{"id":634,"date":"2019-03-29T19:22:44","date_gmt":"2019-03-29T19:22:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/?p=634"},"modified":"2019-03-29T19:22:44","modified_gmt":"2019-03-29T19:22:44","slug":"biden-looking-strong-in-pennsylvania","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/2019\/03\/29\/biden-looking-strong-in-pennsylvania\/","title":{"rendered":"Biden Looking Strong in Pennsylvania"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Since the <a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/2019\/03\/27\/sanders-and-orourke-in-the-midwest\/\">last update<\/a>,\u00a0Emerson released a new poll <a href=\"http:\/\/emersonpolling.com\/2019\/03\/28\/pennsylvania-2020-biden-leads-democratic-field-biden-and-sanders-lead-trump-by-10-points-in-general-election\/\">in Pennsylvania<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This\u00a0new poll resulted in the following changes:<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/2020ec\/?Dem=Biden&amp;Rep=Trump&amp;Days=0&amp;Format=spec\">Biden vs. Trump<\/a>:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Biden vs. Trump state category change: PA has moved from Weak Biden to Strong Biden [<a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/2020ec\/polldata.php?Dem=Biden&amp;Rep=Trump&amp;State=PA&amp;ts=1553832963\">Chart<\/a>]<\/li>\n<li>Trump best case vs. Biden has changed: Biden 230 to Trump 308 -&gt; Biden 250 to Trump 288 [<a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/2020ec\/?Dem=Biden&amp;Rep=Trump&amp;ts=1553833207\">Chart<\/a>]<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I'm starting to feel like I keep repeating myself, but the story of the state level polls so far continues to be Biden doing better than other Democrats against Trump. The newest update is just the latest poll to move things in that direction.<\/p>\n<p>Looking specifically at Biden, the \"envelope\" looks like this at the moment:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/2020ec\/?Dem=Biden&amp;Rep=Trump&amp;Days=0&amp;Format=spec\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-638\" src=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-electoral-college-t-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1120\" height=\"894\" srcset=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-electoral-college-t-4.png 1120w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-electoral-college-t-4-150x120.png 150w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-electoral-college-t-4-300x239.png 300w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-electoral-college-t-4-768x613.png 768w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-electoral-college-t-4-1024x817.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The upper side of that chart shows the optimistic side for Trump dropping from a 106 electoral vote win to only a 38 electoral win as more and more polls show Biden with more strength than the simple average of the last five elections would have predicted.<\/p>\n<p>Looking at some of the other candidates as well, we see this trend is not universal at all.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/2020ec\/comparison.php\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-636\" src=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-rep-best-case-comp-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1120\" height=\"894\" srcset=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-rep-best-case-comp-1.png 1120w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-rep-best-case-comp-1-150x120.png 150w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-rep-best-case-comp-1-300x239.png 300w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-rep-best-case-comp-1-768x613.png 768w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-rep-best-case-comp-1-1024x817.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Biden and Warren have improved in this view, while Sanders and O'Rourke have gotten weaker. Booker hasn't yet moved this metric.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, let's look at just Pennsylvania:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/2020ec\/statecomp.php?State=PA&amp;Days=0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-639\" src=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-pres-poll-comp-penn-copy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1120\" height=\"896\" srcset=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-pres-poll-comp-penn-copy.png 1120w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-pres-poll-comp-penn-copy-150x120.png 150w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-pres-poll-comp-penn-copy-300x240.png 300w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-pres-poll-comp-penn-copy-768x614.png 768w, https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/2020-pres-poll-comp-penn-copy-1024x819.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 709px) 85vw, (max-width: 909px) 67vw, (max-width: 1362px) 62vw, 840px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Biden ahead of the pack as usual, and the only one in \"strong\" territory against Trump. Sanders and Warren are also stronger than the \"starting point.\" Nobody has polled Booker in Pennsylvania so far. O'Rourke though is looking weaker.<\/p>\n<p>585.2 days until polls start to close.<\/p>\n<h5><strong>For more information:<\/strong><\/h5>\n<p>This post is an update based on the data on the <a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/2020ec\/\">Election Graphs Electoral College 2020 page<\/a>. Election Graphs tracks a poll-based estimate of the Electoral College. The charts, graphs, and maps in the post above are all as of the time of this post. Click through on any image to go to a page with the current interactive versions of that chart, along with additional details.<\/p>\n<p>Follow <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/electiongraphs\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@ElectionGraphs<\/a> on Twitter or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/electiongraphs\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Election Graphs<\/a> on Facebook to see announcements of updates. For those interested in individual poll updates, follow <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/eleccollpolls\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">@ElecCollPolls<\/a> on Twitter for all the polls as I add them. If you find the information in these posts informative or useful, please consider visiting the <a href=\"http:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/donate.php\">donation page<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since the last update,\u00a0Emerson released a new poll in Pennsylvania. This\u00a0new poll resulted in the following changes: Biden vs. Trump: Biden vs. Trump state category change: PA has moved from Weak Biden to Strong Biden [Chart] Trump best case vs. Biden has changed: Biden 230 to Trump 308 -&gt; Biden 250 to Trump 288 [Chart] &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/2019\/03\/29\/biden-looking-strong-in-pennsylvania\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \"Biden Looking Strong in Pennsylvania\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[38,27,39],"class_list":["post-634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2020-electoral-college","tag-biden","tag-pennsylvania","tag-trump"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/634","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=634"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/634\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":643,"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/634\/revisions\/643"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=634"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=634"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/electiongraphs.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=634"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}