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2020 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Maine (CD2) [1 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-31 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 09:50 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

Biden Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-10-31 12:00

Change Research [2]

50.0%

50.0%

TIED

2020-10-29
2020-11-02

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 09:50

2020-10-31 12:00

Change Research w/4P [2]

47.0%

46.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-10-29
2020-11-02

2020-11-02
2020-11-03 09:47

2020-10-30 12:00

Emerson

49.8%

46.8%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-29
2020-10-31

2020-11-01
2020-11-01 22:46

2020-10-25 12:00

SurveyUSA [2]

51.0%

49.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-10-23
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-29 19:44

2020-10-25 12:00

SurveyUSA w/5P [2]

48.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-10-23
2020-10-27

2020-10-28
2020-10-29 19:41

2020-10-23 12:00

Colby College

46.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-10-21
2020-10-25

2020-10-28
2020-10-28 17:24

2020-10-04 12:00

Pan Atlantic Research

46.5%

43.0%

Biden
by 3.5%

2020-10-02
2020-10-06

2020-10-15
2020-10-15 16:35

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBidenTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2020-09-30 00:00

Critical Insights LV w/4P [2]

41.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 8.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-04

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 07:16

2020-09-30 00:00

Critical Insights RV w/4P [2]

40.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2020-09-25
2020-10-04

2020-10-06
2020-10-07 06:43

2020-09-20 12:00

Colby College

46.0%

43.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-23

2020-09-24
2020-09-27 17:08

2020-09-19 00:00

Suffolk w/5P

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-17
2020-09-20

2020-09-21
2020-09-21 20:18

2020-09-14 00:00

Siena

47.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2020-09-11
2020-09-16

2020-09-18
2020-09-18 23:06

2020-09-12 12:00

Quinnipiac

53.0%

44.0%

Biden
by 9.0%

2020-09-10
2020-09-14

2020-09-16
2020-09-16 19:01

2020-09-02 12:00

Fabrizio Ward Hart

49.0%

45.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2020-08-30
2020-09-05

2020-09-10
2020-09-10 22:32

2020-08-27 00:00

Left of Center

47.5%

49.3%

Trump
by 1.8%

2020-08-25
2020-08-28

2020-09-08
2020-09-08 19:15

2020-08-03 12:00

Critical insights

39.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 1.0%

2020-07-28
2020-08-09

2020-08-11
2020-08-11 18:25

2020-08-01 12:00

Quinnipiac

44.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2020-07-30
2020-08-03

2020-08-06
2020-08-06 23:22

2020-07-18 12:00

Colby College

45.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2020-07-16
2020-07-20

2020-07-28
2020-07-28 20:02

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

41.0%

51.3%

REP
by 10.3%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 02:46

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.9%

44.4%

DEM
by 8.6%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:34

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

54.6%

43.4%

DEM
by 11.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-25 06:03

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

52.0%

46.1%

DEM
by 5.8%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:14

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

47.4%

45.6%

DEM
by 1.9%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:46

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

51.2%

29.6%

DEM
by 21.5%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 09:12

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

37.6%

28.9%

DEM
by 8.7%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:48

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

44.6%

54.6%

REP
by 10.1%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 10:14

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

37.5%

62.1%

REP
by 24.7%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 07:53

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

42.7%

46.3%

REP
by 3.7%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:52

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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