2020 Electoral College

O'Rourke vs Trump - Texas [38 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2019-10-23 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2019-11-04 08:13 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to O'Rourke vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

O'Rourke Trump
 
 

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

O'Rourke Trump
/td> 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterO'RourkeTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2019-10-23 00:00

UT/TT

41.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 6.0%

2019-10-18
2019-10-27

2019-11-04
2019-11-04 08:13

2019-09-14 12:00

UT Tyler

42.0%

39.7%

O'Rourke
by 2.3%

2019-09-13
2019-09-15

2019-09-19
2019-09-19 17:47

2019-08-23 00:00

Climate Nexus

44.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2019-08-20
2019-08-25

2019-09-11
2019-09-11 16:53

2019-08-03 00:00

UT Tyler

43.0%

37.3%

O'Rourke
by 5.7%

2019-08-01
2019-08-04

2019-08-06
2019-08-06 18:05

2019-08-02 12:00

Emerson

48.1%

51.9%

Trump
by 3.8%

2019-08-01
2019-08-03

2019-08-06
2019-08-06 16:59

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterO'RourkeTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2019-07-26 00:00

UT Tyler

48.8%

37.6%

O'Rourke
by 11.2%

2019-07-24
2019-07-27

2019-07-30
2019-07-30 16:24

2019-06-01 12:00

Quinnipiac

45.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2019-05-29
2019-06-04

2019-06-05
2019-06-05 18:15

2019-04-27 00:00

Emerson

50.3%

49.7%

O'Rourke
by 0.6%

2019-04-25
2019-04-28

2019-04-28
2019-04-29 15:15

2019-02-23 00:00

Quinnipiac

46.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 1.0%

2019-02-20
2019-02-25

2019-02-28
2019-03-07 03:26

2019-01-08 12:00

Atlantic

39.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 13.0%

2019-01-05
2019-01-11

2019-01-12
2019-03-04 16:28

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

43.2%

52.2%

REP
by 9.0%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-24 18:11

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

41.4%

57.2%

REP
by 15.8%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:13

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

43.7%

55.5%

REP
by 11.8%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-06 01:52

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

38.2%

61.1%

REP
by 22.9%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:11

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

38.0%

59.3%

REP
by 21.3%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 11:05

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

43.8%

48.8%

REP
by 4.9%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-18 15:44

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

37.1%

40.6%

REP
by 3.5%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:58

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

43.4%

56.0%

REP
by 12.6%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 20:01

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

36.1%

63.6%

REP
by 27.5%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 07:07

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

41.4%

55.3%

REP
by 13.9%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:20

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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