
2020 Electoral College Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations Most Recent Poll (middate): 20191117 00:00 UTC Last Poll Update: 20191120 19:42 UTC 
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Poll Average Categorization   Sanders  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  217  321  Trump by 104 

Expected  328  210  Sanders by 118 

Sanders Best  412  126  Sanders by 286 

The tipping point state is WI where Sanders is ahead by 1.7%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Sanders by 88  1σ (68.27%) range:  Sanders by 148  Sanders by 30  2σ (95.45%) range:  Sanders by 214  Trump by 20  3σ (99.73%) range:  Sanders by 252  Trump by 62  Odds:  Sanders: 94.2% — Tie: 0.6% — Trump: 5.3% 
 Sanders vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Warren  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  213  325  Trump by 112 

Expected  293  245  Warren by 48 

Warren Best  368  170  Warren by 198 

The tipping point state is FL where Warren is ahead by 0.6%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Warren by 46  1σ (68.27%) range:  Warren by 102  Trump by 6  2σ (95.45%) range:  Warren by 156  Trump by 54  3σ (99.73%) range:  Warren by 212  Trump by 92  Odds:  Warren: 80.4% — Tie: 1.3% — Trump: 18.3% 
 Warren vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Biden  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  242  296  Trump by 54 

Expected  374  164  Biden by 210 

Biden Best  412  126  Biden by 286 

The tipping point state is GA where Biden is ahead by 4.3%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Biden by 156  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 210  Biden by 100  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 272  Biden by 52  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 286  Biden by 8  Odds:  Biden: 99.9% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 0.1% 
 Biden vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Harris  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  200  338  Trump by 138 

Expected  279  259  Harris by 20 

Harris Best  363  175  Harris by 188 

The tipping point state is WI where Harris is ahead by 1.4%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Harris by 12  1σ (68.27%) range:  Harris by 54  Trump by 28  2σ (95.45%) range:  Harris by 104  Trump by 66  3σ (99.73%) range:  Harris by 154  Trump by 104  Odds:  Harris: 58.2% — Tie: 4.4% — Trump: 37.4% 
 Harris vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Buttigieg  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  204  334  Trump by 130 

Expected  262  276  Trump by 14 

Buttigieg Best  363  175  Buttigieg by 188 

The tipping point state is VA where Trump is ahead by 0.1%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Trump by 12  1σ (68.27%) range:  Buttigieg by 38  Trump by 58  2σ (95.45%) range:  Buttigieg by 88  Trump by 98  3σ (99.73%) range:  Buttigieg by 132  Trump by 128  Odds:  Buttigieg: 38.9% — Tie: 2.9% — Trump: 58.2% 
 Buttigieg vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   O'Rourke  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  200  338  Trump by 138 

Expected  246  292  Trump by 46 

O'Rourke Best  385  153  O'Rourke by 232 

The tipping point state is FL where Trump is ahead by 0.3%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  O'Rourke by 28  1σ (68.27%) range:  O'Rourke by 90  Trump by 32  2σ (95.45%) range:  O'Rourke by 150  Trump by 78  3σ (99.73%) range:  O'Rourke by 200  Trump by 116  Odds:  O'Rourke: 66.3% — Tie: 1.2% — Trump: 32.4% 
 O'Rourke vs Trump Summary 



 
 
 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 20082016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".
Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.
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