2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Trump - Arkansas [6 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-11-04 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-11-08 08:51 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Clinton vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

 

Clinton Trump
 
 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-11-04 12:00

Google w/3P

30.8%

46.9%

Trump
by 16.0%

2016-11-01
2016-11-07

2016-11-08
2016-11-08 08:51

2016-11-03 00:00

CVoter

37.0%

57.3%

Trump
by 20.3%

2016-10-30
2016-11-06

2016-11-07
2016-11-08 06:05

2016-11-01 12:00

SurveyMonkey EM w/3P

34.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 21.0%

2016-10-29
2016-11-04

2016-11-05
2016-11-05 21:10

2016-10-30 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

37.7%

53.5%

Trump
by 15.8%

2016-10-23
2016-11-05

2016-11-06
2016-11-07 15:18

2016-10-28 12:00

Google w/3P

31.5%

36.1%

Trump
by 4.6%

2016-10-25
2016-10-31

2016-11-01
2016-11-02 18:52

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-10-26 12:00

CVoter

36.5%

58.2%

Trump
by 21.7%

2016-10-23
2016-10-29

2016-10-31
2016-11-02 22:46

2016-10-24 12:00

Ipsos

39.2%

49.6%

Trump
by 10.4%

2016-10-14
2016-11-03

2016-11-04
2016-11-05 23:37

2016-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey EM w/3P

36.0%

52.0%

Trump
by 16.0%

2016-10-20
2016-10-28

2016-10-28
2016-10-29 03:29

2016-10-23 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

37.3%

53.8%

Trump
by 16.5%

2016-10-16
2016-10-29

2016-10-30
2016-10-30 23:12

2016-10-22 12:00

Google w/3P

36.7%

38.3%

Trump
by 1.6%

2016-10-20
2016-10-24

2016-10-25
2016-10-30 14:43

2016-10-22 00:00

UArk

36.0%

59.0%

Trump
by 23.0%

2016-10-18
2016-10-25

2016-11-02
2016-11-03 19:20

2016-10-21 12:00

Hendrix w/4P

32.5%

56.0%

Trump
by 23.5%

2016-10-21
2016-10-21

2016-10-24
2016-10-27 07:24

2016-10-21 00:00

CCES w/4P

30.5%

48.0%

Trump
by 17.5%

2016-10-04
2016-11-06

2016-11-07
2016-11-08 02:18

2016-10-20 00:00

CVoter

36.8%

57.5%

Trump
by 20.7%

2016-10-16
2016-10-23

2016-10-24
2016-10-29 19:23

2016-10-17 12:00

Ipsos

34.0%

53.2%

Trump
by 19.1%

2016-10-07
2016-10-27

2016-10-28
2016-10-31 03:11

2016-10-17 12:00

Google w/3P

27.3%

44.6%

Trump
by 17.3%

2016-10-15
2016-10-19

2016-10-20
2016-10-23 07:07

2016-10-16 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

36.5%

52.2%

Trump
by 15.7%

2016-10-09
2016-10-22

2016-10-23
2016-10-25 19:17

2016-10-13 00:00

CVoter

37.4%

56.7%

Trump
by 19.3%

2016-10-09
2016-10-16

2016-10-17
2016-10-19 08:42

2016-10-12 12:00

Google w/3P

34.4%

38.1%

Trump
by 3.7%

2016-10-10
2016-10-14

2016-10-15
2016-10-19 02:28

2016-10-10 12:00

Ipsos

34.4%

52.7%

Trump
by 18.3%

2016-09-30
2016-10-20

2016-10-22
2016-10-22 23:27

2016-10-09 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

36.3%

53.5%

Trump
by 17.2%

2016-10-02
2016-10-15

2016-10-16
2016-10-25 15:49

2016-10-07 00:00

Google w/3P

34.7%

40.2%

Trump
by 5.6%

2016-10-04
2016-10-09

2016-10-10
2016-10-11 05:26

2016-10-06 00:00

CVoter

37.2%

56.1%

Trump
by 18.9%

2016-10-02
2016-10-09

2016-10-10
2016-10-12 17:36

2016-10-03 12:00

Ipsos

35.6%

52.4%

Trump
by 16.8%

2016-09-23
2016-10-13

2016-10-15
2016-10-16 01:23

2016-10-02 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

35.9%

55.6%

Trump
by 19.7%

2016-09-25
2016-10-08

2016-10-09
2016-10-24 21:26

2016-09-30 12:00

Google w/3P

29.7%

45.4%

Trump
by 15.8%

2016-09-27
2016-10-03

2016-10-04
2016-10-06 05:52

2016-09-26 12:00

Ipsos

37.9%

53.0%

Trump
by 15.1%

2016-09-16
2016-10-06

2016-10-10
2016-10-12 03:18

2016-09-26 00:00

CVoter

35.8%

58.6%

Trump
by 22.8%

2016-09-19
2016-10-02

2016-10-03
2016-10-04 04:58

2016-09-25 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

35.4%

56.6%

Trump
by 21.2%

2016-09-18
2016-10-01

2016-10-02
2016-10-24 02:34

2016-09-24 00:00

Google w/3P

28.1%

45.5%

Trump
by 17.4%

2016-09-21
2016-09-26

2016-09-27
2016-09-29 19:55

2016-09-19 12:00

Ipsos

41.3%

49.9%

Trump
by 8.6%

2016-09-09
2016-09-29

2016-10-03
2016-10-05 04:37

2016-09-19 00:00

CVoter

36.0%

57.5%

Trump
by 21.5%

2016-09-12
2016-09-25

2016-09-26
2016-09-28 05:42

2016-09-17 12:00

Google w/3P

36.4%

35.4%

Clinton
by 1.0%

2016-09-14
2016-09-20

2016-09-21
2016-09-23 15:15

2016-09-16 12:00

Hendrix w/4P

34.0%

55.0%

Trump
by 21.0%

2016-09-15
2016-09-17

2016-09-22
2016-09-23 14:42

2016-09-12 12:00

Ipsos

41.1%

49.1%

Trump
by 8.1%

2016-09-02
2016-09-22

2016-09-26
2016-09-29 05:01

2016-09-11 12:00

Emerson w/4P

29.3%

57.0%

Trump
by 27.7%

2016-09-09
2016-09-13

2016-09-15
2016-09-17 02:59

2016-09-10 12:00

Google w/3P

34.5%

35.1%

Trump
by 0.6%

2016-09-07
2016-09-13

2016-09-14
2016-09-18 19:21

2016-09-05 12:00

Ipsos

41.3%

51.3%

Trump
by 9.9%

2016-08-26
2016-09-15

2016-09-16
2016-09-17 22:43

2016-09-03 12:00

Google w/3P

33.8%

40.6%

Trump
by 6.8%

2016-08-31
2016-09-06

2016-09-07
2016-09-11 17:51

2016-08-29 12:00

Ipsos

41.4%

49.8%

Trump
by 8.4%

2016-08-19
2016-09-08

2016-09-09
2016-09-12 02:47

2016-08-27 12:00

Google w/3P

31.7%

42.4%

Trump
by 10.7%

2016-08-24
2016-08-30

2016-08-31
2016-09-11 17:49

2016-08-22 12:00

Ipsos

42.2%

47.6%

Trump
by 5.4%

2016-08-12
2016-09-01

2016-09-02
2016-09-04 08:00

2016-08-21 00:00

WaPo w/4P [2]

37.0%

46.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2016-08-09
2016-09-01

2016-09-06
2016-09-06 16:31

2016-08-21 00:00

WaPo [2]

41.0%

54.0%

Trump
by 13.0%

2016-08-09
2016-09-01

2016-09-06
2016-09-06 16:29

2016-08-20 12:00

Google w/3P

27.6%

39.6%

Trump
by 12.0%

2016-08-17
2016-08-23

2016-08-24
2016-09-11 17:48

2016-08-16 12:00

Morning Consult w/4P [2]

28.5%

44.8%

Trump
by 16.3%

2016-08-01
2016-08-31

2016-09-08
2016-09-13 14:48

2016-08-16 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

33.5%

48.6%

Trump
by 15.1%

2016-08-01
2016-08-31

2016-09-08
2016-09-13 14:46

2016-08-15 12:00

Ipsos

39.0%

48.0%

Trump
by 9.0%

2016-08-05
2016-08-25

2016-08-26
2016-08-28 05:20

2016-08-13 12:00

Google w/3P

23.6%

41.0%

Trump
by 17.4%

2016-08-10
2016-08-16

2016-08-17
2016-09-11 17:46

2016-08-08 12:00

Ipsos

40.0%

45.0%

Trump
by 5.0%

2016-07-29
2016-08-18

2016-08-19
2016-08-28 05:22

2016-06-21 12:00

Hendrix w/3P

36.0%

47.0%

Trump
by 11.0%

2016-06-21
2016-06-21

2016-06-26
2016-06-27 07:57

2016-05-16 12:00

Morning Consult

36.6%

46.7%

Trump
by 10.1%

2016-04-01
2016-06-30

2016-07-14
2016-07-25 21:40

2016-02-19 00:00

Morning Consult

37.5%

47.0%

Trump
by 9.5%

2016-01-01
2016-04-07

2016-04-13
2016-07-23 17:05

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

36.9%

60.6%

REP
by 23.7%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-21 23:08

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

38.9%

58.7%

REP
by 19.9%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-22 10:39

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

44.6%

54.3%

REP
by 9.8%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-13 23:29

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

45.9%

51.3%

REP
by 5.5%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-05 07:12

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

53.7%

36.8%

DEM
by 16.9%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 08:14

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

53.2%

35.5%

DEM
by 17.7%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 02:07

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

42.2%

56.4%

REP
by 14.2%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 03:18

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

38.3%

60.5%

REP
by 22.2%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-21 06:18

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

47.5%

48.1%

REP
by 0.6%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 17:14

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

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Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

 

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