| Middate/Time | Pollster | Biden | Trump | Margin | Start/End | Released/Entered |
|---|
2020-10-31 12:00 | Change Research w/3P | 45.0% | 50.0% | Trump
by 5.0% | 2020-10-29
2020-11-02 | 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 08:37 |
2020-10-27 00:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [28] | 46.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 6.0% | 2020-10-20
2020-11-02 | 2020-11-03
2020-11-03 17:25 |
2020-10-27 00:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [28] | 46.0% | 51.0% | Trump
by 5.0% | 2020-10-20
2020-11-02 | 2020-11-03
2020-11-03 17:25 |
2020-10-27 00:00 | PPP | 47.0% | 49.0% | Trump
by 2.0% | 2020-10-26
2020-10-27 | 2020-10-27
2020-10-27 21:06 |
2020-10-26 00:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [28] | 46.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 6.0% | 2020-10-19
2020-11-01 | 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 14:08 |
2020-10-26 00:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [28] | 46.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 6.0% | 2020-10-19
2020-11-01 | 2020-11-02
2020-11-03 14:08 |
2020-10-24 12:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [28] | 46.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 6.0% | 2020-10-17
2020-10-31 | 2020-11-01
2020-11-03 14:08 |
2020-10-24 12:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [28] | 46.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 6.0% | 2020-10-17
2020-10-31 | 2020-11-01
2020-11-03 14:08 |
2020-10-23 12:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [28] | 46.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 6.0% | 2020-10-16
2020-10-30 | 2020-10-31
2020-10-31 22:15 |
2020-10-23 12:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [28] | 46.0% | 51.0% | Trump
by 5.0% | 2020-10-16
2020-10-30 | 2020-10-31
2020-10-31 22:15 |
2020-10-22 12:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [28] | 46.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 6.0% | 2020-10-15
2020-10-29 | 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 22:15 |
2020-10-22 12:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [28] | 46.0% | 51.0% | Trump
by 5.0% | 2020-10-15
2020-10-29 | 2020-10-30
2020-10-31 22:15 |
2020-10-22 00:00 | MSU Billings w/3P | 45.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 7.0% | 2020-10-19
2020-10-24 | 2020-10-28
2020-10-28 22:06 |
2020-10-19 12:00 | Siena w/3P | 43.0% | 49.0% | Trump
by 6.0% | 2020-10-18
2020-10-20 | 2020-10-23
2020-10-23 17:24 |
2020-10-18 00:00 | Strategies 360 w/Lean w/3P [2] | 43.0% | 51.0% | Trump
by 8.0% | 2020-10-15
2020-10-20 | 2020-10-22
2020-10-22 18:33 |
2020-10-18 00:00 | Strategies 360 w/3P [2] | 42.0% | 49.0% | Trump
by 7.0% | 2020-10-15
2020-10-20 | 2020-10-22
2020-10-22 18:31 |
| Middate/Time | Pollster | Biden | Trump | Margin | Start/End | Released/Entered |
|---|
2020-10-17 00:00 | RMG w/Strong D Turnout w/3P [3] | 48.0% | 48.0% | TIED | 2020-10-15
2020-10-18 | 2020-10-24
2020-10-24 22:43 |
2020-10-17 00:00 | RMG w/Strong R Turnout w/3P [3] | 44.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 8.0% | 2020-10-15
2020-10-18 | 2020-10-24
2020-10-24 22:41 |
2020-10-17 00:00 | RMG w/3P [3] | 46.0% | 50.0% | Trump
by 4.0% | 2020-10-15
2020-10-18 | 2020-10-24
2020-10-24 22:38 |
2020-10-14 12:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 48.0% | 50.0% | Trump
by 2.0% | 2020-09-30
2020-10-28 | 2020-10-29
2020-10-31 22:15 |
2020-10-14 12:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 48.0% | 49.0% | Trump
by 1.0% | 2020-09-30
2020-10-28 | 2020-10-29
2020-10-31 22:15 |
2020-10-13 12:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 47.0% | 51.0% | Trump
by 4.0% | 2020-09-29
2020-10-27 | 2020-10-28
2020-10-28 20:31 |
2020-10-13 12:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 47.0% | 50.0% | Trump
by 3.0% | 2020-09-29
2020-10-27 | 2020-10-28
2020-10-28 20:31 |
2020-10-11 12:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 45.0% | 53.0% | Trump
by 8.0% | 2020-09-27
2020-10-25 | 2020-10-26
2020-10-28 20:31 |
2020-10-11 12:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 46.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 6.0% | 2020-09-27
2020-10-25 | 2020-10-26
2020-10-28 20:31 |
2020-10-10 12:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 46.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 6.0% | 2020-09-26
2020-10-24 | 2020-10-25
2020-10-28 20:31 |
2020-10-10 12:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 46.0% | 51.0% | Trump
by 5.0% | 2020-09-26
2020-10-24 | 2020-10-25
2020-10-28 20:31 |
2020-10-10 00:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 46.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 6.0% | 2020-09-26
2020-10-23 | 2020-10-24
2020-10-28 20:31 |
2020-10-10 00:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 45.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 7.0% | 2020-09-26
2020-10-23 | 2020-10-24
2020-10-28 20:31 |
2020-10-10 00:00 | PPP | 46.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 6.0% | 2020-10-09
2020-10-10 | 2020-10-12
2020-10-12 17:54 |
2020-10-09 00:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 45.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 7.0% | 2020-09-25
2020-10-22 | 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-09 00:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 45.0% | 53.0% | Trump
by 8.0% | 2020-09-25
2020-10-22 | 2020-10-23
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-08 00:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 45.0% | 53.0% | Trump
by 8.0% | 2020-09-24
2020-10-21 | 2020-10-22
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-08 00:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 45.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 7.0% | 2020-09-24
2020-10-21 | 2020-10-22
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-07 00:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 46.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 6.0% | 2020-09-23
2020-10-20 | 2020-10-21
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-07 00:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 45.0% | 53.0% | Trump
by 8.0% | 2020-09-23
2020-10-20 | 2020-10-21
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-06 12:00 | Emerson w/Lean [2] | 43.6% | 56.4% | Trump
by 12.8% | 2020-10-05
2020-10-07 | 2020-10-07
2020-10-09 15:33 |
2020-10-06 12:00 | Emerson [2] | 43.0% | 56.3% | Trump
by 13.3% | 2020-10-05
2020-10-07 | 2020-10-07
2020-10-09 15:31 |
2020-10-05 12:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 45.0% | 53.0% | Trump
by 8.0% | 2020-09-21
2020-10-19 | 2020-10-20
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-05 12:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 45.0% | 53.0% | Trump
by 8.0% | 2020-09-21
2020-10-19 | 2020-10-20
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-05 00:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 45.0% | 53.0% | Trump
by 8.0% | 2020-09-21
2020-10-18 | 2020-10-19
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-05 00:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 45.0% | 53.0% | Trump
by 8.0% | 2020-09-21
2020-10-18 | 2020-10-19
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-04 00:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 44.0% | 54.0% | Trump
by 10.0% | 2020-09-20
2020-10-17 | 2020-10-18
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-04 00:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 44.0% | 54.0% | Trump
by 10.0% | 2020-09-20
2020-10-17 | 2020-10-18
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-03 00:00 | Data for Progress w/3P | 43.0% | 49.0% | Trump
by 6.0% | 2020-09-30
2020-10-05 | 2020-10-07
2020-10-08 18:23 |
2020-10-02 12:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 44.0% | 53.0% | Trump
by 9.0% | 2020-09-18
2020-10-16 | 2020-10-17
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-02 12:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 44.0% | 54.0% | Trump
by 10.0% | 2020-09-18
2020-10-16 | 2020-10-17
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-02 00:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 44.0% | 53.0% | Trump
by 9.0% | 2020-09-18
2020-10-15 | 2020-10-16
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-02 00:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 44.0% | 54.0% | Trump
by 10.0% | 2020-09-18
2020-10-15 | 2020-10-16
2020-10-24 18:27 |
2020-10-01 00:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 44.0% | 54.0% | Trump
by 10.0% | 2020-09-17
2020-10-14 | 2020-10-15
2020-10-23 17:44 |
2020-10-01 00:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 44.0% | 54.0% | Trump
by 10.0% | 2020-09-17
2020-10-14 | 2020-10-15
2020-10-23 04:37 |
2020-09-29 12:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 41.0% | 57.0% | Trump
by 16.0% | 2020-09-15
2020-10-13 | 2020-10-14
2020-10-22 19:51 |
2020-09-29 12:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 41.0% | 57.0% | Trump
by 16.0% | 2020-09-15
2020-10-13 | 2020-10-14
2020-10-21 21:28 |
2020-09-29 00:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [56] | 41.0% | 57.0% | Trump
by 16.0% | 2020-09-15
2020-10-12 | 2020-10-13
2020-10-18 19:51 |
2020-09-29 00:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [56] | 41.0% | 56.0% | Trump
by 15.0% | 2020-09-15
2020-10-12 | 2020-10-13
2020-10-18 07:01 |
2020-09-23 12:00 | MSU Bozeman | 44.0% | 51.0% | Trump
by 7.0% | 2020-09-14
2020-10-02 | 2020-10-14
2020-10-14 21:27 |
2020-09-16 00:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [2] | 39.0% | 58.0% | Trump
by 19.0% | 2020-09-01
2020-09-30 | 2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:30 |
2020-09-16 00:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [2] | 41.0% | 57.0% | Trump
by 16.0% | 2020-09-01
2020-09-30 | 2020-10-02
2020-10-03 21:56 |
2020-09-15 12:00 | Siena w/4P | 42.0% | 49.0% | Trump
by 7.0% | 2020-09-14
2020-09-16 | 2020-09-20
2020-09-20 18:17 |
2020-09-02 12:00 | Fabrizio Ward Hart | 43.0% | 50.0% | Trump
by 7.0% | 2020-08-30
2020-09-05 | 2020-09-10
2020-09-10 15:52 |
2020-08-25 00:00 | Expedition Strategies | 44.0% | 48.0% | Trump
by 4.0% | 2020-08-22
2020-08-27 | 2020-09-01
2020-09-01 17:21 |
2020-08-16 12:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [2] | 46.0% | 52.0% | Trump
by 6.0% | 2020-08-01
2020-08-31 | 2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:27 |
2020-08-16 12:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [2] | 45.0% | 53.0% | Trump
by 8.0% | 2020-08-01
2020-08-31 | 2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:25 |
2020-08-01 12:00 | Emerson w/Lean [2] | 45.5% | 54.5% | Trump
by 9.0% | 2020-07-31
2020-08-02 | 2020-08-03
2020-08-03 17:00 |
2020-08-01 12:00 | Emerson [2] | 42.1% | 53.3% | Trump
by 11.2% | 2020-07-31
2020-08-02 | 2020-08-03
2020-08-03 16:57 |
2020-07-24 00:00 | PPP | 45.0% | 50.0% | Trump
by 5.0% | 2020-07-23
2020-07-24 | 2020-07-28
2020-07-28 19:21 |
2020-07-16 12:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [2] | 44.0% | 53.0% | Trump
by 9.0% | 2020-07-01
2020-07-31 | 2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:22 |
2020-07-16 12:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [2] | 43.0% | 53.0% | Trump
by 10.0% | 2020-07-01
2020-07-31 | 2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:21 |
2020-07-14 00:00 | Spry | 41.9% | 51.7% | Trump
by 9.8% | 2020-07-11
2020-07-16 | 2020-07-22
2020-07-23 19:27 |
2020-07-12 12:00 | Civiqs | 45.0% | 49.0% | Trump
by 4.0% | 2020-07-11
2020-07-13 | 2020-07-13
2020-07-14 23:19 |
2020-07-10 00:00 | PPP | 42.0% | 51.0% | Trump
by 9.0% | 2020-07-09
2020-07-10 | 2020-07-13
2020-07-13 16:04 |
2020-06-22 00:00 | Big Sky | 37.9% | 52.3% | Trump
by 14.4% | 2020-06-17
2020-06-26 | 2020-07-01
2020-07-02 03:31 |
2020-06-19 12:00 | SurveyMonkey LV [2] | 41.0% | 57.0% | Trump
by 16.0% | 2020-06-08
2020-06-30 | 2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:18 |
2020-06-19 12:00 | SurveyMonkey RV [2] | 39.0% | 59.0% | Trump
by 20.0% | 2020-06-08
2020-06-30 | 2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:17 |
2020-04-19 00:00 | MSU Bozeman | 39.7% | 45.3% | Trump
by 5.6% | 2020-04-10
2020-04-27 | 2020-05-05
2020-05-05 17:40 |
2020-04-18 00:00 | OurProgress | 42.0% | 51.0% | Trump
by 9.0% | 2020-04-14
2020-04-21 | 2020-04-29
2020-04-29 19:27 |
2020-02-17 12:00 | Big Sky | 33.9% | 56.2% | Trump
by 22.3% | 2020-02-12
2020-02-22 | 2020-02-26
2020-02-27 20:28 |
2019-09-30 00:00 | Big Sky | 46.5% | 53.5% | Trump
by 7.0% | 2019-09-26
2019-10-03 | 2019-10-08
2019-10-08 17:30 |
2016-11-08 12:00 | Election2016 | 35.8% | 56.2% | REP
by 20.4% | 2016-11-08
2016-11-08 | 2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:27 |
2012-11-06 12:00 | Election2012 | 41.7% | 55.4% | REP
by 13.7% | 2012-11-06
2012-11-06 | 2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:41 |
2008-11-04 12:00 | Election2008 | 47.3% | 49.5% | REP
by 2.3% | 2008-11-04
2008-11-04 | 2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:16 |
2004-11-02 12:00 | Election2004 | 38.6% | 59.1% | REP
by 20.5% | 2004-11-02
2004-11-02 | 2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:29 |
2000-11-07 12:00 | Election2000 | 33.4% | 58.4% | REP
by 25.1% | 2000-11-07
2000-11-07 | 2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:00 |
1996-11-06 12:00 | Election1996 | 41.2% | 44.1% | REP
by 2.9% | 1996-11-06
1996-11-06 | 1996-11-06
2014-02-16 15:41 |
1992-11-03 12:00 | Election1992 | 37.6% | 35.1% | DEM
by 2.5% | 1992-11-03
1992-11-03 | 1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:33 |
1988-11-08 12:00 | Election1988 | 46.2% | 52.1% | REP
by 5.9% | 1988-11-08
1988-11-08 | 1988-11-08
2014-05-17 12:37 |
1984-11-06 12:00 | Election1984 | 38.2% | 60.5% | REP
by 22.3% | 1984-11-06
1984-11-06 | 1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:51 |
1980-11-04 12:00 | Election1980 | 32.4% | 56.8% | REP
by 24.4% | 1980-11-04
1980-11-04 | 1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:04 |
The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".