2020 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-02-20 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-02-24 19:58 UTC

History Shown in Graphs: 

Switch to National Summary

 

Poll Average Categorization

SandersTrumpMargin
Trump Best206332Trump by 126
Expected302236Sanders by 66
Sanders Best374164Sanders by 210
The tipping point state is PA where Sanders is ahead by 0.8%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Sanders by 50
1σ (68.27%) range:
Sanders by 104 ----- Trump by 2
2σ (95.45%) range:
Sanders by 150 ---------- Trump by 48
3σ (99.73%) range:
Sanders by 196 --------------- Trump by 90
Odds:
Sanders: 82.7% — Tie: 1.2% — Trump: 16.1%

Sanders vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

WarrenTrumpMargin
Trump Best200338Trump by 138
Expected265273Trump by 8
Warren Best368170Warren by 198
The tipping point state is OH where Trump is ahead by 0.5%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Trump by 4
1σ (68.27%) range:
Warren by 44 ----- Trump by 48
2σ (95.45%) range:
Warren by 94 ---------- Trump by 88
3σ (99.73%) range:
Warren by 144 --------------- Trump by 118
Odds:
Warren: 45.0% — Tie: 2.0% — Trump: 53.0%

Warren vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BidenTrumpMargin
Trump Best222316Trump by 94
Expected368170Biden by 198
Biden Best374164Biden by 210
The tipping point state is MI where Biden is ahead by 3.2%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Biden by 106
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 156 ----- Biden by 56
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 198 ---------- Biden by 10
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 254 --------------- Trump by 36
Odds:
Biden: 98.6% — Tie: 0.1% — Trump: 1.3%

Biden vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

ButtigiegTrumpMargin
Trump Best204334Trump by 130
Expected249289Trump by 40
Buttigieg Best374164Buttigieg by 210
The tipping point state is OH where Trump is ahead by 2.1%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Trump by 40
1σ (68.27%) range:
Buttigieg by 2 ----- Trump by 72
2σ (95.45%) range:
Buttigieg by 52 ---------- Trump by 102
3σ (99.73%) range:
Buttigieg by 98 --------------- Trump by 128
Odds:
Buttigieg: 16.3% — Tie: 1.4% — Trump: 82.3%

Buttigieg vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

HarrisTrumpMargin
Trump Best200338Trump by 138
Expected279259Harris by 20
Harris Best363175Harris by 188
The tipping point state is WI where Harris is ahead by 1.4%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Harris by 12
1σ (68.27%) range:
Harris by 54 ----- Trump by 28
2σ (95.45%) range:
Harris by 104 ---------- Trump by 66
3σ (99.73%) range:
Harris by 152 --------------- Trump by 102
Odds:
Harris: 58.2% — Tie: 4.4% — Trump: 37.4%

Harris vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

BloombergTrumpMargin
Trump Best200338Trump by 138
Expected308230Bloomberg by 78
Bloomberg Best347191Bloomberg by 156
The tipping point state is FL where Bloomberg is ahead by 0.7%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Bloomberg by 20
1σ (68.27%) range:
Bloomberg by 68 ----- Trump by 28
2σ (95.45%) range:
Bloomberg by 112 ---------- Trump by 72
3σ (99.73%) range:
Bloomberg by 148 --------------- Trump by 114
Odds:
Bloomberg: 65.0% — Tie: 2.5% — Trump: 32.5%

Bloomberg vs Trump Summary

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Tip Jar.

 

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

Page cached at 2020-02-25 20:15:55 UTC

Original calculation time was 4.389 seconds

 

Page displayed at 2020-02-25 21:54:26 UTC

Page generated in 0.009 seconds