2020 Electoral College

Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2019-06-24 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2019-07-01 23:12 UTC

History Shown in Graphs: 

Switch to National Summary

 

Summary Comparisons

 

Poll Average Categorization

BidenTrumpMargin
Trump Best250288Trump by 38
Expected341197Biden by 144
Biden Best396142Biden by 254
The tipping point state is ME-CD2 where Biden is ahead by 3.4%.

Probabilistic Win Odds

Biden: 99.4% — Tie: 0.1% — Trump: 0.4%

Biden vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

WarrenTrumpMargin
Trump Best204334Trump by 130
Expected295243Warren by 52
Warren Best347191Warren by 156
The tipping point state is FL where Warren is ahead by 0.5%.

Probabilistic Win Odds

Warren: 53.1% — Tie: 1.9% — Trump: 45.0%

Warren vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

ButtigiegTrumpMargin
Trump Best216322Trump by 106
Expected272266Buttigieg by 6
Buttigieg Best347191Buttigieg by 156
The tipping point state is PA where Buttigieg is ahead by 0.6%.

Probabilistic Win Odds

Buttigieg: 65.5% — Tie: 1.2% — Trump: 33.3%

Buttigieg vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

SandersTrumpMargin
Trump Best230308Trump by 78
Expected301237Sanders by 64
Sanders Best347191Sanders by 156
The tipping point state is FL where Sanders is ahead by 1.3%.

Probabilistic Win Odds

Sanders: 86.0% — Tie: 0.8% — Trump: 13.2%

Sanders vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

O'RourkeTrumpMargin
Trump Best200338Trump by 138
Expected246292Trump by 46
O'Rourke Best347191O'Rourke by 156
The tipping point state is FL where Trump is ahead by 0.3%.

Probabilistic Win Odds

O'Rourke: 50.5% — Tie: 1.7% — Trump: 47.8%

O'Rourke vs Trump Summary

Poll Average Categorization

HarrisTrumpMargin
Trump Best200338Trump by 138
Expected266272Trump by 6
Harris Best347191Harris by 156
The tipping point state is VA where Trump is ahead by 0.1%.

Probabilistic Win Odds

Harris: 62.3% — Tie: 1.9% — Trump: 35.8%

Harris vs Trump Summary
 

The 'Expected' scenario represents each candiate winning all the states they are ahead in. 'Best' scenarios represent the candidate winning all of the states they are ahead in, plus all of their opponent's 'weak' states.

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

 

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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