
2020 Electoral College Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations Most Recent Poll (middate): 20200703 00:00 UTC Last Poll Update: 20200706 17:51 UTC 
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Poll Average Categorization   Warren  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  209  329  Trump by 120 

Expected  265  273  Trump by 8 

Warren Best  368  170  Warren by 198 

The tipping point state is OH where Trump is ahead by 0.5%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Trump by 20  1σ (68.27%) range:  Warren by 28  Trump by 66  2σ (95.45%) range:  Warren by 82  Trump by 104  3σ (99.73%) range:  Warren by 136  Trump by 128  Odds:  Warren: 32.0% — Tie: 1.7% — Trump: 66.2% 
 Warren vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Biden  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  297  241  Biden by 56 

Expected  350  188  Biden by 162 

Biden Best  413  125  Biden by 288 

The tipping point state is FL where Biden is ahead by 5.2%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Biden by 156  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 212  Biden by 108  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 260  Biden by 62  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 286  Biden by 12  Odds:  Biden: 100.0% — Tie: 0.0% — Trump: 0.0% 
 Biden vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Sanders  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  215  323  Trump by 108 

Expected  267  271  Trump by 4 

Sanders Best  406  132  Sanders by 274 

The tipping point state is WI where Trump is ahead by 0.9%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Trump by 2  1σ (68.27%) range:  Sanders by 54  Trump by 46  2σ (95.45%) range:  Sanders by 118  Trump by 84  3σ (99.73%) range:  Sanders by 180  Trump by 116  Odds:  Sanders: 47.6% — Tie: 1.5% — Trump: 50.9% 
 Sanders vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Buttigieg  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  213  325  Trump by 112 

Expected  269  269  Buttigieg/Trump TIE 

Buttigieg Best  374  164  Buttigieg by 210 

The tipping point state is WI where Trump is ahead by 1.0%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Buttigieg/Trump TIE  1σ (68.27%) range:  Buttigieg by 48  Trump by 42  2σ (95.45%) range:  Buttigieg by 100  Trump by 78  3σ (99.73%) range:  Buttigieg by 154  Trump by 110  Odds:  Buttigieg: 47.7% — Tie: 3.9% — Trump: 48.4% 
 Buttigieg vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Harris  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  200  338  Trump by 138 

Expected  279  259  Harris by 20 

Harris Best  363  175  Harris by 188 

The tipping point state is WI where Harris is ahead by 1.4%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Harris by 12  1σ (68.27%) range:  Harris by 54  Trump by 28  2σ (95.45%) range:  Harris by 104  Trump by 66  3σ (99.73%) range:  Harris by 154  Trump by 102  Odds:  Harris: 58.1% — Tie: 4.4% — Trump: 37.4% 
 Harris vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Bloomberg  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  213  325  Trump by 112 

Expected  313  225  Bloomberg by 88 

Bloomberg Best  385  153  Bloomberg by 232 

The tipping point state is MI where Bloomberg is ahead by 2.4%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Bloomberg by 46  1σ (68.27%) range:  Bloomberg by 88  Trump by 2  2σ (95.45%) range:  Bloomberg by 146  Trump by 52  3σ (99.73%) range:  Bloomberg by 200  Trump by 98  Odds:  Bloomberg: 81.6% — Tie: 1.3% — Trump: 17.1% 
 Bloomberg vs Trump Summary 



 
 
 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 20082016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".
Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.
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