2016 Electoral College

Clinton vs Trump - Hawaii [4 EV]

Most Recent Poll (middate): 2016-11-04 12:00 UTC

Last Poll Update: 2016-11-08 09:41 UTC

Post Mortem Analysis here

Nominees:

Best Polled:

Democrat:

Republican:

State:

History Shown in Graph:

Switch to Clinton vs Trump National Summary

Poll Average

Clinton		Trump

Polls Used in Average

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2016-11-04 12:00	Google w/3P	43.6%	28.7%	Clinton by 14.9%	2016-11-01 2016-11-07	2016-11-08 2016-11-08 09:41
2016-11-03 00:00	CVoter	64.8%	31.2%	Clinton by 33.6%	2016-10-30 2016-11-06	2016-11-07 2016-11-08 06:24
2016-11-01 12:00	SurveyMonkey EM w/3P	53.0%	28.0%	Clinton by 25.0%	2016-10-29 2016-11-04	2016-11-05 2016-11-05 21:20
2016-10-30 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	57.9%	31.5%	Clinton by 26.4%	2016-10-23 2016-11-05	2016-11-06 2016-11-07 15:38
2016-10-28 12:00	Google w/3P	45.2%	23.7%	Clinton by 21.6%	2016-10-25 2016-10-31	2016-11-01 2016-11-02 19:16

Older Polls

Middate/Time	Pollster	Clinton	Trump	Margin	Start/End	Released/Entered
2016-10-26 12:00	CVoter	63.9%	33.3%	Clinton by 30.6%	2016-10-23 2016-10-29	2016-10-31 2016-11-02 23:03
2016-10-24 12:00	SurveyMonkey EM w/3P	49.0%	31.0%	Clinton by 18.0%	2016-10-20 2016-10-28	2016-10-28 2016-10-29 03:56
2016-10-23 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	59.1%	31.3%	Clinton by 27.8%	2016-10-16 2016-10-29	2016-10-30 2016-10-30 23:32
2016-10-22 12:00	Google w/3P	46.7%	27.1%	Clinton by 19.6%	2016-10-20 2016-10-24	2016-10-25 2016-10-30 15:04
2016-10-21 00:00	CCES w/4P	50.3%	27.9%	Clinton by 22.4%	2016-10-04 2016-11-06	2016-11-07 2016-11-08 02:34
2016-10-20 00:00	CVoter	65.2%	32.0%	Clinton by 33.2%	2016-10-16 2016-10-23	2016-10-24 2016-10-29 19:48
2016-10-17 12:00	Google w/3P	49.0%	27.3%	Clinton by 21.7%	2016-10-15 2016-10-19	2016-10-20 2016-10-23 08:00
2016-10-16 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	60.3%	30.1%	Clinton by 30.2%	2016-10-09 2016-10-22	2016-10-23 2016-10-25 19:35
2016-10-13 00:00	CVoter	64.7%	32.5%	Clinton by 32.2%	2016-10-09 2016-10-16	2016-10-17 2016-10-19 08:57
2016-10-12 12:00	Google w/3P	51.4%	20.4%	Clinton by 31.0%	2016-10-10 2016-10-14	2016-10-15 2016-10-19 03:21
2016-10-09 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	60.1%	29.6%	Clinton by 30.5%	2016-10-02 2016-10-15	2016-10-16 2016-10-25 16:12
2016-10-07 00:00	Google w/3P	49.4%	29.2%	Clinton by 20.3%	2016-10-04 2016-10-09	2016-10-10 2016-10-11 06:55
2016-10-06 00:00	CVoter	64.4%	32.4%	Clinton by 32.0%	2016-10-02 2016-10-09	2016-10-10 2016-10-12 17:53
2016-10-02 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	59.1%	30.4%	Clinton by 28.7%	2016-09-25 2016-10-08	2016-10-09 2016-10-25 00:30
2016-09-30 12:00	Google w/3P	62.1%	17.0%	Clinton by 45.1%	2016-09-27 2016-10-03	2016-10-04 2016-10-06 07:04
2016-09-26 00:00	CVoter	63.6%	33.5%	Clinton by 30.1%	2016-09-19 2016-10-02	2016-10-03 2016-10-04 05:19
2016-09-25 00:00	YouGov EM w/4P	57.5%	32.2%	Clinton by 25.3%	2016-09-18 2016-10-01	2016-10-02 2016-10-24 05:19
2016-09-24 00:00	Google w/3P	42.4%	21.7%	Clinton by 20.7%	2016-09-21 2016-09-26	2016-09-27 2016-09-29 21:02
2016-09-19 00:00	CVoter	64.0%	32.5%	Clinton by 31.5%	2016-09-12 2016-09-25	2016-09-26 2016-09-28 06:01
2016-09-17 12:00	Google w/3P	43.2%	31.6%	Clinton by 11.6%	2016-09-14 2016-09-20	2016-09-21 2016-09-24 03:09
2016-09-10 12:00	Google w/3P	40.2%	21.3%	Clinton by 18.9%	2016-09-07 2016-09-13	2016-09-14 2016-09-18 16:29
2016-09-03 12:00	Google w/3P	47.3%	27.7%	Clinton by 19.6%	2016-08-31 2016-09-06	2016-09-07 2016-09-11 20:32
2016-08-27 12:00	Google w/3P	41.4%	23.6%	Clinton by 17.8%	2016-08-24 2016-08-30	2016-08-31 2016-09-11 20:31
2016-08-21 00:00	WaPo w/4P [2]	51.0%	25.0%	Clinton by 26.0%	2016-08-09 2016-09-01	2016-09-06 2016-09-07 02:29
2016-08-21 00:00	WaPo [2]	58.0%	28.0%	Clinton by 30.0%	2016-08-09 2016-09-01	2016-09-06 2016-09-07 02:27
2016-08-20 12:00	Google w/3P	43.0%	22.5%	Clinton by 20.5%	2016-08-17 2016-08-23	2016-08-24 2016-09-11 20:30
2016-08-16 12:00	Morning Consult w/4P [2]	47.2%	23.9%	Clinton by 23.3%	2016-08-01 2016-08-31	2016-09-08 2016-09-14 04:19
2016-08-16 12:00	Morning Consult [2]	52.8%	26.8%	Clinton by 26.0%	2016-08-01 2016-08-31	2016-09-08 2016-09-14 04:18
2016-08-13 12:00	Google w/3P	53.3%	23.0%	Clinton by 30.3%	2016-08-10 2016-08-16	2016-08-17 2016-09-11 20:28
2016-05-16 12:00	Morning Consult	49.6%	30.5%	Clinton by 19.1%	2016-04-01 2016-06-30	2016-07-14 2016-07-25 22:02
2016-02-19 00:00	Morning Consult	53.5%	29.0%	Clinton by 24.5%	2016-01-01 2016-04-07	2016-04-13 2016-07-23 17:29
2012-11-06 12:00	Election2012	70.6%	27.8%	DEM by 42.7%	2012-11-06 2012-11-06	2012-11-06 2013-09-22 02:24
2008-11-04 12:00	Election2008	71.9%	26.6%	DEM by 45.3%	2008-11-04 2008-11-04	2008-11-04 2013-09-25 05:25
2004-11-02 12:00	Election2004	54.0%	45.3%	DEM by 8.8%	2004-11-02 2004-11-02	2004-11-02 2013-10-14 05:39
2000-11-07 12:00	Election2000	55.8%	37.5%	DEM by 18.3%	2000-11-07 2000-11-07	2000-11-07 2013-11-09 06:01
1996-11-06 12:00	Election1996	56.9%	31.6%	DEM by 25.3%	1996-11-06 1996-11-06	1996-11-06 2014-02-16 08:46
1992-11-03 12:00	Election1992	48.9%	36.7%	DEM by 12.2%	1992-11-03 1992-11-03	1992-11-03 2014-03-17 02:20
1988-11-08 12:00	Election1988	54.3%	44.8%	DEM by 9.5%	1988-11-08 1988-11-08	1988-11-08 2014-05-17 08:02
1984-11-06 12:00	Election1984	43.8%	55.1%	REP by 11.3%	1984-11-06 1984-11-06	1984-11-06 2014-05-21 07:29
1980-11-04 12:00	Election1980	44.8%	42.9%	DEM by 1.9%	1980-11-04 1980-11-04	1980-11-04 2014-10-17 17:28

Election Graphs tracks state by state poll averages to estimate Electoral College results, and tracks estimates of the primary delegate races.

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If you have information on inaccuracies or omissions, please email abulsme@abulsme.com

2016 Electoral College: Intro | Tour | FAQ

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The poll average generally uses the last 5 polls (by middate).

If there is tie for the middate of the oldest poll to be included, all polls with that middate are included.

If the result is exactly on the border between categories (0%, 5% or 10% margin) older polls are pulled in one by one until the result is clearly within a category.

When there are not enough actual polls for the poll average, results from prior presidential elections are used to fill in the average.

If a pollster releases multiple results based on the same sample they are weighted so collectively they count as "1 poll".

On state detail pages this is noted by an [N], shading in the listing, and a different color data point in the graph.

Full listing of polls used on this site: HTML or pipe delimited text

Analysis for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles can be found here.

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