2020 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations in Virginia [13 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-30 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:11 UTC

State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to National Summary

 

 

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5.357 polls spanning the last 1.9 weeks.

Biden Trump
54.5% 42.2%
 
Biden up by 12.2%
(Solid Biden)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
100.0% 0.0%
Biden vs Trump Virginia Details

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 1.1 years.

Warren Trump
45.8% 44.4%
 
Warren up by 1.4%
(Weak Warren)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Warren Trump
63.3% 36.7%
Warren vs Trump Virginia Details

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 1.1 years.

Sanders Trump
46.2% 44.9%
 
Sanders up by 1.3%
(Weak Sanders)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Sanders Trump
59.4% 40.6%
Sanders vs Trump Virginia Details

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 8.0 years.

Buttigieg Trump
46.8% 43.3%
 
Buttigieg up by 3.4%
(Weak Buttigieg)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Buttigieg Trump
80.6% 19.4%
Buttigieg vs Trump Virginia Details

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 16.0 years.

Harris Trump
49.8% 46.0%
 
Harris up by 3.8%
(Weak Harris)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Harris Trump
82.9% 17.1%
Harris vs Trump Virginia Details

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 12.0 years.

Bloomberg Trump
48.5% 43.2%
 
Bloomberg up by 5.3%
(Strong Bloomberg)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Bloomberg Trump
91.7% 8.3%
Bloomberg vs Trump Virginia Details

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Tip Jar.

 

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

Page cached at 2024-10-20 11:39:32 UTC

Original calculation time was 132.350 seconds

 

Page displayed at 2024-11-07 18:17:37 UTC

Page generated in 0.017 seconds