Middate/Time | Pollster | Biden | <> | Trump | Margin | Start/End | Released/Entered |
---|
2024-03-21 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee Total [4] | 43.0% | 8.0% | 49.0% | Trump by 6.0% | 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 | 2024-04-02 2024-04-03 05:28 |
2024-03-21 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee Definitely [4] | 36.0% | 21.0% | 43.0% | Trump by 7.0% | 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 | 2024-04-02 2024-04-03 05:25 |
2024-03-21 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee w/4P [4] | 38.0% | 17.0% | 45.0% | Trump by 7.0% | 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 | 2024-04-02 2024-04-03 05:23 |
2024-03-21 00:00 | Fabrizio Lee w/6P [4] | 34.0% | 24.0% | 42.0% | Trump by 8.0% | 2024-03-17 2024-03-24 | 2024-04-02 2024-04-03 05:15 |
2024-03-16 00:00 | Redfield & Wilton w/4P | 39.0% | 18.0% | 43.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2024-03-14 2024-03-17 | 2024-03-25 2024-03-25 18:58 |
2024-03-13 12:00 | YouGov | 44.0% | 11.0% | 45.0% | Trump by 1.0% | 2024-03-07 2024-03-19 | 2024-03-27 2024-04-19 22:50 |
2024-03-13 00:00 | Marist w/3P [2] | 43.0% | 11.0% | 46.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2024-03-11 2024-03-14 | 2024-03-20 2024-03-21 02:23 |
2024-03-13 00:00 | Marist [2] | 48.0% | 1.0% | 51.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2024-03-11 2024-03-14 | 2024-03-20 2024-03-21 02:21 |
2024-03-10 12:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 43.0% | 8.0% | 49.0% | Trump by 6.0% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-12 | 2024-03-26 2024-03-26 11:21 |
2024-03-10 12:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 39.0% | 16.0% | 45.0% | Trump by 6.0% | 2024-03-08 2024-03-12 | 2024-03-26 2024-03-26 11:18 |
2024-03-07 00:00 | Cygnal Total [2] | 39.8% | 15.0% | 45.2% | Trump by 5.4% | 2024-03-06 2024-03-07 | 2024-03-12 2024-03-13 05:14 |
2024-03-07 00:00 | Cygnal Definitely [2] | 33.2% | 25.7% | 41.1% | Trump by 7.9% | 2024-03-06 2024-03-07 | 2024-03-12 2024-03-13 05:11 |
2024-03-06 12:00 | SurveyUSA | 45.0% | 5.0% | 50.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2024-03-03 2024-03-09 | 2024-03-12 2024-03-13 05:18 |
2024-03-02 00:00 | Mainstreet LV [2] | 40.2% | 5.9% | 53.9% | Trump by 13.7% | 2024-02-29 2024-03-03 | 2024-03-07 2024-03-07 22:19 |
2024-03-02 00:00 | Mainstreet RV [2] | 40.1% | 7.9% | 52.0% | Trump by 11.9% | 2024-02-29 2024-03-03 | 2024-03-07 2024-03-07 22:17 |
2024-02-15 12:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 41.0% | 9.0% | 50.0% | Trump by 9.0% | 2024-02-12 2024-02-18 | 2024-02-28 2024-03-01 06:52 |
2024-02-15 12:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 35.0% | 20.0% | 45.0% | Trump by 10.0% | 2024-02-12 2024-02-18 | 2024-02-28 2024-03-01 06:50 |
2024-02-15 12:00 | Emerson w/5P [2] | 36.7% | 17.4% | 45.9% | Trump by 9.2% | 2024-02-14 2024-02-16 | 2024-02-21 2024-02-22 02:44 |
2024-02-15 12:00 | Emerson [2] | 43.7% | 9.7% | 46.6% | Trump by 2.9% | 2024-02-14 2024-02-16 | 2024-02-21 2024-02-22 02:41 |
2024-02-11 00:00 | ECU w/5P | 43.6% | 9.7% | 46.7% | Trump by 3.1% | 2024-02-09 2024-02-12 | 2024-02-16 2024-02-17 17:02 |
2024-02-10 12:00 | Beacon/Shaw [2] | 45.0% | 5.0% | 50.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2024-02-08 2024-02-12 | 2024-02-14 2024-02-16 03:32 |
2024-02-10 12:00 | Beacon/Shaw w/5P [2] | 37.0% | 17.0% | 46.0% | Trump by 9.0% | 2024-02-08 2024-02-12 | 2024-02-14 2024-02-16 03:30 |
2024-02-02 00:00 | North Star w/3P | 32.0% | 29.0% | 39.0% | Trump by 7.0% | 2024-01-30 2024-02-04 | 2024-02-06 2024-02-09 02:45 |
2024-01-29 00:00 | Meredith | 39.0% | 17.0% | 44.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2024-01-26 2024-01-31 | 2024-02-05 2024-02-06 01:13 |
2024-01-19 00:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 39.0% | 12.0% | 49.0% | Trump by 10.0% | 2024-01-16 2024-01-21 | 2024-01-31 2024-01-31 19:29 |
2024-01-19 00:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 32.0% | 23.0% | 45.0% | Trump by 13.0% | 2024-01-16 2024-01-21 | 2024-01-31 2024-01-31 19:26 |
2023-12-29 12:00 | Redfield & Wilton w/3P | 33.0% | 30.0% | 37.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2023-12-28 2023-12-30 | 2024-01-08 2024-01-08 22:43 |
2023-12-02 00:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 40.0% | 11.0% | 49.0% | Trump by 9.0% | 2023-11-27 2023-12-06 | 2023-12-14 2023-12-15 02:01 |
2023-12-02 00:00 | Morning Consult w/5P [2] | 34.0% | 21.0% | 45.0% | Trump by 11.0% | 2023-11-27 2023-12-06 | 2023-12-14 2023-12-15 01:58 |
2023-11-28 12:00 | Redfield & Wilton w/3P | 35.0% | 21.0% | 44.0% | Trump by 9.0% | 2023-11-27 2023-11-29 | 2023-12-05 2023-12-06 01:57 |
2023-11-05 12:00 | Martin and Blaine | 43.0% | 11.0% | 46.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2023-11-04 2023-11-06 | 2023-11-16 2024-04-19 23:11 |
2023-11-03 12:00 | Meredith | 40.0% | 21.0% | 39.0% | Biden by 1.0% | 2023-11-01 2023-11-05 | 2023-11-13 2023-11-13 20:19 |
2023-11-03 12:00 | Morning Consult w/4P [2] | 33.0% | 25.0% | 42.0% | Trump by 9.0% | 2023-10-30 2023-11-07 | 2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:16 |
2023-11-03 12:00 | Morning Consult [2] | 39.0% | 13.0% | 48.0% | Trump by 9.0% | 2023-10-30 2023-11-07 | 2023-11-10 2023-11-10 20:13 |
2023-10-08 00:00 | Morning Consult | 43.0% | 10.0% | 47.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2023-10-05 2023-10-10 | 2023-10-19 2023-10-19 16:03 |
2023-10-08 00:00 | Redfield & Wilton w/3P [2] | 38.0% | 21.0% | 41.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2023-10-07 2023-10-08 | 2023-10-15 2023-10-16 04:53 |
2023-10-08 00:00 | Redfield & Wilton [2] | 38.0% | 19.0% | 43.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2023-10-07 2023-10-08 | 2023-10-15 2023-10-16 04:49 |
2023-09-03 12:00 | Carolina Forward | 42.0% | 12.0% | 46.0% | Trump by 4.0% | 2023-09-01 2023-09-05 | 2023-09-11 2023-09-11 18:50 |
2023-06-21 12:00 | Prime w/NL [2] | 37.0% | 18.0% | 45.0% | Trump by 8.0% | 2023-06-14 2023-06-28 | 2023-07-13 2023-08-15 14:26 |
2023-06-21 12:00 | Prime [2] | 46.0% | 0.0% | 54.0% | Trump by 8.0% | 2023-06-14 2023-06-28 | 2023-07-13 2023-07-14 05:48 |
2023-06-06 12:00 | Opinion Diagnostics | 40.0% | 17.0% | 43.0% | Trump by 3.0% | 2023-06-05 2023-06-07 | 2023-06-08 2023-06-09 18:40 |
2023-03-27 00:00 | Cygnal Definitely [2] | 41.2% | 25.1% | 33.7% | Biden by 7.5% | 2023-03-26 2023-03-27 | 2023-03-30 2023-08-04 00:33 |
2023-03-27 00:00 | Cygnal Total [2] | 45.4% | 11.2% | 43.4% | Biden by 2.0% | 2023-03-26 2023-03-27 | 2023-03-30 2023-03-31 00:41 |
2023-01-11 00:00 | Differentiators | 48.4% | 7.0% | 44.6% | Biden by 3.8% | 2023-01-09 2023-01-12 | 2023-01-26 2023-03-25 00:27 |
2022-10-28 12:00 | Emerson | 40.1% | 9.3% | 50.6% | Trump by 10.5% | 2022-10-27 2022-10-29 | 2022-11-02 2023-03-24 02:29 |
2022-10-08 00:00 | Carolina Forward | 44.0% | 12.0% | 44.0% | TIED | 2022-10-07 2022-10-08 | 2022-11-28 2023-03-24 05:25 |
2022-09-30 12:00 | SurveyUSA | 45.0% | 12.0% | 43.0% | Biden by 2.0% | 2022-09-28 2022-10-02 | 2022-10-03 2023-03-23 02:49 |
2022-09-16 00:00 | Emerson | 42.0% | 11.0% | 47.0% | Trump by 5.0% | 2022-09-15 2022-09-16 | 2022-09-20 2023-03-23 01:29 |
2022-09-09 00:00 | ECU | 44.6% | 9.3% | 46.1% | Trump by 1.5% | 2022-09-07 2022-09-10 | 2022-09-13 2023-03-22 02:58 |
2022-08-05 12:00 | Blueprint | 38.5% | 16.7% | 44.8% | Trump by 6.3% | 2022-08-04 2022-08-06 | 2022-08-09 2023-03-21 03:33 |
2022-07-23 12:00 | PEM | 40.6% | 11.4% | 48.0% | Trump by 7.5% | 2022-07-22 2022-07-24 | 2022-07-28 2023-03-21 02:39 |
2022-05-20 00:00 | ECU | 37.2% | 16.4% | 46.4% | Trump by 9.2% | 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 | 2022-05-23 2023-03-20 16:36 |
2020-11-03 12:00 | Election2020 | 48.6% | 1.5% | 49.9% | REP by 1.3% | 2020-11-03 2020-11-03 | 2020-11-03 2023-03-16 16:21 |
2016-11-08 12:00 | Election2016 | 46.2% | 4.0% | 49.8% | REP by 3.7% | 2016-11-08 2016-11-08 | 2016-11-08 2019-02-20 04:10 |
2012-11-06 12:00 | Election2012 | 48.4% | 1.3% | 50.4% | REP by 2.0% | 2012-11-06 2012-11-06 | 2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:03 |
2008-11-04 12:00 | Election2008 | 49.7% | 0.9% | 49.4% | DEM by 0.3% | 2008-11-04 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:36 |
2004-11-02 12:00 | Election2004 | 43.6% | 0.4% | 56.0% | REP by 12.4% | 2004-11-02 2004-11-02 | 2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:58 |
2000-11-07 12:00 | Election2000 | 43.2% | 0.8% | 56.0% | REP by 12.8% | 2000-11-07 2000-11-07 | 2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:38 |
1996-11-06 12:00 | Election1996 | 44.0% | 7.2% | 48.7% | REP by 4.7% | 1996-11-06 1996-11-06 | 1996-11-06 2014-02-16 17:30 |
1992-11-03 12:00 | Election1992 | 42.7% | 13.9% | 43.4% | REP by 0.8% | 1992-11-03 1992-11-03 | 1992-11-03 2014-03-17 06:35 |
1988-11-08 12:00 | Election1988 | 41.7% | 0.3% | 58.0% | REP by 16.3% | 1988-11-08 1988-11-08 | 1988-11-08 2014-05-17 19:32 |
1984-11-06 12:00 | Election1984 | 37.9% | 0.2% | 61.9% | REP by 24.0% | 1984-11-06 1984-11-06 | 1984-11-06 2014-05-24 06:45 |
1980-11-04 12:00 | Election1980 | 47.2% | 3.5% | 49.3% | REP by 2.1% | 1980-11-04 1980-11-04 | 1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:01 |
The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).
If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.
If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.
When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.
If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".
On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.
State win probabilities are calculated based on 2008-2020 data using the methodology in the January 2023 blog post titled "Prepping the Math Stuff for 2024".