-30 00:00

East Carolina University

46.6%

48.7%

Trump
by 2.1%

2020-08-29
2020-08-30

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 20:04

2020-08-26 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-30

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 16:49

2020-08-22 12:00

Change Research

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-23

2020-08-26
2020-08-26 15:56

2020-08-19 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-08-14
2020-08-23

2020-08-24
2020-08-24 21:24

2020-08-17 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

44.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-08-16
2020-08-17

2020-08-21
2020-08-21 23:25

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

48.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 03:52

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-26 17:33

2020-08-13 00:00

East Carolina University

46.5%

46.9%

Trump
by 0.4%

2020-08-12
2020-08-13

2020-08-16
2020-08-16 21:15

2020-08-12 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-08-07
2020-08-16

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 16:48

2020-08-09 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

49.4%

50.6%

Trump
by 1.2%

2020-08-08
2020-08-10

2020-08-11
2020-08-12 02:59

2020-08-09 12:00

Emerson [2]

46.1%

48.3%

Trump
by 2.2%

2020-08-08
2020-08-10

2020-08-11
2020-08-12 02:57

2020-08-08 12:00

Civitas Total w/5P [2]

45.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-08-06
2020-08-10

2020-08-13
2020-08-13 16:33

2020-08-08 12:00

Civitas Definitely w/5P [2]

37.0%

40.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-08-06
2020-08-10

2020-08-13
2020-08-13 16:28

2020-08-08 12:00

Change Research

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-08-07
2020-08-09

2020-08-12
2020-08-12 18:33

2020-08-07 00:00

Rassmussen w/Lean [2]

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-08-06
2020-08-07

2020-08-10
2020-08-11 07:26

2020-08-07 00:00

Rassmussen [2]

46.0%

46.0%

TIED

2020-08-06
2020-08-07

2020-08-10
2020-08-11 07:25

2020-07-31 00:00

PPP

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-07-30
2020-07-31

2020-08-10
2020-08-11 07:21

2020-07-30 00:00

YouGov

48.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-07-28
2020-07-31

2020-08-02
2020-08-02 18:05

2020-07-29 00:00

Data for Progress [2]

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-07-24
2020-08-02

2020-08-06
2020-08-06 23:07

2020-07-29 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P [2]

46.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-07-24
2020-08-02

2020-08-06
2020-08-06 23:05

2020-07-27 12:00

HIT Strategies

47.0%

37.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-07-23
2020-07-31

2020-08-10
2020-08-11 07:16

2020-07-25 12:00

Change Research

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-07-24
2020-07-26

2020-07-29
2020-07-29 18:29

2020-07-24 00:00

PPP

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-07-23
2020-07-24

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 19:24

2020-07-23 12:00

Cardinal Point

46.8%

48.4%

Trump
by 1.6%

2020-07-22
2020-07-24

2020-07-30
2020-07-31 06:56

2020-07-22 12:00

Zogby w/4P

44.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-07-21
2020-07-23

2020-08-05
2020-08-05 17:33

2020-07-22 00:00

Morning Consult

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-07-17
2020-07-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 07:04

2020-07-20 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

43.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-07-19
2020-07-21

2020-07-30
2020-07-31 05:33

2020-07-18 12:00

Marist

51.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-07-14
2020-07-22

2020-07-27
2020-07-27 14:54

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

49.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 03:49

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 07:03

2020-07-14 12:00

Spry

45.5%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.4%

2020-07-12
2020-07-16

2020-07-22
2020-07-23 19:32

2020-07-14 12:00

Cardinal Point

47.7%

48.6%

Trump
by 0.9%

2020-07-13
2020-07-15

2020-07-20
2020-07-20 18:25

2020-07-11 12:00

Change Research

47.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-07-10
2020-07-12

2020-07-15
2020-07-15 17:41

2020-07-08 00:00

PPP

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-07-07
2020-07-08

2020-07-09
2020-07-09 18:10

2020-06-27 12:00

Change Research

51.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-06-26
2020-06-28

2020-07-01
2020-07-01 18:20

2020-06-24 00:00

East Carolina University

45.1%

43.8%

Biden
by 1.3%

2020-06-22
2020-06-25

2020-06-30
2020-06-30 22:53

2020-06-23 00:00

PPP

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-06-22
2020-06-23

2020-06-24
2020-06-24 19:01

2020-06-22 00:00

Fox News

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-06-20
2020-06-23

2020-06-25
2020-06-25 22:33

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

49.0%

49.0%

TIED

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 03:47

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 19:10

2020-06-17 12:00

Gravis

43.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-06-17
2020-06-17

2020-06-19
2020-06-20 20:39

2020-06-16 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

46.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-06-14
2020-06-17

2020-06-25
2020-06-25 16:10

2020-06-13 12:00

Siena

49.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-18

2020-06-25
2020-06-25 15:49

2020-06-13 12:00

Change Research

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-06-12
2020-06-14

2020-06-17
2020-06-18 04:13

2020-06-03 00:00

PPP

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-06-02
2020-06-03

2020-06-04
2020-06-05 04:37

2020-05-30 12:00

Change Research

46.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-05-29
2020-05-31

2020-06-03
2020-06-03 18:25

2020-05-27 12:00

Civitas Total [2]

44.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-05-26
2020-05-28

2020-06-03
2020-06-03 18:58

2020-05-27 12:00

Civitas Definitely [2]

36.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-05-26
2020-05-28

2020-06-03
2020-06-03 18:56

2020-05-22 00:00

Morning Consult

46.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-05-17
2020-05-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-29 18:06

2020-05-17 00:00

Neighborhood Research

42.0%

42.0%

TIED

2020-05-12
2020-05-21

2020-05-22
2020-05-22 19:14

2020-05-12 12:00

Redfield & Wilton

45.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-05-10
2020-05-14

2020-05-21
2020-05-21 23:49

2020-05-11 12:00

MSI w/Lean [3]

46.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-05-09
2020-05-13

2020-05-26
2020-05-27 03:23

2020-05-11 12:00

MSI w/Probably [3]

45.0%

45.0%

TIED

2020-05-09
2020-05-13

2020-05-26
2020-05-27 03:21

2020-05-11 12:00

MSI Definitely [3]

41.0%

41.0%

TIED

2020-05-09
2020-05-13

2020-05-26
2020-05-27 03:15

2020-05-08 12:00

East Carolina University

43.2%

46.1%

Trump
by 2.9%

2020-05-07
2020-05-09

2020-05-15
2020-05-15 16:29

2020-05-03 12:00

Civiqs

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-05-02
2020-05-04

2020-05-05
2020-05-05 17:43

2020-04-28 00:00

Meredith

47.4%

40.4%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-04-27
2020-04-28

2020-05-01
2020-05-01 16:06

2020-04-25 00:00

SurveyUSA

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-04-23
2020-04-26

2020-04-28
2020-04-29 16:21

2020-04-21 00:00

PPP

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-04-20
2020-04-21

2020-04-23
2020-04-23 19:42

2020-04-16 00:00

Garin-Hart-Yang

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-04-13
2020-04-18

2020-04-29
2020-04-29 19:49

2020-04-15 00:00

GBAO w/Lean [2]

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-04-13
2020-04-16

2020-07-10
2020-07-11 00:40

2020-04-15 00:00

GBAO [2]

45.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-04-13
2020-04-16

2020-07-10
2020-07-10 23:58

2020-04-15 00:00

PPP

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-04-14
2020-04-15

2020-04-16
2020-04-16 19:37

2020-04-06 12:00

Civitas Total [2]

42.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-04-05
2020-04-07

2020-04-15
2020-04-15 16:25

2020-04-06 12:00

Civitas Definitely [2]

39.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-04-05
2020-04-07

2020-04-15
2020-04-15 16:21

2020-02-28 00:00

East Carolina University

48.1%

45.5%

Biden
by 2.6%

2020-02-27
2020-02-28

2020-03-01
2020-03-01 18:31

2020-02-25 12:00

Marist

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-02-23
2020-02-27

2020-03-01
2020-03-01 17:56

2020-02-17 12:00

Climate Nexus

46.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-02-15
2020-02-19

2020-03-02
2020-03-03 02:00

2020-02-15 00:00

SurveyUSA

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-02-13
2020-02-16

2020-02-19
2020-02-19 22:56

2019-11-12 00:00

Fox News

45.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2019-11-10
2019-11-13

2019-11-14
2019-11-14 23:31

2019-11-03 12:00

Civiqs

45.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2019-11-03
2019-11-03

2019-11-05
2019-11-06 02:18

2019-10-20 00:00

NYT/Sienna LV [2]

46.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2019-10-13
2019-10-26

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 20:39

2019-10-20 00:00

NYT/Sienna RV [2]

46.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2019-10-13
2019-10-26

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 20:37

2019-10-06 00:00

East Carolina University

49.7%

46.4%

Biden
by 3.3%

2019-10-02
2019-10-09

2019-10-14
2019-10-14 20:35

2019-10-05 12:00

PPP

51.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2019-10-04
2019-10-06

2019-10-09
2019-10-09 20:02

2019-10-03 12:00

Meredith

34.6%

38.4%

Trump
by 3.8%

2019-09-29
2019-10-07

2019-10-14
2019-10-14 18:06

2019-08-03 12:00

SurveyUSA

49.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2019-08-01
2019-08-05

2019-08-06
2019-08-08 15:56

2019-08-03 00:00

Civitas Definitely [2]

33.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2019-08-01
2019-08-04

2019-08-14
2020-04-15 16:34

2019-08-03 00:00

Civitas Total [2]

44.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2019-08-01
2019-08-04

2019-08-14
2019-08-14 16:34

2019-07-30 12:00

AARP

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2019-07-29
2019-07-31

2019-08-15
2019-09-17 08:27

2019-06-18 00:00

PPP

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2019-06-17
2019-06-18

2019-06-20
2019-06-20 23:23

2019-06-02 00:00

Emerson

55.7%

44.3%

Biden
by 11.4%

2019-05-31
2019-06-03

2019-06-04
2019-06-04 18:11

2019-05-29 00:00

Spry

41.1%

51.8%

Trump
by 10.7%

2019-05-25
2019-06-01

2019-06-06
2019-06-08 20:20

2019-03-22 00:00

Trump Internal (NBC)

51.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2019-03-15
2019-03-28

2019-06-16
2019-06-16 18:11

2019-02-12 12:00

Civitas

39.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2019-02-11
2019-02-13

2019-02-19
2019-03-06 07:41

2019-01-06 00:00

PPP

49.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2019-01-04
2019-01-07

2019-01-09
2019-03-04 06:46

2018-01-23 12:00

Meredith

45.9%

45.2%

Biden
by 0.7%

2018-01-21
2018-01-25

2018-01-26
2019-03-04 04:28

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

46.2%

49.8%

REP
by 3.7%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 04:10

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

48.4%

50.4%

REP
by 2.0%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:03

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

49.7%

49.4%

DEM
by 0.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:36

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

43.6%

56.0%

REP
by 12.4%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:58

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

43.2%

56.0%

REP
by 12.8%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:38

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

44.0%

48.7%

REP
by 4.7%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 17:30

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

42.7%

43.4%

REP
by 0.8%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:35

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

41.7%

58.0%

REP
by 16.3%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:32

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

37.9%

61.9%

REP
by 24.0%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:45

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

47.2%

49.3%

REP
by 2.1%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:01

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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