2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Trump - Vermont [3 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-11-04 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-11-08 11:31 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Clinton vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Clinton		Trump

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2016-11-04 12:00	Google w/3P	52.1%	18.9%	Clinton by 33.3%	2016-11-01 2016-11-07	2016-11-08 2016-11-08 11:31
2016-11-03 00:00	CVoter	62.2%	33.3%	Clinton by 28.9%	2016-10-30 2016-11-06	2016-11-07 2016-11-08 07:50
2016-11-01 12:00	SurveyMonkey EM w/3P	59.0%	25.0%	Clinton by 34.0%	2016-10-29 2016-11-04	2016-11-05 2016-11-05 21:17
2016-10-30 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	58.7%	32.2%	Clinton by 26.5%	2016-10-23 2016-11-05	2016-11-06 2016-11-07 18:06
2016-10-28 12:00	Google w/3P	57.1%	17.1%	Clinton by 40.0%	2016-10-25 2016-10-31	2016-11-01 2016-11-02 22:14

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2016-10-26 12:00	CVoter	62.7%	33.8%	Clinton by 28.9%	2016-10-23 2016-10-29	2016-10-31 2016-11-03 03:14
2016-10-25 12:00	RRH w/4P	52.0%	26.0%	Clinton by 26.0%	2016-10-24 2016-10-26	2016-10-28 2016-10-31 10:19
2016-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey EM w/3P	53.0%	25.0%	Clinton by 28.0%	2016-10-20 2016-10-28	2016-10-28 2016-10-29 18:04
2016-10-23 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	56.3%	34.6%	Clinton by 21.7%	2016-10-16 2016-10-29	2016-10-30 2016-10-31 02:30
2016-10-22 12:00	Google w/3P	55.0%	14.8%	Clinton by 40.2%	2016-10-20 2016-10-24	2016-10-25 2016-10-30 17:51
2016-10-21 00:00	CCES w/4P	40.5%	24.5%	Clinton by 16.0%	2016-10-04 2016-11-06	2016-11-07 2016-11-08 03:57
2016-10-21 00:00	Braun w/4P	50.0%	22.0%	Clinton by 28.0%	2016-10-19 2016-10-22	2016-10-26 2016-10-30 02:52
2016-10-20 00:00	CVoter	63.0%	33.5%	Clinton by 29.5%	2016-10-16 2016-10-23	2016-10-24 2016-10-30 01:53
2016-10-17 12:00	Google w/3P	48.2%	21.5%	Clinton by 26.7%	2016-10-15 2016-10-19	2016-10-20 2016-10-23 17:31
2016-10-16 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	57.5%	30.0%	Clinton by 27.5%	2016-10-09 2016-10-22	2016-10-23 2016-10-25 23:10
2016-10-13 00:00	CVoter	63.1%	32.8%	Clinton by 30.3%	2016-10-09 2016-10-16	2016-10-17 2016-10-19 10:52
2016-10-12 12:00	Google w/3P	65.9%	10.8%	Clinton by 55.2%	2016-10-10 2016-10-14	2016-10-15 2016-10-19 07:17
2016-10-09 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	58.7%	30.2%	Clinton by 28.5%	2016-10-02 2016-10-15	2016-10-16 2016-10-25 17:35
2016-10-07 00:00	Castleton	45.0%	17.0%	Clinton by 28.0%	2016-09-29 2016-10-14	2016-10-19 2016-10-19 15:29
2016-10-07 00:00	Google w/3P	57.0%	16.1%	Clinton by 40.9%	2016-10-04 2016-10-09	2016-10-10 2016-10-11 18:22
2016-10-06 00:00	CVoter	62.2%	33.3%	Clinton by 28.9%	2016-10-02 2016-10-09	2016-10-10 2016-10-13 04:56
2016-10-02 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	56.4%	33.9%	Clinton by 22.5%	2016-09-25 2016-10-08	2016-10-09 2016-10-25 02:16
2016-09-30 12:00	Google w/3P	44.4%	27.3%	Clinton by 17.1%	2016-09-27 2016-10-03	2016-10-04 2016-10-07 16:00
2016-09-26 12:00	Ipsos	46.3%	21.3%	Clinton by 25.1%	2016-09-16 2016-10-06	2016-10-10 2016-10-12 08:02
2016-09-26 00:00	CVoter	61.0%	35.4%	Clinton by 25.6%	2016-09-19 2016-10-02	2016-10-03 2016-10-05 00:10
2016-09-25 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	55.8%	33.9%	Clinton by 21.9%	2016-09-18 2016-10-01	2016-10-02 2016-10-24 18:11
2016-09-24 00:00	Google w/3P	48.3%	28.2%	Clinton by 20.1%	2016-09-21 2016-09-26	2016-09-27 2016-09-30 04:18
2016-09-19 00:00	CVoter	60.4%	35.7%	Clinton by 24.7%	2016-09-12 2016-09-25	2016-09-26 2016-09-28 17:05
2016-09-17 12:00	Google w/3P	44.0%	18.6%	Clinton by 25.4%	2016-09-14 2016-09-20	2016-09-21 2016-09-25 19:00
2016-09-10 12:00	Google w/3P	49.7%	18.4%	Clinton by 31.4%	2016-09-07 2016-09-13	2016-09-14 2016-09-18 18:26
2016-09-04 00:00	Emerson w/4P	47.4%	25.7%	Clinton by 21.7%	2016-09-02 2016-09-05	2016-09-07 2016-09-07 17:04
2016-09-03 12:00	Google w/3P	43.0%	12.6%	Clinton by 30.4%	2016-08-31 2016-09-06	2016-09-07 2016-09-11 18:02
2016-08-27 12:00	Google w/3P	50.2%	18.1%	Clinton by 32.1%	2016-08-24 2016-08-30	2016-08-31 2016-09-11 18:00
2016-08-21 00:00	WaPo w/4P [2]	45.0%	24.0%	Clinton by 21.0%	2016-08-09 2016-09-01	2016-09-06 2016-09-07 14:12
2016-08-21 00:00	WaPo [2]	56.0%	28.0%	Clinton by 28.0%	2016-08-09 2016-09-01	2016-09-06 2016-09-07 14:10
2016-08-20 12:00	Google w/3P	42.8%	11.4%	Clinton by 31.4%	2016-08-17 2016-08-23	2016-08-24 2016-09-11 17:59
2016-08-16 12:00	Morning Consult w/4P [2]	44.2%	28.2%	Clinton by 16.0%	2016-08-01 2016-08-31	2016-09-08 2016-09-14 17:33
2016-08-16 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	48.9%	31.5%	Clinton by 17.4%	2016-08-01 2016-08-31	2016-09-08 2016-09-14 17:32
2016-08-13 12:00	Google w/3P	59.9%	9.5%	Clinton by 50.4%	2016-08-10 2016-08-16	2016-08-17 2016-09-11 17:55
2016-07-17 12:00	VPR w/3P	39.0%	17.0%	Clinton by 22.0%	2016-07-11 2016-07-23	2016-07-27 2016-07-29 08:50
2016-06-28 00:00	FM3 w/3P	39.0%	24.0%	Clinton by 15.0%	2016-06-26 2016-06-29	2016-07-07 2016-07-10 18:37
2016-05-16 12:00	Morning Consult	48.5%	32.1%	Clinton by 16.4%	2016-04-01 2016-06-30	2016-07-14 2016-07-25 23:30
2016-02-19 00:00	Morning Consult	54.5%	30.6%	Clinton by 23.9%	2016-01-01 2016-04-07	2016-04-13 2016-07-23 21:26
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	66.6%	31.0%	DEM by 35.6%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 05:15
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	67.5%	30.5%	DEM by 37.0%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-10-06 03:15
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	58.9%	38.8%	DEM by 20.1%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 07:14
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	50.6%	40.7%	DEM by 9.9%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 11:09
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	53.4%	31.1%	DEM by 22.3%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-18 15:47
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	46.1%	30.4%	DEM by 15.7%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 07:03
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	47.6%	51.1%	REP by 3.5%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 20:04
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	40.8%	57.9%	REP by 17.1%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-24 07:12
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	38.4%	44.4%	REP by 6.0%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 19:27

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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2016 Electoral College: Intro | Tour | FAQ

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

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