2020 Electoral College
Sanders vs Trump - Michigan [16 EV]
Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-03-21 12:00 UTC
Last Poll Update: 2020-04-29 19:39 UTC
Leaders: Biden vs Trump Best Polled: Biden vs Trump Warren vs Trump Sanders vs Trump Buttigieg vs Trump Harris vs Trump Bloomberg vs Trump || Comparison
Switch to Sanders vs Trump National Summary
Probabilities
Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:
Polls Used in Average
Middate/Time Pollster Sanders Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-03-21 12:00
Baldwin Wallace w/Probably [2]
45.0%
42.3%
Sanders
2020-03-17
2020-03-26
2020-03-21 12:00
Baldwin Wallace Definitely [2]
30.9%
34.2%
Trump
2020-03-17
2020-03-26
2020-03-14 12:00
Restoration PAC
48.5%
44.2%
Sanders
2020-03-12
2020-03-27
2020-03-08 12:00
AtlasIntel
45.5%
43.4%
Sanders
2020-03-07
2020-03-09
2020-03-07 12:00
YouGov
43.0%
42.0%
Sanders
2020-03-06
2020-03-09
2020-03-07 00:00
Monmouth
46.0%
41.0%
Sanders
2020-03-05
2020-03-09
Older Polls
Middate/Time Pollster Sanders Trump Margin Start/End Released/Entered 2020-03-06 12:00
Firehouse
41.0%
48.0%
Trump
2020-03-05
2020-03-08
2020-03-05 12:00
OurProgress
49.6%
47.1%
Sanders
2020-03-03
2020-03-09
2020-02-16 00:00
YouGov
48.0%
41.0%
Sanders
2020-02-11
2020-02-23
2020-02-15 12:00
Quinnipiac
48.0%
43.0%
Sanders
2020-02-12
2020-02-20
2020-02-12 12:00
Expedition
46.0%
42.0%
Sanders
2020-02-06
2020-02-24
2020-01-11 00:00
EPIC-MRA
50.0%
45.0%
Sanders
2020-01-09
2020-01-15
2020-01-05 12:00
Glengariff
49.0%
44.8%
Sanders
2020-01-03
2020-01-08
2019-12-04 12:00
Firehouse
42.0%
48.0%
Trump
2019-12-03
2019-12-08
2019-11-03 12:00
Civiqs
47.0%
43.0%
Sanders
2019-11-03
2019-11-05
2019-11-02 00:00
Emerson
56.9%
43.1%
Sanders
2019-10-31
2019-11-03
2019-10-19 12:00
NYT/Sienna LV [2]
46.0%
42.0%
Sanders
2019-10-13
2019-11-04
2019-10-19 12:00
NYT/Sienna RV [2]
45.0%
43.0%
Sanders
2019-10-13
2019-11-04
2019-09-08 12:00
Firehouse
40.0%
43.0%
Trump
2019-09-07
2019-09-12
2019-08-19 12:00
EPIC-MRA
48.0%
44.0%
Sanders
2019-08-17
2019-08-28
2019-07-16 00:00
Climate Nexus
48.0%
37.0%
Sanders
2019-07-14
2019-07-29
2019-06-12 12:00
Firehouse
44.0%
44.0%
TIED
2019-06-11
2019-06-16
2019-05-29 12:00
Glengariff
53.2%
41.3%
Sanders
2019-05-28
2019-06-02
2019-04-16 12:00
Tulchin Final [2]
51.0%
41.0%
Sanders
2019-04-14
2019-04-22
2019-04-16 12:00
Tulchin Initial [2]
52.0%
41.0%
Sanders
2019-04-14
2019-04-22
2019-03-20 12:00
Firehouse
45.0%
46.0%
Trump
2019-03-19
2019-03-23
2019-03-09 00:00
Emerson w/3P [2]
48.9%
45.3%
Sanders
2019-03-07
2019-03-10
2019-03-09 00:00
Emerson [2]
52.5%
47.5%
Sanders
2019-03-07
2019-03-10
2019-01-25 12:00
Glengariff
52.0%
41.2%
Sanders
2019-01-24
2019-01-27
2016-11-08 12:00
Election2016
47.3%
47.5%
REP
2016-11-08
2016-11-08
2012-11-06 12:00
Election2012
54.2%
44.7%
DEM
2012-11-06
2012-11-06
2008-11-04 12:00
Election2008
57.4%
41.0%
DEM
2008-11-04
2008-11-04
2004-11-02 12:00
Election2004
51.2%
47.8%
DEM
2004-11-02
2004-11-02
2000-11-07 12:00
Election2000
51.3%
46.2%
DEM
2000-11-07
2000-11-07
1996-11-06 12:00
Election1996
51.7%
38.5%
DEM
1996-11-06
1996-11-06
1992-11-03 12:00
Election1992
43.8%
36.4%
DEM
1992-11-03
1992-11-03
1988-11-08 12:00
Election1988
45.7%
53.6%
REP
1988-11-08
1988-11-08
1984-11-06 12:00
Election1984
40.2%
59.2%
REP
1984-11-06
1984-11-06
1980-11-04 12:00
Election1980
42.5%
49.0%
REP
1980-11-04
1980-11-04
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin ".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here .
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