2024 Electoral College

Harris vs Trump - Minnesota [10 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-11-03 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-11-05 05:41 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Harris vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 Minnesota [10 EV] Poll Average

 

Harris Trump
 

 

2024 Minnesota [10 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Harris Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Harris Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-11-03 00:00

AtlasIntel [2]

49.2%

3.6%

47.2%

Harris
by 2.0%

2024-11-01
2024-11-04

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 05:41

2024-11-03 00:00

AtlasIntel w/4P [2]

48.9%

4.3%

46.8%

Harris
by 2.1%

2024-11-01
2024-11-04

2024-11-04
2024-11-05 05:30

2024-11-03 00:00

Research Co

53.0%

2.0%

45.0%

Harris
by 8.0%

2024-11-02
2024-11-03

2024-11-04
2024-11-04 19:02

2024-10-29 12:00

Chism Strategies w/5P

48.3%

8.8%

42.9%

Harris
by 5.4%

2024-10-28
2024-10-30

2024-11-02
2024-11-02 21:09

2024-10-26 12:00

SurveyUSA

51.0%

6.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 8.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-28

2024-10-29
2024-10-30 00:35

2024-10-25 12:00

Rasmussen

50.0%

3.0%

47.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-10-24
2024-10-26

2024-10-30
2024-10-31 09:50

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterHarris<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-10-21 00:00

ActiVote

52.3%

0.0%

47.7%

Harris
by 4.6%

2024-10-09
2024-11-01

2024-11-02
2024-11-02 17:07

2024-10-19 12:00

Embold

47.7%

7.2%

45.1%

Harris
by 2.6%

2024-10-16
2024-10-22

2024-10-28
2024-10-28 21:04

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES LV [2]

53.0%

4.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 10.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:29

2024-10-13 12:00

CCES All [2]

52.0%

4.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 8.0%

2024-10-01
2024-10-25

2024-10-29
2024-10-29 21:28

2024-10-13 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

51.0%

6.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 8.0%

2024-10-12
2024-10-14

2024-10-16
2024-10-17 05:27

2024-10-03 00:00

Democracy Institute

48.0%

8.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 4.0%

2024-10-02
2024-10-03

2024-10-06
2024-10-08 06:51

2024-09-30 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

51.0%

6.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 8.0%

2024-09-27
2024-10-02

2024-10-07
2024-10-08 03:29

2024-09-25 00:00

ActiVote

52.9%

0.0%

47.1%

Harris
by 5.8%

2024-09-10
2024-10-09

2024-10-11
2024-10-11 18:52

2024-09-25 00:00

SurveyUSA

50.0%

6.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-09-23
2024-09-26

2024-09-26
2024-09-27 21:04

2024-09-21 00:00

Rasmussen

49.0%

5.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-09-19
2024-09-22

2024-09-29
2024-09-30 11:08

2024-09-18 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

50.0%

6.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-09-16
2024-09-19

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 17:50

2024-09-17 12:00

Mason-Dixon

48.0%

9.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-09-16
2024-09-18

2024-09-23
2024-09-23 16:43

2024-09-14 00:00

Morning Consult

49.6%

7.4%

43.0%

Harris
by 6.6%

2024-09-09
2024-09-18

2024-09-19
2024-09-20 04:28

2024-09-08 00:00

Redfield & Wilton

51.0%

5.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 7.0%

2024-09-06
2024-09-09

2024-09-10
2024-09-11 00:58

2024-09-06 12:00

Embold

48.8%

6.6%

44.6%

Harris
by 4.2%

2024-09-04
2024-09-08

2024-09-13
2024-09-13 16:41

2024-09-04 00:00

Morning Consult

51.0%

5.0%

44.0%

Harris
by 7.0%

2024-08-30
2024-09-08

2024-09-09
2024-09-10 06:29

2024-08-28 12:00

SurveyUSA

48.0%

9.0%

43.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-08-27
2024-08-29

2024-08-30
2024-08-31 02:08

2024-08-27 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/4P

51.0%

7.0%

42.0%

Harris
by 9.0%

2024-08-25
2024-08-28

2024-08-30
2024-08-30 17:54

2024-08-14 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

47.0%

13.0%

40.0%

Harris
by 7.0%

2024-08-12
2024-08-15

2024-08-19
2024-08-19 19:05

2024-08-02 00:00

Redfield & Wilton w/3P

46.0%

13.0%

41.0%

Harris
by 5.0%

2024-07-31
2024-08-03

2024-08-06
2024-08-06 16:49

2024-07-24 12:00

SurveyUSA

50.0%

10.0%

40.0%

Harris
by 10.0%

2024-07-23
2024-07-25

2024-07-26
2024-07-27 01:39

2024-07-23 12:00

Beacon/Shaw [2]

52.0%

2.0%

46.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-27 01:30

2024-07-23 12:00

Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2]

47.0%

12.0%

41.0%

Harris
by 6.0%

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-27 01:29

2024-07-23 12:00

Redfield & Wilton w/5P

44.0%

15.0%

41.0%

Harris
by 3.0%

2024-07-22
2024-07-24

2024-07-26
2024-07-26 14:35

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

52.4%

2.3%

45.3%

DEM
by 7.1%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 07:04

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

46.4%

8.6%

44.9%

DEM
by 1.5%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:05

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.7%

2.4%

45.0%

DEM
by 7.7%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:38

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

54.1%

2.1%

43.8%

DEM
by 10.2%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:07

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

51.1%

1.3%

47.6%

DEM
by 3.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:23

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

47.9%

6.7%

45.4%

DEM
by 2.5%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:54

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

51.1%

13.9%

35.0%

DEM
by 16.1%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 15:38

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.5%

24.7%

31.9%

DEM
by 11.6%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:27

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

52.9%

1.2%

45.9%

DEM
by 7.0%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 11:09

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

49.7%

0.7%

49.5%

DEM
by 0.2%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:45

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

46.5%

10.9%

42.6%

DEM
by 3.9%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:00

 

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and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

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