2020 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2019-09-15 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2019-09-19 17:47 UTC

History Shown in Graphs: 

Switch to National Summary

 

Poll Average Categorization

BidenTrumpMargin
Trump Best270268Biden by 2
Expected390148Biden by 242
Biden Best396142Biden by 254
The tipping point state is NC where Biden is ahead by 5.1%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Biden by 166
1σ (68.27%) range:
Biden by 220 ----- Biden by 108
2σ (95.45%) range:
Biden by 254 ---------- Biden by 50
3σ (99.73%) range:
Biden by 274 --------------- Biden by 8
Odds:
Biden: 99.9% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 0.1%

Biden vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

WarrenTrumpMargin
Trump Best200338Trump by 138
Expected246292Trump by 46
Warren Best396142Warren by 254
The tipping point state is FL where Trump is ahead by 0.1%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Warren by 20
1σ (68.27%) range:
Warren by 78 ----- Trump by 36
2σ (95.45%) range:
Warren by 144 ---------- Trump by 78
3σ (99.73%) range:
Warren by 200 --------------- Trump by 116
Odds:
Warren: 62.6% — Tie: 1.4% — Trump: 36.0%

Warren vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

SandersTrumpMargin
Trump Best214324Trump by 110
Expected339199Sanders by 140
Sanders Best385153Sanders by 232
The tipping point state is TX where Sanders is ahead by 1.2%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Sanders by 102
1σ (68.27%) range:
Sanders by 164 ----- Sanders by 40
2σ (95.45%) range:
Sanders by 206 ---------- Trump by 12
3σ (99.73%) range:
Sanders by 232 --------------- Trump by 58
Odds:
Sanders: 95.4% — Tie: 0.3% — Trump: 4.3%

Sanders vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

ButtigiegTrumpMargin
Trump Best200338Trump by 138
Expected272266Buttigieg by 6
Buttigieg Best347191Buttigieg by 156
The tipping point state is PA where Buttigieg is ahead by 0.6%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Buttigieg by 22
1σ (68.27%) range:
Buttigieg by 74 ----- Trump by 26
2σ (95.45%) range:
Buttigieg by 120 ---------- Trump by 68
3σ (99.73%) range:
Buttigieg by 158 --------------- Trump by 104
Odds:
Buttigieg: 66.5% — Tie: 1.5% — Trump: 32.0%

Buttigieg vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

HarrisTrumpMargin
Trump Best200338Trump by 138
Expected266272Trump by 6
Harris Best347191Harris by 156
The tipping point state is VA where Trump is ahead by 0.1%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
Harris by 8
1σ (68.27%) range:
Harris by 56 ----- Trump by 34
2σ (95.45%) range:
Harris by 106 ---------- Trump by 74
3σ (99.73%) range:
Harris by 162 --------------- Trump by 110
Odds:
Harris: 54.7% — Tie: 2.4% — Trump: 42.9%

Harris vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

O'RourkeTrumpMargin
Trump Best200338Trump by 138
Expected284254O'Rourke by 30
O'Rourke Best385153O'Rourke by 232
The tipping point state is WI where O'Rourke is ahead by 2.8%.

Probabilistic Model

Median:
O'Rourke by 58
1σ (68.27%) range:
O'Rourke by 114 ----- Trump by 2
2σ (95.45%) range:
O'Rourke by 164 ---------- Trump by 64
3σ (99.73%) range:
O'Rourke by 202 --------------- Trump by 104
Odds:
O'Rourke: 83.1% — Tie: 0.8% — Trump: 16.1%

O'Rourke vs Trump Summary

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Tip Jar.

 

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

Page cached at 2019-09-21 18:38:31 UTC

Original calculation time was 5.028 seconds

 

Page displayed at 2019-09-21 21:53:39 UTC

Page generated in 0.009 seconds