2020 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2019-05-12 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2019-05-15 18:10 UTC

History Shown in Graphs: 

Switch to National Summary

 

Summary Comparisons

 
BidenTrumpMargin
Trump Best250288Trump by 38
Expected284254Biden by 30
Biden Best396142Biden by 254
The tipping point state is OH where Biden is ahead by 0.3%.
Biden vs Trump Summary

O'RourkeTrumpMargin
Trump Best200338Trump by 138
Expected246292Trump by 46
O'Rourke Best347191O'Rourke by 156
The tipping point state is FL where Trump is ahead by 0.5%.
O'Rourke vs Trump Summary

SandersTrumpMargin
Trump Best214324Trump by 110
Expected272266Sanders by 6
Sanders Best347191Sanders by 156
The tipping point state is IA where Sanders is ahead by 1.0%.
Sanders vs Trump Summary

WarrenTrumpMargin
Trump Best230308Trump by 78
Expected266272Trump by 6
Warren Best347191Warren by 156
The tipping point state is VA where Trump is ahead by 0.1%.
Warren vs Trump Summary

HarrisTrumpMargin
Trump Best216322Trump by 106
Expected266272Trump by 6
Harris Best347191Harris by 156
The tipping point state is VA where Trump is ahead by 0.1%.
Harris vs Trump Summary
 

The 'Expected' scenario represents each candiate winning all the states they are ahead in. 'Best' scenarios represent the candidate winning all of the states they are ahead in, plus all of their opponent's 'weak' states.

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.