2020 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - National Summary

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2020-10-28 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2020-10-30 02:21 UTC

Actual EC Count: Biden 306 to Trump 232 - Biden by 74

Leaders:

Best Polled:

Summary View

	Harris	Margin
Probabilistic View (Indep States)
Median:	Harris by 12
1σ (68.27%) range:	Harris by 54 ----- Trump by 28
2σ (95.45%) range:	Harris by 104 ---------- Trump by 66
Odds:	Harris: 58.1% — Tie: 4.5% — Trump: 37.4%
Probabilistic View (Uniform Swing)
Median:	Harris by 20
1σ (68.27%) range:	Harris by 126 ----- Trump by 138
2σ (95.45%) range:	Harris by 188 ---------- Trump by 168
Odds:	Harris: 63.2% — Tie: 9.8% — Trump: 27.1%
Categorization View
Trump Best		Harris/Trump TIE
Expected		Harris/Trump TIE
Harris Best		Harris/Trump TIE
The tipping point state is where Harris is ahead by 0.0%.

Probabilistic View

Categorization View

State Breakdown by Category

Click on state names for polling details.

Switch to Column View

Solid Harris

District of Columbia | 3 EV| (((((82.4%)))))

Hawaii | 4 EV| (((((29.5%)))))

Vermont | 3 EV| (((((25.8%)))))

Massachusetts |11 EV| (((((25.7%)))))

New York |29 EV| (((((24.2%)))))

Rhode Island | 4 EV| (((((24.1%)))))

California |55 EV| 22.3%

Maryland |10 EV| (((((20.7%)))))

Illinois |20 EV| (((((16.3%)))))

Maine (CD1) | 1 EV| (((((15.8%)))))

Connecticut | 7 EV| ((((15.2%))))

Delaware | 3 EV| (((((15.1%)))))

New Jersey |14 EV| (((((14.0%)))))

Washington |12 EV| ((((13.8%))))

Strong Harris

Maine (All) | 2 EV| ((( 9.1%)))

Oregon | 7 EV| ((((( 8.8%)))))

New Mexico | 5 EV| ((((( 6.6%)))))

Minnesota |10 EV| ((((( 5.1%)))))

Weak Harris

Nevada | 6 EV| ((( 4.0%)))

Virginia |13 EV| (((( 3.8%))))

Colorado | 9 EV| (((( 3.5%))))

Maine (CD2) | 1 EV| ((((( 3.4%)))))

Pennsylvania |20 EV| ((( 3.3%)))

Michigan |16 EV| 3.2%

New Hampshire | 4 EV| (( 2.9%))

• Wisconsin |10 EV| (( 1.4%))

Weak Trump

Iowa | 6 EV| ((( 1.5%)))

Ohio |18 EV| (( 2.1%))

Florida |29 EV| ( 2.6%)

Georgia |16 EV| ( 2.8%)

North Carolina |15 EV| 4.0%

Strong Trump

Texas |38 EV| 6.2%

Arizona |11 EV| ( 6.9%)

Nebraska (CD2) | 1 EV| ((((( 9.7%)))))

Solid Trump

Missouri |10 EV| ((((10.3%))))

Indiana |11 EV| (((((12.9%)))))

South Carolina | 9 EV| (((13.3%)))

Montana | 3 EV| ((((13.4%))))

Louisiana | 8 EV| (((((15.5%)))))

Mississippi | 6 EV| (((((15.8%)))))

Tennessee |11 EV| (((((15.9%)))))

Arkansas | 6 EV| (((((17.1%)))))

Alaska | 3 EV| ((((18.8%))))

Nebraska (CD1) | 1 EV| (((((19.5%)))))

South Dakota | 3 EV| (((((20.1%)))))

West Virginia | 5 EV| (((((20.2%)))))

Kansas | 6 EV| (((((20.7%)))))

Kentucky | 8 EV| (((((20.8%)))))

Alabama | 9 EV| (((((22.4%)))))

North Dakota | 3 EV| (((((23.8%)))))

Nebraska (All) | 2 EV| (((((24.8%)))))

Oklahoma | 7 EV| (((((30.9%)))))

Utah | 6 EV| ((((31.0%))))

Idaho | 4 EV| (((((33.4%)))))

Wyoming | 3 EV| (((((39.7%)))))

Nebraska (CD3) | 1 EV| (((((46.6%)))))

Ten most needed polls:
Iowa, Wisconsin, Maine (CD2), Colorado, Ohio,
Virginia, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2020 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2020 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Tip Jar.

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2016 data using the methodology in the January 2019 blog post titled "Polling Error vs Final Margin".

Analysis for the 2008, 2012, and 2016 election cycles can be found here.

The number of parentheses around the averages indicates the number of "generic" results that were added to fill out the poll average.

Only results with no parentheses represent a true average of only polls asking specifically about the two candidates shown.

Weighted Average* of Time Covered by Poll Averages for these candidates is 15.7 years.

*Time covered by poll average in each state weighted by abs(1/margin) in order to give higher weight to closer states.

List of all polls for this candidate pair: HTML

Full raw data for polls used on this site: pipe delimited text or formatted webpage

Page cached at 2024-08-07 17:01:59 UTC

Original calculation time was 0.567 seconds

Page displayed at 2024-11-21 15:14:45 UTC

Page generated in 0.116 seconds