2020 Electoral College
O'Rourke vs Trump - National Summary
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2019-10-23 00:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2019-11-04 08:13 UTC
State Breakdown by Category
Click on state names for polling details.
Switch to Column View
Ten most needed polls:
Virginia, Iowa, Florida, Ohio, Colorado,
Pennsylvania, Nevada, Maine (CD2), North Carolina, Minnesota
Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".
Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.
The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.
Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.
Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 15.1 years.
*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.
List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML
Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage
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