2024 Electoral College

Biden vs Trump - Minnesota [10 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2024-06-16 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2024-07-11 15:00 UTC

Leaders:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Biden vs Trump National Summary

 

2024 Minnesota [10 EV] Poll Average

 

Biden Trump
 

 

2024 Minnesota [10 EV] Probabilities

 

 

Biden Trump
 

 

If the election was now:

 

Biden Trump
/td> 

State win probabilities are derived from analyzing how Election Graphs poll averages at similar times before the election have historically deviated from actual election results from 2008 to 2020.

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-06-16 00:00

Emerson w/5P [3]

40.9%

17.5%

41.6%

Trump
by 0.7%

2024-06-13
2024-06-18

2024-06-20
2024-06-21 04:12

2024-06-16 00:00

Emerson w/Lean [3]

51.0%

0.0%

49.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-06-13
2024-06-18

2024-06-20
2024-06-21 04:10

2024-06-16 00:00

Emerson [3]

45.2%

9.9%

44.9%

Biden
by 0.3%

2024-06-13
2024-06-18

2024-06-20
2024-06-21 04:09

2024-06-14 12:00

SurveyUSA

47.0%

12.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 6.0%

2024-06-12
2024-06-16

2024-06-20
2024-06-21 05:10

2024-06-12 12:00

Innovative Research w/3P

47.0%

14.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2024-06-07
2024-06-17

2024-07-05
2024-07-11 15:00

2024-06-10 12:00

McLaughlin [3]

45.0%

8.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 2.0%

2024-06-09
2024-06-11

2024-06-14
2024-06-15 05:22

2024-06-10 12:00

McLaughlin w/4P [3]

39.0%

17.0%

44.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-06-09
2024-06-11

2024-06-14
2024-06-15 05:20

2024-06-10 12:00

McLaughlin w/6P [3]

37.0%

22.0%

41.0%

Trump
by 4.0%

2024-06-09
2024-06-11

2024-06-14
2024-06-15 05:14

2024-06-04 12:00

Mason-Dixon w/3P

45.0%

14.0%

41.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2024-06-03
2024-06-05

2024-06-10
2024-06-10 17:03

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterBiden<>TrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2024-05-10 00:00

SurveyUSA

44.0%

14.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-05-08
2024-05-11

2024-05-14
2024-05-15 20:34

2024-04-30 12:00

McLaughlin [3]

46.0%

5.0%

49.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2024-04-29
2024-05-01

2024-05-07
2024-05-08 06:37

2024-04-30 12:00

McLaughlin w/4P [3]

41.0%

13.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2024-04-29
2024-05-01

2024-05-07
2024-05-08 06:35

2024-04-30 12:00

McLaughlin w/6P [3]

40.0%

20.0%

40.0%

TIED

2024-04-29
2024-05-01

2024-05-07
2024-05-08 06:30

2024-04-17 12:00

Zogby

46.4%

9.8%

43.8%

Biden
by 2.6%

2024-04-13
2024-04-21

2024-04-30
2024-05-06 04:59

2024-04-05 12:00

SurveyUSA

44.0%

14.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 2.0%

2024-04-03
2024-04-07

2024-04-09
2024-04-10 02:43

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet LV [2]

46.3%

15.0%

38.7%

Biden
by 7.6%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 22:16

2024-03-02 00:00

Mainstreet RV [2]

46.3%

15.0%

38.7%

Biden
by 7.6%

2024-02-29
2024-03-03

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 22:12

2024-02-26 00:00

SurveyUSA

42.0%

20.0%

38.0%

Biden
by 4.0%

2024-02-23
2024-02-28

2024-03-07
2024-03-07 22:47

2024-01-27 00:00

SurveyUSA

42.0%

19.0%

39.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2024-01-24
2024-01-29

2024-02-01
2024-02-02 03:52

2023-11-21 00:00

Big Data LV w/5P [6]

37.2%

25.9%

36.9%

Biden
by 0.3%

2023-11-18
2023-11-23

2023-11-23
2024-04-26 23:25

2023-11-21 00:00

Big Data Total w/5P [6]

34.6%

29.3%

36.1%

Trump
by 1.5%

2023-11-18
2023-11-23

2023-11-23
2024-04-26 23:24

2023-11-21 00:00

Big Data LV w/3P [6]

37.9%

26.5%

35.6%

Biden
by 2.3%

2023-11-18
2023-11-23

2023-11-23
2024-04-26 23:20

2023-11-21 00:00

Big Data Total w/3P [6]

35.3%

29.8%

34.9%

Biden
by 0.4%

2023-11-18
2023-11-23

2023-11-23
2024-04-26 23:18

2023-11-21 00:00

Big Data LV [6]

39.0%

22.4%

38.6%

Biden
by 0.4%

2023-11-18
2023-11-23

2023-11-23
2024-04-26 23:16

2023-11-21 00:00

Big Data Total [6]

36.6%

25.6%

37.8%

Trump
by 1.2%

2023-11-18
2023-11-23

2023-11-23
2024-04-26 23:13

2023-11-16 00:00

Embold

45.0%

13.0%

42.0%

Biden
by 3.0%

2023-11-14
2023-11-17

2023-11-29
2023-12-01 06:16

2023-10-03 00:00

Emerson

39.8%

22.4%

37.8%

Biden
by 2.0%

2023-10-01
2023-10-04

2023-10-16
2023-10-17 00:52

2023-05-07 12:00

Public Opinion Strategies

48.0%

12.0%

40.0%

Biden
by 8.0%

2023-05-06
2023-05-08

2023-05-12
2023-05-12 16:56

2020-11-03 12:00

Election2020

52.4%

2.3%

45.3%

DEM
by 7.1%

2020-11-03
2020-11-03

2020-11-03
2023-03-15 07:04

2016-11-08 12:00

Election2016

46.4%

8.6%

44.9%

DEM
by 1.5%

2016-11-08
2016-11-08

2016-11-08
2019-02-20 03:05

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.7%

2.4%

45.0%

DEM
by 7.7%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:38

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

54.1%

2.1%

43.8%

DEM
by 10.2%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:07

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

51.1%

1.3%

47.6%

DEM
by 3.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:23

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

47.9%

6.7%

45.4%

DEM
by 2.5%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:54

1996-11-05 12:00

Election1996

51.1%

13.9%

35.0%

DEM
by 16.1%

1996-11-05
1996-11-05

1996-11-05
2014-02-16 15:38

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.5%

24.7%

31.9%

DEM
by 11.6%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:27

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

52.9%

1.2%

45.9%

DEM
by 7.0%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 11:09

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

49.7%

0.7%

49.5%

DEM
by 0.2%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:45

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

46.5%

10.9%

42.6%

DEM
by 3.9%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:00

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results,
and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races once they begin.

 

Follow @ElectionGraphs@newsie.social on Mastodon.

Like Election Graphs on Facebook.

Read the Election Graphs blog posts.

 

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email feedback@electiongraphs.com

 

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Donation Page.

 

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".

 

For more information, read the FAQ.

 

Page cached at 2024-12-07 04:44:53 UTC

Original calculation time was 0.374 seconds

 

Page displayed at 2024-12-07 14:56:30 UTC

Page generated in 0.155 seconds