2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Cruz - Pennsylvania [20 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-04-19 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-09-20 06:53 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Clinton vs Cruz National Summary

 

Poll Average

 

Clinton Cruz
 
 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonCruzMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-04-19 12:00

Marist

52.0%

41.0%

Clinton
by 11.0%

2016-04-18
2016-04-20

2016-04-24
2016-04-25 06:04

2016-04-02 00:00

Quinnipiac

43.0%

43.0%

TIED

2016-03-30
2016-04-04

2016-04-06
2016-04-08 14:55

2016-03-17 12:00

F&M

45.0%

35.0%

Clinton
by 10.0%

2016-03-14
2016-03-20

2016-03-24
2016-03-24 08:06

2016-03-06 12:00

Mercyhurst

45.0%

42.0%

Clinton
by 3.0%

2016-03-01
2016-03-11

2016-03-14
2016-03-15 05:54

2016-03-02 00:00

Harper

48.0%

37.0%

Clinton
by 11.0%

2016-03-01
2016-03-02

2016-03-09
2016-03-11 15:20

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonCruzMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-02-19 00:00

Morning Consult

45.7%

36.8%

Clinton
by 8.9%

2016-01-01
2016-04-07

2016-04-13
2016-07-25 00:48

2016-02-14 00:00

Robert Morris

45.7%

39.9%

Clinton
by 5.8%

2016-02-11
2016-02-16

2016-02-18
2016-09-20 06:53

2015-10-10 00:00

PPP

46.0%

40.0%

Clinton
by 6.0%

2015-10-08
2015-10-11

2015-10-15
2015-10-16 08:17

2015-06-10 00:00

Quinnipiac

47.0%

40.0%

Clinton
by 7.0%

2015-06-04
2015-06-15

2015-06-17
2015-06-20 16:10

2015-05-23 00:00

PPP

49.0%

41.0%

Clinton
by 8.0%

2015-05-21
2015-05-24

2015-05-28
2015-05-30 20:01

2015-03-23 00:00

Quinnipiac

48.0%

39.0%

Clinton
by 9.0%

2015-03-17
2015-03-28

2015-03-31
2015-04-01 03:49

2014-05-31 12:00

PPP

53.0%

34.0%

Clinton
by 19.0%

2014-05-30
2014-06-01

2014-06-05
2014-06-05 18:27

2014-02-22 00:00

Quinnipiac

54.0%

34.0%

Clinton
by 20.0%

2014-02-19
2014-02-24

2014-02-27
2014-03-02 08:51

2013-12-14 00:00

Quinnipiac

54.0%

36.0%

Clinton
by 18.0%

2013-12-11
2013-12-16

2013-12-19
2013-12-20 02:31

2013-11-24 00:00

PPP

53.0%

41.0%

Clinton
by 12.0%

2013-11-22
2013-11-25

2013-11-27
2014-05-09 22:46

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

52.0%

46.6%

DEM
by 5.4%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:08

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

54.5%

44.2%

DEM
by 10.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-05 08:39

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

50.9%

48.4%

DEM
by 2.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:04

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

50.6%

46.4%

DEM
by 4.2%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:47

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

49.2%

40.0%

DEM
by 9.2%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 19:43

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

45.2%

36.1%

DEM
by 9.0%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 06:41

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

48.4%

50.7%

REP
by 2.3%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 19:47

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

46.0%

53.3%

REP
by 7.4%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 06:55

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

42.5%

49.6%

REP
by 7.1%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:10

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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