
2020 Electoral College Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations Most Recent Poll (middate): 20190915 00:00 UTC Last Poll Update: 20190919 17:47 UTC 
Switch to National Summary


Poll Average Categorization   Biden  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  270  268  Biden by 2 

Expected  390  148  Biden by 242 

Biden Best  396  142  Biden by 254 

The tipping point state is NC where Biden is ahead by 5.1%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Biden by 166  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 220  Biden by 108  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 254  Biden by 50  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 274  Biden by 8  Odds:  Biden: 99.9% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 0.1% 
 Biden vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Warren  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  200  338  Trump by 138 

Expected  246  292  Trump by 46 

Warren Best  396  142  Warren by 254 

The tipping point state is FL where Trump is ahead by 0.1%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Warren by 20  1σ (68.27%) range:  Warren by 78  Trump by 36  2σ (95.45%) range:  Warren by 144  Trump by 78  3σ (99.73%) range:  Warren by 200  Trump by 116  Odds:  Warren: 62.6% — Tie: 1.4% — Trump: 36.0% 
 Warren vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Sanders  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  214  324  Trump by 110 

Expected  339  199  Sanders by 140 

Sanders Best  385  153  Sanders by 232 

The tipping point state is TX where Sanders is ahead by 1.2%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Sanders by 102  1σ (68.27%) range:  Sanders by 164  Sanders by 40  2σ (95.45%) range:  Sanders by 206  Trump by 12  3σ (99.73%) range:  Sanders by 232  Trump by 58  Odds:  Sanders: 95.4% — Tie: 0.3% — Trump: 4.3% 
 Sanders vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Buttigieg  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  200  338  Trump by 138 

Expected  272  266  Buttigieg by 6 

Buttigieg Best  347  191  Buttigieg by 156 

The tipping point state is PA where Buttigieg is ahead by 0.6%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Buttigieg by 22  1σ (68.27%) range:  Buttigieg by 74  Trump by 26  2σ (95.45%) range:  Buttigieg by 120  Trump by 68  3σ (99.73%) range:  Buttigieg by 158  Trump by 104  Odds:  Buttigieg: 66.5% — Tie: 1.5% — Trump: 32.0% 
 Buttigieg vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Harris  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  200  338  Trump by 138 

Expected  266  272  Trump by 6 

Harris Best  347  191  Harris by 156 

The tipping point state is VA where Trump is ahead by 0.1%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Harris by 8  1σ (68.27%) range:  Harris by 56  Trump by 34  2σ (95.45%) range:  Harris by 106  Trump by 74  3σ (99.73%) range:  Harris by 162  Trump by 110  Odds:  Harris: 54.7% — Tie: 2.4% — Trump: 42.9% 
 Harris vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   O'Rourke  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  200  338  Trump by 138 

Expected  284  254  O'Rourke by 30 

O'Rourke Best  385  153  O'Rourke by 232 

The tipping point state is WI where O'Rourke is ahead by 2.8%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  O'Rourke by 58  1σ (68.27%) range:  O'Rourke by 114  Trump by 2  2σ (95.45%) range:  O'Rourke by 164  Trump by 64  3σ (99.73%) range:  O'Rourke by 202  Trump by 104  Odds:  O'Rourke: 83.1% — Tie: 0.8% — Trump: 16.1% 
 O'Rourke vs Trump Summary 



 
 
 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.
Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.
For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.
If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com
If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Tip Jar.
The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 20082016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".
Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage
Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.
Page cached at 20190921 18:38:31 UTC
Original calculation time was 5.028 seconds
Page displayed at 20190921 21:53:39 UTC
Page generated in 0.009 seconds