2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Michigan [16 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2019-11-03 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2019-11-06 01:35 UTC

Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2019-11-03 12:00

Civiqs

46.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2019-11-03
2019-11-03

2019-11-05
2019-11-06 01:35

2019-11-02 00:00

Emerson

55.8%

44.2%

Biden
by 11.6%

2019-10-31
2019-11-03

2019-11-03
2019-11-04 02:42

2019-10-19 12:00

NYT/Sienna LV [2]

45.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2019-10-13
2019-10-25

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 20:00

2019-10-19 12:00

NYT/Sienna RV [2]

44.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2019-10-13
2019-10-25

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 19:56

2019-09-25 12:00

Target Insyght

54.0%

35.0%

Biden
by 19.0%

2019-09-24
2019-09-26

2019-10-01
2019-10-01 05:15

2019-09-08 12:00

Firehouse

42.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2019-09-07
2019-09-09

2019-09-12
2019-09-13 05:52

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2019-08-19 12:00

EPIC-MRA

51.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2019-08-17
2019-08-21

2019-08-28
2019-08-28 15:48

2019-07-16 00:00

Climate Nexus

49.0%

36.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2019-07-14
2019-07-17

2019-07-29
2019-07-29 14:50

2019-06-12 12:00

Firehouse

46.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2019-06-11
2019-06-13

2019-06-16
2019-06-19 21:45

2019-06-10 12:00

EPIC-MRA

52.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2019-06-08
2019-06-12

2019-06-14
2019-06-14 19:16

2019-05-29 12:00

Glengariff w/3P [2]

45.2%

38.5%

Biden
by 6.7%

2019-05-28
2019-05-30

2019-06-02
2019-06-05 14:08

2019-05-29 12:00

Glengariff [2]

53.3%

41.4%

Biden
by 11.9%

2019-05-28
2019-05-30

2019-06-02
2019-06-05 14:06

2019-04-29 00:00

WPA Intelligence

45.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2019-04-27
2019-04-30

2019-05-11
2019-05-12 07:45

2019-03-22 00:00

Trump Internal (NBC)

53.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2019-03-15
2019-03-28

2019-06-16
2019-06-16 18:09

2019-03-20 12:00

Firehouse

45.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2019-03-19
2019-03-21

2019-03-23
2019-03-27 02:48

2019-03-09 00:00

Emerson w/3P [2]

51.8%

44.3%

Biden
by 7.5%

2019-03-07
2019-03-10

2019-03-10
2019-03-10 20:36

2019-03-09 00:00

Emerson [2]

53.7%

46.3%

Biden
by 7.4%

2019-03-07
2019-03-10

2019-03-10
2019-03-10 20:34

2019-01-25 12:00

Glengariff

53.3%

40.3%

Biden
by 13.0%

2019-01-24
2019-01-26

2019-01-27
2019-03-05 04:51

2018-04-29 12:00

EPIC-MRA w/Lean [2]

52.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2018-04-28
2018-04-30

2018-05-01
2019-03-04 05:42

2018-04-29 12:00

EPIC-MRA [2]

49.0%

36.0%

Biden
by 13.0%

2018-04-28
2018-04-30

2018-05-01
2019-03-04 05:40

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

47.3%

47.5%

REP
by 0.2%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:01

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

54.2%

44.7%

DEM
by 9.5%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:37

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

57.4%

41.0%

DEM
by 16.5%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:06

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

51.2%

47.8%

DEM
by 3.4%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:21

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

51.3%

46.2%

DEM
by 5.1%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:53

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

51.7%

38.5%

DEM
by 13.2%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 09:35

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.8%

36.4%

DEM
by 7.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:25

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

45.7%

53.6%

REP
by 7.9%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 10:27

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

40.2%

59.2%

REP
by 19.0%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:42

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

42.5%

49.0%

REP
by 6.5%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:58

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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