2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Kasich - New Jersey [14 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-04-05 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-07-25 20:05 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Clinton vs Kasich National Summary

 

Poll Average

 

Clinton Kasich
 
 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonKasichMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-04-05 00:00

Rutgers

43.0%

43.0%

TIED

2016-04-01
2016-04-08

2016-04-18
2016-04-19 02:37

2016-02-19 00:00

Morning Consult

42.9%

36.9%

Clinton
by 6.0%

2016-01-01
2016-04-07

2016-04-13
2016-07-25 20:05

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

58.4%

40.6%

DEM
by 17.8%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:48

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

57.3%

41.7%

DEM
by 15.6%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:32

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

52.9%

46.2%

DEM
by 6.7%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:54

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonKasichMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

56.1%

40.3%

DEM
by 15.8%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:30

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

53.7%

35.9%

DEM
by 17.9%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 17:06

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

43.0%

40.6%

DEM
by 2.4%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:23

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

42.6%

56.2%

REP
by 13.6%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:24

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

39.2%

60.1%

REP
by 20.9%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:37

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

38.6%

52.0%

REP
by 13.4%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:55

 

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

 

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If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email abulsme@abulsme.com

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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