2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Trump - Minnesota [10 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-11-04 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-11-08 10:13 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Clinton vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

 

Clinton Trump
 
 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-11-04 12:00

Google w/3P

35.4%

31.4%

Clinton
by 4.0%

2016-11-01
2016-11-07

2016-11-08
2016-11-08 10:13

2016-11-03 00:00

CVoter

49.5%

46.2%

Clinton
by 3.3%

2016-10-30
2016-11-06

2016-11-07
2016-11-08 06:55

2016-11-01 12:00

SurveyMonkey EM w/3P

46.0%

38.0%

Clinton
by 8.0%

2016-10-29
2016-11-04

2016-11-05
2016-11-05 20:27

2016-10-30 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

49.4%

40.9%

Clinton
by 8.5%

2016-10-23
2016-11-05

2016-11-06
2016-11-07 17:09

2016-10-28 12:00

Google w/3P

34.8%

28.6%

Clinton
by 6.2%

2016-10-25
2016-10-31

2016-11-01
2016-11-02 19:48

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-10-28 00:00

Ipsos

42.4%

37.0%

Clinton
by 5.4%

2016-10-21
2016-11-03

2016-11-04
2016-11-06 00:12

2016-10-26 12:00

CVoter

49.8%

47.0%

Clinton
by 2.8%

2016-10-23
2016-10-29

2016-10-31
2016-11-03 00:01

2016-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey EM w/3P

47.0%

37.0%

Clinton
by 10.0%

2016-10-20
2016-10-28

2016-10-28
2016-10-29 15:36

2016-10-24 00:00

SurveyUSA w/4P

49.0%

39.0%

Clinton
by 10.0%

2016-10-22
2016-10-25

2016-10-26
2016-10-31 07:18

2016-10-23 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

48.8%

42.4%

Clinton
by 6.4%

2016-10-16
2016-10-29

2016-10-30
2016-10-31 00:04

2016-10-22 12:00

Google w/3P

36.6%

29.9%

Clinton
by 6.8%

2016-10-20
2016-10-24

2016-10-25
2016-10-30 15:36

2016-10-21 12:00

Mason-Dixon w/4P

47.0%

39.0%

Clinton
by 8.0%

2016-10-20
2016-10-22

2016-10-24
2016-10-27 04:50

2016-10-21 00:00

CCES w/4P

42.3%

35.9%

Clinton
by 6.4%

2016-10-04
2016-11-06

2016-11-07
2016-11-08 03:00

2016-10-21 00:00

Ipsos

40.6%

37.4%

Clinton
by 3.1%

2016-10-14
2016-10-27

2016-10-28
2016-10-31 04:23

2016-10-20 00:00

CVoter

50.1%

46.6%

Clinton
by 3.5%

2016-10-16
2016-10-23

2016-10-24
2016-10-29 21:01

2016-10-17 12:00

Google w/3P

36.0%

28.7%

Clinton
by 7.2%

2016-10-15
2016-10-19

2016-10-20
2016-10-23 15:31

2016-10-16 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

48.4%

41.8%

Clinton
by 6.6%

2016-10-09
2016-10-22

2016-10-23
2016-10-25 21:19

2016-10-14 00:00

Ipsos

44.1%

32.4%

Clinton
by 11.8%

2016-10-07
2016-10-20

2016-10-22
2016-10-23 03:29

2016-10-13 00:00

CVoter

50.9%

45.7%

Clinton
by 5.2%

2016-10-09
2016-10-16

2016-10-17
2016-10-19 09:51

2016-10-12 12:00

Google w/3P

35.7%

30.3%

Clinton
by 5.4%

2016-10-10
2016-10-14

2016-10-15
2016-10-19 04:56

2016-10-09 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

48.6%

41.3%

Clinton
by 7.3%

2016-10-02
2016-10-15

2016-10-16
2016-10-25 16:40

2016-10-07 00:00

Ipsos

42.7%

35.8%

Clinton
by 6.9%

2016-09-30
2016-10-13

2016-10-15
2016-10-16 02:18

2016-10-07 00:00

Google w/3P

39.0%

25.4%

Clinton
by 13.6%

2016-10-04
2016-10-09

2016-10-10
2016-10-11 08:03

2016-10-06 00:00

CVoter

50.6%

45.3%

Clinton
by 5.3%

2016-10-02
2016-10-09

2016-10-10
2016-10-12 20:28

2016-10-02 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

49.1%

42.0%

Clinton
by 7.1%

2016-09-25
2016-10-08

2016-10-09
2016-10-25 01:06

2016-09-30 12:00

Google w/3P

37.9%

28.4%

Clinton
by 9.5%

2016-09-27
2016-10-03

2016-10-04
2016-10-06 18:00

2016-09-30 00:00

Ipsos

42.0%

37.6%

Clinton
by 4.5%

2016-09-23
2016-10-06

2016-10-10
2016-10-12 05:17

2016-09-26 00:00

CVoter

49.4%

47.0%

Clinton
by 2.4%

2016-09-19
2016-10-02

2016-10-03
2016-10-04 16:49

2016-09-25 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

48.6%

43.1%

Clinton
by 5.5%

2016-09-18
2016-10-01

2016-10-02
2016-10-24 17:16

2016-09-24 00:00

Google w/3P

37.5%

28.2%

Clinton
by 9.2%

2016-09-21
2016-09-26

2016-09-27
2016-09-29 22:43

2016-09-23 12:00

Gravis w/4P

43.0%

43.0%

TIED

2016-09-23
2016-09-23

2016-09-25
2016-09-27 14:40

2016-09-23 00:00

Ipsos

42.8%

34.6%

Clinton
by 8.2%

2016-09-16
2016-09-29

2016-10-03
2016-10-05 19:23

2016-09-19 00:00

CVoter

50.1%

46.0%

Clinton
by 4.1%

2016-09-12
2016-09-25

2016-09-26
2016-09-28 14:55

2016-09-18 12:00

SurveyUSA [2]

49.0%

43.0%

Clinton
by 6.0%

2016-09-16
2016-09-20

2016-09-25
2016-09-27 06:45

2016-09-18 12:00

SurveyUSA w/4P [2]

46.0%

39.0%

Clinton
by 7.0%

2016-09-16
2016-09-20

2016-09-25
2016-09-27 06:42

2016-09-17 12:00

Google w/3P

37.2%

26.9%

Clinton
by 10.4%

2016-09-14
2016-09-20

2016-09-21
2016-09-24 17:03

2016-09-16 00:00

Ipsos

42.9%

35.9%

Clinton
by 6.9%

2016-09-09
2016-09-22

2016-09-26
2016-09-28 23:37

2016-09-13 12:00

Mason-Dixon w/4P

44.0%

38.0%

Clinton
by 6.0%

2016-09-12
2016-09-14

2016-09-18
2016-09-18 20:00

2016-09-10 12:00

Google w/3P

34.5%

25.5%

Clinton
by 9.0%

2016-09-07
2016-09-13

2016-09-14
2016-09-18 15:44

2016-09-09 00:00

Ipsos

43.9%

33.8%

Clinton
by 10.2%

2016-09-02
2016-09-15

2016-09-16
2016-09-17 23:37

2016-09-03 12:00

Google w/3P

34.6%

26.9%

Clinton
by 7.8%

2016-08-31
2016-09-06

2016-09-07
2016-09-10 15:59

2016-09-02 00:00

Ipsos

41.6%

31.3%

Clinton
by 10.3%

2016-08-26
2016-09-08

2016-09-09
2016-09-12 02:01

2016-08-27 12:00

Google w/3P

38.3%

24.8%

Clinton
by 13.5%

2016-08-24
2016-08-30

2016-08-31
2016-09-10 15:55

2016-08-26 00:00

Ipsos

42.0%

33.0%

Clinton
by 9.0%

2016-08-19
2016-09-01

2016-09-02
2016-09-04 06:43

2016-08-21 00:00

WaPo w/4P [2]

41.0%

34.0%

Clinton
by 7.0%

2016-08-09
2016-09-01

2016-09-06
2016-09-07 03:46

2016-08-21 00:00

WaPo [2]

49.0%

40.0%

Clinton
by 9.0%

2016-08-09
2016-09-01

2016-09-06
2016-09-07 03:45

2016-08-20 12:00

Google w/3P

36.9%

25.0%

Clinton
by 11.9%

2016-08-17
2016-08-23

2016-08-24
2016-09-10 15:49

2016-08-19 00:00

Ipsos

44.0%

35.0%

Clinton
by 9.0%

2016-08-12
2016-08-25

2016-08-26
2016-08-27 19:23

2016-08-16 12:00

Morning Consult w/4P [2]

36.4%

34.4%

Clinton
by 2.0%

2016-08-01
2016-08-31

2016-09-08
2016-09-14 14:29

2016-08-16 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

41.6%

37.7%

Clinton
by 3.9%

2016-08-01
2016-08-31

2016-09-08
2016-09-14 14:27

2016-08-13 12:00

Google w/3P

40.7%

25.7%

Clinton
by 15.0%

2016-08-10
2016-08-16

2016-08-17
2016-09-10 15:47

2016-08-12 00:00

Ipsos

42.0%

34.0%

Clinton
by 8.0%

2016-08-05
2016-08-18

2016-08-19
2016-08-27 19:26

2016-05-16 12:00

Morning Consult

45.0%

35.2%

Clinton
by 9.8%

2016-04-01
2016-06-30

2016-07-14
2016-07-25 22:31

2016-04-26 12:00

Mason-Dixon

48.0%

35.0%

Clinton
by 13.0%

2016-04-25
2016-04-27

2016-05-01
2016-05-03 14:52

2016-02-19 00:00

Morning Consult

44.4%

38.8%

Clinton
by 5.6%

2016-01-01
2016-04-07

2016-04-13
2016-07-23 19:59

2016-01-19 12:00

Mason-Dixon

43.0%

38.0%

Clinton
by 5.0%

2016-01-18
2016-01-20

2016-01-24
2016-01-29 03:21

2015-10-31 12:00

SurveyUSA

42.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 3.0%

2015-10-29
2015-11-02

2015-11-08
2015-11-10 02:11

2015-08-01 00:00

PPP

44.0%

39.0%

Clinton
by 5.0%

2015-07-30
2015-08-02

2015-08-04
2015-08-06 05:46

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.7%

45.0%

DEM
by 7.7%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:38

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

54.1%

43.8%

DEM
by 10.2%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:07

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

51.1%

47.6%

DEM
by 3.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:23

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

47.9%

45.4%

DEM
by 2.5%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 09:54

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

51.1%

35.0%

DEM
by 16.1%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 15:38

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.5%

31.9%

DEM
by 11.6%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:27

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

52.9%

45.9%

DEM
by 7.0%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 11:09

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

49.7%

49.5%

DEM
by 0.2%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:45

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

46.5%

42.6%

DEM
by 3.9%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:00

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2016 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2016 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email abulsme@abulsme.com

 

2016 Electoral College: Intro | Tour | FAQ

 

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Tip Jar.

 

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

Page cached at 2020-03-08 05:47:34 UTC

Original calculation time was 1.055 seconds

 

Page displayed at 2024-12-09 10:46:35 UTC

Page generated in 0.055 seconds