
2020 Electoral College Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations Most Recent Poll (middate): 20200122 00:00 UTC Last Poll Update: 20200129 04:17 UTC 
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Poll Average Categorization   Sanders  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  204  334  Trump by 130 

Expected  282  256  Sanders by 26 

Sanders Best  412  126  Sanders by 286 

The tipping point state is NC where Sanders is ahead by 0.1%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Sanders by 48  1σ (68.27%) range:  Sanders by 108  Trump by 6  2σ (95.45%) range:  Sanders by 174  Trump by 52  3σ (99.73%) range:  Sanders by 232  Trump by 96  Odds:  Sanders: 79.4% — Tie: 1.4% — Trump: 19.3% 
 Sanders vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Biden  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  226  312  Trump by 86 

Expected  358  180  Biden by 178 

Biden Best  412  126  Biden by 286 

The tipping point state is PA where Biden is ahead by 3.0%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Biden by 116  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 172  Biden by 60  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 232  Biden by 14  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 274  Trump by 36  Odds:  Biden: 98.7% — Tie: 0.1% — Trump: 1.2% 
 Biden vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Warren  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  200  338  Trump by 138 

Expected  263  275  Trump by 12 

Warren Best  368  170  Warren by 198 

The tipping point state is OH where Trump is ahead by 0.5%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Trump by 6  1σ (68.27%) range:  Warren by 42  Trump by 50  2σ (95.45%) range:  Warren by 90  Trump by 88  3σ (99.73%) range:  Warren by 146  Trump by 118  Odds:  Warren: 44.3% — Tie: 2.0% — Trump: 53.7% 
 Warren vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Buttigieg  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  204  334  Trump by 130 

Expected  227  311  Trump by 84 

Buttigieg Best  374  164  Buttigieg by 210 

The tipping point state is FL where Trump is ahead by 2.2%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Trump by 52  1σ (68.27%) range:  Trump by 8  Trump by 92  2σ (95.45%) range:  Buttigieg by 42  Trump by 116  3σ (99.73%) range:  Buttigieg by 90  Trump by 136  Odds:  Buttigieg: 11.6% — Tie: 0.7% — Trump: 87.6% 
 Buttigieg vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Harris  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  200  338  Trump by 138 

Expected  279  259  Harris by 20 

Harris Best  363  175  Harris by 188 

The tipping point state is WI where Harris is ahead by 1.4%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Harris by 12  1σ (68.27%) range:  Harris by 54  Trump by 28  2σ (95.45%) range:  Harris by 104  Trump by 66  3σ (99.73%) range:  Harris by 154  Trump by 102  Odds:  Harris: 58.1% — Tie: 4.5% — Trump: 37.4% 
 Harris vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   O'Rourke  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  200  338  Trump by 138 

Expected  246  292  Trump by 46 

O'Rourke Best  385  153  O'Rourke by 232 

The tipping point state is FL where Trump is ahead by 0.3%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  O'Rourke by 28  1σ (68.27%) range:  O'Rourke by 90  Trump by 32  2σ (95.45%) range:  O'Rourke by 150  Trump by 78  3σ (99.73%) range:  O'Rourke by 200  Trump by 116  Odds:  O'Rourke: 66.5% — Tie: 1.2% — Trump: 32.3% 
 O'Rourke vs Trump Summary 



 
 
 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 20082016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".
Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.
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