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2020 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2019-11-17 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2019-11-20 19:42 UTC

History Shown in Graphs: 

Switch to National Summary

 

Poll Average Categorization

SandersTrumpMargin
Trump Best217321Trump by 104
Expected328210Sanders by 118
Sanders Best412126Sanders by 286
The tipping point state is WI where Sanders is ahead by 1.7%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Sanders by 88
1σ (68.27%) range:
Sanders by 148 ----- Sanders by 30
2σ (95.45%) range:
Sanders by 214 ---------- Trump by 20
3σ (99.73%) range:
Sanders by 252 --------------- Trump by 62
Odds:
Sanders: 94.2% — Tie: 0.6% — Trump: 5.3%

Sanders vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

WarrenTrumpMargin
Trump Best213325Trump by 112
Expected293245Warren by 48
Warren Best368170Warren by 198
The tipping point state is FL where Warren is ahead by 0.6%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Warren by 46
1σ (68.27%) range:
Warren by 102 ----- Trump by 6
2σ (95.45%) range:
Warren by 156 ---------- Trump by 54
3σ (99.73%) range:
Warren by 212 --------------- Trump by 92
Odds:
Warren: 80.4% — Tie: 1.3% — Trump: 18.3%

Warren vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BidenTrumpMargin
Trump Best242296Trump by 54
Expected374164Biden by 210
Biden Best412126Biden by 286
The tipping point state is GA where Biden is ahead by 4.3%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Biden by 156
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 210 ----- Biden by 100
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 272 ---------- Biden by 52
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 286 --------------- Biden by 8
Odds:
Biden: 99.9% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 0.1%

Biden vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

HarrisTrumpMargin
Trump Best200338Trump by 138
Expected279259Harris by 20
Harris Best363175Harris by 188
The tipping point state is WI where Harris is ahead by 1.4%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Harris by 12
1σ (68.27%) range:
Harris by 54 ----- Trump by 28
2σ (95.45%) range:
Harris by 104 ---------- Trump by 66
3σ (99.73%) range:
Harris by 154 --------------- Trump by 104
Odds:
Harris: 58.2% — Tie: 4.4% — Trump: 37.4%

Harris vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

ButtigiegTrumpMargin
Trump Best204334Trump by 130
Expected262276Trump by 14
Buttigieg Best363175Buttigieg by 188
The tipping point state is VA where Trump is ahead by 0.1%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Trump by 12
1σ (68.27%) range:
Buttigieg by 38 ----- Trump by 58
2σ (95.45%) range:
Buttigieg by 88 ---------- Trump by 98
3σ (99.73%) range:
Buttigieg by 132 --------------- Trump by 128
Odds:
Buttigieg: 38.9% — Tie: 2.9% — Trump: 58.2%

Buttigieg vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

O'RourkeTrumpMargin
Trump Best200338Trump by 138
Expected246292Trump by 46
O'Rourke Best385153O'Rourke by 232
The tipping point state is FL where Trump is ahead by 0.3%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
O'Rourke by 28
1σ (68.27%) range:
O'Rourke by 90 ----- Trump by 32
2σ (95.45%) range:
O'Rourke by 150 ---------- Trump by 78
3σ (99.73%) range:
O'Rourke by 200 --------------- Trump by 116
Odds:
O'Rourke: 66.3% — Tie: 1.2% — Trump: 32.4%

O'Rourke vs Trump Summary

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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