2020 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump

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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Maine (CD2) [1 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-31 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 09:50 UTC

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-10-31 12:00	Change Research [2]	50.0%	50.0%	TIED	2020-10-29 2020-11-02	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 09:50
2020-10-31 12:00	Change Research w/4P [2]	47.0%	46.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2020-10-29 2020-11-02	2020-11-02 2020-11-03 09:47
2020-10-30 12:00	Emerson	49.8%	46.8%	Biden by 3.0%	2020-10-29 2020-10-31	2020-11-01 2020-11-01 22:46
2020-10-25 12:00	SurveyUSA [2]	51.0%	49.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2020-10-23 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-29 19:44
2020-10-25 12:00	SurveyUSA w/5P [2]	48.0%	45.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2020-10-23 2020-10-27	2020-10-28 2020-10-29 19:41
2020-10-23 12:00	Colby College	46.0%	42.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2020-10-21 2020-10-25	2020-10-28 2020-10-28 17:24
2020-10-04 12:00	Pan Atlantic Research	46.5%	43.0%	Biden by 3.5%	2020-10-02 2020-10-06	2020-10-15 2020-10-15 16:35

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2020-09-30 00:00	Critical Insights LV w/4P [2]	41.0%	49.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-04	2020-10-06 2020-10-07 07:16
2020-09-30 00:00	Critical Insights RV w/4P [2]	40.0%	49.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2020-09-25 2020-10-04	2020-10-06 2020-10-07 06:43
2020-09-20 12:00	Colby College	46.0%	43.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2020-09-17 2020-09-23	2020-09-24 2020-09-27 17:08
2020-09-19 00:00	Suffolk w/5P	47.0%	45.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2020-09-17 2020-09-20	2020-09-21 2020-09-21 20:18
2020-09-14 00:00	Siena	47.0%	45.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2020-09-11 2020-09-16	2020-09-18 2020-09-18 23:06
2020-09-12 12:00	Quinnipiac	53.0%	44.0%	Biden by 9.0%	2020-09-10 2020-09-14	2020-09-16 2020-09-16 19:01
2020-09-02 12:00	Fabrizio Ward Hart	49.0%	45.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2020-08-30 2020-09-05	2020-09-10 2020-09-10 22:32
2020-08-27 00:00	Left of Center	47.5%	49.3%	Trump by 1.8%	2020-08-25 2020-08-28	2020-09-08 2020-09-08 19:15
2020-08-03 12:00	Critical insights	39.0%	38.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2020-07-28 2020-08-09	2020-08-11 2020-08-11 18:25
2020-08-01 12:00	Quinnipiac	44.0%	45.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2020-07-30 2020-08-03	2020-08-06 2020-08-06 23:22
2020-07-18 12:00	Colby College	45.0%	42.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2020-07-16 2020-07-20	2020-07-28 2020-07-28 20:02
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	41.0%	51.3%	REP by 10.3%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-20 02:46
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	52.9%	44.4%	DEM by 8.6%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:34
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	54.6%	43.4%	DEM by 11.3%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-25 06:03
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	52.0%	46.1%	DEM by 5.8%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:14
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	47.4%	45.6%	DEM by 1.9%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 09:46
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	51.2%	29.6%	DEM by 21.5%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 09:12
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	37.6%	28.9%	DEM by 8.7%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:48
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	44.6%	54.6%	REP by 10.1%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 10:14
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	37.5%	62.1%	REP by 24.7%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:53
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	42.7%	46.3%	REP by 3.7%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:52

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

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