2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Trump - Vermont [3 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-11-04 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-11-08 11:31 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:  Best Polled:||
Democrat: Republican: State: History Shown in Graph: 

Switch to Clinton vs Trump National Summary

 

Poll Average

 

Clinton Trump
 
 

 

Polls Used in Average

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-11-04 12:00

Google w/3P

52.1%

18.9%

Clinton
by 33.3%

2016-11-01
2016-11-07

2016-11-08
2016-11-08 11:31

2016-11-03 00:00

CVoter

62.2%

33.3%

Clinton
by 28.9%

2016-10-30
2016-11-06

2016-11-07
2016-11-08 07:50

2016-11-01 12:00

SurveyMonkey EM w/3P

59.0%

25.0%

Clinton
by 34.0%

2016-10-29
2016-11-04

2016-11-05
2016-11-05 21:17

2016-10-30 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

58.7%

32.2%

Clinton
by 26.5%

2016-10-23
2016-11-05

2016-11-06
2016-11-07 18:06

2016-10-28 12:00

Google w/3P

57.1%

17.1%

Clinton
by 40.0%

2016-10-25
2016-10-31

2016-11-01
2016-11-02 22:14

 

Older Polls

 

Middate/TimePollsterClintonTrumpMarginStart/EndReleased/Entered

2016-10-26 12:00

CVoter

62.7%

33.8%

Clinton
by 28.9%

2016-10-23
2016-10-29

2016-10-31
2016-11-03 03:14

2016-10-25 12:00

RRH w/4P

52.0%

26.0%

Clinton
by 26.0%

2016-10-24
2016-10-26

2016-10-28
2016-10-31 10:19

2016-10-24 12:00

SurveyMonkey EM w/3P

53.0%

25.0%

Clinton
by 28.0%

2016-10-20
2016-10-28

2016-10-28
2016-10-29 18:04

2016-10-23 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

56.3%

34.6%

Clinton
by 21.7%

2016-10-16
2016-10-29

2016-10-30
2016-10-31 02:30

2016-10-22 12:00

Google w/3P

55.0%

14.8%

Clinton
by 40.2%

2016-10-20
2016-10-24

2016-10-25
2016-10-30 17:51

2016-10-21 00:00

CCES w/4P

40.5%

24.5%

Clinton
by 16.0%

2016-10-04
2016-11-06

2016-11-07
2016-11-08 03:57

2016-10-21 00:00

Braun w/4P

50.0%

22.0%

Clinton
by 28.0%

2016-10-19
2016-10-22

2016-10-26
2016-10-30 02:52

2016-10-20 00:00

CVoter

63.0%

33.5%

Clinton
by 29.5%

2016-10-16
2016-10-23

2016-10-24
2016-10-30 01:53

2016-10-17 12:00

Google w/3P

48.2%

21.5%

Clinton
by 26.7%

2016-10-15
2016-10-19

2016-10-20
2016-10-23 17:31

2016-10-16 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

57.5%

30.0%

Clinton
by 27.5%

2016-10-09
2016-10-22

2016-10-23
2016-10-25 23:10

2016-10-13 00:00

CVoter

63.1%

32.8%

Clinton
by 30.3%

2016-10-09
2016-10-16

2016-10-17
2016-10-19 10:52

2016-10-12 12:00

Google w/3P

65.9%

10.8%

Clinton
by 55.2%

2016-10-10
2016-10-14

2016-10-15
2016-10-19 07:17

2016-10-09 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

58.7%

30.2%

Clinton
by 28.5%

2016-10-02
2016-10-15

2016-10-16
2016-10-25 17:35

2016-10-07 00:00

Castleton

45.0%

17.0%

Clinton
by 28.0%

2016-09-29
2016-10-14

2016-10-19
2016-10-19 15:29

2016-10-07 00:00

Google w/3P

57.0%

16.1%

Clinton
by 40.9%

2016-10-04
2016-10-09

2016-10-10
2016-10-11 18:22

2016-10-06 00:00

CVoter

62.2%

33.3%

Clinton
by 28.9%

2016-10-02
2016-10-09

2016-10-10
2016-10-13 04:56

2016-10-02 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

56.4%

33.9%

Clinton
by 22.5%

2016-09-25
2016-10-08

2016-10-09
2016-10-25 02:16

2016-09-30 12:00

Google w/3P

44.4%

27.3%

Clinton
by 17.1%

2016-09-27
2016-10-03

2016-10-04
2016-10-07 16:00

2016-09-26 12:00

Ipsos

46.3%

21.3%

Clinton
by 25.1%

2016-09-16
2016-10-06

2016-10-10
2016-10-12 08:02

2016-09-26 00:00

CVoter

61.0%

35.4%

Clinton
by 25.6%

2016-09-19
2016-10-02

2016-10-03
2016-10-05 00:10

2016-09-25 00:00

YouGov EM w/4P

55.8%

33.9%

Clinton
by 21.9%

2016-09-18
2016-10-01

2016-10-02
2016-10-24 18:11

2016-09-24 00:00

Google w/3P

48.3%

28.2%

Clinton
by 20.1%

2016-09-21
2016-09-26

2016-09-27
2016-09-30 04:18

2016-09-19 00:00

CVoter

60.4%

35.7%

Clinton
by 24.7%

2016-09-12
2016-09-25

2016-09-26
2016-09-28 17:05

2016-09-17 12:00

Google w/3P

44.0%

18.6%

Clinton
by 25.4%

2016-09-14
2016-09-20

2016-09-21
2016-09-25 19:00

2016-09-10 12:00

Google w/3P

49.7%

18.4%

Clinton
by 31.4%

2016-09-07
2016-09-13

2016-09-14
2016-09-18 18:26

2016-09-04 00:00

Emerson w/4P

47.4%

25.7%

Clinton
by 21.7%

2016-09-02
2016-09-05

2016-09-07
2016-09-07 17:04

2016-09-03 12:00

Google w/3P

43.0%

12.6%

Clinton
by 30.4%

2016-08-31
2016-09-06

2016-09-07
2016-09-11 18:02

2016-08-27 12:00

Google w/3P

50.2%

18.1%

Clinton
by 32.1%

2016-08-24
2016-08-30

2016-08-31
2016-09-11 18:00

2016-08-21 00:00

WaPo w/4P [2]

45.0%

24.0%

Clinton
by 21.0%

2016-08-09
2016-09-01

2016-09-06
2016-09-07 14:12

2016-08-21 00:00

WaPo [2]

56.0%

28.0%

Clinton
by 28.0%

2016-08-09
2016-09-01

2016-09-06
2016-09-07 14:10

2016-08-20 12:00

Google w/3P

42.8%

11.4%

Clinton
by 31.4%

2016-08-17
2016-08-23

2016-08-24
2016-09-11 17:59

2016-08-16 12:00

Morning Consult w/4P [2]

44.2%

28.2%

Clinton
by 16.0%

2016-08-01
2016-08-31

2016-09-08
2016-09-14 17:33

2016-08-16 12:00

Morning Consult [2]

48.9%

31.5%

Clinton
by 17.4%

2016-08-01
2016-08-31

2016-09-08
2016-09-14 17:32

2016-08-13 12:00

Google w/3P

59.9%

9.5%

Clinton
by 50.4%

2016-08-10
2016-08-16

2016-08-17
2016-09-11 17:55

2016-07-17 12:00

VPR w/3P

39.0%

17.0%

Clinton
by 22.0%

2016-07-11
2016-07-23

2016-07-27
2016-07-29 08:50

2016-06-28 00:00

FM3 w/3P

39.0%

24.0%

Clinton
by 15.0%

2016-06-26
2016-06-29

2016-07-07
2016-07-10 18:37

2016-05-16 12:00

Morning Consult

48.5%

32.1%

Clinton
by 16.4%

2016-04-01
2016-06-30

2016-07-14
2016-07-25 23:30

2016-02-19 00:00

Morning Consult

54.5%

30.6%

Clinton
by 23.9%

2016-01-01
2016-04-07

2016-04-13
2016-07-23 21:26

2012-11-06 12:00

Election2012

66.6%

31.0%

DEM
by 35.6%

2012-11-06
2012-11-06

2012-11-06
2013-09-22 05:15

2008-11-04 12:00

Election2008

67.5%

30.5%

DEM
by 37.0%

2008-11-04
2008-11-04

2008-11-04
2013-10-06 03:15

2004-11-02 12:00

Election2004

58.9%

38.8%

DEM
by 20.1%

2004-11-02
2004-11-02

2004-11-02
2013-10-14 07:14

2000-11-07 12:00

Election2000

50.6%

40.7%

DEM
by 9.9%

2000-11-07
2000-11-07

2000-11-07
2013-11-10 11:09

1996-11-06 12:00

Election1996

53.4%

31.1%

DEM
by 22.3%

1996-11-06
1996-11-06

1996-11-06
2014-02-18 15:47

1992-11-03 12:00

Election1992

46.1%

30.4%

DEM
by 15.7%

1992-11-03
1992-11-03

1992-11-03
2014-03-17 07:03

1988-11-08 12:00

Election1988

47.6%

51.1%

REP
by 3.5%

1988-11-08
1988-11-08

1988-11-08
2014-05-17 20:04

1984-11-06 12:00

Election1984

40.8%

57.9%

REP
by 17.1%

1984-11-06
1984-11-06

1984-11-06
2014-05-24 07:12

1980-11-04 12:00

Election1980

38.4%

44.4%

REP
by 6.0%

1980-11-04
1980-11-04

1980-11-04
2014-10-17 19:27

 

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

 

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

 

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

 

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