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2020 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations in Minnesota [10 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2019-10-15 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2019-10-22 05:34 UTC

State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to National Summary

 

 

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 15.0 years.

Sanders Trump
50.6% 44.3%
 
Sanders up by 6.4%
(Strong Sanders)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Sanders Trump
95.4% 4.6%
Sanders vs Trump Minnesota Details

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 15.0 years.

Warren Trump
51.0% 44.3%
 
Warren up by 6.8%
(Strong Warren)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Warren Trump
96.2% 3.8%
Warren vs Trump Minnesota Details

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 11.0 years.

Biden Trump
51.4% 42.3%
 
Biden up by 9.1%
(Strong Biden)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden Trump
99.5% 0.5%
Biden vs Trump Minnesota Details

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 19.0 years.

Harris Trump
50.4% 45.3%
 
Harris up by 5.1%
(Strong Harris)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Harris Trump
91.2% 8.8%
Harris vs Trump Minnesota Details

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 19.0 years.

Buttigieg Trump
50.4% 45.3%
 
Buttigieg up by 5.1%
(Strong Buttigieg)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Buttigieg Trump
91.2% 8.8%
Buttigieg vs Trump Minnesota Details

Poll Average

The average currently includes 5 polls spanning the last 19.0 years.

O'Rourke Trump
50.4% 45.3%
 
O'Rourke up by 5.1%
(Strong O'Rourke)

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

O'Rourke Trump
91.2% 8.8%
O'Rourke vs Trump Minnesota Details

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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