2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Trump - Montana [3 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-11-04 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-11-08 10:21 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Clinton vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Clinton		Trump

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2016-11-04 12:00	Google w/3P	34.6%	35.0%	Trump by 0.3%	2016-11-01 2016-11-07	2016-11-08 2016-11-08 10:21
2016-11-03 00:00	CVoter	40.7%	53.7%	Trump by 13.0%	2016-10-30 2016-11-06	2016-11-07 2016-11-08 07:03
2016-11-01 12:00	SurveyMonkey EM w/3P	32.0%	53.0%	Trump by 21.0%	2016-10-29 2016-11-04	2016-11-05 2016-11-05 20:02
2016-10-30 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	35.5%	52.2%	Trump by 16.7%	2016-10-23 2016-11-05	2016-11-06 2016-11-07 17:20
2016-10-28 12:00	Google w/3P	27.1%	39.3%	Trump by 12.2%	2016-10-25 2016-10-31	2016-11-01 2016-11-02 19:55

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2016-10-26 12:00	CVoter	40.5%	54.9%	Trump by 14.4%	2016-10-23 2016-10-29	2016-10-31 2016-11-03 00:09
2016-10-24 12:00	Ipsos	33.5%	51.6%	Trump by 18.1%	2016-10-14 2016-11-03	2016-11-04 2016-11-06 00:22
2016-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey EM w/3P	35.0%	51.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2016-10-20 2016-10-28	2016-10-28 2016-10-29 15:47
2016-10-23 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	36.9%	52.2%	Trump by 15.3%	2016-10-16 2016-10-29	2016-10-30 2016-10-31 00:22
2016-10-22 12:00	Google w/3P	27.8%	39.0%	Trump by 11.2%	2016-10-20 2016-10-24	2016-10-25 2016-10-30 15:44
2016-10-21 00:00	CCES w/4P	31.7%	44.1%	Trump by 12.4%	2016-10-04 2016-11-06	2016-11-07 2016-11-08 03:06
2016-10-20 00:00	CVoter	40.7%	54.7%	Trump by 14.0%	2016-10-16 2016-10-23	2016-10-24 2016-10-29 21:09
2016-10-17 12:00	Ipsos	31.6%	47.8%	Trump by 16.2%	2016-10-07 2016-10-27	2016-10-28 2016-10-31 04:31
2016-10-17 12:00	Google w/3P	38.2%	34.9%	Clinton by 3.3%	2016-10-15 2016-10-19	2016-10-20 2016-10-23 15:39
2016-10-16 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	37.4%	51.1%	Trump by 13.7%	2016-10-09 2016-10-22	2016-10-23 2016-10-25 22:04
2016-10-13 00:00	CVoter	40.6%	54.5%	Trump by 13.9%	2016-10-09 2016-10-16	2016-10-17 2016-10-19 09:57
2016-10-12 12:00	Google w/3P	27.8%	28.3%	Trump by 0.5%	2016-10-10 2016-10-14	2016-10-15 2016-10-19 05:59
2016-10-11 12:00	Mason-Dixon w/3P	36.0%	46.0%	Trump by 10.0%	2016-10-10 2016-10-12	2016-10-15 2016-10-15 20:39
2016-10-10 12:00	Ipsos	31.7%	50.8%	Trump by 19.1%	2016-09-30 2016-10-20	2016-10-22 2016-10-23 03:36
2016-10-09 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	35.5%	51.4%	Trump by 15.9%	2016-10-02 2016-10-15	2016-10-16 2016-10-25 16:48
2016-10-07 00:00	MSU w/4P	27.0%	43.0%	Trump by 16.0%	2016-10-03 2016-10-10	2016-10-26 2016-10-27 05:40
2016-10-07 00:00	Google w/3P	32.1%	40.8%	Trump by 8.7%	2016-10-04 2016-10-09	2016-10-10 2016-10-11 15:51
2016-10-06 00:00	CVoter	40.3%	54.2%	Trump by 13.9%	2016-10-02 2016-10-09	2016-10-10 2016-10-12 22:30
2016-10-03 12:00	Ipsos	33.9%	54.2%	Trump by 20.2%	2016-09-23 2016-10-13	2016-10-15 2016-10-16 02:26
2016-10-02 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	36.6%	51.9%	Trump by 15.3%	2016-09-25 2016-10-08	2016-10-09 2016-10-25 01:17
2016-09-30 12:00	Google w/3P	31.1%	38.0%	Trump by 6.9%	2016-09-27 2016-10-03	2016-10-04 2016-10-06 22:50
2016-09-26 12:00	Ipsos	34.3%	58.0%	Trump by 23.7%	2016-09-16 2016-10-06	2016-10-10 2016-10-12 06:39
2016-09-26 00:00	CVoter	38.8%	57.2%	Trump by 18.4%	2016-09-19 2016-10-02	2016-10-03 2016-10-04 19:25
2016-09-25 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	36.7%	53.8%	Trump by 17.1%	2016-09-18 2016-10-01	2016-10-02 2016-10-24 17:24
2016-09-24 00:00	Google w/3P	32.2%	36.3%	Trump by 4.2%	2016-09-21 2016-09-26	2016-09-27 2016-09-29 22:52
2016-09-19 12:00	Ipsos	39.8%	53.5%	Trump by 13.7%	2016-09-09 2016-09-29	2016-10-03 2016-10-05 19:36
2016-09-19 00:00	CVoter	37.7%	57.7%	Trump by 20.0%	2016-09-12 2016-09-25	2016-09-26 2016-09-28 15:07
2016-09-17 12:00	Google w/3P	32.8%	28.9%	Clinton by 3.8%	2016-09-14 2016-09-20	2016-09-21 2016-09-24 17:44
2016-09-12 12:00	Ipsos	36.3%	53.6%	Trump by 17.3%	2016-09-02 2016-09-22	2016-09-26 2016-09-28 23:45
2016-09-10 12:00	Google w/3P	27.8%	34.9%	Trump by 7.1%	2016-09-07 2016-09-13	2016-09-14 2016-09-18 18:48
2016-09-05 12:00	Ipsos	39.0%	52.3%	Trump by 13.3%	2016-08-26 2016-09-15	2016-09-16 2016-09-17 23:42
2016-09-03 12:00	Google w/3P	29.9%	32.2%	Trump by 2.4%	2016-08-31 2016-09-06	2016-09-07 2016-09-11 22:18
2016-08-29 12:00	Ipsos	29.8%	60.2%	Trump by 30.4%	2016-08-19 2016-09-08	2016-09-09 2016-09-12 02:11
2016-08-27 12:00	Google w/3P	32.4%	33.3%	Trump by 1.0%	2016-08-24 2016-08-30	2016-08-31 2016-09-11 22:16
2016-08-21 00:00	WaPo w/4P [2]	31.0%	44.0%	Trump by 13.0%	2016-08-09 2016-09-01	2016-09-06 2016-09-07 05:08
2016-08-21 00:00	WaPo [2]	38.0%	51.0%	Trump by 13.0%	2016-08-09 2016-09-01	2016-09-06 2016-09-07 05:06
2016-08-20 12:00	Google w/3P	35.9%	28.1%	Clinton by 7.8%	2016-08-17 2016-08-23	2016-08-24 2016-09-11 22:13
2016-08-16 12:00	Morning Consult w/4P [2]	30.8%	42.5%	Trump by 11.7%	2016-08-01 2016-08-31	2016-09-08 2016-09-14 14:40
2016-08-16 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	35.4%	46.0%	Trump by 10.6%	2016-08-01 2016-08-31	2016-09-08 2016-09-14 14:38
2016-08-13 12:00	Google w/3P	30.3%	33.2%	Trump by 2.9%	2016-08-10 2016-08-16	2016-08-17 2016-09-11 22:12
2016-08-08 12:00	Ipsos	40.0%	47.0%	Trump by 7.0%	2016-07-29 2016-08-18	2016-08-19 2016-08-28 05:44
2016-05-16 12:00	Morning Consult	35.8%	45.3%	Trump by 9.5%	2016-04-01 2016-06-30	2016-07-14 2016-07-25 22:43
2016-02-19 00:00	Morning Consult	35.4%	46.5%	Trump by 11.1%	2016-01-01 2016-04-07	2016-04-13 2016-07-23 20:06
2015-11-20 00:00	MSU-Billings	30.0%	51.4%	Trump by 21.4%	2015-11-16 2015-11-23	2015-12-07 2015-12-08 09:02
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	41.7%	55.4%	REP by 13.7%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:41
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	47.3%	49.5%	REP by 2.3%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-30 03:16
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	38.6%	59.1%	REP by 20.5%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 06:29
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	33.4%	58.4%	REP by 25.1%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-10 10:00
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	41.2%	44.1%	REP by 2.9%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 15:41
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	37.6%	35.1%	DEM by 2.5%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 03:33
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	46.2%	52.1%	REP by 5.9%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 12:37
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	38.2%	60.5%	REP by 22.3%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-22 03:51
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	32.4%	56.8%	REP by 24.4%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 18:04

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

Like Election Graphs on Facebook, follow @ElectionGraphs on Twitter, or read the Election 2016 blog posts for commentary and analysis when there are significant changes to this data.

For a feed of all poll updates follow @ElecCollPolls on Twitter. For more discussion of Election 2016 and other topics, listen to the Curmudgeon's Corner podcast.

If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email abulsme@abulsme.com

2016 Electoral College: Intro | Tour | FAQ

If you find this site interesting or useful, please consider visiting the Tip Jar.

The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

Page cached at 2019-09-02 21:55:51 UTC

Original calculation time was 0.723 seconds

Page displayed at 2024-11-21 20:34:38 UTC

Page generated in 0.050 seconds