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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Arizona [11 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-31 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 17:34 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-31 00:00

Change Research

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-29
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 07:55

2020-10-31 00:00

Marist RV [2]

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-29
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 02:52

2020-10-31 00:00

Marist LV [2]

48.0%

48.0%

TIED

2020-10-29
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 02:48

2020-10-31 00:00

AtlasIntel

48.1%

50.4%

Trump
by 2.3%

2020-10-30
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-01 21:59

2020-10-30 12:00

Ipsos w/5P [3]

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-27
2020-11-02

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 03:41

2020-10-30 12:00

Ipsos w/Lean [3]

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-27
2020-11-02

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 03:39

2020-10-30 12:00

Ipsos [3]

49.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-27
2020-11-02

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 03:36

2020-10-30 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

48.0%

45.9%

Biden
by 2.1%

2020-10-29
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-01 21:52

2020-10-30 12:00

Emerson [2]

47.8%

45.8%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-29
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-01 21:51

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-30 00:00

Swayable w/3P

50.6%

45.7%

Biden
by 4.9%

2020-10-27
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 05:36

2020-10-30 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-27
2020-11-01

2020-11-01
2020-11-02 03:28

2020-10-29 12:00

Data Orbital

45.9%

45.3%

Biden
by 0.6%

2020-10-28
2020-10-30

2020-11-02
2020-11-02 17:56

2020-10-28 12:00

Siena w/3P

49.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-26
2020-10-30

2020-11-01
2020-11-01 10:40

2020-10-28 12:00

Rasmussen w/Lean [2]

45.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-27
2020-10-29

2020-10-29
2020-10-29 21:19

2020-10-28 12:00

Rasmussen [2]

45.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-10-27
2020-10-29

2020-10-29
2020-10-29 20:53

2020-10-28 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-26
2020-10-29

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 04:20

2020-10-27 12:00

Gravis

48.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-26
2020-10-28

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 19:16

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

53.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 17:34

2020-10-27 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-20
2020-11-02

2020-11-03
2020-11-03 17:34

2020-10-27 00:00

Morning Consult

48.4%

46.1%

Biden
by 2.3%

2020-10-22
2020-10-31

2020-11-02
2020-11-02 11:11

2020-10-27 00:00

CNN/SSRS RV w/3P [2]

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-23
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-10-31 22:49

2020-10-27 00:00

CNN/SSRS LV w/3P [2]

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-23
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-10-31 22:47

2020-10-27 00:00

Trafalgar w/Lean w/3P [2]

46.4%

48.9%

Trump
by 2.5%

2020-10-25
2020-10-28

2020-10-30
2020-10-31 02:54

2020-10-27 00:00

Trafalgar w/3P [2]

45.2%

47.5%

Trump
by 2.3%

2020-10-25
2020-10-28

2020-10-30
2020-10-31 02:51

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

52.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 14:35

2020-10-26 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-10-19
2020-11-01

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 14:35

2020-10-25 00:00

Swayable w/3P

52.4%

43.8%

Biden
by 8.6%

2020-10-23
2020-10-26

2020-10-28
2020-10-30 20:44

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 14:35

2020-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-03 14:35

2020-10-24 12:00

Ipsos w/5P [2]

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-10-21
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 23:06

2020-10-24 12:00

Ipsos [2]

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-21
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 22:41

2020-10-24 00:00

Justice Collaborative Institute

49.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-22
2020-10-25

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 22:16

2020-10-24 00:00

OHPI w/3P

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-22
2020-10-25

2020-10-27
2020-10-27 20:33

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-10-31 22:25

2020-10-23 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-30

2020-10-31
2020-10-31 22:25

2020-10-23 00:00

Patinkin

52.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-10-21
2020-10-24

2020-10-27
2020-10-28 00:51

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [28]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-10-31 22:25

2020-10-22 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [28]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-29

2020-10-30
2020-10-31 22:25

2020-10-21 12:00

Univision Total [2]

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-25

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 17:51

2020-10-21 12:00

Univision Certain [2]

46.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-17
2020-10-25

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 17:49

2020-10-21 00:00

Susquehanna Total w/Lean w/3P [3]

46.2%

46.6%

Trump
by 0.4%

2020-10-19
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-23 22:39

2020-10-21 00:00

Susquehanna Total w/3P [3]

46.0%

46.0%

TIED

2020-10-19
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-23 22:33

2020-10-21 00:00

Susquehanna Definitely w/3P [3]

42.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-19
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-23 22:33

2020-10-20 00:00

Y2 Analytics

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-15
2020-10-24

2020-10-31
2020-10-31 22:32

2020-10-19 00:00

Rassmussen w/Lean [2]

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-18
2020-10-19

2020-10-21
2020-10-21 16:56

2020-10-19 00:00

Rasmussen [2]

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-18
2020-10-19

2020-10-21
2020-10-21 16:37

2020-10-18 00:00

Ipsos w/5P [2]

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-14
2020-10-21

2020-10-21
2020-10-22 06:46

2020-10-18 00:00

Ipsos [2]

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-14
2020-10-21

2020-10-21
2020-10-22 06:43

2020-10-18 00:00

Change Research

51.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-16
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 14:55

2020-10-17 12:00

Data Orbital

47.1%

41.9%

Biden
by 5.2%

2020-10-16
2020-10-18

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 06:25

2020-10-17 00:00

RMG w/Strong D Turnout [3]

49.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-10-14
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 06:42

2020-10-17 00:00

RMG w/Strong R Turnout [3]

45.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-10-14
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 06:40

2020-10-17 00:00

RMG [3]

47.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-14
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-21 06:36

2020-10-16 00:00

Morning Consult

47.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-10-11
2020-10-20

2020-10-22
2020-10-22 15:18

2020-10-15 00:00

YouGov w/Lean [2]

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-13
2020-10-16

2020-10-18
2020-10-18 19:30

2020-10-15 00:00

YouGov [2]

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-13
2020-10-16

2020-10-18
2020-10-18 19:29

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-10-31 22:25

2020-10-14 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-30
2020-10-28

2020-10-29
2020-10-31 22:25

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 20:58

2020-10-13 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 20:58

2020-10-12 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-10
2020-10-13

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 03:54

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

53.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-28 20:58

2020-10-11 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-27
2020-10-25

2020-10-26
2020-10-28 20:58

2020-10-11 12:00

Monmouth Low Turnout [3]

49.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-09
2020-10-13

2020-10-15
2020-10-15 18:11

2020-10-11 12:00

Monmouth High Turnout [3]

51.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-10-09
2020-10-13

2020-10-15
2020-10-15 18:10

2020-10-11 12:00

Monmouth RV w/3P [3]

50.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-09
2020-10-13

2020-10-15
2020-10-15 18:07

2020-10-11 00:00

Ipsos w/5P [2]

49.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-07
2020-10-14

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 15:33

2020-10-11 00:00

Ipsos [2]

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-07
2020-10-14

2020-10-14
2020-10-15 15:30

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-28 20:58

2020-10-10 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-24

2020-10-25
2020-10-28 20:58

2020-10-10 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-09
2020-10-10

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 03:55

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-28 20:58

2020-10-10 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

53.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-09-26
2020-10-23

2020-10-24
2020-10-28 20:58

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-09 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

53.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-22

2020-10-23
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-08 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

53.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-09-24
2020-10-21

2020-10-22
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-07 12:00

Trafalgar w/3P

43.8%

47.8%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-10-06
2020-10-08

2020-10-09
2020-10-09 18:08

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-07 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-20

2020-10-21
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-07 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-11

2020-10-13
2020-10-13 16:30

2020-10-06 12:00

OHPI [2]

50.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-04
2020-10-08

2020-10-15
2020-10-15 16:43

2020-10-06 12:00

OHPI w/3P [2]

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-04
2020-10-08

2020-10-15
2020-10-15 16:40

2020-10-06 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

49.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-04
2020-10-07

2020-10-09
2020-10-09 19:00

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-05 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-19

2020-10-20
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-05 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-21
2020-10-18

2020-10-19
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-04 12:00

Basswood Total w/3P [2]

47.8%

47.9%

Trump
by 0.1%

2020-10-03
2020-10-05

2020-10-22
2020-10-23 21:34

2020-10-04 12:00

Basswood Definitely w/3P [2]

45.5%

45.5%

TIED

2020-10-03
2020-10-05

2020-10-22
2020-10-23 21:32

2020-10-04 12:00

Data Orbital w/3P

47.7%

43.2%

Biden
by 4.5%

2020-10-03
2020-10-05

2020-10-07
2020-10-09 14:16

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-04 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-20
2020-10-17

2020-10-18
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-03 12:00

Ipsos

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-29
2020-10-07

2020-10-07
2020-10-09 15:26

2020-10-03 12:00

Change Research

51.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-10-02
2020-10-04

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 16:42

2020-10-02 12:00

Patinkin

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-01
2020-10-03

2020-10-27
2020-10-28 00:48

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

54.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-02 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-16

2020-10-17
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-02 12:00

Latino Decisions

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-28
2020-10-06

2020-10-08
2020-10-09 15:58

2020-10-02 12:00

Siena w/3P

49.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-10-01
2020-10-03

2020-10-05
2020-10-06 13:50

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

53.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-02 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-18
2020-10-15

2020-10-16
2020-10-24 22:00

2020-10-02 00:00

HighGround Total [2]

45.8%

44.8%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-28
2020-10-05

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 20:39

2020-10-02 00:00

HighGround Definitely [2]

41.3%

41.3%

TIED

2020-09-28
2020-10-05

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 20:01

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 17:52

2020-10-01 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-17
2020-10-14

2020-10-15
2020-10-23 04:48

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

51.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-22 19:56

2020-09-29 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-13

2020-10-14
2020-10-21 21:35

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [56]

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 20:01

2020-09-29 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [56]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-15
2020-10-12

2020-10-13
2020-10-18 03:35

2020-09-28 12:00

Suffolk w/3P

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-26
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-02 16:53

2020-09-28 00:00

Targoz w/Lean [2]

45.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-02

2020-10-15
2020-10-16 14:54

2020-09-28 00:00

Targoz [2]

43.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-09-23
2020-10-02

2020-10-15
2020-10-16 14:48

2020-09-27 00:00

Strategies 360

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-24
2020-09-29

2020-10-06
2020-10-06 20:55

2020-09-27 00:00

Susquehanna

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-09-25
2020-09-28

2020-09-29
2020-09-29 21:08

2020-09-26 00:00

Data for Progress [2]

50.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-28

2020-10-01
2020-10-01 15:54

2020-09-26 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P [2]

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-28

2020-10-01
2020-10-01 15:52

2020-09-25 00:00

Redfield and Wilton w/4P

47.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-23
2020-09-26

2020-10-02
2020-10-02 22:09

2020-09-19 12:00

Change Research

49.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-18
2020-09-20

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 16:53

2020-09-19 00:00

Data for Progress

45.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-15
2020-09-22

2020-09-24
2020-09-27 16:51

2020-09-18 12:00

Hart Research

53.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 11.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-19

2020-09-24
2020-09-27 15:58

2020-09-18 00:00

ABC/WaPo RV [2]

49.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-15
2020-09-20

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 16:31

2020-09-18 00:00

ABC/WaPo LV [2]

48.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-09-15
2020-09-20

2020-09-23
2020-09-23 16:29

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

52.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 06:54

2020-09-16 00:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

51.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-01
2020-09-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-03 23:19

2020-09-16 00:00

Data Orbital

49.3%

46.6%

Biden
by 2.7%

2020-09-14
2020-09-17

2020-09-24
2020-09-26 22:46

2020-09-14 12:00

Ipsos

47.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-09-11
2020-09-17

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 03:54

2020-09-14 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

47.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-09-12
2020-09-16

2020-09-18
2020-09-18 18:15

2020-09-13 12:00

Monmouth Low Turnout [3]

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-09-11
2020-09-15

2020-09-17
2020-09-17 17:10

2020-09-13 12:00

Monmouth High Turnout [3]

48.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-11
2020-09-15

2020-09-17
2020-09-17 17:08

2020-09-13 12:00

Monmouth RV w/3P [3]

48.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-11
2020-09-15

2020-09-17
2020-09-17 17:06

2020-09-13 00:00

Siena w/3P

49.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-09-10
2020-09-15

2020-09-18
2020-09-18 22:16

2020-09-12 00:00

Patinkin

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-10
2020-09-13

2020-10-27
2020-10-28 00:46

2020-09-11 00:00

Gravis

50.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-10
2020-09-11

2020-09-12
2020-09-12 21:47

2020-09-10 12:00

YouGov

47.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-09
2020-09-11

2020-09-13
2020-09-13 18:11

2020-09-09 12:00

OHPI

52.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-09-08
2020-09-10

2020-09-14
2020-09-14 10:10

2020-09-06 00:00

KFF/Cook Total [2]

45.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-13

2020-09-17
2020-09-17 16:18

2020-09-06 00:00

KFF/Cook Definitely [2]

38.0%

37.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-13

2020-09-17
2020-09-17 16:15

2020-09-05 12:00

Change Research

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-09-04
2020-09-06

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 16:13

2020-09-03 00:00

Benenson

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-08-28
2020-09-08

2020-09-10
2020-09-10 16:41

2020-09-03 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-07

2020-09-09
2020-09-09 16:54

2020-09-02 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

48.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-08-30
2020-09-04

2020-09-08
2020-09-08 20:30

2020-08-31 00:00

Fox News RV w/3P [2]

49.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-01

2020-09-02
2020-09-02 22:55

2020-08-31 00:00

Fox News LV w/3P [2]

49.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-08-29
2020-09-01

2020-09-02
2020-09-02 22:51

2020-08-30 12:00

Basswood Total [4]

48.1%

49.1%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-08-29
2020-08-31

2020-09-24
2020-10-23 20:44

2020-08-30 12:00

Basswood Definitely [4]

45.6%

45.9%

Trump
by 0.3%

2020-08-29
2020-08-31

2020-09-24
2020-10-23 20:42

2020-08-30 12:00

Basswood Total w/4P [4]

46.8%

47.8%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-08-29
2020-08-31

2020-09-24
2020-10-23 20:40

2020-08-30 12:00

Basswood Definitely w/4P [4]

42.8%

44.8%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-08-29
2020-08-31

2020-09-24
2020-10-23 20:36

2020-08-26 00:00

Morning Consult

52.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 10.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-30

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 15:43

2020-08-22 12:00

Change Research

49.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-08-21
2020-08-23

2020-08-26
2020-08-26 15:26

2020-08-17 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

47.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-08-16
2020-08-18

2020-08-21
2020-08-21 23:11

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

47.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 06:52

2020-08-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-08-01
2020-08-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 16:45

2020-08-12 00:00

Morning Consult

45.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-08-07
2020-08-16

2020-09-01
2020-09-01 15:40

2020-08-09 12:00

Emerson w/Lean [2]

53.3%

46.7%

Biden
by 6.6%

2020-08-08
2020-08-10

2020-08-11
2020-08-12 02:51

2020-08-09 12:00

Emerson [2]

49.3%

45.3%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-08-08
2020-08-10

2020-08-11
2020-08-12 02:47

2020-08-08 12:00

Change Research

45.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-08-07
2020-08-09

2020-08-12
2020-08-12 17:43

2020-08-07 00:00

Trafalgar w/3P

44.8%

46.2%

Trump
by 1.4%

2020-08-05
2020-08-08

2020-08-10
2020-08-11 07:35

2020-08-04 00:00

OHPI

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-08-03
2020-08-04

2020-08-10
2020-08-10 14:35

2020-08-03 12:00

OnMessage

48.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2020-08-02
2020-08-04

2020-08-18
2020-08-19 03:17

2020-07-29 00:00

Data for Progress [2]

47.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-07-24
2020-08-02

2020-08-06
2020-08-06 22:51

2020-07-29 00:00

Data for Progress w/4P [2]

45.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-07-24
2020-08-02

2020-08-06
2020-08-06 22:49

2020-07-25 12:00

Change Research

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-07-24
2020-07-26

2020-07-29
2020-07-29 18:23

2020-07-22 00:00

Morning Consult

49.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-07-17
2020-07-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 06:47

2020-07-21 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

46.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-07-19
2020-07-23

2020-07-30
2020-07-31 05:30

2020-07-21 12:00

CNN/SSRS

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-07-18
2020-07-24

2020-07-26
2020-07-26 18:00

2020-07-18 12:00

Marist

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-07-14
2020-07-22

2020-07-26
2020-07-26 17:57

2020-07-18 00:00

PPP

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-07-17
2020-07-18

2020-07-22
2020-07-22 17:33

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

47.0%

51.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 06:47

2020-07-16 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

49.0%

48.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-07-01
2020-07-31

2020-09-23
2020-09-25 02:15

2020-07-14 00:00

Spry

49.4%

44.6%

Biden
by 4.8%

2020-07-11
2020-07-16

2020-07-22
2020-07-23 19:13

2020-07-11 12:00

Change Research

51.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-07-10
2020-07-12

2020-07-15
2020-07-15 17:29

2020-07-09 00:00

YouGov

46.0%

46.0%

TIED

2020-07-07
2020-07-10

2020-07-12
2020-07-12 15:04

2020-07-07 00:00

OHPI

49.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2020-07-06
2020-07-07

2020-07-16
2020-07-16 15:45

2020-06-28 12:00

Data Orbital

45.4%

43.8%

Biden
by 1.6%

2020-06-27
2020-06-29

2020-07-01
2020-07-01 18:29

2020-06-27 12:00

Gravis

45.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-06-27
2020-06-27

2020-07-01
2020-07-02 01:39

2020-06-27 12:00

Change Research

51.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-06-26
2020-06-28

2020-07-01
2020-07-01 17:54

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey LV [2]

46.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-10-02
2020-10-04 06:44

2020-06-19 12:00

SurveyMonkey RV [2]

48.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-30

2020-09-23
2020-09-24 15:20

2020-06-16 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

43.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-06-14
2020-06-17

2020-06-25
2020-06-25 16:06

2020-06-14 12:00

Civiqs

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-06-13
2020-06-15

2020-06-16
2020-06-16 15:38

2020-06-13 12:00

Change Research

45.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-06-12
2020-06-14

2020-06-17
2020-06-18 04:15

2020-06-12 12:00

Siena

48.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-06-08
2020-06-16

2020-06-25
2020-06-25 15:46

2020-06-01 00:00

Fox News

46.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-05-30
2020-06-02

2020-06-03
2020-06-04 02:47

2020-05-30 12:00

Change Research

44.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-05-29
2020-05-31

2020-06-03
2020-06-03 18:17

2020-05-22 00:00

Morning Consult

45.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2020-05-17
2020-05-26

2020-07-28
2020-07-29 17:52

2020-05-20 12:00

HighGround

47.0%

45.3%

Biden
by 1.7%

2020-05-18
2020-05-22

2020-05-26
2020-05-27 03:32

2020-05-12 12:00

Redfield & Wilton

45.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-05-10
2020-05-14

2020-05-21
2020-05-21 23:47

2020-05-10 12:00

OHPI

50.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-05-09
2020-05-11

2020-05-19
2020-05-19 14:00

2020-04-15 00:00

GBAO w/Lean [2]

47.0%

47.0%

TIED

2020-04-13
2020-04-16

2020-07-10
2020-07-10 23:53

2020-04-15 00:00

GBAO [2]

44.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-04-13
2020-04-16

2020-07-10
2020-07-10 23:51

2020-04-08 00:00

OHPI

52.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-04-07
2020-04-08

2020-04-14
2020-04-14 16:30

2020-03-13 00:00

Marist

47.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-03-10
2020-03-15

2020-03-16
2020-03-16 20:00

2020-03-13 00:00

Monmouth

46.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-03-11
2020-03-14

2020-03-16
2020-03-16 15:37

2020-03-09 00:00

Univision w/Lean [2]

50.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2020-03-06
2020-03-11

2020-03-13
2020-03-13 14:50

2020-03-09 00:00

Univision wo/Lean [2]

44.0%

37.0%

Biden
by 7.0%

2020-03-06
2020-03-11

2020-03-13
2020-03-13 14:48

2020-03-04 00:00

OHPI

49.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2020-03-03
2020-03-04

2020-03-13
2020-03-13 14:42

2020-03-03 00:00

PPP

48.0%

47.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-03-02
2020-03-03

2020-03-05
2020-03-05 16:11

2020-02-13 12:00

Climate Nexus

42.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2020-02-11
2020-02-15

2020-03-13
2020-03-14 01:17

2020-01-23 12:00

Fabrizio Lee

45.0%

50.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2020-01-22
2020-01-24

2020-02-28
2020-03-09 15:07

2020-01-03 12:00

PPP

46.0%

46.0%

TIED

2020-01-02
2020-01-04

2020-01-08
2020-01-08 18:50

2019-12-04 00:00

OHPI

44.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2019-12-03
2019-12-04

2019-12-09
2019-12-09 19:46

2019-11-03 12:00

Civiqs

45.0%

45.0%

TIED

2019-11-03
2019-11-03

2019-11-05
2019-11-06 02:00

2019-10-27 00:00

Emerson

50.0%

50.0%

TIED

2019-10-25
2019-10-28

2019-10-29
2019-10-29 17:47

2019-10-18 12:00

NYT/Sienna LV [2]

49.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2019-10-13
2019-10-23

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 18:15

2019-10-18 12:00

NYT/Sienna RV [2]

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2019-10-13
2019-10-23

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 18:15

2019-09-11 00:00

Bendixen Amandi

42.0%

43.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2019-09-09
2019-09-12

2019-09-18
2019-09-18 17:06

2019-08-14 00:00

OHPI

45.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2019-08-13
2019-08-14

2019-08-22
2019-08-22 15:05

2019-07-30 12:00

AARP

50.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2019-07-29
2019-07-31

2019-08-15
2019-09-17 08:15

2019-05-02 00:00

OHPI

49.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 5.0%

2019-05-01
2019-05-02

2019-05-07
2019-05-07 18:12

2019-02-13 00:00

OHPI

46.0%

46.0%

TIED

2019-02-12
2019-02-13

2019-02-19
2019-03-06 16:03

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

45.1%

48.7%

REP
by 3.5%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-18 04:43

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

44.6%

53.7%

REP
by 9.1%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-21 23:07

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

45.1%

53.6%

REP
by 8.5%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:38

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

44.4%

54.9%

REP
by 10.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-13 23:27

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

44.7%

51.0%

REP
by 6.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-05 07:10

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

46.5%

44.3%

DEM
by 2.2%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:13

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

36.5%

38.5%

REP
by 2.0%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:06

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

38.7%

60.0%

REP
by 21.2%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 03:08

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

32.5%

66.4%

REP
by 33.9%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 06:15

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

28.2%

60.6%

REP
by 32.4%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:10

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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