2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Cruz - Montana [3 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-02-19 00:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-07-24 20:32 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Clinton vs Cruz National Summary

 

Poll Average

 

Clinton Cruz
 
 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonCruzMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-02-19 00:00

Morning Consult

34.7%

48.1%

Cruz
by 13.4%

2016-01-01
2016-04-07

2016-04-13
2016-07-24 20:32

2015-11-20 00:00

MSU-Billings

30.6%

55.9%

Cruz
by 25.3%

2015-11-16
2015-11-23

2015-12-07
2015-12-08 09:15

2014-11-25 00:00

Gravis

39.0%

52.0%

Cruz
by 13.0%

2014-11-24
2014-11-25

2014-12-01
2014-12-01 17:53

2013-11-16 12:00

PPP

39.0%

50.0%

Cruz
by 11.0%

2013-11-15
2013-11-17

2013-11-21
2014-01-31 00:32

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

41.7%

55.4%

REP
by 13.7%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 02:41

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonCruzMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

47.3%

49.5%

REP
by 2.3%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-09-30 03:16

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

38.6%

59.1%

REP
by 20.5%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 06:29

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

33.4%

58.4%

REP
by 25.1%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 10:00

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

41.2%

44.1%

REP
by 2.9%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-16 15:41

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

37.6%

35.1%

DEM
by 2.5%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 03:33

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

46.2%

52.1%

REP
by 5.9%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 12:37

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

38.2%

60.5%

REP
by 22.3%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-22 03:51

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

32.4%

56.8%

REP
by 24.4%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 18:04

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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