2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Montana [3 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-19 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-10-24 22:43 UTC

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-19 12:00

Siena w/3P

43.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-10-18
2020-10-20

2020-10-23
2020-10-23 17:24

2020-10-18 00:00

Strategies 360 w/Lean w/3P [2]

43.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-20

2020-10-22
2020-10-22 18:33

2020-10-18 00:00

Strategies 360 w/3P [2]

42.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-20

2020-10-22
2020-10-22 18:31

2020-10-17 00:00

RMG w/Strong D Turnout w/3P [3]

48.0%

48.0%

TIED

2020-10-15
2020-10-18

2020-10-24
2020-10-24 22:43

2020-10-17 00:00

RMG w/Strong R Turnout w/3P [3]

44.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-18

2020-10-24
2020-10-24 22:41

2020-10-17 00:00

RMG w/3P [3]

46.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-18

2020-10-24
2020-10-24 22:38

2020-10-10 00:00

PPP

46.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-10-09
2020-10-10

2020-10-12
2020-10-12 17:54

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

45.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

45.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

46.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-06 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

43.6%

56.4%

Trump
by 12.8%

2020-10-05
2020-10-07

2020-10-07
2020-10-09 15:33

2020-10-06 12:00

Emerson [2]

43.0%

56.3%

Trump
by 13.3%

2020-10-05
2020-10-07

2020-10-07
2020-10-09 15:31

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

44.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

44.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-03 00:00

Data for Progress w/3P

43.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-05

2020-10-07
2020-10-08 18:23

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

44.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

44.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

44.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

44.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-24 18:27

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

44.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 17:44

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

44.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 04:37

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 19:51

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 21:28

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 19:51

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

41.0%

56.0%

Trump
by 15.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 07:01

2020-09-23 12:00

MSU Bozeman

44.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-14
2020-10-02

2020-10-14
2020-10-14 21:27

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

39.0%

58.0%

Trump
by 19.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:30

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 21:56

2020-09-15 12:00

Siena w/4P

42.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-09-14
2020-09-16

2020-09-20
2020-09-20 18:17

2020-09-02 12:00

Fabrizio Ward Hart

43.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 7.0%

2020-08-30
2020-09-05

2020-09-10
2020-09-10 15:52

2020-08-25 00:00

Expedition Strategies

44.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-08-22
2020-08-27

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 17:21

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

46.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:27

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

45.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:25

2020-08-01 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

45.5%

54.5%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-07-31
2020-08-02

2020-08-03
2020-08-03 17:00

2020-08-01 12:00

Emerson [2]

42.1%

53.3%

Trump
by 11.2%

2020-07-31
2020-08-02

2020-08-03
2020-08-03 16:57

2020-07-24 00:00

PPP

45.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-07-23
2020-07-24

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 19:21

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

44.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:22

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

43.0%

53.0%

Trump
by 10.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:21

2020-07-14 00:00

Spry

41.9%

51.7%

Trump
by 9.8%

2020-07-11
2020-07-16

2020-07-22
2020-07-23 19:27

2020-07-12 12:00

Civiqs

45.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-07-11
2020-07-13

2020-07-13
2020-07-14 23:19

2020-07-10 00:00

PPP

42.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-07-09
2020-07-10

2020-07-13
2020-07-13 16:04

2020-06-22 00:00

Big Sky

37.9%

52.3%

Trump
by 14.4%

2020-06-17
2020-06-26

2020-07-01
2020-07-02 03:31

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

41.0%

57.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:18

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

39.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 20.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 03:17

2020-04-19 00:00

MSU Bozeman

39.7%

45.3%

Trump
by 5.6%

2020-04-10
2020-04-27

2020-05-05
2020-05-05 17:40

2020-04-18 00:00

OurProgress

42.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-04-14
2020-04-21

2020-04-29
2020-04-29 19:27

2020-02-17 12:00

Big Sky

33.9%

56.2%

Trump
by 22.3%

2020-02-12
2020-02-22

2020-02-26
2020-02-27 20:28

2019-09-30 00:00

Big Sky

46.5%

53.5%

Trump
by 7.0%

2019-09-26
2019-10-03

2019-10-08
2019-10-08 17:30

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

35.8%

56.2%

REP
by 20.4%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:27

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

41.7%

55.4%

REP
by 13.7%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:41

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

47.3%

49.5%

REP
by 2.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:16

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

38.6%

59.1%

REP
by 20.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:29

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

33.4%

58.4%

REP
by 25.1%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:00

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

41.2%

44.1%

REP
by 2.9%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 15:41

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

37.6%

35.1%

DEM
by 2.5%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:33

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

46.2%

52.1%

REP
by 5.9%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 12:37

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

38.2%

60.5%

REP
by 22.3%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:51

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

32.4%

56.8%

REP
by 24.4%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:04

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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