2020 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2019-03-16 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2019-03-18 06:37 UTC

History Shown in Graphs: 

Switch to National Summary

 

Summary Comparisons

 
BidenTrumpMargin
Trump Best230308Trump by 78
Expected290248Biden by 42
Biden Best347191Biden by 156
The tipping point state is CO where Biden is ahead by 1.2%.
Biden vs Trump Summary

WarrenTrumpMargin
Trump Best220318Trump by 98
Expected266272Trump by 6
Warren Best347191Warren by 156
The tipping point state is VA where Trump is ahead by 0.1%.
Warren vs Trump Summary

O'RourkeTrumpMargin
Trump Best216322Trump by 106
Expected266272Trump by 6
O'Rourke Best347191O'Rourke by 156
The tipping point state is IA where Trump is ahead by 0.1%.
O'Rourke vs Trump Summary

HarrisTrumpMargin
Trump Best216322Trump by 106
Expected266272Trump by 6
Harris Best347191Harris by 156
The tipping point state is VA where Trump is ahead by 0.1%.
Harris vs Trump Summary

SandersTrumpMargin
Trump Best220318Trump by 98
Expected272266Sanders by 6
Sanders Best347191Sanders by 156
The tipping point state is IA where Sanders is ahead by 0.9%.
Sanders vs Trump Summary
 

The 'Expected' scenario represents each candiate winning all the states they are ahead in. 'Best' scenarios represent the candidate winning all of the states they are ahead in, plus all of their opponent's 'weak' states.

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.