
2020 Electoral College Comparison of Best Polled Candidate Combinations Most Recent Poll (middate): 20200220 12:00 UTC Last Poll Update: 20200224 19:58 UTC 
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Poll Average Categorization   Sanders  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  206  332  Trump by 126 

Expected  302  236  Sanders by 66 

Sanders Best  374  164  Sanders by 210 

The tipping point state is PA where Sanders is ahead by 0.8%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Sanders by 50  1σ (68.27%) range:  Sanders by 104  Trump by 2  2σ (95.45%) range:  Sanders by 150  Trump by 48  3σ (99.73%) range:  Sanders by 196  Trump by 90  Odds:  Sanders: 82.7% — Tie: 1.2% — Trump: 16.1% 
 Sanders vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Warren  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  200  338  Trump by 138 

Expected  265  273  Trump by 8 

Warren Best  368  170  Warren by 198 

The tipping point state is OH where Trump is ahead by 0.5%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Trump by 4  1σ (68.27%) range:  Warren by 44  Trump by 48  2σ (95.45%) range:  Warren by 94  Trump by 88  3σ (99.73%) range:  Warren by 144  Trump by 118  Odds:  Warren: 45.0% — Tie: 2.0% — Trump: 53.0% 
 Warren vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Biden  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  222  316  Trump by 94 

Expected  368  170  Biden by 198 

Biden Best  374  164  Biden by 210 

The tipping point state is MI where Biden is ahead by 3.2%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Biden by 106  1σ (68.27%) range:  Biden by 156  Biden by 56  2σ (95.45%) range:  Biden by 198  Biden by 10  3σ (99.73%) range:  Biden by 254  Trump by 36  Odds:  Biden: 98.6% — Tie: 0.1% — Trump: 1.3% 
 Biden vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Buttigieg  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  204  334  Trump by 130 

Expected  249  289  Trump by 40 

Buttigieg Best  374  164  Buttigieg by 210 

The tipping point state is OH where Trump is ahead by 2.1%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Trump by 40  1σ (68.27%) range:  Buttigieg by 2  Trump by 72  2σ (95.45%) range:  Buttigieg by 52  Trump by 102  3σ (99.73%) range:  Buttigieg by 98  Trump by 128  Odds:  Buttigieg: 16.3% — Tie: 1.4% — Trump: 82.3% 
 Buttigieg vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Harris  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  200  338  Trump by 138 

Expected  279  259  Harris by 20 

Harris Best  363  175  Harris by 188 

The tipping point state is WI where Harris is ahead by 1.4%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Harris by 12  1σ (68.27%) range:  Harris by 54  Trump by 28  2σ (95.45%) range:  Harris by 104  Trump by 66  3σ (99.73%) range:  Harris by 152  Trump by 102  Odds:  Harris: 58.2% — Tie: 4.4% — Trump: 37.4% 
 Harris vs Trump Summary 



Poll Average Categorization   Bloomberg  Trump  Margin 

Trump Best  200  338  Trump by 138 

Expected  308  230  Bloomberg by 78 

Bloomberg Best  347  191  Bloomberg by 156 

The tipping point state is FL where Bloomberg is ahead by 0.7%. 

 Probabilistic Model  Median:  Bloomberg by 20  1σ (68.27%) range:  Bloomberg by 68  Trump by 28  2σ (95.45%) range:  Bloomberg by 112  Trump by 72  3σ (99.73%) range:  Bloomberg by 148  Trump by 114  Odds:  Bloomberg: 65.0% — Tie: 2.5% — Trump: 32.5% 
 Bloomberg vs Trump Summary 



 
 
 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 20082016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".
Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.
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