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2020 Electoral College Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-11-02 12:00 UTC Last Poll Update: 2020-11-03 18:47 UTC |
Switch to National Summary
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Poll Average Categorization | | Biden | Trump | Margin |
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| Trump Best | 237 | 301 | Trump by 64 |
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| Expected | 335 | 203 | Biden by 132 |
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| Biden Best | 413 | 125 | Biden by 288 |
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The tipping point state is PA where Biden is ahead by 2.3%. |
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| Probabilistic Model | | Median: | Biden by 108 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Biden by 172 ----- Biden by 48 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Biden by 232 ---------- Trump by 6 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Biden by 276 --------------- Trump by 50 | | Odds: | Biden: 97.3% — Tie: 0.3% — Trump: 2.5% |
| | Biden vs Trump Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Warren | Trump | Margin |
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| Trump Best | 209 | 329 | Trump by 120 |
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| Expected | 265 | 273 | Trump by 8 |
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| Warren Best | 368 | 170 | Warren by 198 |
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The tipping point state is OH where Trump is ahead by 0.5%. |
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| Probabilistic Model | | Median: | Trump by 20 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Warren by 28 ----- Trump by 66 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Warren by 82 ---------- Trump by 104 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Warren by 136 --------------- Trump by 128 | | Odds: | Warren: 31.6% — Tie: 1.7% — Trump: 66.7% |
| | Warren vs Trump Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Sanders | Trump | Margin |
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| Trump Best | 215 | 323 | Trump by 108 |
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| Expected | 267 | 271 | Trump by 4 |
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| Sanders Best | 406 | 132 | Sanders by 274 |
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The tipping point state is WI where Trump is ahead by 0.9%. |
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| Probabilistic Model | | Median: | Trump by 2 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Sanders by 56 ----- Trump by 46 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Sanders by 118 ---------- Trump by 84 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Sanders by 180 --------------- Trump by 114 | | Odds: | Sanders: 48.0% — Tie: 1.5% — Trump: 50.5% |
| | Sanders vs Trump Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Buttigieg | Trump | Margin |
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| Trump Best | 213 | 325 | Trump by 112 |
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| Expected | 269 | 269 | Buttigieg/Trump TIE |
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| Buttigieg Best | 374 | 164 | Buttigieg by 210 |
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The tipping point state is WI where Trump is ahead by 1.0%. |
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| Probabilistic Model | | Median: | Buttigieg/Trump TIE | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Buttigieg by 50 ----- Trump by 42 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Buttigieg by 100 ---------- Trump by 78 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Buttigieg by 154 --------------- Trump by 110 | | Odds: | Buttigieg: 47.7% — Tie: 3.9% — Trump: 48.3% |
| | Buttigieg vs Trump Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Harris | Trump | Margin |
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| Trump Best | 200 | 338 | Trump by 138 |
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| Expected | 279 | 259 | Harris by 20 |
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| Harris Best | 363 | 175 | Harris by 188 |
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The tipping point state is WI where Harris is ahead by 1.4%. |
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| Probabilistic Model | | Median: | Harris by 12 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Harris by 54 ----- Trump by 28 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Harris by 104 ---------- Trump by 66 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Harris by 154 --------------- Trump by 102 | | Odds: | Harris: 58.1% — Tie: 4.5% — Trump: 37.4% |
| | Harris vs Trump Summary |
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Poll Average Categorization | | Bloomberg | Trump | Margin |
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| Trump Best | 213 | 325 | Trump by 112 |
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| Expected | 313 | 225 | Bloomberg by 88 |
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| Bloomberg Best | 385 | 153 | Bloomberg by 232 |
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The tipping point state is MI where Bloomberg is ahead by 2.4%. |
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| Probabilistic Model | | Median: | Bloomberg by 46 | | 1σ (68.27%) range: | Bloomberg by 88 ----- Trump by 2 | | 2σ (95.45%) range: | Bloomberg by 146 ---------- Trump by 52 | | 3σ (99.73%) range: | Bloomberg by 200 --------------- Trump by 98 | | Odds: | Bloomberg: 81.7% — Tie: 1.3% — Trump: 17.0% |
| | Bloomberg vs Trump Summary |
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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.
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