2024 Electoral College - Biden vs Trump - Georgia

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2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Georgia [16 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2023-11-29 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2023-12-06 01:48 UTC

Best Polled:

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Biden		Trump

Probabilities

Chances of winning given historical Election Graphs poll average accuracy:

Biden		Trump
/td>

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2023-11-29 12:00	JL Partners [2]	44.0%	10.0%	46.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2023-11-27 2023-12-01	2023-12-04 2023-12-05 06:53
2023-11-29 12:00	JL Partners w/4P [2]	36.0%	25.0%	39.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-11-27 2023-12-01	2023-12-04 2023-12-05 06:50
2023-11-28 12:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P	35.0%	20.0%	45.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2023-11-27 2023-11-29	2023-12-05 2023-12-06 01:48
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult w/4P [2]	34.0%	23.0%	43.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 19:52
2023-11-03 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	41.0%	11.0%	48.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2023-10-30 2023-11-07	2023-11-10 2023-11-10 19:49
2023-11-02 00:00	Emerson RV [2]	39.7%	13.4%	46.9%	Trump by 7.2%	2023-10-30 2023-11-04	2023-11-09 2023-11-10 02:00
2023-11-02 00:00	Emerson LV [2]	41.4%	9.5%	49.1%	Trump by 7.7%	2023-10-30 2023-11-04	2023-11-09 2023-11-10 01:57
2023-10-30 12:00	University of Georgia	44.0%	11.0%	45.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2023-10-26 2023-11-03	2023-11-08 2023-11-09 01:17

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Biden	<>	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV w/3P [6]	31.0%	31.0%	38.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-07 16:48
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV w/3P [6]	29.0%	35.0%	36.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-07 16:45
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV Definitely [6]	32.0%	30.0%	38.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:24
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena LV w/Lean [6]	44.0%	7.0%	49.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 17:21
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV Definitely [6]	29.0%	35.0%	36.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 15:55
2023-10-28 12:00	Siena RV w/Lean [6]	43.0%	8.0%	49.0%	Trump by 6.0%	2023-10-22 2023-11-03	2023-11-05 2023-11-05 15:52
2023-10-11 00:00	Zogby w/4P [2]	36.0%	19.0%	45.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2023-10-09 2023-10-12	2023-10-28 2023-10-28 20:52
2023-10-11 00:00	Zogby [2]	49.0%	0.0%	51.0%	Trump by 2.0%	2023-10-09 2023-10-12	2023-10-28 2023-10-28 20:49
2023-10-08 00:00	Morning Consult	43.0%	9.0%	48.0%	Trump by 5.0%	2023-10-05 2023-10-10	2023-10-19 2023-10-19 15:48
2023-10-08 00:00	Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2]	38.0%	21.0%	41.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-10-07 2023-10-08	2023-10-15 2023-10-16 02:10
2023-10-08 00:00	Redfield & Wilton [2]	40.0%	17.0%	43.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2023-10-07 2023-10-08	2023-10-15 2023-10-16 02:07
2023-09-10 00:00	Rasmussen	38.0%	15.0%	47.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2023-09-08 2023-09-11	2023-09-15 2023-09-15 16:07
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime w/NL [2]	36.0%	19.0%	45.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:22
2023-06-21 12:00	Prime [2]	48.0%	0.0%	52.0%	Trump by 4.0%	2023-06-14 2023-06-28	2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:41
2023-06-18 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies Definitely [2]	41.0%	19.0%	40.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-06-17 2023-06-19	2023-06-20 2023-08-11 06:12
2023-06-18 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies Total [2]	47.0%	9.0%	44.0%	Biden by 3.0%	2023-06-17 2023-06-19	2023-06-20 2023-06-21 06:11
2023-06-06 12:00	Cygnal	41.0%	17.0%	42.0%	Trump by 1.0%	2023-06-05 2023-06-07	2023-06-09 2023-06-09 17:06
2023-05-16 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies	44.0%	13.0%	43.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-05-15 2023-05-17	2023-05-19 2023-05-19 16:22
2023-04-26 12:00	Public Opinion Strategies	44.0%	13.0%	43.0%	Biden by 1.0%	2023-04-25 2023-04-27	2023-05-02 2023-05-02 14:46
2022-11-29 12:00	Emerson	43.5%	13.4%	43.1%	Biden by 0.4%	2022-11-28 2022-11-30	2022-12-01 2023-03-24 06:38
2022-11-23 12:00	UMass Lowell	47.0%	10.0%	43.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2022-11-18 2022-11-28	2022-12-05 2023-03-24 06:57
2022-11-04 12:00	Targoz LV [2]	43.0%	5.0%	52.0%	Trump by 9.0%	2022-11-02 2022-11-06	2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:36
2022-11-04 12:00	Targoz RV [2]	41.0%	7.0%	52.0%	Trump by 11.0%	2022-11-02 2022-11-06	2022-11-07 2023-03-24 03:32
2022-10-30 00:00	Emerson	43.8%	9.3%	46.9%	Trump by 3.1%	2022-10-28 2022-10-31	2022-11-03 2023-03-24 02:56
2022-10-24 00:00	Rasmussen	39.0%	14.0%	47.0%	Trump by 8.0%	2022-10-23 2022-10-24	2022-10-27 2023-03-23 05:30
2022-10-07 00:00	Emerson	43.4%	11.4%	45.2%	Trump by 1.8%	2022-10-06 2022-10-07	2022-10-11 2023-03-23 03:21
2022-09-04 00:00	Echelon Definitely [2]	38.0%	28.0%	34.0%	Biden by 4.0%	2022-08-31 2022-09-07	2022-09-13 2023-07-27 02:58
2022-09-04 00:00	Echelon Total [2]	47.0%	8.0%	45.0%	Biden by 2.0%	2022-08-31 2022-09-07	2022-09-13 2023-03-22 00:53
2022-08-29 00:00	Emerson	45.8%	3.5%	50.7%	Trump by 4.9%	2022-08-28 2022-08-29	2022-08-30 2023-03-21 05:10
2022-07-23 12:00	PEM	39.9%	12.0%	48.0%	Trump by 8.1%	2022-07-22 2022-07-24	2022-07-28 2023-03-21 02:36
2022-06-08 00:00	ECU	40.2%	13.1%	46.7%	Trump by 6.5%	2022-06-06 2022-06-09	2022-06-14 2023-03-20 16:45
2022-02-16 00:00	Blueprint	36.3%	13.8%	49.9%	Trump by 13.6%	2022-02-15 2022-02-16	2022-03-08 2023-03-20 14:31
2021-11-14 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Definitely [2]	40.0%	17.0%	43.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2021-11-11 2021-11-16	2021-11-21 2023-07-04 00:43
2021-11-14 00:00	Fabrizio Lee Total [2]	45.0%	7.0%	48.0%	Trump by 3.0%	2021-11-11 2021-11-16	2021-11-21 2023-03-20 13:14
2020-11-03 12:00	Election2020	49.5%	1.2%	49.3%	DEM by 0.2%	2020-11-03 2020-11-03	2020-11-03 2023-03-15 05:31
2016-11-08 12:00	Election2016	45.6%	3.6%	50.8%	REP by 5.1%	2016-11-08 2016-11-08	2016-11-08 2019-02-18 06:28
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	45.5%	1.2%	53.3%	REP by 7.8%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:23
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	47.0%	0.8%	52.2%	REP by 5.2%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-25 01:14
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	41.4%	0.7%	58.0%	REP by 16.6%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 05:37
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	43.0%	2.4%	54.7%	REP by 11.7%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-09 06:00
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	45.8%	7.2%	47.0%	REP by 1.2%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:45
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	43.5%	13.7%	42.9%	DEM by 0.6%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:18
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	39.5%	0.8%	59.8%	REP by 20.3%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 06:27
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	39.8%	0.0%	60.2%	REP by 20.4%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:27
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	55.8%	3.3%	41.0%	DEM by 14.8%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:27

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

For more information, read the FAQ.

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