{"id":946,"date":"2019-08-18T23:32:31","date_gmt":"2019-08-18T23:32:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/?p=946"},"modified":"2019-08-18T23:32:31","modified_gmt":"2019-08-18T23:32:31","slug":"muddled-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/2019\/08\/18\/muddled-week\/","title":{"rendered":"Muddled Week"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Since <a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/2019\/08\/11\/blue-texas\/\">last week's update<\/a>,\u00a0there have been new polls in New Hampshire, North Carolina, Alaska, and Washington.<\/p>\n<p>In terms of category changes:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>NH has moved from Strong Warren to Weak Warren<\/li>\n<li>NC has moved from Weak Sanders to Weak Trump<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>That's it.<\/p>\n<p>Biden's tipping point also moved from a 3.9% lead to a 3.4% lead.<\/p>\n<p>All three of these changes are moves in Trump's direction. But if you look at the more granular changes, things are muddled, and it seems like a pretty flat week overall.<\/p>\n<p>The national \"win odds\" from the probabilistic model now look like this:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/2020ec\/comparison.php\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-947\" src=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-dem-win-odds-comp-7.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1120\" height=\"894\" srcset=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-dem-win-odds-comp-7.png 1120w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-dem-win-odds-comp-7-150x120.png 150w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-dem-win-odds-comp-7-300x239.png 300w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-dem-win-odds-comp-7-768x613.png 768w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-dem-win-odds-comp-7-1024x817.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In terms of changes since we looked last week:<\/p>\n<table class=\"wp-block-table\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Dem<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>11 Aug<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>18 Aug<\/strong><\/td>\n<td><strong>\ud835\udeab<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Biden<\/td>\n<td>99.8%<\/td>\n<td>99.7%<\/td>\n<td>-0.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Sanders<\/td>\n<td>94.8%<\/td>\n<td>94.1%<\/td>\n<td>-0.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>O'Rourke<\/td>\n<td>80.0%<\/td>\n<td>80.0%<\/td>\n<td>Flat<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Warren<\/td>\n<td>65.8%<\/td>\n<td>67.6%<\/td>\n<td>+1.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Buttigieg<\/td>\n<td>62.4%<\/td>\n<td>63.2%<\/td>\n<td>+0.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Harris<\/td>\n<td>63.7%<\/td>\n<td>62.9%<\/td>\n<td>-0.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Warren and Buttigieg improve a little bit.<\/p>\n<p>Biden, Sanders, and Harris weaken a bit.<\/p>\n<p>Harris drops to being the weakest of these six candidates against Trump.<\/p>\n<p>O'Rourke doesn't move. But that is because none of the four polls this week even bothered to include him. Oops.<\/p>\n<p>Let's look at each of these four states:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/2020ec\/statecomp.php?State=NC&amp;Days=0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-949\" src=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-north-carolina-15-e-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1120\" height=\"896\" srcset=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-north-carolina-15-e-4.png 1120w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-north-carolina-15-e-4-150x120.png 150w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-north-carolina-15-e-4-300x240.png 300w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-north-carolina-15-e-4-768x614.png 768w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-north-carolina-15-e-4-1024x819.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Biden is the only Democrat with a lead in North Carolina.<\/p>\n<p>Before the Civitas poll added this week, Sanders had a very narrow lead in North Carolina as well. But although the Civitas poll was RELEASED this week, it had an earlier mid-date than the SurveyUSA poll that had given Sanders that lead last week, and so the Civitas poll (which showed a Trump lead) essentially erased that change from the chart.<\/p>\n<p>The rest of the Democrats all lose to Trump, but narrowly.<\/p>\n<p>The trends all show the Democrats generally improving as more polls come in though.<\/p>\n<p>Except for Harris. She is getting weaker in North Carolina.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/2020ec\/statecomp.php?State=WA&amp;Days=0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-952\" src=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-washington-12-ev-po.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1120\" height=\"896\" srcset=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-washington-12-ev-po.png 1120w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-washington-12-ev-po-150x120.png 150w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-washington-12-ev-po-300x240.png 300w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-washington-12-ev-po-768x614.png 768w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-washington-12-ev-po-1024x819.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Zogby poll added this week is the first general election polling for Washington State. Washington is a very blue state. But all five Democrats polled move the polling average to be even bluer than the 2000-2016 historical average.<\/p>\n<p>It is of note that this is one of the very few states where Sanders does better against Trump than Biden does.<\/p>\n<p>As usual, though, those two do noticeably better than the other Democrats.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/2020ec\/statecomp.php?State=NH&amp;Days=0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-948\" src=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-new-hampshire-4-ev.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1120\" height=\"896\" srcset=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-new-hampshire-4-ev.png 1120w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-new-hampshire-4-ev-150x120.png 150w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-new-hampshire-4-ev-300x240.png 300w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-new-hampshire-4-ev-768x614.png 768w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-new-hampshire-4-ev-1024x819.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Biden and Sanders have strong leads over Trump in New Hampshire. The other Democrats also lead, but by more narrow margins. The general trend as new polling comes in is toward the Democrats though.<\/p>\n<p>Except for Warren's recent move in the other direction.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/2020ec\/statecomp.php?Days=0&amp;State=AK\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-950\" src=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-alaska-3-ev-poll-co.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1120\" height=\"896\" srcset=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-alaska-3-ev-poll-co.png 1120w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-alaska-3-ev-poll-co-150x120.png 150w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-alaska-3-ev-poll-co-300x240.png 300w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-alaska-3-ev-poll-co-768x614.png 768w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/2020-alaska-3-ev-poll-co-1024x819.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>These are the very first Alaska polls this cycle.<\/p>\n<p>Alaska is a very red state. But all five Democrats polled improve their Election Graphs averages over the historical average of the 2000-2016 elections that I use as a starting point before there are any polls.<\/p>\n<p>As usual, Biden does best against Trump, followed by Sanders.<\/p>\n<p>But Alaska is still a very red state.<\/p>\n<p>And that is where things stand this week.<\/p>\n<p>443.0 days until polls start to close.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>For more information:<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>This post is an update based on the data on the <a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/2020ec\/\">Election Graphs Electoral College 2020 page<\/a>. Election Graphs tracks a poll-based estimate of the Electoral College. The charts, graphs, and maps in the post above are all as of the time of this post. Click through on any image to go to a page with the current interactive versions of that chart, along with additional details.<\/p>\n<p>Follow <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/electiongraphs\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@ElectionGraphs<\/a> on Twitter or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/electiongraphs\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Election Graphs<\/a> on Facebook to see announcements of updates. For those interested in individual poll updates, follow <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/eleccollpolls\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@ElecCollPolls<\/a> on Twitter for all the polls as I add them. If you find the information in these posts informative or useful, please consider visiting the <a href=\"http:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/donate.php\">donation page<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since last week's update,\u00a0there have been new polls in New Hampshire, North Carolina, Alaska, and Washington. In terms of category changes: NH has moved from Strong Warren to Weak Warren NC has moved from Weak Sanders to Weak Trump That's it. Biden's tipping point also moved from a 3.9% lead to a 3.4% lead. All &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/2019\/08\/18\/muddled-week\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \"Muddled Week\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[65,38,59,43,35,47,41,42,39,40,64],"class_list":["post-946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2020-electoral-college","tag-alaska","tag-biden","tag-buttigieg","tag-harris","tag-new-hampshire","tag-north-carolina","tag-orourke","tag-sanders","tag-trump","tag-warren","tag-washington"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/946","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=946"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/946\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":959,"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/946\/revisions\/959"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}