2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Minnesota [10 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-11-01 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:45 UTC

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-11-01 00:00

Research Co

52.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-10-31
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-02 22:09

2020-10-30 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P

51.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-10-27
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 05:26

2020-10-30 00:00

PPP

54.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-10-29
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-10-31 17:59

2020-10-28 00:00

Swayable w/4P

52.7%

43.4%

Biden
by 9.3%

2020-10-23
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 04:51

2020-10-28 00:00

Targoz

53.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-10-25
2020-10-30

2020-11-01
2020-11-02 03:45

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

55.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 17:45

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

56.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 17:45

2020-10-27 00:00

Morning Consult

51.7%

42.4%

Biden
by 9.3%

2020-10-22
2020-10-31

2020-11-02
2020-11-02 11:23

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 15:14

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

55.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 15:14

2020-10-25 12:00

SurveyUSA

47.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-23
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-29 00:58

2020-10-25 12:00

Gravis

53.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-10-24
2020-10-26

2020-10-27
2020-10-27 20:37

2020-10-25 00:00

Trafalgar w/Lean w/4P [2]

48.0%

44.8%

Biden
by 3.2%

2020-10-24
2020-10-25

2020-10-28
2020-10-29 17:58

2020-10-25 00:00

Trafalgar w/4P [2]

45.9%

43.7%

Biden
by 2.2%

2020-10-24
2020-10-25

2020-10-28
2020-10-29 17:56

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

54.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 15:14

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 15:14

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-02 13:02

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

55.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-11-02 13:02

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

54.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-02 13:02

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

55.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-11-02 13:02

2020-10-20 00:00

St Cloud

54.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2020-10-10
2020-10-29

2020-11-01
2020-11-01 22:29

2020-10-19 00:00

Civiqs

53.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-21 18:02

2020-10-18 12:00

SurveyUSA

48.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-20

2020-10-22
2020-10-22 18:04

2020-10-16 00:00

Morning Consult

51.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-10-11
2020-10-20

2020-10-22
2020-10-22 15:47

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-02 13:02

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

55.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-11-02 13:02

2020-10-14 00:00

Change Research w/5P

49.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-12
2020-10-15

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 01:45

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 22:01

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 22:01

2020-10-12 00:00

David Bidner Research

52.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-10-10
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 15:05

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

55.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-28 22:01

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-28 22:01

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-28 22:01

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

55.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-28 22:01

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-28 22:01

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

55.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-28 22:01

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

55.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-07 00:00

Morning Consult

50.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 18:33

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

55.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyUSA

47.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-10-01
2020-10-06

2020-10-07
2020-10-09 14:21

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-25 21:33

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 18:16

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 05:30

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

56.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 20:09

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 21:53

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 20:40

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 06:51

2020-09-22 12:00

Mason-Dixon

48.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-21
2020-09-23

2020-09-26
2020-09-27 17:19

2020-09-22 12:00

Suffolk w/5P

46.6%

40.2%

Biden
by 6.4%

2020-09-20
2020-09-24

2020-09-24
2020-09-27 17:15

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

54.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 19:49

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 22:20

2020-09-15 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

51.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-09-12
2020-09-17

2020-09-20
2020-09-20 18:15

2020-09-11 00:00

ABC/WaPo RV [2]

57.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 17.0%

2020-09-08
2020-09-13

2020-09-16
2020-09-16 16:55

2020-09-11 00:00

ABC/WaPo LV [2]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-09-08
2020-09-13

2020-09-16
2020-09-16 16:52

2020-09-10 12:00

YouGov

50.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-09-09
2020-09-11

2020-09-13
2020-09-13 18:14

2020-09-09 12:00

Siena w/4P

50.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-09-08
2020-09-10

2020-09-12
2020-09-12 19:53

2020-09-09 00:00

Morning Consult

48.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-04
2020-09-13

2020-09-15
2020-09-15 15:43

2020-09-06 00:00

SurveyUSA

49.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-09-04
2020-09-07

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 23:43

2020-09-04 00:00

PPP

52.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-03
2020-09-04

2020-09-04
2020-09-04 20:30

2020-09-03 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-07

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 17:07

2020-08-31 12:00

Harper

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-08-30
2020-09-01

2020-09-02
2020-09-03 21:34

2020-08-26 00:00

Morning Consult

50.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-30

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 16:20

2020-08-17 00:00

Trafalgar w/3P

46.9%

46.5%

Biden
by 0.4%

2020-08-15
2020-08-18

2020-08-19
2020-08-20 05:18

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

56.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 19:47

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

55.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 18:20

2020-08-12 00:00

Morning Consult

50.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-08-07
2020-08-16

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 16:19

2020-08-09 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

51.0%

49.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-08-08
2020-08-10

2020-08-11
2020-08-11 16:50

2020-08-09 12:00

Emerson [2]

50.0%

47.4%

Biden
by 2.6%

2020-08-08
2020-08-10

2020-08-11
2020-08-11 16:44

2020-07-31 00:00

David Binder Research

54.0%

36.0%

Biden
by 18.0%

2020-07-30
2020-07-31

2020-08-06
2020-08-06 22:44

2020-07-24 12:00

Trafalgar

49.2%

44.2%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-07-23
2020-07-25

2020-07-27
2020-07-27 20:12

2020-07-23 00:00

PPP

52.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-07-22
2020-07-23

2020-07-31
2020-07-31 23:20

2020-07-22 00:00

Morning Consult

47.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-07-17
2020-07-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 07:02

2020-07-19 12:00

Fox News

51.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2020-07-18
2020-07-20

2020-07-23
2020-07-23 22:19

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 19:42

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 06:36

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

57.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 15.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-05 19:39

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

57.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 18:03

2020-06-19 12:00

Gravis Combined [2]

58.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 16.0%

2020-06-19
2020-06-19

2020-06-20
2020-06-20 20:51

2020-06-19 12:00

Gravis Certain [2]

54.0%

37.0%

Biden
by 17.0%

2020-06-19
2020-06-19

2020-06-20
2020-06-20 20:50

2020-06-01 00:00

Morning Consult

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-05-27
2020-06-05

2020-09-15
2020-09-15 15:37

2020-05-27 12:00

Harper

50.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-05-26
2020-05-28

2020-09-02
2020-09-03 21:31

2020-05-22 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-05-17
2020-05-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-29 18:04

2020-05-19 12:00

Mason-Dixon

49.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-05-18
2020-05-20

2020-05-24
2020-05-24 19:05

2020-05-12 00:00

Morning Consult

55.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 17.0%

2020-05-07
2020-05-16

2020-09-15
2020-09-15 15:35

2019-10-15 12:00

Mason-Dixon

50.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 12.0%

2019-10-14
2019-10-16

2019-10-21
2019-10-22 05:21

2019-03-22 00:00

Trump Internal (NBC)

54.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 14.0%

2019-03-15
2019-03-28

2019-06-16
2019-06-16 18:08

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

46.4%

44.9%

DEM
by 1.5%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:05

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.7%

45.0%

DEM
by 7.7%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:38

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

54.1%

43.8%

DEM
by 10.2%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:07

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

51.1%

47.6%

DEM
by 3.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:23

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

47.9%

45.4%

DEM
by 2.5%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:54

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

51.1%

35.0%

DEM
by 16.1%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 15:38

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.5%

31.9%

DEM
by 11.6%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:27

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

52.9%

45.9%

DEM
by 7.0%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 11:09

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

49.7%

49.5%

DEM
by 0.2%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:45

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

46.5%

42.6%

DEM
by 3.9%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:00

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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