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2020 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-08-01 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-08-05 20:17 UTC

History Shown in Graphs: 

Switch to National Summary

 

Poll Average Categorization

BidenTrumpMargin
Trump Best263275Trump by 12
Expected353185Biden by 168
Biden Best413125Biden by 288
The tipping point state is PA where Biden is ahead by 4.6%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Biden by 168
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 226 ----- Biden by 110
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 276 ---------- Biden by 56
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 290 --------------- Biden by 12
Odds:
Biden: 100.0% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 0.0%

Biden vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

WarrenTrumpMargin
Trump Best209329Trump by 120
Expected265273Trump by 8
Warren Best368170Warren by 198
The tipping point state is OH where Trump is ahead by 0.5%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Trump by 20
1σ (68.27%) range:
Warren by 28 ----- Trump by 66
2σ (95.45%) range:
Warren by 82 ---------- Trump by 102
3σ (99.73%) range:
Warren by 138 --------------- Trump by 126
Odds:
Warren: 32.1% — Tie: 1.7% — Trump: 66.1%

Warren vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

SandersTrumpMargin
Trump Best215323Trump by 108
Expected267271Trump by 4
Sanders Best406132Sanders by 274
The tipping point state is WI where Trump is ahead by 0.9%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Trump by 2
1σ (68.27%) range:
Sanders by 54 ----- Trump by 46
2σ (95.45%) range:
Sanders by 118 ---------- Trump by 84
3σ (99.73%) range:
Sanders by 180 --------------- Trump by 116
Odds:
Sanders: 47.5% — Tie: 1.5% — Trump: 50.9%

Sanders vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

ButtigiegTrumpMargin
Trump Best213325Trump by 112
Expected269269Buttigieg/Trump TIE
Buttigieg Best374164Buttigieg by 210
The tipping point state is WI where Trump is ahead by 1.0%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Trump by 10
1σ (68.27%) range:
Buttigieg by 30 ----- Trump by 48
2σ (95.45%) range:
Buttigieg by 78 ---------- Trump by 84
3σ (99.73%) range:
Buttigieg by 132 --------------- Trump by 112
Odds:
Buttigieg: 37.2% — Tie: 4.7% — Trump: 58.1%

Buttigieg vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

HarrisTrumpMargin
Trump Best200338Trump by 138
Expected279259Harris by 20
Harris Best363175Harris by 188
The tipping point state is WI where Harris is ahead by 1.4%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Harris by 12
1σ (68.27%) range:
Harris by 54 ----- Trump by 28
2σ (95.45%) range:
Harris by 104 ---------- Trump by 66
3σ (99.73%) range:
Harris by 154 --------------- Trump by 102
Odds:
Harris: 58.2% — Tie: 4.4% — Trump: 37.4%

Harris vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BloombergTrumpMargin
Trump Best213325Trump by 112
Expected313225Bloomberg by 88
Bloomberg Best385153Bloomberg by 232
The tipping point state is MI where Bloomberg is ahead by 2.4%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Bloomberg by 46
1σ (68.27%) range:
Bloomberg by 88 ----- Trump by 2
2σ (95.45%) range:
Bloomberg by 146 ---------- Trump by 52
3σ (99.73%) range:
Bloomberg by 200 --------------- Trump by 98
Odds:
Bloomberg: 81.7% — Tie: 1.3% — Trump: 17.1%

Bloomberg vs Trump Summary

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

 

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